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Breaking Down The April That Was


Ted Schwerzler

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The Minnesota Twins are now into May, and they have completed the first month of their 2015 Major League Baseball season. After starting off on an ugly note against the Detroit Tigers, the team has settled in a played competitive baseball on a nightly basis (as should have been the assumption). Just two games below .500, there's no doubt this team has left some wins on the table. There's plenty of encouraging notes as we head into the summer months however.

At 10-12, the Twins head into May in sole possession of the third spot in the AL Central division standings. Ahead of both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians, the Twins trail the division leading Kansas City Royals by five games. Currently in the midst of a series with Chicago, they have an opportunity to distance themselves further from the bottom of the Central. Pitching and defense have been the plaguing issues in the early going, but there's plenty of reason to believe both areas continue to improve.

Looking at some key players on this Twins team, early returns are actually in a better place than they were a year ago. After setting a major league record in regards to BB/9 in 2014, Phil Hughes has actually started better in 2015.

 

14: 5.14 ERA 26 K 6 BB 16 ER

15: 4.55 ERA 26 K 2 BB 16 ER

 

In fact, the biggest detriment to Hughes in the early going has been the lack of offense he has been afforded by his team. He's 0-4 in his first five games, despite rarely being the reason for those losses (in case it needed to be hammered home more that wins are a terrible stat for starting pitchers).

 

First 5 starts for Phil Hughes 14: Offense produced 30 total runs

15: Offense produced 11 total runs

 

On the offensive side, there is no more polarizing player for the Twins than Joe Mauer. Despite being knocked consistently for a contract that he signed as a catcher in the Metrodome, Mauer has continued to produce for the Twins. Dealing with the lingering effects from a concussion and an oblique injury in 2014, it was apparent he wasn't himself. Although it's only been one month into the 2015 season, it looks like the former batting champ is returning to form just fine.

 

Joe Mauer in April: 14: .276/.388/.337 1 HR 6 RBI 28 K

15: .318/.392/.412 13 RBI 14 K

 

Looking at some of the issues that have plagued the Twins in the early going, it's pretty difficult to look past the bullpen pitching and outfield defense. The latest debacle for the bullpen came in Hughes' last start in which a 7-3 Minnesota lead was squandered after the 5th inning, allowing the Tigers to grab the win by a tally of 10-7. Terry Ryan took fliers on low ceiling veterans such as Brian Duensing, Blaine Boyer, and Tim Stauffer to round out his bullpen and so far the results haven't been good.

 

Duensing has been a mainstay with the Twins, mainly relied upon as being a lefty arm out of the pen. Although currently on the DL (he's scheduled to return Saturday May 2), he owns a 7.36 ERA. The only pen arm worse than Duensing has been Stauffer. Throwing to an 8.38 ERA allowing 10 ER on 16 H in just 9.2 innings, it's been a train wreck from the get go. With players coming back to the fold following injury, it would appear Stauffer's time with the club could be coming to a close. Boyer started the season on an ugly note, but has since turned it around currently owning a 3.65 ERA. His .298 AVG against isn't promising, but for now he's hanging on at least.

While getting to the 9th inning has been a chore for the Twins, their man in the closer role has been lights out. After dealing with injuries to end 2014 and in spring training, Glen Perkins has looked sharp in the early going. His shiny 1.00 ERA and six saves make him once again look like one of the best closers in the American League. Behind the pitching, the Twins have faltered in the outfield.

 

Employing bats in the form of Oswaldo Arcia and Torii Hunter on the corners, their defense has taken a hit. With neither hitting consistently yet (Arcia .250/.310/.365) Hunter .205/.244/.315) the lack of ability in the field has been more prevalent. Combining that with a lackluster Jordan Schafer roaming center, the Twins have watched more circus play in the grass than they have seen any bit of spectacular ability or runs saved.

Considering where the Twins have issues however, the club is actually in a great place. Roster moves should be coming soon, and most of them should provide an immediate uptick in productivity. With the Tigers and Royals both scorching hot, there's no doubt that they will cool off at some point during the summer. Minnesota is in a good position, and remains in striking distance.

If Paul Molitor can continue to work with and develop this club, they have the ability to turn some heads as the season draws on. Minnesota needs to hang around .500, and know that they have the ability to move on up as key moves are made throughout the organization.

 

For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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I'm happy with where this team is at this point in the season, or maybe not happy, but it's about where I expected them to be. Youth is coming, and I'm pleasantly suprised that both Phil and Pelf have been getting strikeouts, something that's been sorely missing from Twins arms the last few years. The bullpen has an even lower K rate than the starters, and the starters are the worst in the AL! Yikes!

 

But I agree, when your offense is scoring the near the bottom of the league in runs/game, and your defense is giving up nearly a run/game... it's not the pitching that's hurting this team early on, which is a big change from the recent past.

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The pitching is in a good spot, and the bullpen will improve as it is turned over. The offense is starting to hit and that's a welcomed transition.

 

While I'd love to be above .500, I think being where we are and seeing the arrow pointing up is a good thing. Last year, we were waiting for it to inevitably fall aprt, that isn't the case this time around.

