Article: Left Field In Need Of Upgrade

[James Richter]

Great article on Fangraphs today about the Royals' D:

 

www.fangraphs.com/blogs/defense-needed-the-royals/

 

Lots of embedded clips to contrast with the one Parker included here. What's James Shields' ERA this season if he's pitching in front of the Twins' OF instead of those guys?

[lightfoot789]

Hate to say this, but other than the 2 who are playing in the AFL right now (Buxton & Rosario,) the other high ranked Twins OF prospects (Harrison, Kepler, Walker) run about as well as Delmon Young. 

As a professional Walker is 23 for 28 in stolen bases (82% success rate).   Thru College and Professional Career Walker is 63 for 69 in stolen bases (91% success rate.  He may not be a speed demon like Buxton, but he sure gets the most of his speed.  Not many get from 1st to 3rd faster or from 1st to home faster than Walker.  When he gets going he runs very well.  You won't find many who have seen him or even his coaches tell you otherwise.  Before you say that this is only "A" ball he is stealing bases in - Buxton is 72 for 96 in stolen base attempts (75% success rate).  Intangibles .   Rosario is 69 for 106 in stolen base attempts thru AA (65% success rate).   And if you want to talk about his speed at a comparable level - Rosario was 4 for 11 in stolen base attempts while playing for the Miracle in his career.   In Low "A" Rosario was 11 for 22 while Walker was 10 for 10 (100% success rate).   Who did you say runs like Delmon Young again?  Intangibles

 

Like most people - we all assume lighter in weight means faster.  Speed is about power and flexibility.  No one has longer strides than Walker other than maybe Goodrum and I would imagine no one has more powerful legs either.   He reminds me of a Cam Newton when he runs.  Deceivingly faster than he looks.

[ChrisKnutson]

Who thinks Daniel Ortiz should be looked at? I mean he actually plays all outfield positions played good amount of LF last year in AA and AAA. He hit very well in AA after struggling a little bit the year earlier, he then was promoted to AAA, struggled a little bit but held his own. If you don't know who he is, you should, look him up and his stats. Also just because he isn't even on the Twins Top Prospect list (at least I don't think so?)doesn't mean he shouldn't be looked cause he's got some tools.

 

Ortiz

-strong arm

-some speed 7 SB

-decent power 12 HR

-needs to be more patient at the plate .303 OBP

-young (24 yrs old)

-good bat .285 AVG

[jay]

Joe Mauer?

[stringer bell]

Who thinks Daniel Ortiz should be looked at? I mean he actually plays all outfield positions played good amount of LF last year in AA and AAA. He hit very well in AA after struggling a little bit the year earlier, he then was promoted to AAA, struggled a little bit but held his own. If you don't know who he is, you should, look him up and his stats. Also just because he isn't even on the Twins Top Prospect list (at least I don't think so?)doesn't mean he shouldn't be looked cause he's got some tools.

 

Ortiz

-strong arm

-some speed 7 SB

-decent power 12 HR

-needs to be more patient at the plate .303 OBP

-young (24 yrs old)

-good bat .285 AVG

I don't know about Ortiz winning a starting job, but I think he might get a shot as a fourth/fifth OF, depending on the exact roster makeup. From what I've seen and read about Ortiz plus a handful of PAs in Spring Training, he is a three-position OF who doesn't possess any one outstanding tool, but can do a little bit of everything. Right now, the Twins have LH hitters Schafer, Parmelee, and Rosario along with switch hitter Hicks all in the mix and probably ahead of Ortiz, but Parmelee and Schafer might not be retained. Hicks and Rosario are both coming off disappointing 2014 campaigns. Ortiz is a minor league free agent, but I have to believe the Twins will re-sign him.

[stringer bell]

While the topic is left field, the reality is that both left and center are probably unsettled. The Twins have to decide about Danny Santana. If he goes to shortstop, two positions need to be filled. If the Twins decide that Santana is a shortstop, I think the club has to go outside the organization to get a major leaguer who is a plus fielder, most likely to play center. I think they should lean on internal options for left in that scenario.

 

If Santana is your regular CF, then the competition should be wide open between several options. I really don't want to see Aaron Hicks in a Twins uni to start to 2015. He hasn't performed when the games count and he has shown the folly of believing in spring training numbers.

