Positional OPS and WAR

[stringer bell]

Here is where the Twins' players with the most at-bats at each position stand in OPS and WAR. I am not a huge believer in WAR because I don't believe in the defensive metrics, however I'll go with it anyway:

 

OPS:

Suzuki 2nd among qualifiers behind Gomes. If PAs is lowered to 250, he stands fourth.

Mauer 11th among qualifiers.

Dozier 4th among qualifiers.

Escobar 3rd (minimum 325 PAs)

Plouffe 7th among qualifiers

Willingham 10th (minimum 250 PAs)

Santana 2nd (!) (minimum 200 PAs)

Arcia 10th (minimum 225 PAs)

Colabello 10th (minimum of 200 PAs)

 

WAR:

 

Suzuki (2.4) 4th

Mauer (0.8) 11th

Dozier (3.4) 5th (there are five guys between 3.2 and 3.9)

Escobar (1.1) 7th (just ahead of Jeter!)

Plouffe (2.5) 4th--the three guys ahead of him all are >4.4

Willingham (1.2) 10th

Santana (1.9) 9th (lack of PAs hurts him, if he played twice as much, he might be 2nd)

Arcia (0.5) 10th

Colabello (-0.2) T8th

 

I fudged on Cola. He's played more in right and first than as a DH, but he has the ninth most PAs on the team. He profiles as a DH going forward. I subtracted his bad defense from his WAR, since DHs don't play defense.

[70charger]

Is anyone else surprised by Plouffe?

 

Also, the fact that Escobar is ahead of Jeter amuses me greatly.

[Oxtung]

I'm assuming this is just AL?

[stringer bell]

I'm assuming this is just AL?

Yes. In regard to Plouffe, there are three great third basemen (Beltre, Donaldson, and Seager) and everyone else. Plouffe rates best of everyone else after a nice little surge this week.

[Kwak]

It seems to me that the baseline for PAs should be the same for all positions.  3.1 PA per game is used as the standard for BAVG titles so it seems relevant.   Defense is relevant and may not be eliminated for comparison purposes else just use OPS.  The rankings do show that the Twins are hurting at the positions typically associated with hitting (especially SLG)--and that at least one significant upgrade is required there.

[stringer bell]

It seems to me that the baseline for PAs should be the same for all positions.  3.1 PA per game is used as the standard for BAVG titles so it seems relevant.   Defense is relevant and may not be eliminated for comparison purposes else just use OPS.  The rankings do show that the Twins are hurting at the positions typically associated with hitting (especially SLG)--and that at least one significant upgrade is required there.

I included one Twin at each position. That required lowering the PA threshold at short, and in all three OF positions. Escobar is close to qualifying, but Hammer, Arcia, and especially Santana are not that close. I agree that defense is relevant, but I really don't trust defensive metrics, especially for as short as 110 games.

[jay]

It's hard to assess the impact of injuries, playing time/platoons, multi-position players and more here.  What I do take away is that the Twins need more guys like Suzuki, Dozier and maybe even Plouffe.

[stringer bell]

It's hard to assess the impact of injuries, playing time/platoons, multi-position players and more here.  What I do take away is that the Twins need more guys like Suzuki, Dozier and maybe even Plouffe.

What I would say is that the Twins have to add some stars to the adequate players they have.

[Paul Pleiss]

The Twins need guys who can stay healthy. Say what you want about Kevin Correia, but he's stayed healthy and goes out there every 5th day. That's something to be valued, even if the results aren't good.

 

The Twins have had a messy OF situation this season, but I think there's help coming. But the Twins do need some more SLG.

 

I'd be interested to see these same rankings with OPS+

[Oxtung]

The Twins need guys who can stay healthy. Say what you want about Kevin Correia, but he's stayed healthy and goes out there every 5th day. That's something to be valued, even if the results aren't good.

 

The Twins have had a messy OF situation this season, but I think there's help coming. But the Twins do need some more SLG.

 

I'd be interested to see these same rankings with OPS+

It's amazing how two people can look at the same statistics and come to two different conclusions.  I look at these and think there is no reason to sign someone who is below average but can go everyday.  There seem to be 4 options; from best to worst:

 

1)Good player healthy all season

2/3) Good player injured part time / Bad player healthy full time

4) Bad Player injured part of season / Bad player is so bad they are released.

 

If the good player that is hurt and the Bad play that is healthy are worth roughly the same why would I ever take the bad player just because he might be "healthy"?  At least with the good "injury prone" player there is the chance of a great season.

[Paul Pleiss]

It's amazing how two people can look at the same statistics and come to two different conclusions.  I look at these and think there is no reason to sign someone who is below average but can go everyday.  There seem to be 4 options; from best to worst:

 

1)Good player healthy all season

2/3) Good player injured part time / Bad player healthy full time

4) Bad Player injured part of season / Bad player is so bad they are released.

 

If the good player that is hurt and the Bad play that is healthy are worth roughly the same why would I ever take the bad player just because he might be "healthy"?  At least with the good "injury prone" player there is the chance of a great season.