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We're not waiting for it to fall apart, because we're already in the dumps. The pitching is markedly better from the past, but it still has a long way to go. This staff needs to miss more bats, because the defense is awful, and they're going to give away a lot of runs.

 

But yes, things are trending in the right direction. Can they keep it up? I don't know. A few guys have looked much better this week, most notably Santana, but he still hasn't taken a walk this season... scary.

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If you told me the Twins would be 10-12 at the end of April, I would have been relatively satisfied given all the games in the division.

 

The journey has been a bit of a roller coaster starting in a deep valley and making an uphill climb.  And there have been some real learning experiences -- I hope we are seeing the Twins take advantage of them.  It was nice to see them come back strong from a very disappointing loss to the Tigers on Wednesday.

 

The other thing that strikes me is that if some things fall apart, there are actually some decent options this year.  If something happens with one of the starters, I feel pretty good about bringing up Milone instead of having to search the Rochester roster.  Rosario and Hicks have started off well enough that one or both of them could be on the ML roster in the near future.  Plus Buxton is looking good at AA but I think they'll be cautious on how fast they bring him up.  And there are a few options out there for the BP, too.

 

Overall, the Twins are making it interesting to watch.  I didn't think Cleveland and Chicago would be as lousy as they've been so it is nice to take advantage of them now before they get it together.

 

 

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JB, you essentially have summed up the season in a nutshell, and categorized why this team is different going forward. Despite having to climb out of a big hole, they have showed they will play competitive baseball this summer.

 

The futility is probably not completely a thing of the past, but there's significantly more reason to believe things are trending upwards than there is that they aren't.

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We're not waiting for it to fall apart, because we're already in the dumps. The pitching is markedly better from the past, but it still has a long way to go. This staff needs to miss more bats, because the defense is awful, and they're going to give away a lot of runs.

But yes, things are trending in the right direction. Can they keep it up? I don't know. A few guys have looked much better this week, most notably Santana, but he still hasn't taken a walk this season... scary.

 

I guess I think suggesting "we're already in the dumps" is a bit much. Considering what has taken place this season, being a game over .500 is a great place to be right now. This staff isn't lights out, but they're far better than serviceable.

 

As far as keeping it up, the best thing to see is that other contributions have been made in conjunction with the assumed regression. Danny Santana and Kurt Suzuki were not going to repeat their 2014, conversely, neither was Joe Mauer. They have created a net equal, and the offense has clipped along nicely.

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I hoped the Twins would basically be a .500 club coming out of April, against their own division. It will be interesting to see if they pick up ground against the West, while losing ground to the east. The Twins have a fine rotation, but won't always match up favorably against another team #1 or #2.

 

The defense has holes. The offense is starting to produce. If the starters can keep the team in the game and go at least six innings, it will be a blessing. Seven innings a joy. The bullpen is still a mish-mash of shambles. Lots of okay pitchers leading to Perkins. Fien will hopefully not be the Burton of 2015.

 

I'm comfortable that we have Hicks showing something in Rochester, as well as Pinto. I am worried about Santana OBP, and see he is probably shifting downward in the order. I'm not sure if thee Vargas wake-up call will keep him in the majors or if he is better served at Rochester. Like Arcia, he may just be an up-and-down player, but better to keep him in the majors and remind him and work with him here. Of course, the question is: If we send them out, who comes up.

 

I had considered the central division to be somewhat of a crapshoot. All the teams COULD be somewhat evenly matched with 1-2 runs deciding the game and not alot of blowouts. Again, if the starters can keep the other team down to 3-4 runs, and if the Twins bats can match, then it should be exciting baseball with the games being decided on play in the field, bullpen, or that one special batting moment. I didn't expect Detroit to be this strong, or even Kansas City. I'm happy that the White Sox and Indians are struggling. If the Twins can finish in the middle of the division, most folks will be happy.

 

Now, if the Twins gave out winter hats everyday this summer, they would draw a tremendous crowd, but still see attendance hanging around a 20,000 a game average, sadly.

 

 

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Being 13-12 after facing an AL Central heavy schedule is nice to see. The rotation is in a good spot compared to years past, even if it isn't premier in terms of AL talent. They don't necessarily have to match up well on top as long as they can keep it competitive on a nightly basis, this offense will score. Ask Trevor May ;)

 

There's no doubt the defense has hole. Santana must play a more sound SS, and Hicks in CF should be a better situation than Schafer in the near future. It's bad, but probably not quite as bad as metrics say. The bullpen will continue to be better the more moves they make like the ones this weekend. We can only hope Stauffer is DFA'd following his DL stint.

 

Santana is already batting ninth, and while his OBP is scary, it's good to note that he's now hitting and it can only go up. Vargas is chasing because he didn't have to see guys that pitched in AA, more so just throwers. I think a swap for Pinto would do him some good and allow him to refine his swing in a more ideal situation.

 

This team is going to continue to be competitive all summer, and they should provide more fun baseball than they don't. I didn't see either Detroit or KC being this good either, which could be a positive if they regress some. I don;t think the Indians or White Sox are as bad as they have looked, but they have to turn it around. Finishing third in the division would be great, but this team has plenty of opportunity to continue to impress.

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