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Terry's Trades A Bright Spot For Big Offseason

Ted Schwerzler

Entry posted by Ted Schwerzler ·

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The Minnesota Twins weren't supposed to be much of anything this season. Paul Molitor was expected to inherit a team finishing closer to 90 losses than 90 wins. September would be another month highlighted by call-ups and talks of the future. Then the season happened, and none of that took place. Looking at the offseason, it's Terry Ryan's recent decisions that provide the biggest bright spot for what will be an extremely important 2016.

 

In 2014, the Minnesota Twins were taking on water and going nowhere fast. A fourth straight 90 loss season had very few highlights, but one of the greatest was a trade that got very little respect. Twins GM Terry Ryan grabbed Sam Fuld off of the Oakland Athletics scrap heap. Entering the season with little outfield depth, Fuld was a need for Minnesota. Then as the roster shifted later in the season, Fuld became an even bigger asset.

 

With the Athletics poised for a postseason run, Oakland wanted its speedster and defensive asset back in the fold. In return, they sent major league caliber starting pitcher Tommy Milone to the Twins. Milone owns a 4.08 ERA across 21 starts for the Twins in 2015. At times, he's looked like their best starter. His 6.3 K/9 is amongst the best of his career, and being under team control until 2019 makes him a valuable depth piece. For virtually nothing, Ryan had worked a great deal for his club.

 

Then, with the Twins in position to make a playoff run this season, Ryan did it again. This time, Minnesota would be on the market for relief pitching. A bad bullpen needed help down the stretch, but shying away from sacrificing the future needed to remain the goal.

 

Ryan plucked Chih-Wei Hu from High-A Fort Myers and sent him to Tampa Bay for Kevin Jepsen. Hu was having a great season (2.38 ERA across 16 starts in the organization), but he was never regarded as a top prospect. As little more than a lottery ticket, and with pitching depth abundant for the Twins, Ryan cashed in for a strong major league asset.

 

Jepsen joined the Twins with a 2.81 ERA in 46 games for the Rays. Since getting to Minnesota, his 1.96 ERA, 2.88 FIP, and 7.8 K/9 marks have all been even better than what he left. He's also filled in as closer (7 saves) for an injured Glen Perkins. On top of that, Ryan once again got a controllable asset in that Jepsen doesn't hit free agency until 2017.

 

Two seasons, two great trades. Now what's next?

 

As Minnesota embarks on the offseason and begins to prepare for the 2016 season, there should be plenty of roster shuffling. In looking at the landscape of the organization, I was able to come up with just 14 players who should be considered roster locks. That group would include: Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Glen Perkins, Ervin Santana, Kurt Suzuki, Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Miguel Sano, Eduardo Escobar, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario. That gives us a starting point.

 

Based on the above grouping, the Twins should have three of their five starters accounted for (Gibson/Hughes/Santana), two relievers (Jepsen/Perkins), second basemen (Dozier), first basemen (Mauer), and third basemen (Plouffe). What that means, is that there's plenty of roster uncertainty left. In a season the Twins should begin to start a chain of consecutive playoff seasons, it will be on Ryan to improve and remove that uncertainty.

 

Thankfully, the Twins have some expendable assets down on the farm. There's maybe not room for Jorge Polanco, Oswaldo Arcia could be on the outs; what happens to Vargas or Santana? How does Max Kepler fit, and are all of the promising relief arms going to make their debuts with the Twins? Each of those questions need answers, but in packaging some of the questions as assets, Ryan could boost the Twins from outside.

 

It's fun knowing that the Twins organization has one of the best farm systems in the league, and it's tough feeling an excitement to seeing those players realize their potential. The fact of the matter though is that not all will, at least here. Minnesota should find themselves relatively active in the trade market over the winter, Ryan absolutely has the pieces to move. Pushing the floor higher by executing more Jepsen type trades (proven/quality major league talent) should be part of the blueprint.

