Rebuilding a Bullpen
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The Twins bullpen has the poorest strike out rate in the majors. This is not a surprise and was projected when the 25 man roster was announced. The Twins may need to trade for bullpen help at the deadline. Before that happens, I hope they look at solutions internally.
The Twins need at most one LOOGY as opposed to the two they are using now.
These pitchers are possible internal solutions. The split rates are since 2011 unless otherwise specified. That allows a large enough sample in taking a split.
Duensing- In his career he has done much better against lefties with a 2.97 FIP, 19.4% K rate and 4.9% BB rate. Unfortunately his ability against lefties may be slipping. This year he has a 12.1% K rate and the same walk rate. He has never been effective against right handed pitching.
Thompson- He was used for multiple innings at the start of the year. His numbers against just lefties are better than Duensings this year with a 20% K rate and 12% walk rate. For his career he has been better against lefties but not to the extreme of the typical LOOGY.
Milone- Milone has reverse splits for his career. He should not replace Duensing or Thompson as a left handed relief specialist coming out of the pen. If he is in the pen, a Swarzak type role would be better.
Thielbar- He has so few innings at a single level to look at this years numbers alone. His major league numbers of 25.4% k-rate and 5.5% walk rate can not be matched by Duensing or Thompson. The numbers in the minors are better. I wonder if he is healthy and at the same skill level this year. He previous performance fits the LOOGY role better than Duensing or Thompson.
Rogers- Left handed batters can not touch him in the minors. He has a K rate of 30% and a walk rate of 3%. Lefthanded OPS against is .499. Right handed batters have much more success. The K-rate is cut in half at 15.5% while the walk rate more than doubles at 7.3%. Right handed batters have a .712 OPS.
No LOOGY- Is it possible that none of the options are so good against left handed batters that it isn't worthwhile keeping one of these guys in the pen? They do have Perkins who can come in and get a key lefty with two outs in the 8th.
There are some other candidates that might help in the pen.
Meyer- He has reverse platoon splits over his career striking out a greater rate of left handed hitters than right handed hitters. His career 30.4% K-rate of lefties is greater than any of the lefthanded pitchers listed above. If he finds success in relief, you might not want to take him out for a LOOGY.
Oliveros- He has very good strike out rates against left and right handed batters. His splits aren't reversed, but it doesn't appear he would be a pitcher that they would need to shield from left handed batters.
Achter- While his strike out rates have been much better against right handed batters, he hasn't allowed left handed batters to hit home runs very often. I am not sure how well that would translate to the major leagues. He might be someone they would want to keep away from left handed batters.
Tonkin- He hasn't faced many left handed batters in the majors and he hasn't done well in those 75 plate appearances. He had neutral platoon splits in the minors.
Pressly- His major league numbers are neutral. His FIP against lefties n the majors is better but OPS against is worse.
Boyer- His career numbers show less than 10% k-rate against left handed pitching. It is hard to imagine that he could be successful against lefties with that k-rate. On the whole he hasn't been successful. This year left handed batters have faced him 43 times. He has been extremely successful with a 2.51 FIP against lefties. Right handed batters have done very well against him this year resulting in a FIP of 5.09. If the numbers are real, he might be the best LOOGY option. Just don't let him pitch against a right handed batter. I fear the numbers are not real and his career strike out rate of 9.8% against lefties will resurface as he regresses.
Graham- Let him mop up as long as they can afford the roster space. There may come a time when contending leads to a move. He can be used as part of a trade package.
Perkins and Fien- I don't see any reason to move them out of their current roles.
The Twins might consider going with no LOOGY for a while. The Twins right handed relievers probably handle left handed batters as well as the left handed pitching options.
They might consider releasing Duensing while optioning Thompson and Tonkin. Bring in Meyer and give Thielbar a shot at LOOGY. If not Thielbar then Rogers. When Santana returns, they can make a decision about whether they need a LOOGY. If so, they will probably be back to an 8 man pen. They need to be careful about Boyer and evaluate at the all star break. His release might allow them to go back to 7 pitchers or he might be replaced by Tonkin, Oliveros or Achter.
Evaluate the bullpen again as the trade deadline approaches. If the internal solutions have not made an impact they will need to go outside and pay with some prospects in hopes of filling the need.
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