Article: Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Countdown: 16-20

[Seth Stohs]

More national prospect rankings are being unveiled each week. The Twins have been ranked as having one of the top two or three farm systems in all of baseball again this year. We know that the organization has some high-end, potential impact big leaguers and several of them are getting close to being promoted. Because of that, Twins Daily is going to, over the next few weeks, produce our Top 20 Twins Prospects. Today, we begin with our choices for Twins prospects 16 through 20.20. Amaurys Minier – OF/1B

Age: 19

2014 Stats (Rookie): .292/.405/.520 (.925), 11-2B, 2-3B, 8-HR, 33 RBI

ETA: 2019

 

Minier was the Twins big international signing in 2012. He got a $1.4 million signing bonus as a 16 year old from the Dominican Republic. His professional career began in 2013 with the GCL Twins where the switch-hitter hit just .214/.252/.455 (.707) in 31 games. However, he still showed his tremendous power potential with five doubles, two triples and six home runs. In the offseason, he had shoulder surgery. Few believed he would be able to stick at third base, so he began to work in the outfield and some at first base. He returned to the GCL in 2014 and was much improved. His plate discipline and his power were able to develop. Minier just turned 19 last week and should spend 2015 with the Elizabethton Twins.

 

 

19. Travis Harrison – OF

Age: 22

2014 Stats (A+): .269/.361/.365 (.726), 33-2B, 1-3B, 3-HR, 59 RBI

ETA: 2017

 

Harrison was the Twins' first of two supplemental first round picks in the 2011 draft. His career began in 2012 when he hit .301 (.845 OPS) with 21 extra base hits in Elizabethton’s short season. He moved up to Cedar Rapids in 2013 and hit .253. However, he got on base almost 37% of the time and hit 28 doubles and 15 home runs. Following that season, he made the move from third base to left field. In 2014 he played in Ft. Myers. He continued to show very good strike zone judgment. He showed doubles power in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, but the 6-1, 220 pounder hit just three home runs. Harrison will be 22 years old through the 2015 season. I suspect he’ll start the season back with the Miracle, but he should get an opportunity to move up to Chattanooga during the season. He is a solid hitter who uses the entire field. He cut his strikeout total by about 30% from the previous season in the exact same number of plate appearances. He has tremendous strength, so expect him to put up bigger power numbers as he moves up.

 

 

18. Jake Reed – RHP

Age: 22

2014 Stats (Rk/A): 3-0, 8 Saves, 0.29 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 31.0 IP, 11 H, 3 BB, 39 K

ETA: 2016

 

With the Twins fifth round pick, they drafted their fourth straight college relief pitcher. They took Jake Reed who was the closer for the University of Oregon in 2014 after two years as a starter. He signed quickly for $350K. He pitched in four games for Elizabethton and 16 more for Cedar Rapids. In all, he put up video game numbers. For his work, he received an invitation to represent the Twins in the Arizona Fall League where he gave up just one run. Reed has a fastball that sits 93-95 mph and runs in on a right-handed hitter. He also has a very sharp slider that dives away from a right-hander. He will be just 22 years old through the 2015 season. He likely will start the season in Ft. Myers but should move up to Chattanooga fairly quickly. There is a chance he could be in the big leagues in 2015.

 

 

17. Stuart Turner – C

Age: 23

2014 Stats (A+): .249/.322/.375 with 16-2B, 2-3B, 7-HR, 40 RBI

ETA: 2016

 

Turner was the Twins third round pick in 2013 out of Ole Miss. He was awarded the Johnny Bench Award as the top college catcher that season. He spent that summer in Elizabethton. After going to big league spring training, Turner skipped the Midwest League and jumped to Ft. Myers. On May 25, he was hitting just .188. From that point on, he made some adjustments and hit .282/.360/.427 with 19 of his 25 extra base hits. At 6-3 and 230 pounds, he presents a big target behind the plate. He has the trust of his pitchers and his strong arm helped him to throw out 32% of would-be base runners. He will again go to big league spring training with the Twins and should spend the season as a 23 year old at AA Chattanooga.