 

It's far too early to speculate who Ryan and the Twins may target, or who they may deal. What isn't too early to tell however, is that when looking at recent trade history, Terry Ryan absolutely knows what he's doing.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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nytwinsfan

The obvious answer of what Ryan should target in a trade is: (1) a catcher that can split time with Suzuki next year and continue for years into the future, and with less urgency, (2) another strong reliever. That's basically it. Ideally, the catcher would either be (i) a prospect who is almost ready, (ii) a youngish catcher with some upside and only one or two years of service time and thus four or five years left before FA, or (iii) a solid late 20s or early 30s catcher who is an upgrade on Suzuki, but with a reasonable contract ($4 - $9 million per year) left for 2-4 years. Obviously (ii) would be the most expensive in terms of trade value, and would probably take at least Plouffe or one of our young outfielders, possibly plus another prospect.  I would prefer to give up Plouffe over giving up one of the young outfielders, all else being equal, but that might not be the trade that is available.

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TNTwinsFan

Sign Wieters (SP?) in the offseason for 3-4 years. As far as the Bullpen goes; I think i remember seeing someone post that our Bullpen is and will be one of themost expensive in MLB. That needs to change. Perkins, Jepsen, May for sure. I bet Milone figures to be in the rotation or the long relief guy. Rotation of Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Nolasco/Berrios sounds about right. I can't remember the name of the lefty starter in AAA who doninates Lefties but I wonder if he and/or O'Rourke could be our other lefties along with Perkins. Guys like Pressley help round out the rest of the pen. Then there is also Darnell, Dean, etc. who help provide some depth at SP. I also suspect Nolasco is the first one on the trading block next year (regardless of what we can get for him). That move is an addition by subtraction type move.

 

Outfield will be a 4 person mix of Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, Arcia, and Kepler.

 

Infield will be Plouffe, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, Sano (DH), Vargas (Bench), Santana (Bench)

 

Catchers Weiters, Suzuki

 

Rotation: Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey (will win 14+ games if he has 32 starts), Nolasco/Berrios

 

Pen: Perkins, Jepsen, May, O'Rourke, Lefty from AAA, Pressley, Milone

 

92-94 wins Book it!

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Ted Schwerzler

 

Sign Wieters (SP?) in the offseason for 3-4 years. As far as the Bullpen goes; I think i remember seeing someone post that our Bullpen is and will be one of themost expensive in MLB. That needs to change. Perkins, Jepsen, May for sure. I bet Milone figures to be in the rotation or the long relief guy. Rotation of Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Nolasco/Berrios sounds about right. I can't remember the name of the lefty starter in AAA who doninates Lefties but I wonder if he and/or O'Rourke could be our other lefties along with Perkins. Guys like Pressley help round out the rest of the pen. Then there is also Darnell, Dean, etc. who help provide some depth at SP. I also suspect Nolasco is the first one on the trading block next year (regardless of what we can get for him). That move is an addition by subtraction type move. Outfield will be a 4 person mix of Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, Arcia, and Kepler. Infield will be Plouffe, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, Sano (DH), Vargas (Bench), Santana (Bench) Catchers Weiters, Suzuki Rotation: Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey (will win 14+ games if he has 32 starts), Nolasco/Berrios Pen: Perkins, Jepsen, May, O'Rourke, Lefty from AAA, Pressley, Milone 92-94 wins Book it!

 

Holy block of text lol! I believe you may be thinking of Darnell. Also, I'd expect Alex Meyer in the bullpen at some point.

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Ted Schwerzler

 

And that AAA Lefty SP's name is Taylor Rogers...dominate against Lefties.

 

I was thinking you were talking about a guy already in the pen. Yes, Rogers will be a good big league reliever I think.

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DocBauer

 

I had put spaces in...don't think they took...it looks pretty ugly.

 

Happens to me a lot, at least when I use my I-PAD, which is often.

 

I find if I post, and then click the "edit" option, and then save the post again, it seems to fix everything.

