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New 25-man Roster for 2015


Shane Wahl

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This is not going to be significantly different than the earlier version mid-season, but here is my hopeful 25-man roster for 2015. This will obviously hint at my offseason blueprint.

 

Position players:

 

Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Miguel Sano, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas, Chris Herrmann, Jordan Schafer

 

Pitchers:

 

Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Ricky Nolasco, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Deolis Guerra/AJ Achter, Lester Oliveros, Cole Johnson, Caleb Thielbar, Casey Fien, Glen Perkins (probably keeping May as the sixth man, but also using in strikeout-is-needed 6th and 7th inning situations. The Santana signing is wishful, especially at either 2/36 or 3/42.

 

I am clearly already trading Brian Duensing, Michael Tonkin, and Anthony Swarzak for anything I can get. I am cutting ties with Mike Pelfrey because I am not bothering with wasting a roster spot for him anymore.

 

I would then look to trade Suzuki, Escobar, and Fien at some point in 2015. Nothing big, but just adding some talent to the farm system.

 

Replacing them would be Byron Buxton (Pinto/Herrmann duo behind the plate), James Beresford, and Nick Burdi.

 

This is just how I would do things right now. It might change, especially with injuries and other reports from the offseason.

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Trading Suzuki after we just signed him to that extension? I'm not sure that makes sense, especailly to dump him for "just adding some talent to the farm system." I think this team is a lot closer to contention, and that at some point you have to stop building for the future and start completing the roster for now. Maybe winning in 2015 is still out of the question, but 2016 and beyond this team should be at/near the top of the division and ready for a run at a championship.

 

I can't get on board with sending Zuke away, but the rest of your ideas sound good to me. Herrmann behind the plate? No thanks.  I like Escobar, I think he's still got some upside, and absolutely has value on the roster, but I could take it or leave it.

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I have to agree with Mr. Pleiss - the proposed combination of PInto and Herrmann handling the pitching staff makes me queasy.  I would go bold and trade Trevor Plouffe this offseason - his value has risen (we always trade players when their value has declined and expect great returns) and possibly could fetch the left fielder we are looking for.  Slide Escobar to 3B until Sano comes up late-May/early-June - by then, we'll know if Santana is going to stick at SS.  Escobar could go back to SS or return to being a very good utility infielder.  I would rather go down this path than try to force Plouffe into an outfield role - I think it is a coin-flip on whether he would succeed in the outfield defensively while his offensive output would be about average (I see him as a poor man's Cuddyer).  Plouffe's trade value will begin to decline withing two years as he hits his '30's so let's maximize his return now.

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So Ervin Santana is all that would be added to try to turn this club around? And with the way prospects are held back this looks like the making of another 90+ loss team with not much chance for any success.

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Honestly, I don't expect much more than one free agent pitcher signing, someone like McCarthy or Masterson, perhaps up to Santana.  There is a need for a good defensive outfielder who can hold his own at the plate, but almost all of the available free agents are bat-first players and there aren't many who would significantly improve the defense.  If the Twins get an outfielder, it probably will be through trade.

 

Secondly, it looks like the drumbeat has really started to bring up the top prospects, ready or not.  Buxton would be expected to skip two level after playing less than fifty games last year, Sano would be expected to skip one level after playing zero games in 2014.  Just not feasible IMHO. 

 

Finally, Shane, I know you really like Herrmann, I just don't know why.  In parts of three seasons, he has 276 PAs and an OPS+ of 53.   I wouldn't call him a defensive whiz behind the plate or in the outfield and he will turn 27 this year.  The much-derided Pedro Florimon has a higher OPS+ (57) despite putting up a -11 in 86 PAs this year. 

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I can't disagree a lot with your roster Shane. But I would take a more conservative, and to me more logical approach, to what I would expect the "opening" roster to be.

 

Arcia will be in RF, and a FA will be in LF. CF will be a battle between Hicks, Schafer, and an inexpensive FA or similar trade candidate. Two would make the club, one as the 4th OFer, or we could see a semi-platoon situation. (Santana could possibly see some time as a backup as well) I'm not convinced that Parmelee doesn't still have some "Randy Bush-like" value as a reserve as well.

 

Mauer, Dozier, Santana and Plouffe is my infield. Escobar deserves to play...a lot...and will. I keep Nunez, who I think is a better overall utility/spare part and decent bat than some give him credit for. During ST, I work Escobar and Nunez pretty hard at LF and some at 1B as well. It's not because I want them to be any kind of regular there, I just want to know if I can play them there for days off or sub situations. Vargas is clearly the primary DH and backup 1B.

