Brian Dozier Extension

[Paul Pleiss]

Over at the Phil Hughes extension thread, there's a lot of talk about extending some other players on the current ballclub, most notably Brian Dozier.

 

Personally, I don't think I've seen enough consistency to make a long-term contract offer to Dozier, I think the Twins would be taking all of the risk without a likely high return on a guy who is already under team control for several more years so how much free agency would a deal be buying out?

 

Does it hurt the Twins significantly in annual average value for a long term contract for Dozier if they wait until the end of 2015 to see if the Superman of the first half of 2014 or the Clark Kent of the 2nd half is more likely the true talent?

 

I don't risk it, not now. What's the upside to locking him up now?

[Bark's Lounge]

It might not be a bad idea to put an offer together and throw it at Dozier and get some dialogue started about a contract extension. If Dozier can raise his BA 20 points, he is an elite second baseman and he is, at least to me, becoming the face of the franchise on the position player side of things.

 

Although Dozier is 27 and turning 28 sometime during the 2015 season, I still believe he is a work in progress and I am expecting more progression from him. It seems like Brunansky and Molitor have unlocked his treasure chest of talent and we have not seen his best as of yet.

 

If the Twins don't get something worked out with him this off season it is a realistic proposition that they could next season if he has 2013 or 2014 repeat.

 

If Dozier has a 20+/30 season with a .280BA and 90BB, the Twins might be **** out of luck.

 

Dozier is the real McCoy.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Dozier deserves one, too, but at some point we should ask ourselves if it's wise to continue giving contract extensions to guys based on a single good season: Perkins, Suzuki, Hughes. Maybe it is. I have no idea. It seems to be part of the new m. o.

[TheLeviathan]

As I said in another thread, given his age and the teams control there is no need to give him one. Combine that with his erratic offensive production and you run a very high risk of that unnecessary deal you inked blowing up in your face.

[jay]

As I said in another thread, given his age and the teams control there is no need to give him one. Combine that with his erratic offensive production and you run a very high risk of that unnecessary deal you inked blowing up in your face.

From a guy who is so big on giving prospects time to adjust, I don't understand the Dozier distrust. 2012 was his adjustment. 2013 and 2014 were good to great. Why does in-season variation matter? I don't think you'd find many players without it...

 

I do get the age and team control piece, but obtaining options on free agency years still have a strong likelihood of being quite valuable.

[Steve Penz]

Please do not sign him to an extension.  The Twins need to depart from the idea that somebody has earned an extension vs what is the best move.  Ideally I hope Dozier has another great first half and then gets moved to make room for Polanco.  Sell high.  What would Oakland do?  

[Seth Stohs]

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/who-says-no-brian-dozier-edition-r3222

[TheLeviathan]

From a guy who is so big on giving prospects time to adjust, I don't understand the Dozier distrust. 2012 was his adjustment. 2013 and 2014 were good to great. Why does in-season variation matter? I don't think you'd find many players without it...

 

I do get the age and team control piece, but obtaining options on free agency years still have a strong likelihood of being quite valuable.

 

Brian Dozier is still a prospect?  That seems like a bit of a stretch.  I don't think you extend players unless you think you're going to save a bunch of money.  (Like Hughes, his contract was an obvious bargain for what he did last year)  Dozier doesn't appear to be in that position given that he'll be past his prime by the time he hits FA  There is so little to gain by extending him and so much at risk that I think it's a bad idea.

 

But lets be clear: Brian Dozier was a 98 OPS+ in 2013 and even that success was largely driven by two great months that were surrounded by two awful months and two ok months.  2014 was a great first half, followed by a very weird second half that saw him have a huge BABIP fluke in August and  July where his BB/K ratio was 3/25.  

 

So if that erratic production is evidence of Brian Dozier still adjusting.....why the hell are we investing in a player who is still adjusting?  That's the whole point of using team control to see what a player can do before you have to make a long-term decision.  

