Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • entries
    891
  • comments
    3,675
  • views
    1,590,998

How To Stop The May Fallout


Ted Schwerzler

1,800 views

 Share

Twins Video

Having spent time at spring training down in Fort Myers last week, the Twins came off with a process that looked poised to process better results. 2017 has been looking like a season in which Minnesota could turn the page from an ugly 103 loss a season ago. Then, upon returning to Minnesota, the news that Trevor May's season would now be over had hit. What happens now?

 

After looking back through some of my tweets from Minnesota's exhibition against Team USA, it seems I had been aware of what really was unknown. Sitting around 95 mph on his fastball at the start of the game, May's velocity dipped to 91-92 mph in short order. It was later revealed that in a pitch midway through his outing, he blew out his UCL. Now destined for Tommy John surgery, the Twins must pick up the pieces and ask themselves what's next.

 

I had Trevor May penciled in as the team's fifth starter. He wasn't going back to the bullpen with his back issues, and he offered legitimate upside in the rotation. While that now isn't going to happen, the list of candidates to take his place is long. Everyone from Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Justin Haley to Ryan Vogelsong, Tyler Duffey, and Nick Tepesch should be in play. For Molitor's squad though, I think the narrative is less about the next man up than it is the men already involved.

 

There has long been little doubt that Phil Hughes, Hector Santiago, or Kyle Gibson would be in the Twins Opening Day rotation. Each of those three was a lock, and they'd be joining Opening Day starter Ervin Santana. What becomes integral now is that the trio elevate themselves to pick up the slack.

 

First and foremost, Hughes has to show his injury is behind him. Over the course of the spring, a lot had been made of Hughes' velocity, and for good reason. After undergoing Thoracic Outlet surgery, he's seen a visible decline in the speed of his fastball. For a guy that doesn't blow batters away, losing any competitive advantage isn't ideal.

 

Last season, Hughes turned in just 59 innings before ending his season. He had already given up 11 homers, after surrendering a league worst 29 the season before, and his walk rate had doubled (but still respectable at 2.0 BB/9). Hughes hasn't given Minnesota more than 5.4 K/9 since his incredibly debut season, and he'll need to be better than his low water mark this time around. Minnesota isn't going to bank on him to be that Cy Young type pitcher he was in 2014, but he must have an ERA right under 4.00 and strike out at least six per nine. It's a big ask for a guy with a lot of question marks, but the Twins can't have him do less now.

 

That brings us to Hector Santiago, who's done little to put himself in good graces since getting to Minnesota. The Twins are paying him virtually the same $12 million that Ricky Nolasco took up, and his numbers haven't been heartwarming. After coming over from Los Angeles last season, Santiago owned a 5.58 ERA and gave up 13 long balls (to total 33 on the year).

 

The addition of Jason Castro should help Santiago. Kurt Suzuki wasn't going to do him favors behind the dish, and a pitcher who has given up 62 homers since 2015 needs every advantage he can muster. Again, the Twins won't be counting on the 2015 All Star version of the former Angels pitcher, but they need him to pitch like he deserves to be in the rotation as opposed to an arbitration casualty.

 

Finally, the biggest boost from the group could come from home grown Kyle Gibson. The former first round pick has been a breakout candidate for the past two years now, and it just hasn't come together. After an exciting 2015, Gibson took a big step back in 2016, and that needs to reverse its course. Despite owning a 5.07 ERA last season, it was the 4.70 FIP that did him in. Owning strikeout and walk totals in line with his career norms, Gibson wasn't doing himself any favors with an already shaky defense.

 

Molitor's sinkerballer needs to put himself in good situations and capitalize on them. Through early spring action, he's arguably looked the best of all Twins starters, and while results aren't much to get hung up on, his process and efficiency have been notable as well. If Gibson can emerge as the ace of the Twins staff, and take the reigns from Ervin Santana, the rotation group will be elevated beyond what the loss of May likely is.

 

At the end of the day, Minnesota not having Trevor May in the rotation to begin the year is an unfortunate development. No matter who fills his shoes however, it's going to be on the cast of the already assumed starters that will need to pick up the slack. What kind of upside Minnesota's 5th starter possesses was always going to be a wild card, but the margin for error is now markedly smaller.

 

Time to see who can pick their teammate up.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

 Share

2 Comments


Recommended Comments

This is incredibly bad news, not only for May of course, but for the Twins. I really hate to re-visit the past, but he lost real development time in 2015 with the inexcusable decision to move him instead of Pelfrey to the pen. One guy had 2 pitches and was struggling and would not be back with the team, and one had a better miss of pitches and upside. Huge blunder. Then May lost development time in 2016 for an even greater blunder. Now he misses all of 2017.

 

I firmly believed two things:

 

1] May was going to be solid in the rotation, and get better as the season went along and he got more and more comfortable, establishing himself as a solid starter. (Though I did worry a bit about wearing down late in the season after his limited IP the past year and a half).

 

2] My expectations for May would make it all the much easier to move Santiago to allow for room for Berrios or Mejia at some point.

 

What a massive, massive bummer.

 

As to your other points, I think Santana will still be solid. (Though May's injury could halt any potential trade during the season now). I also believe Gibson will make a strong comeback. How strong, of course, is to be determined. I am also currently surprised by Hughes and fairly impressed FOR NOW by what he is doing. I honestly thought he was a dark horse before ST began and thought for sure he would begin the season in EST before a month of rehab assignments. Instead, he feels good, is throwing free and easy, working a lot on his change, and hitting low 90's. Many pitchers ramp up velocity, and IIRC, Hughes has usually been one of those guys. He's been getting ahead of hitters and throwing a good number of strikes. A few bombs or bad offering while working so hard on his change doesn't bother me FOR NOW.

 

If there could be any sort of silver lining to the May's injury, it would be that it came early, and seems to be a "clean" injury, and could allow for a allow for a better/earlier/longer audition for young arms like Berrios or Mejia.

Link to comment

 

 I am also currently surprised by Hughes and fairly impressed FOR NOW by what he is doing. I honestly thought he was a dark horse before ST began and thought for sure he would begin the season in EST before a month of rehab assignments. Instead, he feels good, is throwing free and easy, working a lot on his change, and hitting low 90's. Many pitchers ramp up velocity, and IIRC, Hughes has usually been one of those guys. He's been getting ahead of hitters and throwing a good number of strikes. A few bombs or bad offering while working so hard on his change doesn't bother me FOR NOW.

 

I agree.  It looks like he might pitch and might not be a disaster, and I saw the FB velocity as an encouraging sign, not a red flag. Like you said, many pitchers ramp it up, and Hughes said he wasn't throwing at his max yet.

Link to comment
Guest
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...