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DocBauer

Also, agree with a lot of TNT's points. I am of the belief, as of now, that Berrios and Kepler will be integral parts of the 2016 roster and onward, but that both will begin the season in AAA. And not just for a delay in their start clock, but rather, overall depth of talent may force the Twins to open one way in regard to their roster, and then tweak as they go over the first 30-60 days. Not uncommon, of course.

 

OF: Rosario, Buxton, Hicks and Kepler are your OF. Somewhere on the club, probably here, I'd like to see a solid, veteran LH bat for PH and occasional DH or in the field play. (Mauer would be perfect for that role..but..well..you know) Could the team keep 5 OF's? Yes, due to the veteran bench bat role. A Robinson or Danny Ortiz could fit in here initially if Kepler begins the year with Rochester. 

 

This might be where we find Arcia, out of options, not yet traded, and with the parent club as a role player to begin the year.

 

IN: Plouffe, Sano and Mauer share 3B/1B/DH duties on a rotational basis. Once Kepler is up, we have 7  rotating in to 6 spots. Not hard to do. 

 

Escobar is at SS, Dozier is 2B, Nunez..probably...is primary utility. There is room for a second INF if the team only carries 4 total OF. Santana? Polanco? Beresford?

 

I see Vargas, for now, in AAA playing every day at first, unless Plouffe is moved this offseason. Then there becomes a more immediate shot for him. (though a FA DH suddenly becomes a possibility)

 

C: Suzuki and unknown. FA or trade...something happens here.

 

SP: Hughes, Santana, Gibson, 2 of May, Duffey and Berrios. Again, Berrios could be in Rochester initially.

 

RP: (7) Perkins, Jepsen, Duffey or May, Milone takes up 4 spots. The team should and I say will sign a FA RHRP. Ditto from the LH side unless they keep Cotts. That leaves 1 spot left to audtion Tonkin, Pressly and the such.

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dxpavelka

I'm going bold and calling for a move of Kepler to catcher.  Not many at bats likely to be available between OF & 1B in the coming years.  Send him to the AFL to convert and since he's probably going to need to start next year in the minors he might as well be learning to play a position of need while doing so.  Should be an upgrade over Hermanson/Fryer by June.  Could split time with Suzuki after than and hopefully hit well enough to force his way into more playing time.

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Ted Schwerzler

 

I'm going bold and calling for a move of Kepler to catcher.  Not many at bats likely to be available between OF & 1B in the coming years.  Send him to the AFL to convert and since he's probably going to need to start next year in the minors he might as well be learning to play a position of need while doing so.  Should be an upgrade over Hermanson/Fryer by June.  Could split time with Suzuki after than and hopefully hit well enough to force his way into more playing time.

 

Yeah, that's not really how that works...

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Thrylos

Too premature to speculate that Ryan will still be with the Twins when the off-season comes...  Not winning since 1994 and many more wrong decisions than right, including hiring Gardenhire over Molitor in 2002, make his position fairly rocky...  20+ years of a Ryan-inspired and 15+ years of a Ryan-led front office are just enough...

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Ted Schwerzler
Too premature to speculate that Ryan will still be with the Twins when the off-season comes...  Not winning since 1994 and many more wrong decisions than right, including hiring Gardenhire over Molitor in 2002, make his position fairly rocky...  20+ years of a Ryan-inspired and 15+ years of a Ryan-led front office are just enough...

 

Sorry, but this is silly...

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mudcat14

 

I'm going bold and calling for a move of Kepler to catcher.  Not many at bats likely to be available between OF & 1B in the coming years.  Send him to the AFL to convert and since he's probably going to need to start next year in the minors he might as well be learning to play a position of need while doing so.  Should be an upgrade over Hermanson/Fryer by June.  Could split time with Suzuki after than and hopefully hit well enough to force his way into more playing time.

 

If we're gonna convert 6'4" southpaws into catchers, why not Gonslves? 

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