 

Catcher is simple, Suzuki and Pinto. Hoping Pinto grows, gets a real chance, and becomes the primary before the season is done.

 

I know that's 14 position players. But I'm allowing myself 1 over to allow for injury or a milb move.

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I'd be more inclined to trade Hicks than Plouffe. Plouffe can be be a plus fielder.  He is faster than Parmalee and has a strong arm.  I don't think ErvIn Santana is good enough to be in the Twins 2015 rotation.  I'd rather see us trade for a younger unproven lefty to match with Milone. 

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Anybody expecting the team to contend next year should think again. This is only year two the rebuild, the team chose to ignore reality in 2012 and 2013. Injuries to Sano, Buxton, Meyer and May as well as the PED suspension of Rosario haven't helped either.

 

Either the kids gotta play and the team takes its lumps or another year of plug and play AAAA players and the team takes its lumps and loses more fans at the gate.

 

What will the Twins brain trust do??

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I'm concerned about the bench bats in your scenario, you would have Shafer, Hicks, Hermann, and Pinto as bench bats and Pinto is the only semi power threat. I wouldn't trust any of those guys in a PH situation

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Thanks for responding, everyone!

Some issues: Yes, I like Chris Herrmann . . . I jumped on that train after 2011, when he was very good for his positional flexibility. And then 2012 was pretty good too, though the Twins didn't push him. 2013 was bad all around. He was great in AAA this year, though. The numbers are there and the defensively ability at catcher is really there too. He is likely just about average defensively there, but that makes his ability to play there and the corner OF positions more valuable. He struggled in the majors, but he is now making more contact, which matters. I like the value of him overall more than Eric Fryer. The potential for a .680+ OPS as a super utility guy is still there.

Terry Steinbach is likely a failure . . . Pinto and Herrmann should be adequate catchers. They both were in the minors.

Suzuki is going to regress significantly, offensively. It sucks. To counter that Mauer must return to form. It's vitally important that he does so, as I discussed a few months ago in another blog post.

I believe in Aaron Hicks. I do think that he was always destined to be a corner OF after the addition of Buxton. He could be an elite corner OF. This would be important for his career.

There are viable ways to produce a lineup of:

Buxton

Santana
Mauer

Sano

Vargas

Arcia

Dozier

Pinto

Hicks

With Plouffe, Suzuki, Escobar, and X on the bench (Herrmann, Romero, Beresford, etc.). Or you move around things to get Plouffe in and Hicks out.
 

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Thanks for responding, everyone!

Some issues: Yes, I like Chris Herrmann . . . I jumped on that train after 2011, when he was very good for his positional flexibility. And then 2012 was pretty good too, though the Twins didn't push him. 2013 was bad all around. He was great in AAA this year, though. The numbers are there and the defensively ability at catcher is really there too. He is likely just about average defensively there, but that makes his ability to play there and the corner OF positions more valuable. He struggled in the majors, but he is now making more contact, which matters. I like the value of him overall more than Eric Fryer. The potential for a .680+ OPS as a super utility guy is still there.

Terry Steinbach is likely a failure . . . Pinto and Herrmann should be adequate catchers. They both were in the minors.

Suzuki is going to regress significantly, offensively. It sucks. To counter that Mauer must return to form. It's vitally important that he does so, as I discussed a few months ago in another blog post.

I believe in Aaron Hicks. I do think that he was always destined to be a corner OF after the addition of Buxton. He could be an elite corner OF. This would be important for his career.

 

There are viable ways to produce a lineup of:

Buxton

Santana

Mauer

Sano

Vargas

Arcia

Dozier

Pinto

Hicks

 

With Plouffe, Suzuki, Escobar, and X on the bench (Herrmann, Romero, Beresford, etc.). Or you move around things to get Plouffe in and Hicks out.

 

Again, I'm mostly with you here. And I'm also on record as being a Hermann fan. I think he's solid as a C, can be moved around a bit, and has a potentially solid bat with gapper and occasional HR power. And I have maintained that Hermann's biggest problem has been getting jerked around from the minors to the majors the last couple of seasons without being allowed to just concentrate on development. I think we may end up at the point, sooner rather than later, where perhaps he's pushed aside by Turner and/or Garver.

 

I also believe Hicks is similar to Carlos Gomez in the fact he simply came up too soon. And you have to temper expectation and ability/potential vs initial disappointment. When you have a top 100 talent, you can't allow yourself to grow too frustrated too quickly. That's how you get burned giving up on a young talent too soon simply because you wanted tomorrow to be today.

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