Oswaldo Arcia - Singleton like contract

[jorgenswest]

Oswaldo Arcia is a few months older than Jon Singleton.

 

Should the Twins be thinking about giving Arcia a similar deal?

[gunnarthor]

I'd offer it but I'm not sure he'd take it.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

He'd be a little bit crazy to take it, I think. Singleton probably cost himself some $$ at the end of that contract, but he definitely gave himself a great insurance policy.

 

Arcia has some serious power potential, and if he can start taking walks, he's going to be a real dangerous hitter in the league.

 

How many years of team control does he have left?

[The Wise One]

I think it might take a better contract. I think Arcia has put up better minor league numbers than Singleton. As he has learned to mlb parks and hitters, Arcia's defense has risen to above average bu UZR 150. His defense might not be as bad as some have said although it relies on a defensive metric and a small sample size to prove.

[sorney]

Always tough to turn down $30M...Can't hurt to see if he would take it. He *seems* to be a player that could get expensive in his arb years.

[JB_Iowa]

I think it would take substantially more. This article from Sports On Earth dissected the Singleton contract: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/78425188/jon-singleton-astros-rookie-projection-10-million-contract#!VxKMM

 

Note that Singleton was the 82nd ranked prospect at the end of last season.

 

With Arcia, he was the 41st ranked prospect prior to last season and played 97 games last year and 15 games (so far) in 2014 at the major league level.

 

Probability of success has to be significantly higher than Singleton's. In addition, the Astros tied Singleton's call-up date to signing the contract (thus avoiding Super 2 status problems, etc.)

 

Since Arcia already has some pretty significant major league service time, he is in a different place than Singleton.

 

I'm not sure what it would take to buy out his pre-arb and arbitration years but I've got a hunch it would take a significantly better deal than that extended to Singleton.

[pierre75275]

I think Pinto might be a closer comp...but he would take more i think

[kab21]

it would probably have to be a little better than Singleton's contract but not much. Arcia carries some downside but he didn't get a big bonus as an international free agent so guaranteed money would be a big deal to him.

[edavis0308]

Everyone is disregarding the fact that it was in Singleton's best interest to take the contract from his previous off the field issues also.

[Thrylos]

I really like Arcia. I love his bat, but I really do not care about his glove. Also:

 

-The Twins already have in the system a DH whose bat can play like Arcia's but from both sides and good prospects in corner OF positions coming up (Harrison, Walker, Kepler and maybe even Sano and Rosario eventually)

 

-they have 4 years of team control

 

-He lost so much playing time the last 3 seasons with little injuries, including an off-season elbow nerve debridgement surgery (what Pelfrey had) and a diagnosis of UCL strain that was not treated surgically

 

I just don't think that it is smart for the Twins to pull the trigger right now.

[70charger]

Everyone is disregarding the fact that it was in Singleton's best interest to take the contract from his previous off the field issues also.

 

Am I in the minority in thinking that this deal was in his best interests anyway, regardless of whether he might be able to make a few more million somewhere down the line without this contract? And that guys like Longoria aren't really "giving money away"?

 

Maybe it's my natural financial conservatism, but $30 million is "**** you money." One injury can end a career in a second and you're still set for life. What's the alternative? Hope that nothing goes wrong for the next seven years? I get that you should gamble on yourself, but I dont make gambles I can't afford to lose. When $30 million is on the table I'm taking it.

 

He didn't give money away. He purchased a very favorable insurance policy. He got his and his family's financial security for a lifetime at the price of a speculation.

[twinsfan34]

Am I in the minority in thinking that this deal was in his best interests anyway, regardless of whether he might be able to make a few more million somewhere down the line without this contract? And that guys like Longoria aren't really "giving money away"?

 

Maybe it's my natural financial conservatism, but $30 million is "**** you money." One injury can end a career in a second and you're still set for life. What's the alternative? Hope that nothing goes wrong for the next seven years? I get that you should gamble on yourself, but I dont make gambles I can't afford to lose. When $30 million is on the table I'm taking it.