 

 

16. Tyler Duffey – RHP

Age: 24

2014 Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 13-3, 3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 149.1 IP, 30 BB, 113 K

ETA: 2015

 

At Rice, Duffey teamed with JT Chargois as co-closers. Duffey was the Twins fifth round pick in 2012 and pitched great in Elizabethton that summer. In 2013, he started in Cedar Rapids and quickly moved up to Ft. Myers which is where he began the 2014 season. After four starts with the Miracle, and a 3-0 record, he was moved up to New Britain. He made 18 starts with the Rock Cats and went 8-3. His season ended with three starts in Rochester where he went 2-0. As impressive, his strikeout rate rose at each level, from 5.2 to 6.8 to 9.0. Duffey’s fastball sits between 91 and 94 as a starter and 97 in the bullpen. He throws a cutter in the upper-80s. His 12-6 curveball is probably his best strikeout pitch. He’s still improving his changeup. At 6-3 and 230 pounds, Duffey gets a lot of his strength from his legs. He could go back to AA to start the 2015 season depending upon the numbers. However, if he does, he should be the first guy called up to Rochester. He was recently invited to big league camp as well.

 

 

Check back later this week for Part 2 of the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects Countdown.

 

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[Jeremy Nygaard]

Duffey and Reed are overshadowed in this organization. In any other system, these are top 10 guys with huge expectations.

[nater79a]

Duffey and Reed are overshadowed in this organization. In any other system, these are top 10 guys with huge expectations.

. 

I was just about to say the same thing, Jeremy. Think a team like the Tigers would love to have each of these guys in their system? Absolutely.

[highlander]

I could see Reed in the pen this year, that slider is NASTY

[Shane Wahl]

Top 11-15 or in every other organization besides the Cubs and Pirates. Top 8-12 in most of them.

[bird]

The Tigers have two pitching prospects (Farmer and Kubitz, also a Rice product, B-) graded a notch higher than Reed and Duffey (both C+), according to Sickels. They are the #2 and #3 prospects for them, I think. Of course, the Twins have twelve pitchers graded as high or higher than Reed and Duffey.

[markos]

I'm a big fan a Turner. Two things really obscured how well he did last year. First, the Florida State League depresses batting stats and makes them look worse than they really are. Second, his slow start had everyone down on him right away. Despite the terrible start, he still ended up with league-average production in the FSL (101 wRC+), which is pretty good for a defensive-minded catcher. I think if his season had gone in reverse - started with 3 months of .787 OPS and then struggled to finished out the year - the entire narrative would have changed and there would be more hype about him. I wished he walked more, but he did limit his strike-outs pretty well. I'm really excited to see how he does in AA this season, as he might be my sleeper pick for this coming year.

[TRex]

I must be a REALLY slow typist, as Markos beat me by 30 minutes! But anyway...

 

First off, let me STRONGLY state that this is not an anti-Garver post, I am just using his developmental trajectory for comparisons... 

 

I will also state that, as we have discussed about ABWII, there is no shame being ranked #17 on a very deep minor league system.

 

However, I don't know why there isn't more love for Stuart Turner. IMHO, I think there is even more excitement for Mitch Garver (which may be born out later in this list), who is a year older and put his numbers up at a lower level.  This really befuddles me! I understand that Garver cannot control where he is placed, but his offensive numbers are the main reason people are excited about him.

 

If nothing else, you would think Turner would be the poster-boy for those who are looking for rapid prospect advancement. Here is a player starting his first full season at High-A, in the pitching (and ballpark) friendly FSL. He played excellent defense at the games most demanding position (catcher), and started >70% of his teams games (93 games total or ~4.5 games per week). In comparison, Garver started  <50% of his teams' games at catcher (63 games total, or ~2.9 per week).

 

And while the main question about Turner entering the year was whether he would hit enough to make his defensive prowess acceptable, he performed quite well after his slow start, as Seth pointed out. While it might be hard to see how good Turner's post-May 19 .787 OPS is, consider that the top OPS in the FSL was .816 and Jorge Polanco led the non-LF/1B crowd with a .780 OPS. While still not the offensive force that Garver was, Stuart proved much more than adequate. His peripheral numbers (SO rate <20%, W rate >10%, higher OPS with RiSP) also portend future success. He even had several game-winning hits and was awarded the leagues 'offensive player of the week'  the final week of the FSL season.

