Article: Powering Up The Bullpen

[Nick Nelson]

There are only so many worthwhile takeaways to be gleaned from an examination of the Kansas City Royals' incredible postseason run up to this point. It's just been one of those miraculous stretches of baseball where everything has kept on clicking. (At least until Game 1 of the World Series.)

 

It is possible that the impact of Kansas City's speed, fundamentals, and maybe even defense, can be overstated.

 

The impact of a lights-out bullpen, however, cannot.During the regular season, the Royals went 64-9 when ahead after the sixth inning, and 65-4 when ahead after the seventh. This relief corps that reliably protected leads during the summer has stepped it up here in October.

 

When Kansas City leads after five, or gains a lead at any point thereafter, the win has been automatic.

 

This was an overlooked calling card in the Twins' wonder years. During Minnesota's division championship seasons of 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2010, they ranked 4th, 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th and 4th among AL teams in bullpen ERA.

 

This year, they ranked 10th.

 

So when you look at areas that need to improve, this is a pretty blatant one. A truly great bullpen can be a key difference-maker; many of those division-winning clubs lacked elite lineups or rotations but won games because they consistently could finish the job.

 

Fortunately, the current Twins already have that all-important piece: a shutdown closer. Like Eddie Guardado and Joe Nathan before him, Glen Perkins is an All-Star, ranking among the game's best at slamming the door.

 

Concerns over Perkins' sore forearm and shaky September were quelled after an MRI revealed no UCL damage.

 

But what of the pieces leading up to Perkins? Where are those dominant arms that bridge the gap, like Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera have done for the Royals?

 

Casey Fien was far less dominant this year than in 2013, as his strikeouts declined and more hits fell in. Jared Burton struggled too often, and seems unlikely to have his option activated. When minor-leaguers like Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter and Lester Oliveros got their chances, they delivered mixed results.

 

If the Twins want to be proactive in addressing the bullpen, they might want to seek alternatives to their present options. That could mean looking to free agency, where some intriguing names are covered in the Offseason Handbook.

 

But it also might mean getting creative and trying out some different things. One such idea is shifting Mike Pelfrey into a relief role, where I believe he could transform from a liability to an asset.

 

And here's another idea I'm starting to like: Alex Meyer in the bullpen to start the season.

 

He already has a full year at Triple-A under his belt and he'll turn 25 in January. He needs to be in the majors. But the Twins seem to have lingering doubts about his ability to pitch deep into games, and that's warranted. He completed six innings just once in his last seven starts at Rochester.

 

There might not be room for him in the rotation from the outset, if the Twins sign a pitcher or want to give Tommy Milone a look.

 

So why not let Meyer start out in a relief role, where he can gain confidence pitching in short stints while blowing big-league hitters away with his elite stuff?

 

The Twins brought Francisco Liriano along in this manner in 2006. He dominated pitching a couple innings at a time as a potent weapon out of the bullpen during the first six weeks, and was already rolling by the time he hit the rotation in mid-May.

 

Since Meyer only pitched 130 innings this year and ended on an injury scare, the Twins will want to manage his workload. Serving as a reliever those first few weeks or months will allow him to pitch deeper into the season without vastly exceeding his inning total from 2014.

 

Ideally, he'll pitch well in this role, refine his control, and be ready to stretch out and step in as a starter when help is inevitably needed. Or else the Twins could let him work as a reliever the entire season. The Cardinals did so with Adam Wainwright his rookie year, and he turned out all right.

 

Whichever route they choose to go, Minnesota must find a way to harness Meyer's overpowering arm. It makes little sense to send him back to the minors.

 

Click here to view the article

[DocBauer]

FWIW, Santana also began in the bullpen. First as a rule V stash, then as a valuable arm growing in to a role.

 

Not saying that should be Meyer's route......just saying.

[Nick Nelson]

Yep. Great point. It's worked for plenty of young hurlers breaking into the big-league ranks, and seems especially logical for Meyer given his circumstances.

[Otwins]

I like breaking Meyer in from the bullpen. Start with some low pressure spots. Look at May's first start- on the road at Oakland. Put your players in spots where they can be successful. That is a big part of managing. 

[James Richter]

I hope Meyer gets every opportunity to make the rotation out of spring training. I'm somewhat torn on whether it would be better for him to hone his control for 8-10 starts in the minors or work on it out of the bullpen a la Liriano. He should certainly have a role on the team for most of 2015.

 

I'm looking forward to the reliever breakdown in the Handbook - will they be sorted by K/9?

[Paul Pleiss]

I love that someone is addressing the bullpen issues, which I think have been a bit misrepresented by the fanbase. Everyone kept saying how we have an above average bullpen, but this last season, that wasn't the case. Yes, they may have been over exposed as the season wound down, but most guys were right in line with recent usage over the past several years.

 

bullpens are ficle. It's hard to predict who will be awesome from year to year, and even harder to trust free agent acquisitions. Look at the Tigers and Dodgers for a case study in bullpen construction. It's tough. Luckily the Twins have some great assets moving up through their system. Hard throwers with control and legit out pitches. The bullpen could once again become the real strength of this team.

