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Postseason Review: Bullpen


stringer bell

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The last two years, the Twins' bullpen has been incredibly stable. They've also been regarded as quite effective, especially when compared to the starting rotation. During the last leg of the season, the bullpen wasn't effective or efficient. I'm going to discuss the players who were on the club for much or most of the season.

 

Six pitchers spent all season with the Twins and most of their innings in the bullpen: Swarzak, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Perkins. They all threw between 47 and 68 innings, with Swarzak again logging the most frames and Thielbar the least. With so many measures to view overall effectiveness, it is really hard to summarize the group, other than to point out that five of these six relievers gave up more hits than innings pitched. Only Glen Perkins struck out more than one batter per inning and all of their ERAs were over three. As a relief staff, the Twins didn't strike out many, but didn't walk many. This wasn't a bullpen that overpowered hitters, as a group they were effective when they hit their spots and the ball hit in play found the gloves of the Twins' fielders. Here's a brief thumbnail of each along with a projection for 2015:

 

Thielbar: After having a fine rookie campaign, Caleb Thielbar pitched a pretty anonymous 47.1 innings. He was pretty close to equally effective vs. left or right. Like most Twins' relievers, he weakened at the end of the season. Thielbar is not eligible for arbitration, which increases his value. I expect that Caleb will be a member of the coming year's bullpen.

 

Duensing: The WHIP is up, Ks are down. Duensing was the only all-season reliever to have his ERA outpace his FIP by a substantial amount. I have liked Duensing because of his versatility and durability, but he will be arb-eligible, he is a strong candidate to be non-tendered. I, for one, hope that the Twins find a way to keep the veteran lefty, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is traded or non-tendered.

 

Perkins: Publicly, the Twins are saying that Perkins is an All-Star closer and that his pitching arm is fine. While I am glad that there isn't something seriously wrong with his arm, I'm not convinced that his performance going forward won't become an issue. Perkins got his swings and misses and his strikeouts in 2014, but even before his dismal September, his velocity was down and he allowed a lot of hard hit balls, not all of which should have been caught. He allowed 32 hits in 32 innings from June-August before his (injury fueled) drop-off in September. Just about every stat went the wrong way in 2014. At the very least, Perk will have to make some adjustments.

 

Swarzak: He won points with his manager and pitching coach by taking the ball. However, his coach and manager will be different in 2015. Swarzak's role is long relief and they just aren't very valuable unless they can evolve into a late-inning role or a spot in the rotation. It looks to me like long relief is Swarzak's only role. Swarzak garnered four starts, with mostly unimpressive results and wasn't much better in higher leverage situations. The numbers say he regressed to the mean after a very good 2013. His WHIP was up, walks up, and strikeouts down. Since he's arbitration-eligible and out of options, I expect Swarzak will be pitching for someone else next year.

 

Burton: Burton was a solid performer in 2012, less solid in 2013, and started out horribly in 2014. He pitched better as the season wore on, and by the end of the season was the Twins most reliable reliever IMHO. The warning signs started in 2013. His velocity was down, and it lessened the effectiveness of his out pitch (change-up). The numbers point the wrong way--WHIP, hits per IP and BB up, Ks down. Burton also was victimized by base stealers, unable or unwilling to keep runners close. The Twins pretty much closed the door on his return by buying out his 2015 option. The 33 year old Burton will be a free agent and I doubt the Twins will seriously try to re-sign him.

 

Fien: Like Burton and Thielbar, Fien was picked off the scrap heap. His performance when called up in 2012 was excellent and surprising. He started strong in 2013, but faded. That script was followed in 2014. Fien was the principle 8th inning guy and did well holding leads. In his few attempts to close games, he couldn't get it done. Fien's two-pitch mix requires excellent command. If he's a little off, the ball can travel a long, long way. He allowed slightly more hits than innings pitched, struck out far fewer batters and yielded some big innings. At 31, it is doubtful that he can improve much. Much like Swarzak, Duensing, and Burton, it seems likely that we've seen the best these guys have to offer. It makes sense to move several of the bullpen guys and replace them with younger guys with power arms.

 

This concludes my "Postseason Reviews". To summarize, there are a lot of pretty good players already in the majors. The talent needs to be augmented by an improved pitching staff and maybe some premium talent that is getting close to arriving.

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like the review, feel much the same way you do.  Feel the Duensing should be traded as would hate to see him give away for nothing.  Fien will be back, hopefully in more of a seventh inning role.  Bullpen needs a makeover and the young pitchers(Burdi, Reed, and others need to be given their chances.

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The bullpen is solid. We could roll with 4 or 5 of the same 6 pitchers with Burton out and maybe Swarzak.  I am not going to say he's definitely out at this point as most of the options from the high minors are ok options but not great and Swarzak is still not too expensive.  So we'll see with him.

 

In terms of whose good enough to stay I think Perkins, obviously, Thielbar cause he too was effective again and inexpensive, Fien was 2nd best reliever, and Deunsing was arguably the best first half reliever that didn't close games. 

 

But adding a few power arms will be a big welcome addition to the pen as Burdi could move Fien to the 7th inning and Oliveras or Achter may replace Swarzak as the long man.  I would think that would be enough of an overhaul to start the season unless Deunsing is included in a trade which I can see as a possibility especially if we take on salary in that trade. 

 

I think a real key for the bullpen next year is to find another starting pitcher that can go 200 innings.  Having 4 guys do that can put the bullpen in position to be real effective as they can have more rest and maybe even go to a 7 man bullpen for stretches and have a longer bench.

 

Something I wrote about last year as part of the Twins winning formula is to have 5 solid average starters and an above average pen = a better than average team ERA.

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I wouldn't be too hard on these guys for allowing a lot of hits - the defense behind them was way below average. The problem is that most of them saw a decline in their K/9 while their BB/9 went the other way. They also didn't do a very good job of stranding inherited runners, which led to a lot of big innings. Declining on Burton was the right decision, and I'd move on from Duensing and Swarzak, too.

 

KC's bullpen should be an inspiration. Adding a couple of shut-down guys to go with Perkins could shorten games and make the work of the offense stand up. There is definitely some potential for guys like that in the pipeline, with several intriguing prospects likely starting the year at AA or above. I hope some of those guys will get a chance in 2015. But other than finding an outfielder who can reliably catch the ball, adding a stud reliever or two is probably going to give the Twins the biggest bang for their offseason bucks.

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