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Breaking Down The Twins 40 Man


Ted Schwerzler

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As the 2016 Major League Baseball season comes to an end, the final month of the season sees big league rosters expand. This season is different than last for Paul Molitor's club though. Instead of adding pieces for a stretch run, the Twins are looking for the losing to end and simply calling up a few guys who've already been with the big club. Outside of James Beresford's Major League debut, the September names weren't anything new.

 

Over the past few weeks, Minnesota has been forced to shuffle their 40 man roster a significant bit. With injuries, and poor performances at the highest level, Rob Antony has been tasked with adding some alternative options to the big league clubhouse. A season from now though, Minnesota will be looking to round out a 40 man with less filler and more upside.

 

Given that the Twins are in the process of hiring a new General Manager and Head of Baseball Operations, we're likely a ways off from 40 man decisions being made. That said, I think it's clear there's some room that can be cleared. Before the actual results are brought to our attention, I'll take a stab at the guys I'd look to DFA.

 

To lay the groundwork right now, understand that the Minnesota Twins 40 man roster is currently full. They also have Danny Santana, Glen Perkins, and Phil Hughes all on the 60 day disabled list not taking up an active spot. That all being said, here's the cuts I make:

 

Andrew Albers LHP

 

Albers owns an ERA north of 6.00 for the Twins this season. He's started two games, and the results haven't been pretty. The soft tossing lefty is about as low of a ceiling as it gets for a big league pitcher. His 8.4 K/9 is a career high, but Albers shouldn't be on a bad team, let alone one trying to turn things around.

 

Buddy Boshers RHP

 

Credit Terry Ryan for making another one of his nice non-roster finds. Bothers had been solid early on for the Twins but has really faded down the stretch. His 9.0+ K/9 is solid, but in just 27.0 innings of work, he owns an ERA north of 5.00. I'd actually be surprised to see the Twins move on from Boshers, but trust a new GM to understand that the system has better options in it.

 

Pat Dean LHP

 

Although he just debuted in 2016, Dean hasn't shown anything that suggests he's capable at the big league level. He's been markedly mediocre in Triple-A, and worse for the Twins. He's not a strikeout guy, and he shouldn't be starting at the highest level either. If you want to try him as a lefty out of the pen, I could maybe get behind it out of the gate.

 

Tommy Milone LHP

 

This is probably less of his doing than it is the state of the Twins. Milone is serviceable in the rotation, and is fully capable of pitching at the back of a big league rotation. He needs to be on a staff that has top heavy arms though, and right now, that's not the Twins. Minnesota will likely non-tender him, and his time here will come to an end.

 

Juan Centeno C

 

For virtually the whole season, Centeno has spent borrowed time with the Twins. Only up due to John Ryan Murphy's massive failure in his first year with Minnesota, Centeno has been largely unimpressive. He's mediocre at best with the bat, and has been nothing short of a warm body behind the plate. Had the situation played out differently, Mitch Garver probably could have been in this spot at some point during 2016.

 

Kurt Suzuki C

 

At least immediately following the season, Suzuki will be off of the Twins 40 man. He's set to be a free agent, and I'd hope the Twins aim a bit higher than resigning him. His switch to the Axe Bat has helped to stabilize his offensive production some, but Suzuki isn't going to push the envelope for Minnesota. If I'm the Twins, a more realistic upgrade at such a weak position is where I'd want to turn to.

 

James Beresford IF

 

Understandably a great story, Beresford earned his promotion with his 2015 season more than he did the 2016 year. He's a guy that can do everything, but nothing particularly well. Maybe Minnesota allows him a chance to compete for a super utility spot during spring training, but in reality, he looks much more the part of a guy that does really well at Triple-A.

 

Trevor Plouffe 3B

 

Included in this exercise simply because I believe it's what the Twins will do. I've written multiple times that I believe there's a way for Sano, Plouffe, Mauer, and Park all to coexist. Admittedly though, Plouffe's arbitration number will be out of line with the season he has had. Whether he's traded or not remains a mystery, but the writing could be on the wall for Trevor.

 

Danny Santana IF

 

Santana is currently not on the active 40 man, but I'm not sure I'd add him back either. Outside of the inflated rookie debut season, he hasn't hit well at all, and he simply doesn't get on base enough. The most notable thing Santana does for the Twins is play all over the field. Unfortunately, the caveat is that he doesn't play anywhere at even an average level. Out of options, I'd see if there's a market for him before DFA'ing the scrappy utility man.

 

Robbie Grossman LF

 

Immediately after signing him out of the Indians organization, Grossman looked to have found a new home with the Twins. Even still, he's done a great job at having a disciplined approach all year that's led to a very high OBP number. What he has also done is be the worst left fielder in recent Twins memory, and that's including comparisons to Josh Willingham and Delmon Young. For a leftover outfield type, you can't have a guy that can't play defense. That's Grossman, and he's out for me.

 

Logan Schafer OF

 

If there wasn't already room to complain about Schafer being called up by the Twins, it was compounded when Adam Brett Walker wasn't added following the Triple-A season. Schafer is a warm body in centerfield, but that's about it. Minnesota has other options, and even the jump from Double-A for someone like Zach Granite might be a worthwhile consideration.

