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How Molitor Fills Out The Rotation


Ted Schwerzler

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As Christmas is right around the corner, we're still months away from meaningful baseball being played at Target Field. In fact, for the next few months, the field is going to be covered with snow. At this point, projecting a 25 man roster is a losing proposition. For the Twins though, selecting the starting rotation is probably much more feasible.

 

Sure, there's little doubt that the Twins have some of the most starting pitching depth that they've had in years. With capable arms about eight or nine pitchers deep, the back end of the Minnesota starting five should have plenty of suitors. The question is, how should Paul Molitor set things up come Opening Day?

 

The first few names in the rotation are easy. Minnesota will almost undoubtedly give "Ace" duties to Ervin Santana. His $55 million contract made him the richest pitcher on the club, and despite the early season suspension, he pitched like one of the best. Although there was some initial growing pains in returning from his suspension, Santana was lights out the rest of the way. From August 30 through the end of the year (seven starts), Santana owned a 1.62 ERA while striking out 8.5 batters per nine. The Twins were 5-2 across those games and Santana tallied a 5-1 record.

 

Following the $55 million man is the guy who inked a new deal the season before. Phil Hughes regressed in 2015, and it was in large part due to the longball. After owning a 3.52 ERA and 2.65 FIP in his first year with the Twins, Hughes totaled a 4.40 ERA in 2016 that was backed by a 4.70 FIP. He still walked no one (0.9 BB/9) but his strikeouts dipped (5.4 K/9 in 2015 after 8.0 K/9 in 2014) and he gave up an AL worst 29 homers. After dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness a year ago, Hughes is a good bet to rebound. Expecting something a bit below his 2014 numbers is within the realm of possibility.

 

Rounding out the guaranteed three is the first of the home grown prospects in this rotation. Kyle Gibson looked the part of the best Twins starting pitcher for stretches of 2015, and another leap forward in the year ahead should be expected. Posting career bests in innings pitched (194.2), ERA (3.84), strikeouts (145), and WHIP (1.289) Gibson continued to grow. His 6.7 K/9 was over a full strikeout worth of improvement, and he was just one of two pitchers (Hughes the other) to win double digit games. Gibson found himself ranking near the top of the AL in ERA for much of the season, and 2016 should see him take another step forward. As a number three, Molitor should feel good about Gibson taking the next step.

 

Things are somewhat up in the air for the final two spots, but it's Tommy Milone who should be considered the most likely option. Milone was tendered a new contract this offseason by the Twins, and the Sam Fuld trade continues to pay off for Minnesota. Across 23 starts in 2015, Milone owned a 3.92 ERA striking out 6.4 per nine while walking just 2.5 per nine. Milone's numbers across the board registered as his best since 2012 as a 25 year-old with the Washington Nationals. As a back end of the rotation option, Milone provides stability and should have the Twins in position to win plenty of games. If he can continue the lights out dominance he displayed at Triple-A Rochester (0.70 ERA across five starts) in a short stint last year, his major league numbers should continue to trend down.

 

Most interestingly among the Twins 2016 rotation is the 5th and final starter spot. There's a handful of suitors to be considered including Trevor May, Ricky Nolasco, Taylor Rogers, and Jose Berrios. The most sensible option though is not among those names. Instead, the final rotation spot goes to 2015 rookie, Tyler Duffey.

 

It was Duffey who started as the Opening Day pitcher for Double-A Chattanooga in 2015. He turned in strong numbers there, as well as Triple-A Rochester prior to making his big league debut. For Minnesota, Duffey made 10 starts owning a sparkling 3.10 ERA. His 3.24 FIP was impressive and he struck out batters at an 8.2 K/9 clip. Going 5-1 in his first 10 big league starts, Duffey should be given the first crack at replicating his stretch run performance for the Twins.

 

Looking back at the other possibilities to round out the rotation, it's as much that Duffey deserves the role as it is the other options can be beneficial elsewhere. May showed he has the ability to be an asset in relief and could turn into an elite one for a bullpen desperately needing quality arms. Nolasco has been hard to count on, and could be more beneficial in a lesser role. For Rogers, the pen has seemed like a potential destination for a while. As a lefty, he should be a significant upgrade in a long relief role over the likes of a Brian Duensing type.

 

The biggest name of that final group is no doubt Jose Berrios. At this point, I think it's safe to say the Twins need to give him at least 20 big league starts in 2016, just not from the get go. Service reasons aside, pushing out promising youth in Duffey would be counter productive. If nothing else, Berrios gets his break at the first sign of injury or Milone's ineffectiveness. The goal and hope would be that one he debuts, he sticks for good and shows the same type of numbers he's displayed throughout the farm system.

 

There you have it, as of December (and barring injury or a blockbuster trade), the Twins are best positioned to go with a Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Milone, Duffey rotation for 2015. After winning 80+ games and starting in a worse place a year ago, that five should be a solid step in the right direction for a team looking to turn the corner for good.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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Smart, well thought out, and difficult to disagree with.

 

I might argue that a fully healthy Hughes is slotted ahead of Santana, but really, it's not going to matter much. Gibson obviously holds the 3 spot. And I absolutely believe that Duffey is in the rotation as well. 

