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Does Top Pick Territory Salvage Season?


Ted Schwerzler

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If you're still following along with the Twins, you've nearly made it through the 2016 Major League Baseball season. Just 19 games remain, and Minnesota needs to win 10 of them to avoid 100 losses for just the second time in franchise history, and first since 1982. To be sure, a year full of losing is far from fun, but does a top pick in the upcoming draft make it feel any less gloomy?

 

Baseball is a different beast than basketball and football. While the top pick in the draft holds immense value, it generally isn't realized at the top level for at least a year or two, and the draft itself doesn't take place until well into the next season. For Minnesota, plenty will change by the time June 2017 comes around.

 

With Terry Ryan fired midway through the current 162 game schedule, Jim Pohlad and Dave St. Peter are in the process of finding a replacement head honcho (or, as we've learned, a duo). The Twins will have a new Head of Baseball Operations, as well as a new General Manager by the time the 2017 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft rolls around. Paul Molitor may very well be gone, and the hope would be that the on field product shows significantly better than it has this season.

 

For Minnesota, 2016 was another year of the prospect. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and even Byungho Park were supposed to lead this group. Instead, their were injuries, failed expectations, and regression for what can be described as the Twins future. Although the offense was expected to carry this club, it was nowhere to be seen out of the gate.

 

Now with the writing already on the wall, the only thing left for the Twins to do is finish. It's largely understood what has all taken place for Paul Molitor's club this season. What's next is what comes as a result of the final standings. If the year were to end today, that would include the Twins drafting first overall next June.

 

The Braves currently are two games clear of the Twins when it comes to record. I'm not sure there's a determination to "tank" as there may be in other sports, but Minnesota could have their choice if things stand pat. By the looks of most national experts, there doesn't appear to be a consensus top pick in the upcoming draft. Undoubtedly there's a few names that will rise to the top, but all will have their detractors (however slight they may be).

 

Unlike in sports such as basketball or football, it's hard to suggest that a first overall pick gives something back to such a horrendous season. Mentioned on the broadcast during the recent Cubs and Astros series, you can bet that Houston wishes they would've selected Kris Bryant over Mark Appel with their recent first overall pick. The stories of the big miss are many, and the sure thing first selection are few and far between.

 

When it comes down to it, the Twins won't have much to hang their hats on as the 2016 dust settles. The first overall pick is definitely an exciting and welcomed consolation prize, but it will be in the hiring of front office executives, and the retooling of the organization that the true forward progress is felt.

 

Reality probably suggests that the Twins did this to themselves. They stuck by Terry Ryan and his country club ways for a little bit too long, and it has the year ending with some significant emptiness. His parting gift will likely end up being a top three draft pick, but if Minnesota is looking to hang their hats on something, expecting it to be a relative unknown is probably not a good proposition.

 

When June rolls around, the first overall pick will have plenty of merit attached to it, but how much excitement it generates will largely be determined by who the Twins put in charge of making those decisions.

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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"When it comes down to it, the Twins won't have much to hang their hats on as the 2016 dust settles. The first overall pick is definitely an exciting and welcomed consolation prize, but it will be in the hiring of front office executives, and the retooling of the organization that the true forward progress is felt." >>>>>>>

 

I truly hope your are correct. I hope that it works out. But mind these two cautionary points. 1. Many, myself definitely included, thought it was time to move on from Gardy. What could be worse. Well now we know. It's not even the fact they aren't winning, I have coached enough to know players win most games, not managers. It's the sloppy way the players play the game, the inconsistent handling of players based on what appears to be favoritism, and a seeming lack of any kind of an idea where he wants to play people. 2. We seem to be totally disregarding who owns this team. What the past has shown of the Pohlad evaluation process, and what level the bar is set for success? And those items are not encouraging. Remember this simple fact. These hires, and I mean both of them, will be made by and/or with Jim Pohlads input, and blessing. His view of a successful baseball franchise has, at least up till now, not reflected what most would hope and expect, unless you are an accountant. Let's use the Vikings move to Speilman and Zimmer as a reference point. I don't put the odds at 20% JP makes a hire that will positively impact the Twins to the extent that those two have impacted the Vikings. Ownership counts. Ziggi is a lot of things, but he wants to win, of that there is no dispute. I would doubt that you can find one person in MN who could justifiably quantitate that trait so far in the operation of the Twins by the Pohlad family!

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Unfortunately there doesn't appear to be a Harper/Strasburg no brainer #1 pick in 2017. Of course that could change, and I'm not actively searching for 2017 draft prospects yet. God, the Twins can't even tank right!! :) 

Your line at the end is what's most important to most, I would imagine. If the front office goes outside and re-calibrates the structure, I'll be happy with that kind of progress. 

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Short answer...no. Long answer...it helps ease the pain. And as of now, there don't seem to be any names to place at the top of the draft list. But the June draft is still a long way away. Here's hoping a catcher, 3B or SP rises to the top. (3B to hedge bets, not because I'm down on Sano)

 

Believe it or not, despite this disappointing and awful season, there are some things that happened that make me excited.

 

*While a past defender of TRUTH, it was time for a change. Now we get it, along with what will be a close examination of the entire Twins structure. I'm nervous, but excited and cautiously optimistic.

 

*More and more young talent at least got their feet wet at the ML level, even if some performances were underwhelming to this point. Despite never using the "Rebuild" word, it's what's happening.

 

*There were some very positive performances amongst some OF, and more than a few SP and RP, particularly at AA and AAA.