 

There you have it, by my count, this scenario would leave Minnesota with 10 openings on the 40 man. Danny Santana isn't currently on it, and then two of the 10 vacancies would be needed for Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. Where the Twins go from there is anyone's guess.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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You could even add Tyler Duffey or Michael Tonkin or Byung-Ho Park or Eduardo Escobar or Hector Santiago or even Adam Walker to the list, not to mention one or two of the guys who topped out at Ft. Myers. Oh, and Alex Wimmers and Ryan O'Rourke aren't necessarily givens. Jeez...we are looking at half the roster as expandables! The question is when is the absolute best time to start non-tendering players. The day before rosters need to be set in November, or right after the World Series, or even now? Note that a lot of teams seems to be making additions to their 40-man rosters right now with some prospects as September callups and jettisoning some bodies.

 

I was doing some rough estimating and the Twins will need 6-8 spots to protect anyone that really needs protection, although I'm probably wrong on a few of the names. Hurlburt will have an opportunity to be a minor league free agent, There's no other organization names that will be missed if they depart in this fashion (maybe Van Steensel at the worst). I believe. Names like Garver, Baxendale, Granite, Gonsalves, Jorge, Palka, Steward, Jones and Wheeler all come to mind. I don't see other organizations grabbing Turner, Goodrum, Busenitz, Westphal, Slegers, Peterson, Ortiz, Michael, Harrison, Eades, Hicks or even Thorpe.

 

But this is where it all gets difficult. You need to move out guys if you aren't seeing their potential to impact the major league level at some point, as this year's Twins have shown you can always fill in holes from the scrap heap if need be, with an occasional gem.

 

But five guys on the current 40-man who weren't a Twins prospect and basically picked up during the year and off-season on the waiver wire seem to be waaaay too much, unless, of course, you do need bodies to jettison before you do a real 40-man again.

 

Plus look at the names above. 3/4 of them would probably happily resign with the Twins as minor league depth (although it does cost the Twins more money to pay minor league free agents with experience than prospects still on a learning curve).

 

And you also need a couple of stray bodies in case you sign a free agent, something about 40-man adds in November have to stay put thru spring training.

 

If they do keep Plouffe and Santiago, then there really won't be much of a payroll difference between the Twins at the beginning of 2016 and the beginning of the 2017 season.

 

But who knows what a new president of baseball operations and his general manager and staff will do once that time comes. But the off-season has basically begun and one the World Series is done, it does move pretty darn fast.

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Nice list and fairly close to what I hope happens.  Grossman, Centeno, and Santana are the only ones who I might have to spring training next year. 

To get to the correct numbers, I could well add Tonkin and Wimmers to the list(Wimmers is close).  That is before you make some trades.  Would also not mind non tendering Gibson as he does not seem to be progressing.

My biggest worry is that the new regime may not be in place early enough to make these decisions, so Anthony and company may make them without knowledge of what the new staff will want. 

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Generally agree with everything stated. I'd like to keep Boshers around, if possible, but don't think I'd risk a 40 man spot on him. Too many guys to add this year.

 

The one guy I'd quibble about is Centennial. The Twins need help at catcher. While Centennial is nothing special by any means, he's generally OK behind the plate, at it, and hits LHRP. I'd really like to keep him for ST 2017. But you also have to protect Murphy, Garver and Turner, so I get it. May not have room. But I still may quibble a bit on him.

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I think that upward mobility in the minor league is different for each prospect.  Everyone wants to see how you fair at each level but sometimes people perform better against top competition than they do against lower competition.  Miguel Sano hit better in the MLB last year and this year than he did in AA, despite the strikeouts.  

 

ABW has a 30% career strikeout rate yet only a 23% career strikeout rate against MLB Top 20 pitching in his career.  Maybe it's the Albers and Dean type pitchers that give him the most trouble.  How many will he see at the highest level.  Those are the little things that trouble me with my evaluation of prospects.  What are the little intangibles most people don't look at.  Are those littler things meaningful when evaluating prospects?  Why the large strikeout rate difference?  Moving a guy too fast is said to mess up a prospects spirits, and yet maybe moving a guy to slow can do the same thing.  Either way, when do you decide to see what an MLB at bat looks like?

 

We don't count spring training ABs where he is 5 for 17 (.294) with 2 HRs and 2 Doubles and a .900+ OPS.  We don't count the 2 HRs he's hit off of Trevor May and Mike Pelfrey in off field games.  When do we see if those ABs are flukes?  We had 20+ games to see something and balked.  23% against Top 20 prospects.  Most to all (pitchers) have seen some time in the MLB over the last 2 years as well.   Walker should be on the Twins let go list too.  They have no intentions of playing him.  IMO

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What's amazing is you mention 11 players in the article, and I wouldn't lose any sleep if all of them are gone for the 2017 season. Rosterman also mentions a few, and out of his list, I would add Tonkin, Santiago, along with Rosario and Landa as borderline drops. 

Potentially 15 people that could be removed from the 40 man without much of a backlash from the fan base. I would look forward to that much turnover after this disaster of a season. 

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The crux of this exercise is getting the new front office in place as quickly as possible. Who will make these decisions?  If done wrong we are another year from clearing the congestion and moving forward.  Come on Pohlad - get the front office in place.

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