[stringer bell]

Please do not sign him to an extension.  The Twins need to depart from the idea that somebody has earned an extension vs what is the best move.  Ideally I hope Dozier has another great first half and then gets moved to make room for Polanco.  Sell high.  What would Oakland do?  

Usually lose in the first round of the playoffs.  Basically Oakland and the Twins have had the same success since Moneyball began.  Frequently make the postseason, but never go anywhere after that.  Beane and Ryan appear to be the extremes in the continuum in rebuilding a roster. 

[Platoon]

If we did not sign Hunter v1, Santana v1, or a few of the other upper echelon FA, why would we extend a Dozier level player this early. While the revenue from Target has increased the budget, everything is relative and the outlays have also increased. I like Dozier's personality, his effort, and his hair. But he is replaceable, probably in house in the near future. One other reason for not extending him, is it removes any flexibility on roster moves at that position. While there is not a league rule against trading players with fresh contracts, this FO seems to think there is.

[SwainZag]

The Twins need to decide how they veiw Dozier.  It seems pretty split here on TD whether he is a replaceable cog or a long term starter.

 

Looking at statistics in 2014 Dozier was 3rd in batting WAR of all 2B in the league and 6th in total WAR for 2B.  He will turn 28 next season and has gradually gotten better in both each of the last 2 seasons.

 

The downside to not giving him an extension now is another 2014 season where he puts up between 4-5 WAR and his price tag more than likely goes up a couple million per season.  The upside is if he falls back to being a 2 WAR player the team would have saved money long term.

 

IMO...sign him.  Middle infielders who can hit for power are a rare commodity.  Only Neil Walker and Iam Desmond (Tulo would have as well) hit for as many HR as Dozier did last year, and that's not taking into account the amount of time he walks.

 

For where the Twins are at right now I think it would be foolish to sell him off for prospects.  The real question is....what is he worth?  

[stringer bell]

IMHO, Dozier is "proven" as a second baseman and is probably in the top half of players at his position.  That is worth a lot of money and there is no guarantee that a player currently in the Twins' system can equal that productivity.  It is quite possible that his 2014 season will be his best, but I doubt he'll fall off a cliff in the next couple of years, but the trajectory of his career can't really be marked by only last year and this year. 

 

It makes little sense to extend him when he's isn't even eligible for arbitration.  A year from now we'll probably have a much better idea of how good he will be for the next few years. 

 

Personally, I like Dozier a lot.  He's improved dramatically and he has the ability to affect a game with legs, glove and bat.  He plays a key position and has made the transition from short seamlessly.

[nicksaviking]

Dozier deserves one, too, but at some point we should ask ourselves if it's wise to continue giving contract extensions to guys based on a single good season: Perkins, Suzuki, Hughes. Maybe it is. I have no idea. It seems to be part of the new m. o.

Your first line might be most apt to Twins thinking. They seem to make a lot of moves based on rewarding employees even while they may not make the best business sense. Plenty to admire in that philosophy, even if I don't agree with the decisions as they do not necessarily seem to be the easiest path to a championship.

[Steve Penz]

Usually lose in the first round of the playoffs. Basically Oakland and the Twins have had the same success since Moneyball began. Frequently make the postseason, but never go anywhere after that. Beane and Ryan appear to be the extremes in the continuum in rebuilding a roster.

 

You may be right about the same end results. I like Oakland's style because they make gutsy moves that MN does not seem to make. I can feel a moderator coming so let me get back on topic. Dozier is under team control, the system has 2nd base talent and therefore I don't support an extension. Sell high.

[h2oface]

I like Dozier. I would not extend him this year or next. I don't agree that he had anywhere close to a great year. Maybe the standard is getting so low that some might say that. Maybe good is the new great. (Has Kinsler had great years?)  I hope not. Let Dozier show that he can do what he did the first half of the season the whole year (plus hit for average, for a couple of years)...... He is under control for some time. I like arbitration. I like seeing guys make a lot of money if they deserve it. I hate seeing guys not get paid for their performance and the converse, getting paid too much for their performance.  