 

I would peg the competition as between Schafer, if he is retained, Rosario, Parmelee and perhaps Daniel Ortiz. All but Parmelee would qualify as a step up defensively from the pretty bad defense we saw last year. All are LH hitters. It seems to me that the Twins could use a good defender who hits right handed. Peter Bourjos has been mentioned a lot, another guy to look at might be Craig Gentry. Gentry had concussion issues last year and would have to be acquired by trade unless Oakland cuts him loose.

[Thegrin]

To me, this is a futile discussion.  We don't yet have a manager, and the manager will have a big effect on the choice of outfielders.  We don't know if TR plans to bring in a high salary player, and if so, will it be a starter or an outfielder?  Will it be a FA or will it be obtained by trades.  Too many unknowns for this thread to be anything but the rankest of speculations. 

[ChrisKnutson]

A decent amount teams are going to go after the troubled but talented Colby Rasmus(28 yrs old) and he could cost more than we think so it might not be worth it, especially if he is most likely not apart of our future. But if we can't get him or decide not to we should go after Chris B Young(31 yrs old) or go after veteran platoon player Chris Denorfia(34 yrs old)

 

Chris Young is actually a super realistic Free Agent for our Twins to sign , and could be a good fit. He is not that old yet (still a good athlete), fast, a (very) good defender, Ok patience at the plate, and has had pop in his bat since his debut. His defense is well needed in center or left and his bat ain't bad either his only issue is actually getting hits consistently (career avg is .230 something) but his short time with the yanks at the end of the season showed some promise. He's not our future but right now we need his DEFENSE and bat at low

cost for high reward.

 

Or

 

Go sign free agent Chris Denorfia yeah he's a veteran but he's not our future but he would help this club in few areas like

 

-veteran leadership (heart and hustle award for Padres)

-good defense (Wilson award for Padres)

-would be a great platoon player, hits Lefties good (platooned with Hicks in left)

-isn't a liability hitting wise (look at stats with Padres)

 

just a solid veteran player in everyway

[stringer bell]

Good post, ChrisKnutson. Yeah, lets bring in Denorfia and Young. We could have Herrmann, Colabello, Denorfia, Parmelee and Young. The Twins would lead the league in guys named Chris for sure.

Seriously, I don't know much about either Denorfia or Young, but they would appear to be upgrades who could bridge the team to when the prospects are here. Of the current outfield candidates, Arcia, Schafer, Rosario, Daniel Ortiz, Parmelee, and Herrmann all hit left handed. It makes perfect sense to bring in a RH hitter who can play good defense. It looks like both Chrises fill the bill in that respect.

Edited October 16, 2014 by stringer bell

[jharaldson]

Haven't checked the stats, going off a bit of a gut feeling, but seeing as how the Royals pitching staff won them a game or two and has them poised to sweep every postseason game up till the WS, they might allow fewer balls to the OF.  The fact that the Twins recorded fewer outs in LF than the Royals is simply remarkable to me.  My guess is that Twins LFers had dozens more balls hit at them, but fewer recorded outs.  Again, just a guess that maybe more is going on here than simply Royals outs>Twins outs.

 

The Twins had 696 chances in left field and the Royals had 683 chances which is roughly equal.  Looking at how pitching did impact the OF the Twins were roughly equal to the Royals in number of flyballs but the Twins had 21 more line drives hit to left field.  Maybe the Twins crappy pitching affected the Twins LF as much as the Twins crappy LF defense affected the pitching.

[drjim]

Not sure if you heard, but Gardy was fired.  We may see a more modern baseball roster.

 

I'll go out on a very short limb and predict that we see very little difference in the roster this year no matter who the manager is. 13 pitchers (on occasion) IS a modern baseball roster.

[stringer bell]

I'll go out on a very short limb and predict that we see very little difference in the roster this year no matter who the manager is. 13 pitchers (on occasion) IS a modern baseball roster.

I wouldn't be surprised if the position players aren't changed much. Basically the 12 who were on the squad when rosters were expanded and why not? That group scored runs as well as anyone. As others have pointed out, any additions need to help the team play better defense.

