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Mauer Making Us Reconsider The Hall


Ted Schwerzler

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10 seasons into his Major League Baseball career, Joe Mauer was a number one overall pick playing for the hometown team, and owned the title of being the best catcher in the sport. Across that span, he had played in 1,178 games slashing .323/.405/.468. With awards piling up, it seemed certain a career was destined to be capped off with a Hall of Fame ceremony, the a traumatic brain injury occurred. Things have been different since, but in 2017, the Twins long tenured star is forcing us to reconsider.

 

There's next to no argument that can be made against Mauer's first ten years in the big leagues being among the best we've ever seen from a catcher. He piled up three batting titles, and MVP award, three Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and six All Star Game appearances. Despite playing arguably the most demanding position on the diamond, he was among the best players on either team on a nightly basis.

 

Since 2013, Mauer's post playing accolades have become murky. Dealing with the lingering effects of a career-altering injury, he's been a shell of his former self. Forced into a positional switch playing first base, he profiles oddly for the position as he's never been the traditional power hitter. From 2014 onwards, his slash line has dipped to a more human .275/.360/.388. There have been no awards handed out, and he has put forth just one season above 1.6 fWAR (the current one, in 2017).

 

Now, looking at his career arc as a whole, Mauer presents an interesting case for Hall of Fame enshrinement. First and foremost, the largest caveat remains that his playing career is not over, and may be far from reaching that point. With another year left on his current deal in Minnesota, and good reason to continue playing (at least briefly) beyond that, we're not in a place for definitive conclusions. That being said, 2017 has presented us an opportunity to take another look at what could become a compelling case.

 

Knowing what the numbers are, Mauer likely is never going to hit the "automatics." While he'll surpass 2,000 hits, he won't reach 3,000. He's not going to hit 500 homers, and and he may not even reach 1,000 RBI. His case for a plaque really never hinged on those targets anyways though, so let's take a look at what matters.

 

Assuming he never wins another, Mauer's three batting titles put him in rare air. he's only the third catcher in history to win a batting title, the first since 1942, and the only ever for the America League. With three batting titles to his credit, only 14 players in the history of the sport have repeated as winners more often than the Twins star. Somewhat of a throw in for his batting title years (and one extra), he also has four Silver Slugger awards.

 

Looking at his MVP award, Mauer also profiles rather favorably. Getting the nod in 2009, he became the first catcher to accept the honor since Ivan Rodriguez in 1999. Only 17 catchers have ever taken home the hardware, and only five have done so since 1970. Most backstops are brought in for their defensive acumen, or the ability to hit for power. Mauer combined both in 2009, and as a catcher, was a threat both with the bat and the glove.

 

That takes us to arguably the most compelling award, the Gold Glove. Mauer tallied three of them behind the plate. Only 11 catchers in the awards history have won more Gold Gloves than Mauer. Three is an impressive total on its own, but it's what Mauer is positioned to do in 2017 that takes thing up a notch. Joining Placido Polanco and Darin Erstad, the Twins (now) first basemen, would be just the third player in history to win a Gold Glove at two different positions. He would also be the first player in history to win Gold Gloves at catcher, and any other position.

 

Statistically speaking, Mauer is going to have a hard case to make. Since 2013 and going forward, his career is far from what it was. However, he'll likely still end his time in the majors with a solid .300+ average, and his fWAR will still do some good. Currently he has composed a career mark checking in above Hall of Famers such as Ralph Kiner, Kirby Puckett, Phil Rizzuto, Roy Campanella, and Lou Brock. What needs to be his calling card however, is what could have been, and the hardware that is.

 

There's no telling whether or not Mauer can put up another Gold Glove caliber season at first base. He's still young enough, and has looked incredible in the role this year. Whether or not that happens depends on usage and how he ages. Right now though, assuming the award is properly distributed in 2017, the Minnesota natives case for The Hall just got a lot more interesting.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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This is great stuff. Couple things to add ... 

 

If you take a look at Jay Jaffee's JAWS system, Mauer is the top-ranked catcher who's not currently in the HoF. He sits right between HoF Yankee legends Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey. That ranking system does include all Mauer's time at first base, but obviously the majority of his value was generated when he was a catcher.