Kevin Correia is very good at baseball. He's not very good compared to the rest of the league, but his abilitty to stay healthy and put up not god awful numbers is valuable.

 

It's not just good and bad players.

 

I think Kevin Correia, as much as I am calling for his rotation spot to go to someone else, is providng the Twins value. He's not elite by any stretch of imagination, but having him go out there every 5 days and give you a chance to win 3 out of 5 starts is valuable. yes, he leads the league in losses, but the Twins offense is terrible and pitcher wins are dumb (more or less).

 

You have to take the upside on an injury prone player, but that also means having someone else who is ready to step in down in AAA or somehwere else on the roster.

 

I don't know. It's nearly 2am here in Seattle. Can't quite get my mind to push out thoughts correctly.

 

You don't always have a superstar or player with high-upside to play. Sometimes Kevin Correia is the best option, even if it's not a very good one.

[Obie]

Excellent article. Really points out the glaring holes in the lineup--the four power positions: two corner outfield spots, first base, and DH. Hopefully, Mauer and Arcia can show significant improvement next year and perhaps Vargas.

[Oxtung]

Kevin Correia is very good at baseball. He's not very good compared to the rest of the league, but his abilitty to stay healthy and put up not god awful numbers is valuable.

 

It's not just good and bad players.

 

I think Kevin Correia, as much as I am calling for his rotation spot to go to someone else, is providng the Twins value. He's not elite by any stretch of imagination, but having him go out there every 5 days and give you a chance to win 3 out of 5 starts is valuable. yes, he leads the league in losses, but the Twins offense is terrible and pitcher wins are dumb (more or less).

 

You have to take the upside on an injury prone player, but that also means having someone else who is ready to step in down in AAA or somehwere else on the roster.

 

I don't know. It's nearly 2am here in Seattle. Can't quite get my mind to push out thoughts correctly.

 

You don't always have a superstar or player with high-upside to play. Sometimes Kevin Correia is the best option, even if it's not a very good one.

 

For sure the Twins won't always have above average players in every position. However, there is a difference between calling up a minor league place holder making minimum and signing a below average aging veteran that they have to pay quite a bit for while he is, in the Twins organization at least, guaranteed a roster spot barring a complete implosion.  Kevin Correia is the later.  I honestly see nothing he provides that the Twins couldn't have gotten from a younger player that isn't guaranteed a roster spot.

[goulik]

Sano and Buxton bode well for drastically improving the overall look especially when combined with a full season of Santana and Vargas. I also believe that this year is the valuable learning year Arcia needed to become the power pull hitting RBI man in RF that we want long term. I believe he will look MUCH better on this list when the reinforcements arrive

[DaveW]

What I would say is that the Twins have to add some stars to the adequate players they have.

A healthy Mauer, Sano and Buxton could all very easily be stars.

I think the key is that the struggling positions/players such as Arcia, Hicks etc get to a level where they are at least approaching league average

[DaveW]

Kevin Correia is the later.  I honestly see nothing he provides that the Twins couldn't have gotten from a younger player that isn't guaranteed a roster spot.

I am going to disagree, you need to look no further than some of the starts the Twins got in 2013 to show you Correias value: Hernandez (12 starts), Albers (10), Walters (10), Worley (10), Hendricks (10), Walters (8), Pelfrey (29), Diamond (24) all pitched worse then Correia last year (31 starts)

This year is a bit of a different story as THANKFULLY the Twins rotation has been improved with guys like Gibson, Hughes etc However his starts still have provided a solid amount of value IMO, though I do think it is probably time for the Twins to part ways with him. Additionally, it's not like the Twins went out and signed him this year, they got him on a two year deal, in which I think he exceeded his value in 2013 and came in slightly under it so far in 2014.

[Oxtung]

I am going to disagree, you need to look no further than some of the starts the Twins got in 2013 to show you Correias value: Hernandez (12 starts), Albers (10), Walters (10), Worley (10), Hendricks (10), Walters (8), Pelfrey (29), Diamond (24) all pitched worse then Correia last year (31 starts)

This year is a bit of a different story as THANKFULLY the Twins rotation has been improved with guys like Gibson, Hughes etc However his starts still have provided a solid amount of value IMO, though I do think it is probably time for the Twins to part ways with him. Additionally, it's not like the Twins went out and signed him this year, they got him on a two year deal, in which I think he exceeded his value in 2013 and came in slightly under it so far in 2014.

Can you explain to me what the Twins actually got from those 31 starts?  I don't see the value in them I guess.

[DaveW]

Can you explain to me what the Twins actually got from those 31 starts?  I don't see the value in them I guess.

4.18 ERA. 185 IP

 

By far the most "effective" pitcher the Twins had last year. Through significantly more innings then anyone else, and the only other semi regular SP who had a better ERA was DeDuno. That has value, even on a bad team.

 

 

[Oxtung]

4.18 ERA. 185 IP

 

By far the most "effective" pitcher the Twins had last year. Through significantly more innings then anyone else, and the only other semi regular SP who had a better ERA was DeDuno. That has value, even on a bad team.

