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The 25 Headed To Target Field


Ted Schwerzler

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The Minnesota Twins are quickly closing in on an end to the offseason. With pitchers and catchers reporting to sunny Fort Myers in short order, Paul Molitor and the Twins brass will need to evaluate who they take north to start the 2017 season. Projecting the 25 man roster in January once again leaves plenty of room for shifting, but I'll try to sort through what I see happening.

 

This offseason, Brian Dozier had been the talk of the town in regards to a potential trade with the Dodgers. He's not going anywhere now, and it would seem, for the foreseeable future. With that in mind, here's the 25 guys I believe Paul Molitor is best positioned to win with in 2017 assuming Derek Falvey and Thad Levine hold onto their second basemen.

 

Rotation (5)

  • Ervin Santana
  • Phil Hughes
  • Kyle Gibson
  • Hector Santiago
  • Trevor May

The biggest question mark here is Phil Hughes. Coming off Thoracic Outlet surgery, his health remains a major question. Players heal differently, and the surgery isn't one that has been perfected on baseball players by any means. I think he goes out of the gate, and the hope would be that his troubles are behind him health wise.

 

If Hughes is unable to stake claim to a rotation spot, I'd look next at Nick Tepesch, Adalberto Mejia and Jose Berrios with the latter holding a slight advantage. In reality, I think both start at Triple-A. Gibson, Santana, and Santiago are locks, unless Minnesota decides to make a late play on trading Ervin (which I'd support). Trevor May has worked as a reliever for much of the last two seasons now, but his back simply can't hack it. He may not be as dominant strikeout wise as a starter, but I think it's the best role for him to consistently contribute.

 

A year ago, the Twins had the worst starting rotation in baseball and it wasn't particularly close. It shouldn't be that bad again, but this group being around league average is quite a stretch too.

 

Starting Lineup (9)

  • Jason Castro C
  • Joe Mauer 1B
  • Brian Dozier 2B
  • Jorge Polanco SS
  • Miguel Sano 3B
  • Eddie Rosario LF
  • Byron Buxton CF
  • Max Kepler RF
  • Byungho Park DH

Most of this should be pretty expected. Castro was brought in to start, and Dozier keeps the duo with Polanco up the middle if he stays. I'd like to see Mauer play less, but he remains the club's best defensive first basemen. Sano should settle into third a bit more, and the outfield should be pretty much set. I could see Molitor going Grossman in left over Rosario, but I think you start with the upside play of Rosario.

 

The one player that I continue to be higher on than everyone else is Byungho Park. I think there was a lot more to the wrist injury last year than we were told, and I'd be far from surprised to see him have a bounce back season. KBO players have fared well in the big leagues, and being the best over there, should give him a fighting chance.

 

Ideally, I'd rather not have Polanco playing shortstop, but Dozier would need to be moved for that to happen. Sano also has to get significantly better defensively this season if he's going to help Twins pitchers out.

 

Bench (4)

  • Eduardo Escobar
  • Robbie Grossman
  • Mitch Garver
  • Zach Granite

This is probably the toughest area thus far to nail down just because of what options the Twins have at their disposal. I'd consider both Escobar and Grossman to be locks, but from there things get dicey. For the backup catcher role, John Ryan Murphy, Mitch Garver, and Chris Gimenez will need to battle it out. Gimenez has a leg up with Falvey, while Murphy was brought in by the former regime. I'm going with the offensive play here though, and believed that Garver deserved a shot last season. It's time he gets it.

 

I really wrestled with the last spot, and Granite ends up getting the nod for me. J.B. Shuck was worth -13 DRS over 60 games in CF for the White Sox last season. I like Daniel Palka a lot, but he can't play centerfield, and Danny Santana offers little in the way of offense or defense at this point. Granite would be making a big jump from Double-A, and he really only started to hit last season. That said, he'll steal bases, can be a pinch runner, and give Minnesota elite defense at all three outfield spots off of the bench.

 

Bullpen (7)

  • Brandon Kintzler Closer
  • Ryan Pressly Setup
  • J.T. Chargois Setup
  • Taylor Rogers
  • Michael Tonkin
  • Tyler Duffey
  • Justin Haley

There's a pretty glaring omission here, and that's by design. I'm not counting on Glen Perkins to be back for the Twins on Opening Day, and I'm far from certain as to what he'll give them throughout the season. Perkins underwent serious shoulder surgery in which he required his labrum being reattached to his shoulder. I'd love to see him return, look like an All Star, and be a potential trade chip to a contender in July. I just don't see it happening.

 

That being said, the closer incumbent is Brandon Kintzler. He's not an ideal fit in that he doesn't get the ball by anyone. He struck out just 5.8 per nine last season, but he also walked just 1.3 per nine. I'd rather get Kintzler to a lower leverage role, and I think the emergence of J.T. Chargois can accomplish that. I like Pressly a lot and think he also could factor into save situations for the Twins.

 

Taylor Rogers and Michael Tonkin return with both being reliable if not incredibly high ceiling options. By moving Duffey back to the pen, he settles into a scenario that he's familiar with having been a college reliever. His limited pitch repertoire should play up more in relief, and he could be a dominant arm. Rounding out the group, and operating as the long man, is Justin Haley. Selected with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft, Haley doesn't have an incredible ceiling, but should have a pretty safe floor.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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I think you're pretty much right on – except for two things.

 

I think Vielma will edge Granite for the fourth bench spot; I think they will need a better backup infielder, rather than a fifth outfielder.

 

And I would not be surprised to see May in the bullpen, and Haley as the starter. To me this is almost a coin-toss, but May has struggled as a starter in the past. While his back issues may be linked to being a relief pitcher, I really don't see that as an issue. It'll depend a lot on how the two do in spring training...

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I think you're pretty much right on – except for two things.

 

I think Vielma will edge Granite for the fourth bench spot; I think they will need a better backup infielder, rather than a fifth outfielder.

 

And I would not be surprised to see May in the bullpen, and Haley as the starter. To me this is almost a coin-toss, but May has struggled as a starter in the past. While his back issues may be linked to being a relief pitcher, I really don't see that as an issue. It'll depend a lot on how the two do in spring training...

 

Vielma is someone I think makes the team if Dozier is dealt. Should the Twins go that route, I'd be far from disappointed if they have him start with Polanco up the middle.

 

I'd much prefer May in the pen, but given his back issues, and the relative big ask to have Haley gonroght to the rotation, I kept it as is.

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Nice article. Thanks.

 

I think that the omission of Buddy Boshers is a mistake. He had a 1.167 WHIP with 9.3 K/9 and a 2.84 FIP.  According to FanGraphs (for RP with >30 innings in 2016) he was behind Pressly and Rogers but ahead of Kintzler, May and Tonkin (as well as Abad and Jepson).

 

His minor league numbers also suggest this was not an outlier year.

 

Also, I'm hoping to see Shaggy as a closer before late 2018.

 

Really don't know what to say about May.  I really like him but I'm not so sure a move to the starting rotation is going to go as well as many seem to hope.

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