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Weeding Through Molitor's Messages


Ted Schwerzler

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Between blogs (hopefully this is your first stop), traditional newspaper outlets, and advanced media such as radio and television, the Twins are well covered in the Twin Cities. Making a regularly scheduled appearance on ESPN Radio with Patrick Reusse, Paul Molitor provided some interesting tidbits yesterday. Over the course of his 45 minute candid appearance, there were some Twins notes that definitely are worth addressing.

 

Paul Molitor is heading into his first offseason having been the acting manager the season before. With a full year of evaluation, Molitor now has the task of positioning the active roster for sustained competitiveness in the years to come. Judging by his interview, he's already given the process some serious thought.

 

Early on when talking to Reusse, Molitor addressed the bullpen, and suggested Neal Cotts could be brought back. As things stand currently, Cotts (acquired from the Brewers) is headed to free agency. There's been some buzz that the Twins would look into bringing him back needing a left-handed arm in relief. Cotts pitched on a one-year, $3 million deal in 2015, and no doubt would be looking for more. He owned a 3.95 ERA across 13.2 IP for the Twins, but had a 5.99 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and a 1.390 WHIP. Cotts struck out just 5.9 per nine and walked 3.3 per nine (walks mirroring his career numbers). If you're looking to fix the pen, Cotts isn't where I'd start.

 

Following the pen discussion, Molitor then turned his attention toward some of the youth in the Twins organization. First noting pitcher Jose Berrios, Molitor had good things to say of his performance in 2015. With a 2.87 ERA and 9.5 K/9 in 2015, it's hard not to be excited about the production. The Twins skipper did touch on concerns of workload (Berrios pitched 166.1 innings in 2015, previous high was 139.2), despite noting his work ethic and conditioning.

 

There was plenty of angst towards the Twins in not promoting Berrios down the stretch. Molitor suggested that he was in favor of keeping the Puerto Rican hurler on the farm, and that service time and contracts unfortunately come into play. He'll be pushing for time out of Spring Training, but it doesn't sound like Molitor plans on opening that door too easily.

 

From the mound to the outfield, Molitor then discussed Byron Buxton's performance down the stretch. Despite not getting into too much action, Molitor noted the staff "saw lots of signs of improvement," also noting his "athleticism is off the charts." It doesn't appear that the organization is convinced Buxton will open 2016 with the big league club however. Buxton shouldn't have a prolonged stay in Triple-A, but beginning the season there seems like the route that may be taken.

 

Staying in the outfield, Torii Hunter then became a talking point. Molitor praised his season (at least the 20 HR 80 RBI portion of it), and said there's "interest on our side," in regards to bringing him back. It doesn't sound like Torii has made up his mind as to what he'd like to do. Despite Reusse suggesting most don't understand defensive metrics outside of the organization, it's the defensive metrics that should have Twins fans wanting Hunter out the door. He posted an ugly -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) and a poor 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating) in 2015. His roster spot is better used on someone more than just a figurehead.

 

Interestingly enough, and despite the youth out in the outfield, Molitor seems to believe the Twins outfield depth isn't where he wants it. Noting that Hicks is off to a good start but needs to continue that path, and having some other unproven youth, he took the conversation to an unexpected place. Suggesting it's "not out of the realm of possibility" to play Miguel Sano in the outfield, it doesn't seem the Twins are concerned about getting him out of being solely a DH.

 

Lastly addressing the infield, Molitor quickly suggested that Eduardo Escobar is their shortstop. He earned the role in 2015, and should be allowed to run with it for the immediate future. His fWAR ranks 12th among 72 shortstops with 100 or more plate appearances since 2014 (credit @Brandon_Warne).

 

With Escobar locking down short, Molitor offered that "We're (Twins) going to run into issues with (Danny) Santana, out of options and all." The problem with this line of thinking is that there really is no problem at all. Both Escobar and Eduardo Nunez filled super utility roles for the Twins in the past. Santana seems like the ideal candidate to do so at least in 2016, and that decision becomes even more clear when not wasting roster spots on players like Hunter.

 

As a whole, the conversation was extremely candid, and often times Molitor lets slip some very good tidbits of information. The Twins have begun to trim their 40 man roster already, and more decisions loom this offseason. Minnesota needs to take another step forward in 2016, and seeing how that happens will be interesting.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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Most of this thinking does not seem as much Molitors, as the "company line". A post on TD referenced Dave St. Peter telling season ticket holders much of the same things. An interview with Ryan would likely sound like a replay of talking points. Is it just me, or does this sound like Gardy never left?

