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Be careful what you wish for...


Fire Dan Gladden

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To everybody that has been calling for Ron Gardenhire's head, congratulations. Your voice has finally been heard. Make no bones about it, this decision was not a baseball decision, but a decision based on the growing public perception that Ron Gardenhire is the main reason for the Twins losing 90 games plus each season four years in a row.

 

If there is any question of Gardenhire's perception outside of Minnesota, read the public comments on the national articles. The comments are fairly consistent.

 

"Gardenhire got a bad rap in Minnesota."

 

"Would [insert team here] please fire [said team's manager] and hire Gardenhire? We would love to have him"

 

"Gardenhire is getting the blame for the Twins refusal to spend money. We would take him in a heartbeat"

 

The reality is that Terry Ryan had previously stated publicly that he expected Gardenhire back next year. Ryan has been very direct and straight with the media. He will withhold comment rather than publicly say something damaging. No reason to think he was lying then. What changed?

 

Enter the Pohlads. Owners that have regularly treated this team as a business, looking only at profit/loss, not following the spend-money-to-make-money philosophy. Lagging ticket sales, a rash of recent negative publicity, underporformance from your highest paid players. What is the quickest, cheapest way to make a change to make it look like you are doing something?

 

Fire the manager.

 

Ryan and Gardenhire have been phenomenal in working within the confines created by the Pohlads. Injuries and bad luck have had as large an impact on this team as anything. If anybody thinks that bringing in a new manager will fundamentally change the way the Twins draft, spend, train, or run their organization they will be sadly mistaken.

 

I hope the individuals that have been calling for Gardenhire's head for the past few years will also praise him as he leads his next team into the playoffs. Rick Anderson will probably be with him as they do. As for us, we can only hope that the next Twins manager will be as capable as Gardenhire was.

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If the Pohlads truly treated this as a business as you wrote, wouldn't they have been more active in changing managers in a sport where that is a normal course of action? Instead, they gave both Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire the managerial latitude to each lose 90 games 4 years in a row - something accomplished only twice in the rest of baseball history. (And one of those other managers actually owned the team.) Also, if they were so concerned with saving money, dismissing Gardenhire with a year left on his contract doesn't make much sense since they now have to eat that money.

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Teflon and B Richard, you both misunderstand.  Treating the team as a business does not mean they are looking to win every year.  It means they are looking to make money.  Why do you think payroll has dropped so precipitously since moving to Target Field?

 

The move to relieve Gardenhire of his job is a very cheap way (relative to MLB anyways) to make it look like you are making an effort to win.  The Pohlads are only making this move now in an effort to improve public perception of the team, which theoretically will sell more tickets. 

 

Firing Gardenhire was not a baseball decision, rather a financial one by the Pohlads.

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The Twins smallest payroll since moving to Target Field is 25% in excess of what they spent their last season in the Dome and their average salary since moving to Target Field is 45% higher.

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 Why do you think payroll has dropped so precipitously since moving to Target Field?

 

Payroll spiked precipitously with the move to Target Field.  It went up more in 2011 when they went for it and failed miserably.  In 2012 and 2013 they cut payroll because they were in the process of blowing the thing up to rebuild.  

 

In 2014 they started spending again.  It didn't get them far because a few key pieces under-performed.  This year I expect them add at least one solid free agent (two would be nice) - not elite, but in the Hughes or Nolasco payroll range (and hopefully in the Hughes performance range).  If the under-performers bounce back, they could compete

 

 

 

 

Firing Gardenhire was not a baseball decision, rather a financial one by the Pohlads.

 

I disagree.  The only financial benefit i see is it might help make the team better which might sell more tickets.

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People go to the ballpark hopng to see the Twins WIN.  I think the Pohlads are stingy, sure. But I don't believe for a second that Terry was asking for more high salary free agents, and Dave and Jim shot him down. Terry Ryan is by nature a conservative general manager, a garage sale guy.  He looks for bargain basement players.  That is NOT how to build a winner.

 

Gardy wasn't soem genius that ownership did dirty. He played favorites. He spurned the kids in favor of his Kubel and Bartlet retreads.  Ownership gave $23 million a year to a glorified singles hitter who is not a leader. It spent way too much on long shots like Pelfrey.  

 

This combination of stingy ownership, conservative GM and old school Gardy was a disaster.  The proof is in the standings.They talk about loyalty. How about loyalty to the fans that want a contender? 

 

Twins need to have a salary level of $115 million to compete. You get what you pay for. Twins need to sign free agents that are winners. Not just a bunch of mediocre  placeholders.  The reason the Twins won two world series is that the roster was populated by winners like Rat, Hrbek, Kirby, Gagne and Gladden, Baylor, Winfield, and Bruno. Guys that you expectred something to happen when they came up with runners on base.

 

And they had invested in top level pitching, Bert, Viola, Erickson, Morris.... Taps would be the best pitcher on the staff today..

 

Jim Pohlad better wake up. And Terry Ryan will never go out and sign a Price level SP.  He is just too much of a garage sale GM.

 

 It is as if Calvin Griffith was still running the team. 