 

He didn't give money away. He purchased a very favorable insurance policy. He got his and his family's financial security for a lifetime at the price of a speculation.

 

I agree with you Singleton didn't have a MLB at bat yet. He was a pot smoking violation from a year ban (would kill his development and give him time to smoke more weed). So for him, he can walk away with money and be ok still. Arcia, man, if the guy gains some patience/control of the strike zone....he's a .280 30+ HR guy annually.

[JB_Iowa]

Am I in the minority in thinking that this deal was in his best interests anyway, regardless of whether he might be able to make a few more million somewhere down the line without this contract? And that guys like Longoria aren't really "giving money away"?

 

I think there is a lot of sentiment among "ordinary people" (like us) that this would have been hard to pass up. You're right to call it an "insurance policy" and since it is for his pre-arb/arb years, he will still have the opportunity to cash in if he makes it to free agent land.

 

But, despite the fact that he also didn't have a big signing bonus, I think it would take more to buy out Arcia's years based on where he is in the process.

 

It is going to be interesting to see how this type of offer plays out in the next few years (and the union's ongoing response to them). Apparently the Astros are making a real effort to utilize the process with their young players/prospects. Some will work out for the team, some won't but it looks like from the team's standpoint that they are hedging their bets that the ones that don't work out will be easily covered by the savings from the ones that do.

[JP3700]

I think part of the disconnect is the actual figures. Singleton only received $10 million guaranteed, not $30 million.

 

Arcia would take $30 million in a heartbeat. Starling Marte only got $31 million over six years with 1+ year of service time. Which is what Arcia would have at the end of this season.

[70charger]

I think part of the disconnect is the actual figures. Singleton only received $10 million guaranteed, not $30 million.

 

Arcia would take $30 million in a heartbeat. Starling Marte only got $31 million over six years with 1+ year of service time. Which is what Arcia would have at the end of this season.

 

Did I get my figures wrong? Or is $30 million the total including team options?

 

In any case (and this is coming from a guy without even a $10 bat much less a $10 million bat), that kind of money is hard to pass up considering that no one really knows yet whether you're any good.

[JB_Iowa]

Did I get my figures wrong? Or is $30 million the total including team options?

 

Exact details:

 

He will receive $1.5 million in total compensation this year, and salaries of $2 million in each of the next four seasons. The Astros have a $2.5 million option for 2019 with a $500,000 buyout. If that is exercised, the club has a $5 million option for 2020 with a $250,000 buyout. Houston also has a $13 million option for 2021 with a $250,000 buyout.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11021397/jon-singleton-signs-long-term-deal-houston-astros

 

A couple of pretty good discussions of the issues:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/06/03/at-least-one-major-leaguer-is-not-pleased-with-the-jon-singleton-deal/

 

http://twinsdaily.com/twins-talk/5393-spring-training-game-6-twins-vs-orioles-thurs-february-28-2013-a.html

 

 

It really isn't cut-and-dried from either side -- which is probably what made Singleton take the deal whereas a couple of his co-prospects with Houston apparently passed up similar deals.

[JB_Iowa]

Essentially, he gave up a lot of birds in the bush for $10 million birds in the hand.

 

I can understand that (and that was part of Calcaterra's point in the Hardball talk article).

 

It really depends on how much the player is willing to gamble on himself and an overall assessment of the fincancials (the Sports on Earth article).

[Paul Pleiss]

I agree with everything Thrylos said, which doesn't happen often, but he's spot on here. No need to sign Arcia to an extension just yet, especially with his history of injuries. Let's see what he's done at the end of the year and readdress. Same goes for Brian Dozier. Let's not rush into this, otherwise Twins Territory will end up hating these guys the way they hate Mauer just because he got PAID.

[kab21]

It all depends just how favorable the contract is for the team. Singleton's contract is incredibly favorable if he is simply an average player. And if he sucks then 2M/yr max is sunk. That is pocket change.