 

Assuming Berrios begins in the minors, and he probably will due to depth to sort out and not service time, the 5th starter SHOULD BE May. He's not only young and talented and part of the future, he was pitching very well last season before his move to the pen. But rotation depth, and his success in the bullpen last season, almost certainly marks him for that role in 2016. (With hopes he may be able to return to the rotation in 2017)

 

So you can start May, then move him to the bullpen when Berrios is ready. Or, you have Milone and Nolasco to fight for the final spot....until Berrios is ready. Right in line with your thinking. I would hope they wouldn't start Nolasco simply to help increase trade value. 

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Thanks for the comments Doc!

 

As you mention, Hughes/Santana is probably negligible. With Santana being without a suspension this season (or so we hope), I'd assume he gets the "Ace" role he was destined for when signed and pitched like down the stretch.

 

As I mentioned in the piece, May's exclusion from the rotation is less about his own merits than it is how he best helps the team. As a reliever, May could be elite in the pen, and no doubt is an area that Minnesota is worse. While it's unfortunate he wouldn't start, it's hard to argue against him helping the club in other ways.

 

In regards to Nolasco, I'm not sure his value matters much at this point. He's probably going to decrease in value as a reliever, regardless of if he pitches well or not simply because he isn't starting. The hope would be that he gives you something through the rest of his deal.

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Your point is granted in regard to Nolasco. And I don't dislike Nolasco. Unfortunately, things just didn't work out. And not only do you have Milone as an option instead of him, but Berrios should be ready at some point, if not soon. So my one concern is comments and reports about not trying to move Nolasco for fear of selling short. To me, that is misguided. Both parties need a change. And I would really hate to think the Twins would consider not starting Milone, or Berrios simply to give Nolasco a shot at improving trade value.

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I think more than anything, that quote LaVelle provided was teamspeak for we aren't moving Nolasco because he has no value. It's not a matter of selling low, but that there's nothing to sell. It's unfortunate how his time here will end, but it is what it is.

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I think unless Nolasco is a complete washout in ST, he will get far more innings than we expect. The Twins, and likely other teams, use the cost of the player in allocating playing time. And he cost plenty. I would also believe the FO would like to salvage just a little of the pride lost in this contract. As an aside, I still have a problem with the use of the term "depth" in referring to the pitching situation in MN. While I understand that depth can be synonymous with quantity, in this case I hope it's not being used to infer quality.

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I think unless Nolasco is a complete washout in ST, he will get far more innings than we expect. The Twins, and likely other teams, use the cost of the player in allocating playing time. And he cost plenty. I would also believe the FO would like to salvage just a little of the pride lost in this contract. As an aside, I still have a problem with the use of the term "depth" in referring to the pitching situation in MN. While I understand that depth can be synonymous with quantity, in this case I hope it's not being used to infer quality.

 

I'd agree with you that all teams look at assets in regards to acquisition costs, some teams do it to a fault however. Giving Nolasco significant run without him giving reason for them to do so would fall into that category.

 

As far as questioning depth, I'd assume each piece that uses the term is self explanatory in terms of the way it is defined. Above, depth is a categorization of quantity rather than quality (as I'd noted often). Being that as it is, the reasoning above becomes even more cemented in my mind. Your goal is to configure both the rotation and pen with the utmost quality using you quantity. I believe starting Duffey and relieving May accomplishes that.

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Figuring out what to do with Nolasco is going to be interesting and a challenge. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't shown what he can do, but even then if you look at his career he has rarely been an average or above average pitcher. The Twins signed after he had a good year with the hope that the promise that he showed when he was 25 or so and from that year would lead to bigger and better things. It hasn't. I'd actually put him in the bullpen and see what you can get out of him. I'd also put May in the bullpen and have Milone and Duffey start. However, I think that Milone will struggle for a few starts and if the Twins are playing well and Berrios is throwing well then he takes Milone's spot. Milone's room for error seems small and when he is a little hurt or off it shows quickly. 

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We know that one pitcher will get hurt, most likely more, but who is not easy to guess.  Berrios needs to be next and if no one gets hurt or Duffey regresses Berrios has to be next.  I am still bitter about last years season ending and the possibility that Berrios like Duffey might have made the difference, but moving on - if there is no  injury and Berrios pitches like expected and the dumb service time rule is past - Milone to long relief becomes the best option.  

 

May, Duffey and Berrios in the rotation is my wish, but even a happy new year is not going to make that come true in 2016.

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We know that one pitcher will get hurt, most likely more, but who is not easy to guess.  Berrios needs to be next and if no one gets hurt or Duffey regresses Berrios has to be next.  I am still bitter about last years season ending and the possibility that Berrios like Duffey might have made the difference, but moving on - if there is no  injury and Berrios pitches like expected and the dumb service time rule is past - Milone to long relief becomes the best option.  

 

May, Duffey and Berrios in the rotation is my wish, but even a happy new year is not going to make that come true in 2016.

Injuries no doubt are going to happen, but forecasting them isn't part of the exercise.

 

As good as May in the rotation is, he's more beneficial to the Twins in relief due to roster construction. As far as Milone in relief, he probably makes the least amount of sense there. He's a soft tossing lefty that's stuff wouldn't play up in the pen.

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I truly hate seeing May go the the pen, but at the same time, given the current roster, it's likely the thing to do. Time will tell. It helps clear the jam in the beginning of the year. Of course so would have moving Pefrey there last year. I don't think Milone fits the pen, except for mop up. His stuff doesn't play well there. At the same time, he, more than anyone on the staff pitches at the whim of an umpire. He needs a big outside corner, and when it doesn't exist, he doesn't last long.

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