 

On the other hand, the Twins need to shake up their pitching staff. I think the bullpen needs turnover and at least two starting jobs are wide open.

[Willihammer]

A few days old but

 

Darren WolfsonVerified account ‏@DarrenWolfson

The #MNTwins have spoken w/ Cuban FA OF Yasmany Tomas' camp as recently as Monday. Clear they like him. Problem: so do about 10 other teams.

[Mike Sixel]

From what I've read, Tomas is not getting the kind of offers the last guy got.....which isn't surprising to me. That might make is more likely they get in. My fear is that this market is no longer inefficient.....

Edited October 17, 2014 by mike wants wins

[Physics Guy]

I just want the Twins to get a player they can afford and can help the team.  The rumor I saw predicted 7yrs/$105M.  While the Twins SHOULD have money to spend, I don't see Ryan forking over that kind of money.  Honestly, I don't see that as a wise investment for the Twins.  Even a contract similar to Rusney Castillo's, I'm not sure I would be in.  Scouting reports make Thomas sound like another Arcia, big power and average speed at best.  I would have preferred they went after Rusney Castillo.  He sounds like a much better defensive player, something the Twins need.

Edited October 17, 2014 by Physics Guy

[kenbuddha]

 Intangibles .    Intangibles

I'm not sure you know what "intangible" means. You quote a bunch of stats and then call them intangible. If they are measurable, then they are tangible.

[kenbuddha]

Can we just drop Parmalee from the conversation? Hasn't he proven that he can't hit and his defense isn't a plus? Why do we keep including him?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Because he's still on the 25 Man Roster?

 

Parmelee should be DFA'd or traded (if that's even possible given his limited value)

[bird]

Parmelee might end up being a good example of my biggest criticism of TR. There's perhaps hardly a team in baseball on which he'd represent an improvement, and guys like him are a commodity item, so he has almost no meaningful value. Not sure if he ever had a lot more value, but still, we may have another case of a guy being DFA'd for no return at all. 

[Physics Guy]

Parmelee might end up being a good example of my biggest criticism of TR. There's perhaps hardly a team in baseball on which he'd represent an improvement, and guys like him are a commodity item, so he has almost no meaningful value. Not sure if he ever had a lot more value, but still, we may have another case of a guy being DFA'd for no return at all. 

Don't all teams end up having guys like this that don't pan out and aren't worth anything in trade?

[drjim]

Parmelee might end up being a good example of my biggest criticism of TR. There's perhaps hardly a team in baseball on which he'd represent an improvement, and guys like him are a commodity item, so he has almost no meaningful value. Not sure if he ever had a lot more value, but still, we may have another case of a guy being DFA'd for no return at all. 

 

If there is "hardly a team in baseball in which he'd represent an improvement" how would he bring back much in meaningful return?

 

Once he hit High A he never was that highly ranked as a prospect, so extremely doubtful he would have had any meaningful value in a trade at any point.

 

As mentioned below, that happens to many prospects, and will happen again to some of the prospect corner guys we have some interest in right now - out of Walker, Harrison, Kepler, etc the odds are they probably won't make it, but 1 or 2 might. We'll look back and say it was a missed opportunity, but at the same time they have never really had trade value.

[bird]

Yes, I agree completely that his value has been nominal for a long time, and maybe I'm being unfair using him as an example. I also recognize guys are going to have to be cut simply because the timing doesn't allow for a transaction to be pursued. Still, I just wonder if a deal couldn't be pursued more often by the Twins for guys like him. Maybe last year when he had marginally more value, off to a team with a more acute shortage of MLB OF options for their version of a Kanzler or Tanner English- a low level prospect like that.

[jay]

Still, I just wonder if a deal couldn't be pursued more often by the Twins for guys like him. Maybe last year when he had marginally more value, off to a team with a more acute shortage of MLB OF options for their version of a Kanzler or Tanner English- a low level prospect like that.

I get your point, but is the odds of that hypothetical low level prospect even making it to MLB at all worth more than the odds of a guy already at MLB figuring it out to some degree?

[tobi0040]

I get your point, but is the odds of that hypothetical low level prospect even making it to MLB at all worth more than the odds of a guy already at MLB figuring it out to some degree?