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Opening Day Team Salary:

 

2014:  $85.8 mil

2013:  $75.8 mil

2012:  $94.1 mil

2011:  $112.7 mil

2010:  $97.6 mil

2009:  $65.3 mil

 

It's pretty rare that you see somebody defend the Twins payroll situation. 

 

Minnesota has seen increased revenue streams from television contracts and the stadium, but payroll has dropped to a level less than Target Field's first season.  Conscious decisions were made to cut payroll at the cost of winning.  How much better would this team be with Denard Span, Ben Revere, Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau, and Francisco Liriano, all moved due to financial considerations in the last here years.  This doesn't include guys they gave up on that succeeded elsewhere (Gomez, Worley).

 

The Pohlads have never made winning a priority in running this team.  An occasional push here and there yes, but again done on the cheap.

 

Will the Twins be better in 2015?  Most assuredly.  Will that be because of the managerial change?  No.  When we see Buxton, Sano, Rosario, May added to the roster, there will be an increase in talent, all at the MLB minimum.  Gardenhire has done all the heavy lifting, his successor will reap the benefits.

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OK.  I had a whole message written but it failed to post.  so, I'll summarize.  

 

I think the argument of "The Pohlads treat the Twins like a business" is fundamentally flawed.  This is the main reason:

 

MLB teams are, in fact, businesses.  Why would the owners treat them as anything other than that.

 

But, that doesn't mean that the Pohlads don't want to win.  In fact, if the argument if you are convinced that they only care about money, they should, in fact, want to ensure that they have a winning team every year.  Why, because winning teams draw more fans to the ballpark (except for possibly in Tampa).  If all they cared about was the money, they would ensure they put a team on the field that filled every seat of Target Field.  

 

 If you truly believe that the Pohlads run their business any differently than every other owner, please show me evidence of how.  Because this argument contradicts itself.  

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Forbes article describing how the 2013 Astros were the most profitable team ever:

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2013/08/26/2013-houston-astros-baseballs-worst-team-is-most-profitable-in-history/

 

Another Forbes article discussing profitability and winning:

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chrissmith/2014/03/26/the-best-and-worst-mlb-teams-for-the-money-2/

 

Many owners treat their team as a business, yes.  Those teams regularly prove winning is not a priority, the almighty dollar is.

 

Look at the flip side.  The Yankees spend outrageously every year and are in the playoffs almost every year.  Boston, LA Dodgers, LA Angels, almost always at the top.  Sure, some teams can buck the system through shrewd management, but their winning is cyclical.  Keep good talent and win until they become too expensive, then trade everybody and lose.  Spend regularly and you win regularly.

 

To own a franchise is to be in a position where money is essentially irrelevant.  When your worth is measured by billions, money is irrelevant.  These teams are expensive toys, nothing more.  Status symbols to brag about.  Why else would Donald Sterling fight so hard to keep the LA Clippers?

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The Pohlads are people, too. They have feelings and, I think, would prefer to give Minnesota a winner. They're just not very good at it. They've allowed too much old guard stick around for too long. It's like the whole organization is an extension of the Pohlad family. A change in ownership and a front office shakeup is what this organization needs. I agree. But the Pohlads aren't selling a team with a shiny new stadium the people paid for through taxes. As a business, it would not be in their best interest to take the Houston or Clippers approach because creating goodwill with the community is also important in running a financially solvent business that depends on that community. The Pohlads obviously know their business is safe for the next 30 years or so, and although success is cyclical in MLB, I think the Pohlads and Terry Ryan are attempting to recreate the success they had with a lower budget, because that success is more impressive. I would rather be a fan of an underdog team with the 24th ranked payroll that wins a World Series than a fan of the team with the 3rd ranked payroll that does the same. I'm more impressed with an organization that overachieves expectations, as you would be with a business.

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[Deleted the Prior post as I realized that I somehow forgot something in the midst of all these words]
 

Opening Day Team Salary:
 
2014:  $85.8 mil
2013:  $75.8 mil
2012:  $94.1 mil
2011:  $112.7 mil
2010:  $97.6 mil
2009:  $65.3 mil
 
It's pretty rare that you see somebody defend the Twins payroll situation. 
 
Minnesota has seen increased revenue streams from television contracts and the stadium, but payroll has dropped to a level less than Target Field's first season.


I'd caution you not to confuse (or conflate) a search for accuracy with "defend[ing] the Twins payroll situation". Your initial statement was either confusingly worded (as I and others took a different meaning) or inaccurate, and rather than offering a defense of payroll, gil4 was pointing this out.

What follows is less a defense of payroll and more an argument on arbitrary endpoints.

You clarified that you meant current spending is lower than it was when the Twins first moved into Target Field. I disagree with the idea that Season 1 was the new stadium's equilibrium point or that it should be considered the "natural level" of things. Revenues decline, even when controlling for team performance, immediately after the first season in a new stadium. Think of it as driving your new car off the lot.

I think it's substantially more informative to compare the last 5 years at the Metrodome (which involved a substantially more successful period) to the first 5 at Target Field.