Keep Cotts?

Agonize over whether Torii returns?

Worry about a roster spot for Nunez?

Don't trust Hicks?

Sano to the OF, having to the best of my knowledge never playing an inning there?

The only one I can agree with is Berrios and Buxton, and that only if someone just plain says that it's service time. Which I imagine they can't, even though it is.

So you keep Cotts, you have Sano stumble around the OF, but ditch Arcia because he couldn't field, you bring up Berrios and Buxton in late June, and waste a month or two on ML acclimation, and then at the end of the year, bemoan how very close you were to that one and down WC game. Now that truly is the "Twins Way".

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I would say that what Molitor says regarding players is much, much more important for us to read than what St. Peter says. Molitor and Ryan and the front office are involved in these discussions. St. Peter likely gets briefed or maybe a few notes. But he'll have 0 input on player decisions. 

 

St. Peter is good for information on stuff off the field. I don't mean that as a slight to him or anything, but as President, he's got a ton to worry about and has to (and should) leave all baseball decisions to the baseball people. 

 

Also, realize that at the org meetings, they talk about everything. Every possible scenario. There's a lot of information.

 

And also remember, what Molitor or anyone says publicly is only part of the story... you have to read beyond the quotes.

 

Would Molitor want Torii Hunter back? Absolutely, no question about that. But that'll be on Hunter (to want to) and Ryan to be ok with the details.

 

Could Buxton use more AAA time? I think that's quite reasonable.

 

The Berrios thing... Molitor acknowledged that there was likely some business side to him not coming up. 1.) I don't think that was bout arbitration or free agency. 2.) I do think it was more about the 40 man roster. The Twins have proven over and over that, although they should think about arbitration and especially free agency timelines, they haven't. If they think someone is ready opening day, they'll go with it. So again, have to look past the quotes, to the history and to some common sense.

 

Cotts - Sure, they'll probably evaluate a lot of lefty relievers who are free agents. They may even bring in a couple to compete... I'd be surprised if Cotts is back.

 

Sano to the OF - I'll believe that when I see that. 

 

Need OF depth - they know players will read this stuff... can't just tell them that things will be handed to them. Hicks had a good 6 weeks. Rosario doesn't walk. Arcia's situation. If it was me, I'd go Rosario, Buxton, Hicks in the OF, but there isn't anything certain about any of them. 

 

Anyway, just some of my thoughts. I was glad to hear that SS is Escobar's job at this point.

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Hunter being back is no doubt on Hunter, I remain of the opinion that under no circumstance should the Twins want that. At least as a player (and Hunter doesn't want to coach). It's going to though (likely) and that's unfortunate.

 

Suggesting Hicks having a good six week is selling the season short (I think), but it's not an egregious assesment. That's the outfield configuration of most logic, but of course there's growing pains to be had there.

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Nothing too surprising in all of this.

 

Once again, I think Buxton builds on this past season and shouldn't be counted out of his spot with the Twins right out of camp so soon.

 

Sano to the OF makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. It's totally counter productive and counter intuitive to his entire baseball career. Arcia would probably be a better option! And no pun intended, but he's out of options, and needs a spot, even as a role player to begin the season.

 

Cotts? Meh. It could be a good signing. But I think there are a couple of better options out there.

 

Santana really isn't much of an issue either. The Twins will keep 2 catcher, 4 or 5 OF's, 3 middle INF's, 2 or 3 corner INF's. In most any way you configure the 13 man player roster, there is room for a 13th player who could fill almost any role. In this case, Santana as an INF/OF utility type.

 

I don't know...I didn't listen to the interview so I may be missing something...but I'd like to hear a little more imagination and a little more aggressiveness in the Twins thinking. I'm not say go hog wild and blow up the roster with major moves, but, it's not the time to just limit yourself either.

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I agree St. Peter is not the go to guy for roster decisions. It was the eeery similarity to Molitors views that made me mention it. And since they were so in tune, I used the term "company line". And if reading between the lines is required, this is what I read.

 

Only Hunter can save the Twins from Hunter.

Our starting pitching will not include Berrios, i.e., it will remain static due to long term contracts.

Plouffe ain't going nowhere.

Our first decision on the pen affirms our long term belief in low SO rates.

If Sano is the DH, Arcia is gone.