 

Odds maybe similar, but if you are going to cut Parmelee...you may as well try and trade him first.  Although i am guessing Terry does this regularly and in this case would not find anything.

[stringer bell]

Parm passed thru every team when he was outrighted to Rochester. At that point he had zero trade value. He added a third position (LF), hit very well against left handed pitching and pretty well as a pinch hitter. I think some National League team could look at that skill set and see something at this point. However, the yield in a trade would be pretty small or low percentage, I would guess.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Parm passed thru every team when he was outrighted to Rochester. At that point he had zero trade value.

Actually, once he passed thru waivers, maybe he had a smidgen of value -- prior to that point, he required a 25 man roster spot, but once he cleared, he was basically a free nonroster AAA player for the season.  (Like Vance Worley was for the Pirates.)  Almost certainly not enough value to bring back a useful piece, of course, though (like Worley again).

 

I certainly won't complain about not trading him -- my bigger complaint was how this mostly non-prospect on the easier side of the defensive spectrum was given so many chances over the last 3 years.

[Kwak]

Actually, once he passed thru waivers, maybe he had a smidgen of value -- prior to that point, he required a 25 man roster spot, but once he cleared, he was basically a free nonroster AAA player for the season.  (Like Vance Worley was for the Pirates.)  Almost certainly not enough value to bring back a useful piece, of course, though (like Worley again).

 

I certainly won't complain about not trading him -- my bigger complaint was how this mostly non-prospect on the easier side of the defensive spectrum was given so many chances over the last 3 years.

This has been typical for the Twins--many chances for marginal talent.  Especially if said player had "the mark of special" on his forehead (came in a trade, 1st round draft choice).  Plouffe owes his career to the "many chances" provided policy.  I think part of this is due to preferential treatment, part due to the overall lack of talent in the organization, and the rest to resistance to admit failure.  I don't expect this will change any time soon.

[Thrylos]

That's why I'm looking forward to (or hoping that) Eddie Rosario's bat plays in 2014 because I believe his defense in LF will be above average which could make him fairly valuable there if he can hit at all.

 

I wish we were having that conversation before the 2014 season

 

I see Rosario as a centerfielder in 2015.   The Twins OF defense war horrible in 2014 in all spots.  I kinda looked at that here, using, in addition to defensive metrics, batted ball data that are really revealing.   Hopefully the new manager will not play DHs or infielders in corner OF positions (Willingham, Colabello, Parmelee, Herrmann any more)   On the other hand, based on what Ryan said about Sano, I am not holding my breath...

 

There is still hope for Arcia (and Hicks)  They are young.  If Koskie became an above average fielder, lots of things can happen, but it takes work.  And they three remaining aforementioned should go.  This team has enough DHs

[DocBauer]

To me, this is a futile discussion.  We don't yet have a manager, and the manager will have a big effect on the choice of outfielders.  We don't know if TR plans to bring in a high salary player, and if so, will it be a starter or an outfielder?  Will it be a FA or will it be obtained by trades.  Too many unknowns for this thread to be anything but the rankest of speculations. 

Of course it's a futile discussion at this point. But we have to have something to talk about before things actually heat up don't we? LOL

[DocBauer]

Who thinks Daniel Ortiz should be looked at? I mean he actually plays all outfield positions played good amount of LF last year in AA and AAA. He hit very well in AA after struggling a little bit the year earlier, he then was promoted to AAA, struggled a little bit but held his own. If you don't know who he is, you should, look him up and his stats. Also just because he isn't even on the Twins Top Prospect list (at least I don't think so?)doesn't mean he shouldn't be looked cause he's got some tools.

Ortiz

-strong arm

-some speed 7 SB

-decent power 12 HR

-needs to be more patient at the plate .303 OBP

-young (24 yrs old)

-good bat .285 AVG

I like this.

 

I've never dismissed Ortiz, but it is easy to forget about him with Hicks, Buxton, Rosario and Walker conversations. Always felt Rosario had more overall upside, but thought Ortiz could be a slightly lesser overall but similar talent option who could end being an excellent 4th OF option down the road. We might see a promotion at the end of that road with a solid season at Rochester this year.