 

I personally think that, given positional bias, his future WAR is likely to be greater than Rosario, Polanco or Garver (because of position uncertainties) and also ABWII (because of the low floor). Like so many of our prospects, this year at AA will be a make or break year (in terms of being a top prospect, anyway)!

Edited February 3, 2015 by TRex

[Steve Lein]

Wonder how far up this list Minier will go after mashing in E-town this year...

 

I'd have him higher, but hard to argue since he's just getting started stateside.

[Cap'n Piranha]

All I'm gonna say is that it'll be a fun year being a Chatty fan.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Wonder how far up this list Minier will go after mashing in E-town this year...

 

I'd have him higher, but hard to argue since he's just getting started stateside.

He's a guy that I could seen getting a chance in Cedar Rapids due to injury and never looking back. The only downside with him is how limited he'll be defensively.

[amjgt]

No kidding. Those first few months in Chattanooga are going to be awesome.

[Steve Lein]

He's a guy that I could seen getting a chance in Cedar Rapids due to injury and never looking back. The only downside with him is how limited he'll be defensively.

 

Yeah, definitely lacks a position, but think that bat is top 5-ish in the system.

[nytwinsfan]

With Vargas, Pinto, Mauer, and maybe Sano at 1st Base/DH, where do we see Minier and Diaz playing in 2018-20? Yes, I know it is not exactly the most pressing issue, and the Twins could probably trade one or more if we end up having the problem of too many slow, power bats, but it is worth considering.

 

Also, Turner has the floor of a major league backup catcher, but whether he is good enough to start will depend on whether or not he hits like Butera. I'm not at all convinced he will be an adequate starting catcher in 2017. When it does come time for the Twins to flip Plouffe, Escobar, or even Dozier later this year or next, I'd like to see them do it for a higher-ceiling catching prospect.

[gunnarthor]

This is a pretty strong 16-20.  I guess I'm lukewarm on Duffey (maybe it's his name) but I really like Reed and Minier.  Harrison and Turner aren't sexy but both could develop into solid parts.  Really deep system. 

[gil4]

I must be a REALLY slow typist, as Markos beat me by 30 minutes! But anyway...

 

It wasn't slow typing, just a lot of it.  It was worth it - good analysis.   I didn't realize Turner had hit so well after that slow start.  From what I've heard. he's MLB-ready or close to it behind the plate, and that by itself has some value. 

 

I like Polanco and I would guess his future value will be higher than Turner's, but Turner's floor is higher.  I'm sure Rosario is coming up on the list, but there are definitely causes for concern there.  Is Garver coming up or is he outside the top 20?

[nater79a]

The Tigers have two pitching prospects (Farmer and Kubitz, also a Rice product, B-) graded a notch higher than Reed and Duffey (both C+), according to Sickels. They are the #2 and #3 prospects for them, I think. Of course, the Twins have twelve pitchers graded as high or higher than Reed and Duffey.

 

How do you count 12 pitching prospects higher than Reed or Duffey? I've got Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, Burdi, Thorpe, Rogers & May.  Am I missing someone?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Also, Turner has the floor of a major league backup catcher, but whether he is good enough to start will depend on whether or not he hits like Butera.

He doesn't have to hit much to be valuable. In 2014, the median team OPS out of catcher was ~.675.

[nytwinsfan]

He doesn't have to hit much to be valuable. In 2014, the median team OPS out of catcher was ~.675.

 

Fair enough, but Butera has a major league career OPS of .505. :-) True, he had a minor league OPS of only .607, compared to Turner's minor league OPS of .707 so far, but Butera's OPS was better than that through A+ as well. In fact, Butera's OPS in the Florida State League was a .765. I think Turner will likely end up being a better hitter than Butera, and if he is a league average hitter for catcher, that would be fine with his defense. But that's not a given at all

.