If Arcia is the DH, and Buxton is wowing the norther NY fans, Hunter or Sano will roam RF. (At least Sano can still run)

 

That's just a few of the lines, but the last one is: We still think we can get people to buy tickets by working feverishly to acquire that last WC spot. To some this may sound sarcastic? Sadly it was not meant that way!

 

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Would this have sounded better?

 

"Sano definitely needs to play 3B, so we have to trade Plouffe"

"Our starting outfield next year is already set. Rosario/Buxton/Hicks, no matter what!"

"I'm going to fight for Berrios in the 2016 opening rotation"

"We don't want Hunter, even if he's willing to be the 5th OF"

 

Wouldn't make a lot of sense. Reading between the lines says you don't show your hand before anyone has anted up.

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Keeping Plouffe and re-signing Hunter means no meaningful role for Arcia and a too-easy demotion of Hicks or Rosario if/when Buxton is deemed ready and one of the two slump or struggle. I suspect that Santana's utility role is already written in, perhaps in ink. If the Twins limit their number of pitchers and outfielders, there is a place for Eduardo Nuñez, for what that is worth.

 

On the pitching front, I liked the Cotts move and while he had some bad outings, they were mostly in one-sided games IIRC. Having one veteran middle innings guy is probably a good thing. The problem was that the Twins carried three or four all season in 2015. I pretty much agree with Molitor's view on Berrios. I don't expect him to break camp with the Twins, but would be surprised if he isn't in the majors to stay well before the All-Star break.

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Two thoughts on the outfield: 

 

1) Possibly like Molitor, I'm not sold on Hicks yet. Fairly inconsistent yet and until I see that consistency I'm not a huge fan. In all reality, I say trade him if you can get something really good for him.

 

2) His comments on Sano playing the outfield are consistent with what I would say if I wanted to move Plouffe and put Sano at 3B. You have to make it appear as though you are not interested in moving Plouffe so teams have to make better offers for him. 

 

 

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I would say that what Molitor says regarding players is much, much more important for us to read than what St. Peter says. Molitor and Ryan and the front office are involved in these discussions. St. Peter likely gets briefed or maybe a few notes. But he'll have 0 input on player decisions. 

 

St. Peter is good for information on stuff off the field. I don't mean that as a slight to him or anything, but as President, he's got a ton to worry about and has to (and should) leave all baseball decisions to the baseball people. 

 

Also, realize that at the org meetings, they talk about everything. Every possible scenario. There's a lot of information.

 

And also remember, what Molitor or anyone says publicly is only part of the story... you have to read beyond the quotes.

 

Would Molitor want Torii Hunter back? Absolutely, no question about that. But that'll be on Hunter (to want to) and Ryan to be ok with the details.

 

Could Buxton use more AAA time? I think that's quite reasonable.

 

The Berrios thing... Molitor acknowledged that there was likely some business side to him not coming up. 1.) I don't think that was bout arbitration or free agency. 2.) I do think it was more about the 40 man roster. The Twins have proven over and over that, although they should think about arbitration and especially free agency timelines, they haven't. If they think someone is ready opening day, they'll go with it. So again, have to look past the quotes, to the history and to some common sense.

 

Cotts - Sure, they'll probably evaluate a lot of lefty relievers who are free agents. They may even bring in a couple to compete... I'd be surprised if Cotts is back.

 

Sano to the OF - I'll believe that when I see that. 

 

Need OF depth - they know players will read this stuff... can't just tell them that things will be handed to them. Hicks had a good 6 weeks. Rosario doesn't walk. Arcia's situation. If it was me, I'd go Rosario, Buxton, Hicks in the OF, but there isn't anything certain about any of them. 

 

Anyway, just some of my thoughts. I was glad to hear that SS is Escobar's job at this point.

Great analysis. Like always. Thanks Seth.

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Buxton made progress:  yes. However: Molitor noted the staff "saw lots of signs of improvement," isn't a ringing endorsement.  Buxton's PA's were atrocious.  I'm more than a little stunned that no one has taught him  how to bunt.  Unless there are injuries, I doubt Buxton will appear with the Twins this year.

 

The whole  "Rosaro at second base" experiment was a failure. And that answer was from an embarrassed Paul Molitor.

 

Sano in the OF:  that's just keeping options open.  And it's not like the Twins have MLB OF talent ready.

 

I didn't hear the comments, but I don't believe "Molitor quickly suggested that Eduardo Escobar is their shortstop."  I believe that was statement of fact.

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