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How Do The Twins Trim The 40 Man?


Ted Schwerzler

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Major League Baseball is quickly pushing towards September 1st; a day in which big league rosters are allowed to expand from 25 to 40 players. For many teams, this involves some roster reconfiguration. The Minnesota Twins are not an exception, and will need to re-evaluate who they view worthy of holding down an ever important spot.

 

For the Twins, this season represents something a bit different, as they are in the midst of a playoff race. While they are likely going to be on the outside looking in, maximizing roster potential in September is a must. Terry Ryan and crew will need to make some difficult decisions in the coming week however. Let's take a look at some of the candidates on the chopping block.

 

Pitchers:

 

A.J. Achter-RHP

 

Achter was a 46th round pick by the Twins in 2010. He has appeared in just 13 big league games, and has pitched 18.1 innings to the tune of a 4.91 ERA. Much better in the minors, Achter owns a 2.90 ERA in 366.1 IP. This seasons for Triple-A Rochester, Achter has compiled a 2.74 ERA in 46.0 innings. At this point, Achter has done everything asked of him, but his stuff profiles more like an AAAA type. He may pass through waivers unclaimed, but he's probably not the type to right your bullpen.

 

Logan Darnell-LHP

 

The Twins haven't called upon Darnell in 2015 after he pitched 24 big league innings with a 7.13 ERA last season. He's had a solid 2015 for Triple-A Rochester, and he recently took a perfect game into the 6th inning in his last start (he's being stretched out of late). His 3.05 ERA and 7.6 K/9 are some of the best marks of his MiLB career. Darnell is either going to be given a shot to prove it, or needs to cede way to someone else though.

 

Brian Duensing-LHP

 

Including Duensing on this list is less about September than it is about this offseason. Minnesota took Duensing to arbitration over the winter and settled on a one-year, $2.7 million deal. They would be best served to cut ties after 2015. The longtime Twin has been better of late, but his 4.25 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is in line with his 4.01 career mark, and his 4.5 K/9 is ugly out of the pen. There are better options out there (and on the farm), who are also much cheaper.

 

Casey Fien-RHP

 

This is somewhat or a mixed-emotions add for me. My trust in Fien as a late inning reliever has waned in recent seasons, but he has also remained relatively consistent. Fien is arbitration eligible in 2016, and remains under team control until 2019. On that alone, I'm not sure I'm sold on removing him. However, his declining strikeout rates (10.6 K/9 in 2013, 7.2 in 14, and 5.2 in 15) are a problem, and his FIP has steadily increased each of the past three years (3.16 in 13, 3.43 in 14, 3.62 in 15). If there's a better option, I wouldn't be opposed to exploring it.

 

Ryan O'Rourke-LHP

 

Back in 2010, the Twins selected O'Rourke out of a small town college in Massachusetts. He's now 27, and made his big league debut this season. Despite being a LOOGY (lefty one out guy), he's been hit around to an ERA north of 5.00 for the Twins. His career 4.15 MiLB ERA isn't inspiring either. O'Rourke is allowing lefties to hit just .156/.250/.250 while striking out 16 in 32 at bats. He's walked one-fourth of the righties he's faced though, and isn't a real answer to a shaky pen.

 

Aaron Thompson-LHP

 

Thompson was an early season surpise for the Twins. The former first round pick owned a 2.11 ERA and a .181/.235/.278 slash line against in his first 21.1 IP. Then the wheels fell off. Over his final 24 games for the Twins, Thompson pitched to the tune of a 10.64 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash .388/.444/.490 off of him. Since being demoted back to Triple-A Rochester, Thompson owns a 4.76 ERA and has just a 7/4 K/BB ratio in 11.1 IP. It's probably best for the Twins to move on from the reclamation project whether he's claimed or not.

 

Jason Wheeler-LHP

 

A former 8th round pick in 2011, Wheeler has had quite an eventful 2015. He's been demoted to Double-A Chattanooga twice, while being promoted to Triple-A Rochester once after starting the season there. In total, he owns a 5.73 ERA and a measly 5.7 K/9. His Double-A numbers are better (4.34 ERA 7.6 K/9), but still show little reason to be hopeful. With pitching as an asset throughout the farm, the 40 man roster spot could go to better use.

 

Position Players:

 

Chris Herrmann-C

 

Much like Duensing, Herrmann isn't an immediate DFA option for the Twins. He's on the 25 man roster as the backup catcher, and with Josmil Pinto (who's not catching) as the only other 40 man option, this isn't happening now. Regardless, Herrmann isn't a big leaguer, and the Twins have some serious issues behind the dish. Over the winter, addressing their backstop situation is a must. Herrmann is slashing .159/.225/.305, which is bad (and even worse by the standards of a guy with a career .187/.254/.289 slash line). Minnesota needs some catching depth, and Herrmann doesn't qualify as that.

 

Eduardo Nunez-Util

 

Smoke and mirrors was what Eduardo Nunez put up for a good portion of 2015. Now the owner of a .268 average, Nunez owned a .302/.333/.508 slash line up until the All Star Break. The catch was that he played in just 22 games and had just 66 plate appearances. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR on the season, which is at least a positive. Nunez however was someone I thought could have been DFA'd prior to the 2015 season starting. Better utility options are generally out there, and as an arbitration guy this upcoming season, he's not going to be worth the expense.

