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Fixing The Mound For Minnesota


Ted Schwerzler

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We're well past the halfway point in the 2017 Major League Baseball season. With the Minnesota Twins now looking at both the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians above them in the AL Central, growth is more the focus than the playoffs the rest of the way. Once again this season, pitching has been a problem for the Twins, and 2018 can be a tide turning moment.

 

For the past handful of years, the Twins have found themselves in a circular state of rebuild. There's been bumps in the road however as management has made missteps in acquiring free agents, and development on the mound hasn't been what you'd have hoped. In 2018, the Twins will be looking at a division full of opportunity, and a lineup ready for a pitching staff to support. Through moves the rest of the way, and over the winter, they can blaze a new trail in the year ahead.

 

By the end of the week, Paul Molitor's club will have run out 12 different starting pitchers in 2017. That's a high number for the season in total, and being it's only July, something the club will want to avoid a year from now. Looking for five guys to round out a playoff contender in 2018, here's who the Twins should be considering:

 

Jose Berrios

 

Start first and foremost with the internal options. Berrios has come into his own in 2017, and while he hasn't been consistently lights out, he's shown the ability in short bursts. Through 14 starts, Berrios has tallied a 3.76 ERA and an 8.4 K/9 to pair with a 2.7 BB/9. You'd still like to see a heightened level of command, but he's been much more good than bad.

 

Adalberto Mejia

 

Arguably one the greatest return in a trade for Minnesota in quite some time, Mejia has looked the part of a rotation fixture. He doesn't have a high ceiling, but at the back of the group, you could do a whole lote worse. Through 15 starts he owns a 4.10 ERA and has compiled a 7.6 K/9 to go with a 4.1 BB/9. Pitch economy is something he's struggled with this season, and he'll need to limit high counts and walks to take the next step forward. Still just 24, there's plenty of reason to believe he's capable.

 

High-Level Free Agent

 

For all of the hand-wringing the past few seasons in regards to not spending or acquiring talent, 2018 represents Minnesota's first true opportunity to be open for criticism. With a lineup ready to take the next step, and plenty of money coming off the books, there's zero reason not to spend and supplement from outside. Adding a big name hurler isn't going to come cheap, but there's a few sensible options out there. Thad Levine has familiarity going for him with Yu Darvish, and while 2017 hasn't been great for Jake Arrieta, the Cubs pitcher could be a good option as well.

 

Mid-Level Free Agent

 

If the Twins don't trade Ervin Santana, and I'd be in favor of them doing so barring a fair return, then they'll need another similar type of arm. Santana has flashed some really good stretches, and putting someone of similar ability in front of the Twins defense could produce consistent results as well. Names among this group probably include Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, Lance Lynn, Tyler Chatwood, or Alex Cobb

 

A Fight For The Fifth

 

Rounding out the group, Minnesota could call upon their depth. Trevor May is probably the most talented among the group, but remains a question mark in coming back from Tommy John surgery. Top prospects like Stephen Gonsalves and Fernado Romero will factor in here, and getting them exposure in 2017 seems like a good plan of action. A holdover like Kyle Gibson could make sense if the Twins bring him back as well.

 

Entering the 2018 slate, it remains apparent that the biggest detriment to Minnesota taking the next step is on the mound. The core for a solid team is there, and the division presents opportunity. Adding from the outside and committing to go for it seems like the logical path to travel. Now let's hope something similar takes place.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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Berrios looks like a pro, although the scouting projection of him topping out as a #3 are looking more likely IMO.

 

Mejia is frustrating. I really, really hope someone forces him to cut 25 pounds over the winter and field his position better. He has a good slider, decent velo, and that's enough to get by most of the time. He just leaves too many outs on the field due to poor fielding of his position. Cutting weight might help him go deeper as well.

 

I don't expect big Erv to throw multiple CGSO's in a season for the rest of his career. He's still okay, but peripherals (and age) suggest he could be nearing the beginning of the beginning of the end.

 

Gibson and May are complete non-factors as far as the rotation goes IMO. So they have two spots to fill in free agency, one of which I expect to be Garcia, on a 2-3 year deal probably.

 

They really need to go big on the other one to have a prayer. Get Otani or Darvish. It'll never happen of course, but that should be the penalty for a decade of ineptitude with developing pitching internally.

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With a smaller payroll than last season, money coming off the books in various installments, and a below median leave average payroll, and with this young core developing, it is time to haul a big to semi big fish for the rotation!

 

Can Berrios develop in to a true #1? Absolutely! Eventually maybe. I love what I see. But nobody can reasonably predict that, and it's not fair for a young guy to be pegged like that. But he's absolutely good, talented, and will only get better.

 

Personally, I am against trading Santana unless an offer is just too good to pass up. We need pitching so we trade a still really good, really solid 2-3 starter? I say no. And with the young talent on its way, and by acquiring a top level FA, you keep your prospects intact for his replacement via development or future trade.

 

Really like what I see in Mejia. But again, very young, only a rookie. The pitch economy will come with time and experience.

 

5th spot? Can't count on May anytime soon. Too much expectation for the prospects? A solid probably. If Garcia looks good and likes his 2 months in Minnesota, I'd push for a re-sign. Gibson could be a fallback if the rest of the season he shows any sort of the life he's shown more recently.

 

Keep what you have. Add the big FA. Keep the guy you just traded for. And AAA will have real depth to call on and call up. You might even have surplus value at some point in 2018 to trade away.

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May will need to build up arm strength. So he's not a regular until 2019. He might flip between spot starts and long relief if the timetable works for 2018.

 

Gonsalves and Romero (and Jorge) will still be on innings limits and will be in AAA and on the call-up list.

 

So, yes...we have Berrios and Mejia and whomever we can cull from free agency. 

 

Of course, given some of the names, we might be better set to go with Slegers and Hurlbut and Eades for the near future.

 

I'm not looking forward to the off-season.

 

I'm looking forward to August to see if there is a smidgen of interest in any of our players as waiver claims, just to free up salary and roster space - Santiago, Gibson, Grossman, Andrienza, Belisle, Gimenez for starters.

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