Edited February 3, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Hypothetical: If Turner has .280/.350/.425 first half in Chattanooga and Suzuki gets injured and needs to miss significant time, is Turner the guy that comes up?

[Shane Wahl]

I have Duffey the 10th ranked pitcher and Turner the 12th ranked position player. 

[Shane Wahl]

Hypothetical: If Turner has .280/.350/.425 first half in Chattanooga and Suzuki gets injured and needs to miss significant time, is Turner the guy that comes up?

 

Though this hurts my most recent blog post (I just don't see Turner having a great season), the answer would be yes, unless somehow Fryer gets added to the 40-man roster before then.

[nytwinsfan]

Hypothetical: If Turner has .280/.350/.425 first half in Chattanooga and Suzuki gets injured and needs to miss significant time, is Turner the guy that comes up?

 

Yes, I think so, but I'd be (pleasantly) surprised by those numbers.

[Seth Stohs]

He's a guy that I could seen getting a chance in Cedar Rapids due to injury and never looking back. The only downside with him is how limited he'll be defensively.

 

Cedar Rapids will start the year with Murphy in LF, English in CF (or vice versa) and Larson probably in RF. They aren't going to have Minier up there to be a 4th OF. I guess he could DH (probably his best position) and get some time in LF and RF and 1B as well. I think he could be what you're saying, but I don't expect him to start the season there. 

[Seth Stohs]

I like Polanco and I would guess his future value will be higher than Turner's, but Turner's floor is higher.  I'm sure Rosario is coming up on the list, but there are definitely causes for concern there.  Is Garver coming up or is he outside the top 20?

 

Would it be mean to say... You'll just have to come back for Part 2: 11-15 to find out... Ha!

[TRex]

Hypothetical: If Turner has .280/.350/.425 first half in Chattanooga and Suzuki gets injured and needs to miss significant time, is Turner the guy that comes up?

Sounds good to me!

 

I think the fact that the Twins chose to start him (again, at a very difficult position) at High-A in his first full season indicates they are not too worried about how struggles will affect his development. Similarly, I don't think they were worried about calling Jorge Polanco up for a short time in 2014.

 

I would also imagine how he responded to his initial FSL struggles would strengthen the Twins assessment of his mental makeup.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Cedar Rapids will start the year with Murphy in LF, English in CF (or vice versa) and Larson probably in RF. They aren't going to have Minier up there to be a 4th OF. I guess he could DH (probably his best position) and get some time in LF and RF and 1B as well. I think he could be what you're saying, but I don't expect him to start the season there. 

But when Murphy rakes and gets promoted straight to the bigs, they're going to need another OF.

 

Or, like I said, someone gets hurt... Vielma wasn't supposed to get his shot at Low-A last year... and then he did and ran with it.

[Seth Stohs]

Hypothetical: If Turner has .280/.350/.425 first half in Chattanooga and Suzuki gets injured and needs to miss significant time, is Turner the guy that comes up?

 

I would doubt it. i'm sure they'd go with Herrmann, Pinto and Fryer... but there is an outside chance. Probably depends on how long Suzuki would be out. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Though this hurts my most recent blog post (I just don't see Turner having a great season), the answer would be yes, unless somehow Fryer gets added to the 40-man roster before then.

 

Of course Fryer will be on the 40-man by then... but neither he nor Pinto are "long-term" catchers. I don't expect Turner to put up huge offensive numbers either. But I'd still put him next in line to be the "primary" catcher.

[Shane Wahl]

Of course Fryer will be on the 40-man by then... but neither he nor Pinto are "long-term" catchers. I don't expect Turner to put up huge offensive numbers either. But I'd still put him next in line to be the "primary" catcher.

 

I will throw up if he is on the 40-man by then. You are right about primary catchers: the list really goes Suzuki-Fryer-Turner, whereas backup really would be Pinto-Herrmann-Rohlfing. That is why I made the Fryer remark. If it really comes down to adding either Fryer or Turner to the 40-man, I would hope they just skip over Fryer.

Edited February 3, 2015 by Shane Wahl