 

Also listed at that b-ref link I provided is WAR7, a sum of the top seven seasons per WAR for each player. The average HoF catcher earned 34.4 WAR over their best seasons. Mauer had 38.5. 

 

From 2014 (when he moved to 1B) to today, Mauer has a .326 wOBA, 103 wRC+ and 105 OPS+. No, those aren't anything close to HoF numbers, but it's not like he's done anything to damage the case he built during his catching days. 

 

I certainly don't think Joe will be a first-ballot guy, but I think he gets in. 

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This is great stuff. Couple things to add ... 

 

If you take a look at Jay Jaffee's JAWS system, Mauer is the top-ranked catcher who's not currently in the HoF. He sits right between HoF Yankee legends Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey. That ranking system does include all Mauer's time at first base, but obviously the majority of his value was generated when he was a catcher.

 

Also listed at that b-ref link I provided is WAR7, a sum of the top seven seasons per WAR for each player. The average HoF catcher earned 34.4 WAR over their best seasons. Mauer had 38.5. 

 

From 2014 (when he moved to 1B) to today, Mauer has a .326 wOBA, 103 wRC+ and 105 OPS+. No, those aren't anything close to HoF numbers, but it's not like he's done anything to damage the case he built during his catching days. 

 

I certainly don't think Joe will be a first-ballot guy, but I think he gets in. 

I think the larger trend towards numbers based BBWAA voting, the better chance he has. Given what was, and the continued upward trend of 1B production, I've gained more confidence about his inclusion. Think he's somewhere around a 5th try inductee seems fair.

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This season solidifies Mauer in the Hall but not on the first ballot.  If Joe puts up just one more season above .290 (presuming he does that this year and that additional year), and continues to field well, he starts to get into a first ballot HOF conversation.   His years as a catcher were so phenomenal that a resurgence this year makes the HOF likely.

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I have no doubt that  Joe will be in the HOF. He has very good numbers that match up well with current members. He has played terrific defense at both catcher and 1st base. He has also contributed to the community.

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If Joe's numbers continue to trend positively 2017 and beyond, hopefully the voters will take the statistically weak 'concussion years' into consideration as down statistical years and not hold those years against Joe. Some postseason success and maybe hoisting a World Series trophy woud also be an intangible help to Joe's HOF case.

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I think it's much more realistic to consider that this year has not HURT Joe's chances.  This year arrests the rate at which his career numbers were diminishing in stature.  The only way it HELPS is if the voters don't notice he was a first baseman in 2017.  An .810 OPS/117 OPS+ does not contribute to a hall-of-fame case for a first baseman.  At all.  For example, Kent Hrbek had about 10 years that were better than that.  And no, Joe is not better defensively than Hrbek was at that position.  If Joe makes it, it will be on the basis of what he did at catcher for 8 seasons from 2006 to 2103.  Was it long enough?  It hurts that even that 8 year stretch included 3 seasons where he didn't complete the year.  The voters don't get into the business of projecting what your career would have been without the injuries.  (See Oliva, Tony)

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I think it's much more realistic to consider that this year has not HURT Joe's chances.  This year arrests the rate at which his career numbers were diminishing in stature.  The only way it HELPS is if the voters don't notice he was a first baseman in 2017.  An .810 OPS/117 OPS+ does not contribute to a hall-of-fame case for a first baseman.  At all.  For example, Kent Hrbek had about 10 years that were better than that.  And no, Joe is not better defensively than Hrbek was at that position.  If Joe makes it, it will be on the basis of what he did at catcher for 8 seasons from 2006 to 2103.  Was it long enough?  It hurts that even that 8 year stretch included 3 seasons where he didn't complete the year.  The voters don't get into the business of projecting what your career would have been without the injuries.  (See Oliva, Tony)

 

Sorry but I have to disagree, even though I think Hrbek is top 5 Defensive 1B all time. Joe will never be thought of this way but I have no doubt IF he had switched to 1B early in his career he would be considered as the best ever defensive 1B all time. Keith Hernandez currently holds that "title" but I would put Todd Helton, Mark Grace, Don Mattinly and Hrbek as right there in the conversation. If Joe would have  moved at 25 there would be no conversation, almost like SS or 3B although Nolan Arenado is making a run at maybe being in the conversation at 3B.

 

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