[Senior Softball Guy]

The idea has some merit. I'm also high on A.J. Achter, and not just the story. He seems to "know how to pitch". He did fine after a shaky start.

[KGB]

I think anyway you keep Meyers in the majors is a positive step.  He'll start the season being 25 year old, more time in AAA isn't going to prove anything,  He needs to show something in the majors so the team can start planning a direction with their pitching staff.

[jay]

I'm in on both Pelfrey and Meyer in the bullpen to start the year. Makes sense for both.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm on the "at least 2-3 of the RP need to be guys you can send to AAA" bandwagon. There are a lot of questions about the starters. RP are unpredictable. A team in this position, imo, can't be stuck with 4 or 6 guys that can't be optioned.

 

If they won't start Meyer in MN, they should let him relieve in MN, imo. I'm indifferent on Pelfrey, other than I'd prefer they not try him at starter (he's the definition of a sunk cost, mediocrity blocking prospects).

[DJL44]

Mike Pelfrey is 30 and hasn't been good as a starter since 2010. I think he'll quickly realize that it's the bullpen or get out of baseball. I agree that he could do better in a bullpen role if he can dial up the fastball.

[tobi0040]

I'm in on both Pelfrey and Meyer in the bullpen to start the year. Makes sense for both.

 

I would not be opposed to moving Meyer to the pen to start next year, if it is a pathway to the rotation for him.  But you have to go out and sign a good starter if that is the case.  We can't roll with only Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, and May.  

 

I have concerns about depth and more importantly, talent.   When a guy like Milone is your 5th starter before the eventual injury or inneffectiveness...then you get your AAAA guys..it makes for a long year and more of the same. 

[Brandon]

Meyer needs to be either starting or in the bullpen.  I don't really care where just think he needs to be one place or the other and not going back and forth. 

 

I do like Pelfry in the pen.  Can he get his pitches up over 95 there? 

 

How long till Berrios is ready?  I know he is pretty much ready for AAA.  This tells me he could be ready early next season.

[Dantes929]

tobi, you may be right but why are you down on Milone?   Shouldn't his 3.98 AL ERA in 500 innings trump Nolasco's 4.48 NL ERA?     I agree though that the depth, especially without Meyer contributing, looks really thin.   I have no problem with Meyer starting out in the pen but citing how he didn't pitch deep into games when they were limiting his pitches and innings seems a bit catch 22 to me.     Or is my memory faulty about his limits?   

[tobi0040]

Meyer needs to be either starting or in the bullpen.  I don't really care where just think he needs to be one place or the other and not going back and forth. 

 

I do like Pelfry in the pen.  Can he get his pitches up over 95 there? 

 

How long till Berrios is ready?  I know he is pretty much ready for AAA.  This tells me he could be ready early next season.

 

My odds are against Berrios at all this year.

 

Garza is cited as a guy that moved really quick.  He was drafted at 21 and appeared at 22 and 250 days.  Berrios is 20 and 150 days right now. 

[TheLeviathan]

Meyer needs to be either starting or in the bullpen.  I don't really care where just think he needs to be one place or the other and not going back and forth. 

 

I do like Pelfry in the pen.  Can he get his pitches up over 95 there? 

 

How long till Berrios is ready?  I know he is pretty much ready for AAA.  This tells me he could be ready early next season.

 

That seems a tad hurried, especially given how the Twins seem to like to see starters log a significant chunk of innings in AAA before a callup.  Early 2016 seems more likely.

[tobi0040]

tobi, you may be right but why are you down on Milone?   Shouldn't his 3.98 AL ERA in 500 innings trump Nolasco's 4.48 NL ERA?     I agree though that the depth, especially without Meyer contributing, looks really thin.   I have no problem with Meyer starting out in the pen but citing how he didn't pitch deep into games when they were limiting his pitches and innings seems a bit catch 22 to me.     Or is my memory faulty about his limits?   

 

I guess I am not totally sold on Milone. I don't think we should cut the guy or anything.  I just can't count on him. I have just seen too many guys in the mid 80's with no strikeouts here fail I guess. 

 

Agreed on Meyer, he was limited to 85-90 pitches a game.  He still was not very effective with the pitches he had....but certainly the pitch count played a huge role.

[tobi0040]

  Early 2016 seems more likely.

 

I really, really hope you are wrong.

[Rosterman]

May and Darnell in the bullpen. Oliveros is out of options, right? Let Meyer start at Roch

ester and see what happens. Maybe Pelfrey is right for the pen, too. Soft throwers like Pressley and Thompson and Thielbar are fodder, Achter and Burdi and major pluses in the wings. The Twins can afford to go arbitration with Swarzak and Duensing if they have the 40-man spots. Question is can they get value for them if the need is not there as spring training winds down. Fien should've been sold high in July/August. Possible he will be Burton of 2015.

 

And why was Burton deemed closer when Perkins went down. Better to se anyone who would pitch in 2016 or 2016.

[nicksaviking]

If it works for the Cardinals, it works for me.  I want him in the rotation to start the year, but the club clearly wants to baby him.  I'll agree to the compromise.

