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Rebuilding a Bullpen


jorgenswest

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The Twins bullpen has the poorest strike out rate in the majors. This is not a surprise and was projected when the 25 man roster was announced. The Twins may need to trade for bullpen help at the deadline. Before that happens, I hope they look at solutions internally.

 

The Twins need at most one LOOGY as opposed to the two they are using now.

 

These pitchers are possible internal solutions. The split rates are since 2011 unless otherwise specified. That allows a large enough sample in taking a split.

 

Duensing- In his career he has done much better against lefties with a 2.97 FIP, 19.4% K rate and 4.9% BB rate. Unfortunately his ability against lefties may be slipping. This year he has a 12.1% K rate and the same walk rate. He has never been effective against right handed pitching.

 

Thompson- He was used for multiple innings at the start of the year. His numbers against just lefties are better than Duensings this year with a 20% K rate and 12% walk rate. For his career he has been better against lefties but not to the extreme of the typical LOOGY.

 

Milone- Milone has reverse splits for his career. He should not replace Duensing or Thompson as a left handed relief specialist coming out of the pen. If he is in the pen, a Swarzak type role would be better.

 

Thielbar- He has so few innings at a single level to look at this years numbers alone. His major league numbers of 25.4% k-rate and 5.5% walk rate can not be matched by Duensing or Thompson. The numbers in the minors are better. I wonder if he is healthy and at the same skill level this year. He previous performance fits the LOOGY role better than Duensing or Thompson.

 

Rogers- Left handed batters can not touch him in the minors. He has a K rate of 30% and a walk rate of 3%. Lefthanded OPS against is .499. Right handed batters have much more success. The K-rate is cut in half at 15.5% while the walk rate more than doubles at 7.3%. Right handed batters have a .712 OPS.

 

No LOOGY- Is it possible that none of the options are so good against left handed batters that it isn't worthwhile keeping one of these guys in the pen? They do have Perkins who can come in and get a key lefty with two outs in the 8th.

 

There are some other candidates that might help in the pen.

 

Meyer- He has reverse platoon splits over his career striking out a greater rate of left handed hitters than right handed hitters. His career 30.4% K-rate of lefties is greater than any of the lefthanded pitchers listed above. If he finds success in relief, you might not want to take him out for a LOOGY.

 

Oliveros- He has very good strike out rates against left and right handed batters. His splits aren't reversed, but it doesn't appear he would be a pitcher that they would need to shield from left handed batters.

 

Achter- While his strike out rates have been much better against right handed batters, he hasn't allowed left handed batters to hit home runs very often. I am not sure how well that would translate to the major leagues. He might be someone they would want to keep away from left handed batters.

 

Tonkin- He hasn't faced many left handed batters in the majors and he hasn't done well in those 75 plate appearances. He had neutral platoon splits in the minors.

 

Pressly- His major league numbers are neutral. His FIP against lefties n the majors is better but OPS against is worse.

 

Boyer- His career numbers show less than 10% k-rate against left handed pitching. It is hard to imagine that he could be successful against lefties with that k-rate. On the whole he hasn't been successful. This year left handed batters have faced him 43 times. He has been extremely successful with a 2.51 FIP against lefties. Right handed batters have done very well against him this year resulting in a FIP of 5.09. If the numbers are real, he might be the best LOOGY option. Just don't let him pitch against a right handed batter. I fear the numbers are not real and his career strike out rate of 9.8% against lefties will resurface as he regresses.

 

Graham- Let him mop up as long as they can afford the roster space. There may come a time when contending leads to a move. He can be used as part of a trade package.

 

Perkins and Fien- I don't see any reason to move them out of their current roles.

 

The Twins might consider going with no LOOGY for a while. The Twins right handed relievers probably handle left handed batters as well as the left handed pitching options.

 

They might consider releasing Duensing while optioning Thompson and Tonkin. Bring in Meyer and give Thielbar a shot at LOOGY. If not Thielbar then Rogers. When Santana returns, they can make a decision about whether they need a LOOGY. If so, they will probably be back to an 8 man pen. They need to be careful about Boyer and evaluate at the all star break. His release might allow them to go back to 7 pitchers or he might be replaced by Tonkin, Oliveros or Achter.

 

Evaluate the bullpen again as the trade deadline approaches. If the internal solutions have not made an impact they will need to go outside and pay with some prospects in hopes of filling the need.

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I cannot fault your logic.  I admit, I have never been a fan of the LOOGY, except when the LOOGY is ultra successful. (My hindsight may not be 20-20, but I know how I feel).

 

I agree, considering their current performances,  to drop Duensing and Thompson and give Thielbar a try. Otherwise, the Twins are better off without a LOOGY.   :)

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Part of the problem with the whole ole LOOGY idea is the apparent definition. It's as if this ONE GUY can come off th bench to pitch to just ONE GUY. Period. And sometimes, I guess that is true. I prefer the idea of short or setup LH, who might be used as a true LOOGY once in a while, but also might pitch to 2-3 batters depending on the half inning. Face a LH, then a RH and hope for the best, (even a .300 BA is still an out 2/3 of the time), then face another LH before the inning is over, of the RP is pulled, or perhaps he gets 2 outs and then manager might let him finish the inning. But that's your short LH'er.

 

Thielbar: why wouldn't you look at him at this point. Love and respect Duensing, but at this point, UGH. However, might look at Thompson more in this role, but I'm growing skeptical. Was sooooo hoping for a big year as a full time reliever from Darnll. Hasn't happened yet. But these are a couple guys I'd be looking at as my short LH.

 

Rogers is just one of a few guys at Rochester and Chatanooga who are SP that could be really nice audition options for the "long-middle" LH spot. Milone could b another even though he fits best as a starter, but figures to be pushed aside with Santana back.

 

As I stated elsewhere winning or not, this is still a rebuilding year. Nothing wrong with running auditions.

 

There is NO good reason why Oliveros has not been up and given a shot yet this season. He was practically dismissed during ST. No clue why. I really want Tonkin, big and throws hard, to take a big step forward. He still hasn't.

 

NOBODY wants Meyer to be a reliever instead of a starter. But right now he's relieving and doing well at it. And if there is truly value in the whole idea of establishing yourself as a ML reliever first before transitioning yourself to ML starter, this kid should be a poster child.

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I think Thielbar deserves a spot in the Twins bullpen with Thompson getting optioned back.

Meyer will be a nice addition to the pen but the hope is probably for him to develop back into a starter. 

I like Perkins, Fien, Boyer, and Pressly in their current roles.

Graham is a rule-5 guy so unless he sucks that bad he has to stay for the rest of the year. He has done a pretty nice job, though. 

Duensing is a DFA candidate if he can't figure it out.

Eventually, the Twins should go back to 12 pitchers, especially with the team getting longer starts and possibly Graham being worthy of an expanded role, so the bullpen could look as follows:

 

CL: Perkins

SU: Fien/Boyer

MR: Thielbar/Pressly

LR: Meyer/Graham

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