Twins Metrodome Average (05-09): $62,650,707.60
Twins Target Field Average: $95,761,233 (53% increase)
Twins 2014 Target Field Payroll: $85,465,000 (36% increase)

As you can see, even this season (after a "precipitous" drop in payroll) represents a substantial increase over the way things were at the Metrodome. Many will consider this too rosy, team-friendly or apologetic towards ownership. I contend looking at the behavior before the new revenue stream is simply a more useful comparison to determine how revenue is being used.

As an aside, the trading away 3 years of one of (if not *the*) baseball's team-friendliest contracts in CF and a player 2 years away from sniffing arbitration is probably not the best argument to use when bemoaning the cheapness of a club-especially when the return was a Top 100 prospect, a former Top 100 prospect and recent Rookie of Year candidate who all contributed to strengthening a part of the system (competent young starters, and in 2 cases, power arms) that had been desolate for years.

As for the others, Cuddyer seemed to have little interest in returning. Willingham and Doumit equaled the contract he received from Colorado. Morneau had substantial questions about his ability to recover anything resembling his 2010 form, and Mauer's own concussion issues made it clear that 1B was no longer automatically Morneau's spot. I've been thrilled to watch them rediscover their offense output in the friendly confines of Coors, but "expense" doesn't appear to have been the major factor in either decision. I'd comment the same seems to be true with Liriano who-based on the Twins having to trade in-division for a meager package as well as the one-year "prove it" deal he signed after-was far from "in demand" as '12 drew to a close and '13 began.
 

The Pohlads have never made winning a priority in running this team.  An occasional push here and there yes, but again done on the cheap.


Shelling out more guaranteed money for one player (and at a higher AAV) than I believe any local club has for an entire offseason (Parise & Suter, for instance, make less money over more years). Being the highest bidder for a major international free agent (which turned out catastrophically). Setting franchise records for FA Hitter and Pitcher contracts. If the Pohlads are focused on making money at the expense of all else-they're doing an absolutely terrible job at it.

There have been a plethora of examples in recent years of teams making a concerted effort to pinch pennies at the expense of winning (given your inclusion of Span, Revere and deadline FA trades above, I'll use "winning" the way you seem to-which is regarding immediate success). Houston has torn down their roster at remarkable pace, the Red Sox had what can only be described as an epic shedding of salary 2 summers ago and the Cubs have sold off any veteran piece with something that resembles value during their rebuild.

None of these teams, though, can match the Marlins. Can you imagine the response had the Twins gone out and signed Valverde, Bay and Lackey to massive, longterm deals coinciding with the opening of Target Field and then dealt them along with Mauer before the All-Star break? And that's without mentioning the SEC investigation into whether Loria literally defrauded the city during the stadium process (as opposed to the figurative defrauding the Star Tribune Comment Crew is sure the Pohlads engaged in).

When it comes down to it-even if I found merit in your premise that the Twins don't care (or only vaguely care, in the way that I might care about character progression during a cinemax afterdark flick)-I think I'd be less troubled by the Profit-at-all-performance-costs strategy and more troubled by how terrible they are executing it.

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Major league baseball started one hundred and forty three years ago, just six years after the civil war.  In all those years, not one team has brought back a manager with no championships to his name after four consecutive losing seasons. Not once.

 

So the question isn't whether Gardenhire is a good manager (imo he is, with some frustrating flaws) or whether he should have been let off the hook due to rebuilding, or who they can get to replace him and whether they'd be better for the team, or whether a new manager can bring about improved results next year and beyond.

 

The question is... why should the Twins have made baseball history by bringing him back?  What's so different about Gardenhire and/or the state of the Twins that he should manage the Twins after four seasons that would have meant the end of the tenure of every non-championship manager in the history of the game?

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Teflon and B Richard, you both misunderstand.  Treating the team as a business does not mean they are looking to win every year.  It means they are looking to make money.  Why do you think payroll has dropped so precipitously since moving to Target Field?

 

 

Ah, do I? It seems as though heavily investing in data science and sabermetrics has saved the A's quite a bit of money. Would you rather overpay on the FA market or pick and choose market inefficiencies to exploit?

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Opening Day Team Salary:

 

2014:  $85.8 mil

2013:  $75.8 mil

2012:  $94.1 mil

2011:  $112.7 mil

2010:  $97.6 mil

2009:  $65.3 mil

 

It's pretty rare that you see somebody defend the Twins payroll situation. 

 

Minnesota has seen increased revenue streams from television contracts and the stadium, but payroll has dropped to a level less than Target Field's first season.  Conscious decisions were made to cut payroll at the cost of winning.  How much better would this team be with Denard Span, Ben Revere, Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau, and Francisco Liriano, all moved due to financial considerations in the last here years.  This doesn't include guys they gave up on that succeeded elsewhere (Gomez, Worley).

 

I don't see Liriano leaving as a financial move. He had been wildly inconsistent and more bad than good his last few years with the Twins. It wasn't money that caused Liriano, or Morneau for that matter, to be moved. Denard Span was traded for Alex Meyer. That's not a cost move, that's a move to get something the Twins were in dire need of, front of the rotation pitching. Denard Span had a very team friendly deal. he wasn't moved for salary, same goes for Revere.

 

Cuddy and Torii, those were money decisions.

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