[Willihammer]

I believe Dozier is pretty much what he showed us last year, over the whole year. A good glove, good baserunner, good eye, decent but streaky pop, someone who plays the game hard. Kinda a poor man's Pedroia. The question is how will those skills age over the next 5-6 years or whatever term an extension would be.

 

Looking again at Pedroia, he's a 30 year old former MVP that the Red Sox locked in to a 7/55 extension after his 2nd full season (age 24), which is where Dozier is at only he's 3 years older. Last year, Pedroia's skills declined somewhat (the eye was merely good and the glove was still elite). He also spent a good chunk of time on the DL. Overall he was still a very good player (4-5 WARs) and easily worth the 12.5m he was paid. If Dozier's skills/body age similarly, its probably realistic to expect him to drop into the bottom half of 2B's around the time the Twins control over him is running out (after his age 31 season). I still wouldn't be opposed to an extension but I would want pretty favorable terms if I were the Twins.

[jorgenswest]

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/who-says-no-brian-dozier-edition-r3222

Great discussion and starter. If you didn't follow it, check it out. Nothing has changed in Dozier's status in the short time since that discussion slowed.

[dxpavelka]

Please do not sign him to an extension.  The Twins need to depart from the idea that somebody has earned an extension vs what is the best move.  Ideally I hope Dozier has another great first half and then gets moved to make room for Polanco.  Sell high.  What would Oakland do?  

What would Oakland do?:  Probably lose an early playoff series.  I thought we were shooting for a different model.

[dxpavelka]

Based on his 2014 production, Dozier is a top 5 MLB 2B.  His batting average, however, was lower than any other top 25 2B meaning that a significant amout of his production was based on power and speed.  Those power & speed numbers diminished significantly over the 2nd half of 2014.  If you project those numbers to cut in half in 2015, a fairly reasonable possibilty based on his post All-Star break numbers, he goes from top 5 to about top 13.  Take away his power and his walks most likely drop as well because pitchers aren't going to avoid the strike zone when pitching to a .242 hitter without power.  This probably drops him another 5-10 spots.  Kind of hard to justify an extension for a guy who probably projects as 10th best in his league at his position and produces little that is not power based.  He also struck out more than any 2B as well.   All this being said, I hope he proves me wrong, maintains his power & speed numbers and raises his batting average to .275.  I'd be happy as hell.

[USAFChief]

Based on his 2014 production, Dozier is a top 5 MLB 2B.  His batting average, however, was lower than any other top 25 2B meaning that a significant amout of his production was based on power and speed.  Those power & speed numbers diminished significantly over the 2nd half of 2014.  If you project those numbers to cut in half in 2015, a fairly reasonable possibilty based on his post All-Star break numbers, he goes from top 5 to about top 13.  Take away his power and his walks most likely drop as well because pitchers aren't going to avoid the strike zone when pitching to a .242 hitter without power.  This probably drops him another 5-10 spots.  Kind of hard to justify an extension for a guy who probably projects as 10th best in his league at his position and produces little that is not power based.  He also struck out more than any 2B as well.   All this being said, I hope he proves me wrong, maintains his power & speed numbers and raises his batting average to .275.  I'd be happy as hell.

His walks didnt decrease over the second half last year, though.

 

His OBP was actually slightly higher than the first half.

[Monkeypaws]

If he hits some homers next season on something other than high inside fastballs, I'd say sign him up. Otherwise, if the scouts have him figured out, he becomes a good fielding light hitting middle infielder.

[dxpavelka]

His walks didnt decrease over the second half last year, though.

 

His OBP was actually slightly higher than the first half.

They didn't, but pitchers aren't stupid.  Eventually, they're going to stop nibbling at the corners against a guy who doesn't beat you with power or average.