[Nick Nelson]

I have no problem with Meyer starting out in the pen but citing how he didn't pitch deep into games when they were limiting his pitches and innings seems a bit catch 22 to me.     Or is my memory faulty about his limits?   

There's some truth to that, but Meyer's inability to pitch deep into games spoke more to the high pitch counts he regularly ran up due to bouts of wildness. If that's happening in Triple-A, it's only going to get worse in the majors. Probably my No. 1 concern with him (other than the shoulder).

[markos]

I love that someone is addressing the bullpen issues, which I think have been a bit misrepresented by the fanbase. Everyone kept saying how we have an above average bullpen, but this last season, that wasn't the case. Yes, they may have been over exposed as the season wound down, but most guys were right in line with recent usage over the past several years.

I agree. The 2013 bullpen was above-average, with the peripherals to back it up (roughly average strikeout rate and HR rate, above average walk rate). In 2014, the bullpen was last in baseball in strikeout rate. They were able to overcome this problem in the first half of the season because they were among the best at preventing home runs. However, the HR rate regressed in the second half of the season, and the above-average walk rate wasn't able to counterbalance the dismal strikeout rate. 

 

Even in the first half of 2014, the strikeout rate dropped from 21% to 17%. It wasn't an issue of overexposure. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

How long till Berrios is ready?  I know he is pretty much ready for AAA.  This tells me he could be ready early next season.

Berrios is 20 years old, has 9 starts above single-A, and a 6.4 K/9 in those starts.  Based on what we know right now, he is almost certainly ticketed for AA to begin 2015, and his absolute earliest MLB debut would be September 2015 (like Francisco Liriano circa 2005).

 

And given his age and experience, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that, or even a 2016 debut, frankly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There's some truth to that, but Meyer's inability to pitch deep into games spoke more to the high pitch counts he regularly ran up due to bouts of wildness. If that's happening in Triple-A, it's only going to get worse in the majors. Probably my No. 1 concern with him (other than the shoulder).

Dude was on an 80 pitch limit for much of the season (and the entire middle part of the season, when he should have been loose but not yet tired), and sometimes less if he got into trouble early.  It's hard to throw much more than 6 innings max under those circumstances unless you're a control freak like Hughes 2014.

 

Meyer is a little on the wild side, granted, but at this point, the data suggests his wildness is comfortably within the acceptable range for successful starters.  If Meyer had notably better control, he'd probaly be a top 10 prospect in all of MLB (if not already succeeding in MLB), which would be a fantastic outcome, of course, but it's not a fair standard to hold him to when deciding promotions/roles, or something to worry about him not achieving.  He can still be incredibly valuable to the Twins just like he is.

[SarasotaBill]

2015 is the last year of the transition.

 

Bring up Meyer as a starter after mid-June to save one more year of Arbitration. You'll be glad for the next seven years.

 

Mid 2016 bullpen: Perkins, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Z. Jones - now that's a power bullpen

[Brandon]

That seems a tad hurried, especially given how the Twins seem to like to see starters log a significant chunk of innings in AAA before a callup.  Early 2016 seems more likely.

 

The reason I say this, is because If Meyer goes to the pen and so does Pelfry, then we would almost need to sign another pitcher unless Berrios is ready as our depth 6/7/8th starters are not as plentiful at this time. 

 

Hughes/ Nolasco/ Gibson/ May/ Millone then you have Gilmartin and Berrios and Pino if healthy next season and he re-signs.  That's not a lot of depth if we can not count on Berrios as an option.  Maybe Rogers and The other mid level prospect Duffy I think could be ready enough to pitch up here.  Who else would we be able to count on if Gibson or Hughes gets hurt for a month to start the season?

[jorgenswest]

The Twins absolutely can not expect Pelfrey to pitch well from the pen. Throughout his career, the drop off in his performance with runners on base is significant. He would need a bullpen role where he starts an inning. He can't pitch from the stretch. That would limit a manager's ability to use the pen.

[tobi0040]

Dude was on an 80 pitch limit for much of the season (and the entire middle part of the season, when he should have been loose but not yet tired), and sometimes less if he got into trouble early.  It's hard to throw much more than 6 innings max under those circumstances unless you're a control freak like Hughes 2014.

 

Meyer is a little on the wild side, granted, but at this point, the data suggests his wildness is comfortably within the acceptable range for successful starters.  If Meyer had notably better control, he'd probaly be a top 10 prospect in all of MLB (if not already succeeding in MLB), which would be a fantastic outcome, of course, but it's not a fair standard to hold him to when deciding promotions/roles, or something to worry about him not achieving.  He can still be incredibly valuable to the Twins just like he is.

 

I expect Meyer to improve his walk rate, last year was a bit of an outlier anyway.  But I do think the years of Twins having control pitchers without good/power stuff has skewed our view of what the walk rate needs to be.

 

For Liam Hendricks or Nick Blackburn, yes you can't walk many batters.  But when you have 10+ K's per 9 innings like Meyer...you have to put it in context.  Additionally, Meyer's HR rate was .39 and .69 per 9 the last two years and his hit rate was 7.7 and 8 per 9 as well.