Replacing Santana
Entry posted by jorgenswest ·
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As Ervin Santana gets ready for his first start in Rochester, I wondered what the impact of his loss has been on the Twins thus far. Mike Pelfrey was his immediate replacement and he has certainly stepped up to the task. He has far outperformed what we might have expected from Santana. It isn't really fair to compare his performance to just Pelfrey though.
I looked at the performance of Pelfrey, May and Milone. All three had opportunities that may not have been available had Santana not let down his team with his suspension.
The three together have combined for 32 starts thus far. In those 32 starts, they went 12-9 with a 3.59 ERA in 188 innings. The 32 starts represent a full season with an ERA+ of 111. Wow! No one could have projected those numbers.
What should have been expected from Santana? Last year he had an ERA+ of 93 with the Braves. He was very good in 2013 and absolutely awful in 2012. He is projected by Steamer to have an ERA of 4.31.
Is it possible that his absence has helped in the win column? Had Santana performed as projected, it may have cost the Twins 1 or 2 wins. I would go further and suggest that the timing of his suspension may have contributed to the Twins awful start to the season. Maybe it would be 2-3 wins (instead of 1-2) had they never signed him.
It would be unwise to use first half numbers to project second half numbers. I am not sure what their updated projections will look like, but they probably will be similar to Santana's and somewhat worse than league average ERA. I don't think projections would clearly show Santana as a better option among the four. He will add depth.
At this point, it doesn't appear Santana's loss has cost the Twins in the win column. It is likely just the opposite. I think Santana's suspension has had a positive impact on the win loss record thus far. I think it has been worth 2 wins.
Is it possible Santana's addition and placement in the starting rotation will cost them in the win column? This is a team that appears to have developed a good chemistry. May, Milone and Pelfrey have seized the opportunity and earned the trust of their teammates. If Santana is going to have a positive impact upon returning, he needs to start by being lights out in Rochester. Milone set that bar. Santana needs to approach it.
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