 

 

Yup those were the stats but what was the value you speak of?  In order for it to have value the Twins must have gained something.  I don't see anything gained.  I don't see the Twins are better off because of his 31 starts.

[jay]

Yup those were the stats but what was the value you speak of?  In order for it to have value the Twins must have gained something.  I don't see anything gained.  I don't see the Twins are better off because of his 31 starts.

 

Is this the "part of the future" argument?  I generally agree that should be a consideration, but it doesn't seem realisitic to think that every single rostered player is going to be under 30 and have 4-6 years of team control.

 

A case can be made that the Twins gained not having to rush their SP prospects more than they wanted to and were able to more closely follow the development path they desired.  Some here obviously don't agree with many of those paths and want every prospect here now, but to each their own. 

 

One could also make the case that the Twins gained not being forced to give more starts to AAA/AAAA filler.  Sure, one of them could turn into something but it's nearly as likely to think Correia could generate value with a career year (while being significantly more reliable).

[Thrylos]

Unlike OPS, WAR is a cumulative stat.  So if Escobar was given the SS PAs wasted on Florimon or otherwise, he would be in the 2.0s easily...   Hard to compare WARs with different PAs in this types of equations.   Might be interesting to extrapolate WARs for 600 PAs and then compare players in the same position.

 

Yeah.  Escobar (quietly) has become one of the best MLB Shortstops out there.

[ashbury]

since DHs don't play defense.

Yeah they do.  The guy you pencil into the lineup there keeps you from DHing the next worst fielder in your lineup.

 

_{^{/ kidding... or am I?}}

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Kevin Correia is very good at baseball. He's not very good compared to the rest of the league, but his abilitty to stay healthy and put up not god awful numbers is valuable.

 

It's not just good and bad players.

 

I think Kevin Correia, as much as I am calling for his rotation spot to go to someone else, is providng the Twins value. He's not elite by any stretch of imagination, but having him go out there every 5 days and give you a chance to win 3 out of 5 starts is valuable. yes, he leads the league in losses, but the Twins offense is terrible and pitcher wins are dumb (more or less).

 

You have to take the upside on an injury prone player, but that also means having someone else who is ready to step in down in AAA or somehwere else on the roster.

 

I don't know. It's nearly 2am here in Seattle. Can't quite get my mind to push out thoughts correctly.

 

You don't always have a superstar or player with high-upside to play. Sometimes Kevin Correia is the best option, even if it's not a very good one.

Having a Correia as the 5 th start

Yup those were the stats but what was the value you speak of?  In order for it to have value the Twins must have gained something.  I don't see anything gained.  I don't see the Twins are better off because of his 31 starts.

the value gained in this instance is risk aversion. The alternatives were much higher risk and same if not much lower reward

[Oxtung]

Is this the "part of the future" argument?  I generally agree that should be a consideration, but it doesn't seem realisitic to think that every single rostered player is going to be under 30 and have 4-6 years of team control.

 

A case can be made that the Twins gained not having to rush their SP prospects more than they wanted to and were able to more closely follow the development path they desired.  Some here obviously don't agree with many of those paths and want every prospect here now, but to each their own. 

 

One could also make the case that the Twins gained not being forced to give more starts to AAA/AAAA filler.  Sure, one of them could turn into something but it's nearly as likely to think Correia could generate value with a career year (while being significantly more reliable).

 

 

 

Having a Correia as the 5 th startthe value gained in this instance is risk aversion. The alternatives were much higher risk and same if not much lower reward

 

 

You both make valid points from the Twins FO perspectives.  I just disagree with them.  I think the two big kickers here for me are first, he was signed to a two year contract, and second, there were other better options (no matter what you were looking for) available.  Now not all those options panned out (though several did) but that is hind sight and irrelevant.

 

Regardless, nothing stated here makes me think signing below average veterans is a good idea.

[drjim]

 

You both make valid points from the Twins FO perspectives. I just disagree with them. I think the two big kickers here for me are first, he was signed to a two year contract, and second, there were other better options (no matter what you were looking for) available. Now not all those options panned out (though several did) but that is hind sight and irrelevant.

 

Regardless, nothing stated here makes me think signing below average veterans is a good idea.

I think we have had this debate before - but how is it irrelevant that the Twins signed the guy who stayed healthy and actually made his starts and pitched at a slightly above replacement level? How is that not part of the analysis in deciding who to sign?

 

It would be disappointing going forward, now that the Twins have 3 guys who should be #3 type pitchers in the rotation for next year, for them to sign a guy like Correia. Bit considering the ugly state of pitching in the organization going into 2013 it made some sense to have a guy like Corrria, especially considering the alternatives at the time.

 

The best part about Correia is he helped bridge these two years and now the Twins can move on.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yeah.  Escobar (quietly) has become one of the best MLB Shortstops out there.

So quietly that the Twins don't even know it, as Nunez seems to be pulling down 33-40% of the starts at short.