[stringer bell]

I don't think it is as simple as no power/no walks.  Dozier was a quality hitter over the course of his 2014 season because he displayed good power and patience.  I wouldn't be totally surprised if he doesn't exceed 20 homers again, but I would bet that he'll make the teens with plenty of doubles.  His biggest improvement over 2013 was drawing free passes.  Perhaps it is the Bruno influence or maybe just the maturing of a good, determined player, but I doubt that he'll suddenly reduce that walk rate substantially.  I think his margin is smaller than ultra-talented hitters, and that his upside isn't a whole bunch more than last year as a hitter, but he was a pretty darned good hitter last year and a couple more years of such production will earn him a real good pay day. 

[USAFChief]

They didn't, but pitchers aren't stupid.  Eventually, they're going to stop nibbling at the corners against a guy who doesn't beat you with power or average.

I tend to agree, though there are counter examples out there.

 

I also agree I'd like to see Dozier up his BA, if for no other reason hits are more valuable than walks.

 

I just thought I would point out that, at least last year, he was still drawing walks in the second half.

 

As to the thread topic...I wouldn't extend Dozier, simply because at his age, it isn't necessary. You might pay more through the arb years, but you also aren't tied into anything beyond that.

 

As for right now, he's a good enough player to be a big part of a championship team. Easily.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, I extend him, though I think he'd come much cheaper than people seem to think... That's my 2 cents.  He has one more year making the minimum. 

[TheLeviathan]

Honestly, I extend him, though I think he'd come much cheaper than people seem to think... That's my 2 cents.  He has one more year making the minimum.

After the minimum what do people expect him to start making? I get the impression they think it will skyrocket and that is partially driving this. Just so we are all clear, the highest paid third year service time Arby price was 6.5 million and that was Giancarlo Stanton. I think I can comfortably put Dozier well below that level.

[shs_59]

Got an e-mail yesterday from Jim Bowden (well essentially he finally replied back to me again) first time since well before the winter meetings.

 

and he did confirm, the Twins had talks with clubs about their middle infielders Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier.

Mr Bowden Speculated, but told me rather in-directly, that the Nationals approached the Twins right before the winter meetings or during them anway.

 

Proposing SP Jordan Zimmerman, OF prospect Michael Taylor and what Bowden believed to be 2B Danny Espinosa

 

While Recieving back from the Twins 2B Brian Dozier, and SP Alex Meyer and a low level minor leaguer.

 

Wow....

if i was the Twins that would have definately peaked my interest level.

 

Not sure how close that was to getting done. But its fun to know the rumor or one of them anyways, and to see the names being tossed around.

[h2oface]

The Nats probably can't believe that the Twins STILL haven't let Meyer pitch in the show yet. Looks like they would like to shed some salary, and figure Meyer can replace Zimmerman. That is a pretty high expectation. I think they are right. I don't think that the Nats would make Meyer start in the minors if they traded for him.  Neither should the Twins. 

[dxpavelka]

I don't think it is as simple as no power/no walks.  Dozier was a quality hitter over the course of his 2014 season because he displayed good power and patience.  I wouldn't be totally surprised if he doesn't exceed 20 homers again, but I would bet that he'll make the teens with plenty of doubles.  His biggest improvement over 2013 was drawing free passes.  Perhaps it is the Bruno influence or maybe just the maturing of a good, determined player, but I doubt that he'll suddenly reduce that walk rate substantially.  I think his margin is smaller than ultra-talented hitters, and that his upside isn't a whole bunch more than last year as a hitter, but he was a pretty darned good hitter last year and a couple more years of such production will earn him a real good pay day. 

I have trouble putting .242 career average and quality hitter in the same sentence unless we're talking about a consistent 30-40 home run guy.  I'm not seeing it.

[SwainZag]

I have trouble putting .242 career average and quality hitter in the same sentence unless we're talking about a consistent 30-40 home run guy.  I'm not seeing it.

 

How about nearly 70 extra base hits, 89 walks, and 20 stolen bases.  The average is a little low but let's not let that alone define  him as a hitter.  He was 3rd in the MLB for 2nd basemen in offensive WAR last year even with that .242 average.  He was a quality player at the plate last year, especially for the position he plays.