 

Even a top college player for the Twins to select next June, we probably won't see any help for at least a season, possibly two. But adding said draftee to Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano and Polanco, others close like Garver, Palka, Walker and Gordon could be close. Besides Berrios...(don't lose hope)...there are 5 solid to excellent SP prospects that should at least finish next season at Rochester, if not make their ML debut.

 

Am I straining for positives? Maybe. I prefer to think "looking" is a better word.

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"When it comes down to it, the Twins won't have much to hang their hats on as the 2016 dust settles. The first overall pick is definitely an exciting and welcomed consolation prize, but it will be in the hiring of front office executives, and the retooling of the organization that the true forward progress is felt." >>>>>>> I truly hope your are correct. I hope that it works out. But mind these two cautionary points. 1. Many, myself definitely included, thought it was time to move on from Gardy. What could be worse. Well now we know. It's not even the fact they aren't winning, I have coached enough to know players win most games, not managers. It's the sloppy way the players play the game, the inconsistent handling of players based on what appears to be favoritism, and a seeming lack of any kind of an idea where he wants to play people. 2. We seem to be totally disregarding who owns this team. What the past has shown of the Pohlad evaluation process, and what level the bar is set for success? And those items are not encouraging. Remember this simple fact. These hires, and I mean both of them, will be made by and/or with Jim Pohlads input, and blessing. His view of a successful baseball franchise has, at least up till now, not reflected what most would hope and expect, unless you are an accountant. Let's use the Vikings move to Speilman and Zimmer as a reference point. I don't put the odds at 20% JP makes a hire that will positively impact the Twins to the extent that those two have impacted the Vikings. Ownership counts. Ziggi is a lot of things, but he wants to win, of that there is no dispute. I would doubt that you can find one person in MN who could justifiably quantitate that trait so far in the operation of the Twins by the Pohlad family!

Wilf will make money regardless if the team wins or loses. That does not change. Player procurement, development and costs of mistakes are far different than in baseball. Is is like comparing fruits to vegetables.  Illitich wants to win in the worst way. His team has not won and are not getting any closer but it would seem further.  Getting better in baseball is not an easy task. Just look at the White Sox.

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The Twins will still come in on the underside of two million in attendance, which is remarkable. But they have a tough sell ahead for next season.

 

A #1 pick. Whew! You have to take the best player available depending on your needs (pitching or hitting) and go from there. Be interesting to see how this year's crop of draftees comment on the possibility of being a Minnesota Twin.

 

We have had high draft picks in four of the last five drafts and where are they, that is the question. We even managed to grab a high one from another team and allowed him to move on.

 

Sarcastically, I can see someone in the front office complaining about losing and now "we have to pay top dollar for a draft pick!"

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Wilf will make money regardless if the team wins or loses. That does not change. Player procurement, development and costs of mistakes are far different than in baseball. Is is like comparing fruits to vegetables.  Illitich wants to win in the worst way. His team has not won and are not getting any closer but it would seem further.  Getting better in baseball is not an easy task. Just look at the White Sox.
My point on Wilf had nothing to do with money, it had more to do with moving to people who would win. Mediocrity, and whether the team made money was not a factor. Winning is! And Iilitch is another proof point, just spending money doesn't cut it. It helps fill in the holes, but it's player evaluation, in baseball consistent development in the minors, and roster construction. Of the aforementioned list, I cannot think of one item that this orginisation excels in, nor has for years. Using that time frame as a benchmark, this is our one and only chance to get this right. And I might add, one of our seemingly ongoing habits in Minnesota is to compare ourselves to failed orginisations, instead of striving to be compared to elite ones.
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My point on Wilf had nothing to do with money, it had more to do with moving to people who would win. Mediocrity, and whether the team made money was not a factor. Winning is! And Iilitch is another proof point, just spending money doesn't cut it. It helps fill in the holes, but it's player evaluation, in baseball consistent development in the minors, and roster construction. Of the aforementioned list, I cannot think of one item that this orginisation excels in, nor has for years. Using that time frame as a benchmark, this is our one and only chance to get this right. And I might add, one of our seemingly ongoing habits in Minnesota is to compare ourselves to failed orginisations, instead of striving to be compared to elite ones.

Yet you are the one comparing  Twins to Vikings. . I guess one conference final under this ownership group in 10 years is a winning tradition and an elite formula.

Elite formula for baseball  would probably be defined as consistently putting yourself to be in position to be lucky in the post season.  How do you get the right player at the right moment for the right price and move on?  How do you get the career year out of someone than move on?  It is not an easy answer because in the AL no teams have been consistently there near the top with a rotating team.

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I'm not sure there was a Harper/Strassburg type pick a year before they were taken either.  It's really too soon to hope for such a person. We will have a much better idea if one exists come next May.

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I'm not sure there was a Harper/Strassburg type pick a year before they were taken either.  It's really too soon to hope for such a person. We will have a much better idea if one exists come next May.

 

Harper and Strasburg were both very hot topics long before the draft. Especially Harper. 

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It's hard to say at this point. If TR will still in charge, I would say the 1/1 pick doesn't salvage the season. If we make strong hiring decisions at the PoBO and GM levels AND they in turn make the right calls in the scouting department AND we get a little bit lucky on the development and injury fronts, then I could see 1/1 salvaging this season.

 

Unfortunately it will take a couple of years to have a firm answer to this question. All I can say with certainty now is that I hope we're not asking the same question next September.

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