 

Shane Robinson-OF

 

If anyone assumed their role better than Shane Robinson in 2015, I'm not aware of it. Brought in to be a 4th outfielder, he was exactly that. It was Jordan Schafer that was kept out of spring training at the detriment of Aaron Hicks, not Robinson. In his first season away from the Cardinals, Robinson has slashed .255/.306/.331. His five steals tie a career high, and his 0.5 fWAR is on pace to be a career best. His defense was a boost to a Twins outfield in flux, and he gave the club everything asked of him. Now with the outfield in a more stable situation, Robinson can be thanked for his contributions and be made expendable.

 

Oswaldo Arcia-OF

 

Easily the highest profile name on this list, Arcia puts the Twins in a tough spot. He has played just 19 games in the big leagues this season, and is not deserving of a September callup. Despite a career best .276/.338/.379 slash line at the MLB level, he compiled 15 strikeouts and just four walks. Despite being a power guy (34 HR the last two seasons), he swings and misses far too often. At Triple-A Rochester, Arcia owns a .206/.265/.385 slash line with 11 home runs 75 strikeouts and just 17 walks. He has hit just .108/.202/.176 since July 21, and his attitude combined with effort have been in question most of his career. Out of options going forward, Minnesota dealing him this offseason seems like a good avenue to explore.

 

With a farm system ready to overflow with prospects, and some worthy September call ups not being on the 40 man roster, Minnesota will need to begin some turnover. Abover are a few of the names to keep eyes on. As the Twins look to get back into a yearly playoff picture, Minnesota will need to fill the 40 man with more quality than quantity types.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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With HUnter and Pelfrey as free agents. You can also add the names of Kenys Vargas to the mix. Is there the need for a backup first baeman/DH/ You wonder if both him and Arcia deserve a call-up in September just to get some at bats to see if they add (ratehr than subtract) from their value.

 

The other name you let off is Brad Boyer, who did everything expected (like Thompson) and probably more, but is he really someone that you want to waste a 40-man spot on. Like a Chris Colabello, if someone signs him away, okay, otherwise you can probably sign him to a minor league contract and an invite to spring training.

 

When making 40-man roster decisions, and adding new guys by December who can't be removed randomly (except thru trade), you have to keep 2-3 guys around jsut in case of free-agent signings or trades. And you always like to have that dreaded Rule 5 possibility in play. 

 

And even though you might like to keep Graham and Pressley in the organization, you do have to weight their real worth to the team over any other names.

 

Who would you add for the September drive from the minors who are not already on the 40-man. What players do we have to consider adding to the 40-man come December.

 

Is Danny Santana worth keeping around. Do we give Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco more major league at bats to make them hungry for the big leagues, or let them sit out in playoff land in Chattanooga.

 

At one point, I would love to have seen Oliveros back with the team for more than a couple of innings, but his recent inactivity all but eans that he ahs thrown his last ball for the Twins. Also Stephen pryor won't get a chance. Doubt Mark Hamburger will get a shot. Don't see the Twins letting Jamie Beresford get a major league (albeit temporary) 40-man spot.

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Really like your assessments, especially regarding Robinson.

 

Don't know why there is such a keen angst toward this guy. He has done everything asked of him, and he's done it better than at any other point in his career. Be sure to thank him on his way out the door.

 

After keeping Graham on the roster all year following a Rule 5 draft, I'd be surprised to see him go. I'm not suggesting that his stats or age (he's 25 years old) warrant a long term commitment, but they seem to have kept him around for something. TR trying to catch lightening in a bottle again?

 

Had high hopes for Oliveros a few years back, and for Arcia recently. It will be interesting to see what happens to these two players.

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I think some of the angst for guys like Robinson, and in my case Hunter, is beyond their control. They are there and blocking better talent, so some frustration gets directed their way. As for Arcia, I have always been a fan of his. I think when he got injured, did well in Rochester, and was not called back he was getting jerked around by the FO. There is more their than we know about. It's probably time for him to be moved, since Kepler can fill all 3 OF spots, and 1B. But Oswaldo didn't just forget how to hit. He's only 24, and we will be watching him hit bombs on ESPN for years, likely in someone else's uniform.

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Nice summary. I expect Robinson will be back in 2016, at least in spring training. Relatively high value for his salary. The Twins will want to make sure that all of their young outfielders are healthy and mentally prepared for the season before Robinson is moved. The FO may want to see Kepler at AAA for the first month to make sure he get's off to a good start before making the show.

 

Arcia will stay on the 40-man roster. Spring training will be huge for him. It's possible he could be included in a multiple player trade in the offseason. Such high potential - it's a shame he can't improve his approach at the plate (or in the field). 

 

 

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Other than O'Rourke, I want none of those pitchers around in 2016. Nunez and Robinson have to go too. Herrmann as well if the Twins actually find a catcher out there.

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And with trades and other departures, there are going to be 10-12 spots if needed. Time to actually get serious about a proper 40-man roster now that contention is a real thing.

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Full disclosure, for whatever reason, I decided to not consider anyone on the DL currently (ie Boyer).

 

At the same time, IIRC Boyer is on the 15-day DL, so I'm guessing that if they needed to add someone for September, moving Boyer to the 60-day would be the easiest and first thing to do to clear a roster spot.

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At the same time, IIRC Boyer is on the 15-day DL, so I'm guessing that if they needed to add someone for September, moving Boyer to the 60-day would be the easiest and first thing to do to clear a roster spot.

 

Boyer was actually activated and Graham DL'd today. I believe my thought process is DL moves are fluid so don't touch.

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