Surprisingly, it's not the rotation that concerns me for 2015. I like Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Milone, May, Meyer, Pelfrey and a couple secondary "just in case" options available. Mostly young, talented, and potentially the deepest and best SP staff in years.

My concerns are the offense and bullpen.

Mauer being Mauer for at least 140 games, hopefully 150, is HUGE. Dozier is for real. Arcia is wild, but young, and immensely talented. Hopefully the lightbulb goes on in 2015, or at the very least, the dimmer switch gets turned way up. I like Vargas a lot. He has a nice swing, decent contact, power and OB from both sides. I think it's just a question of how soon holes get closed and adjustments get made. Suzuki could lose 50 points off his Avg, still make decent contact and have a decent OB and be a helpful bat in the bottom third of the order. Pinto could greatly assist the overall production from the C spot. Plouffe has really grown, and I don't think he's hit his ceiling yet. Of course, he is keeping the hot corner warm for Sano. Escobar and Santana have simply done everything we could have dared dream; hit, play defense, perform, and perform well without going up in a puff of smoke that so many expected.

The problem offensively is one nice veteran, power, RBI bat to consistently hit at the 4 spot behind Mauer. This is key. It allows Arcia, Vargas, and others, to hit 5 and lower to fill out and deepen the lineup. We could make a major trade. However, if we can, I'd rather find a quality FA to fill this spot/responsibility and hold down one of the corner OF spots. I'm not ready to trade prospects just yet for that "piece" we need. I'd rather wait one more year before going down that path.

The bullpen, to me, is a conundrum. We have a premium closer. We have a very solid guy in Fien who I really like, though I'm not sure he's really the 8th inning guy you want to count on. I'm high on Thielbar and like Deunsing. I think Darnell might be a really good LHer for the pen, who can get SO's BTW. And there are a couple other LH options who could help.

From the right side, we have Swarzak, down a little this season but known and reliable, along with possibles like Deduno, Pino and now Pressly. The minors offer Tonkin, Achter, Oliveros and Guerra. The real bite here is these guys all offer real ability and potential, and are all having excellent seasons. But is there ONE that makes you feel comfortable pairing them with Fien to give us that 7-8 inning duo we can count on?

On the one hand, you want to audition each of them and give them their shot. On the other hand, you really want to sign that one really good FA setup guy to help solidify things.

"The most obvious thing is that Joe Mauer has really hurt this team since moving to 1B. It's hard to overstate this enough. He accounts for 27% of the payroll and the team is trailing the league average 1B by 17 wRC+. Hopefully this will change, and he's been hot recently since returning from the DL but these numbers look back, not forward."

I think you are being immensely short-sighted when it comes to Mauer.  This year 1B has been Mauer + replacement players.  We all know that his wRC+ would be higher if Mauer had been healthy all season.

Also, it makes no difference which position produces the runs.  You might think of adding the runs that Dozier produces at 2nd base and adding them to the runs that 1B produced (+24-17=+7)  and say that the Twins are doing very well in the power department at those positions.

Well done, Andy.  Hopefully the picture would have been brighter with a full year of development for Sano and Buxton.  I do think you understated how bad the defense is.

Hey! Lonestar! I could have gone into more detail there, but had to draw the line somewhere. My overall sense is we are slightly below average, when factoring in range and consistency, but not too bad. Not elite, on most days, but not terrible.

As for Mauer... He has a wRc+ of 100, so exactly league avg, not great for a 1B but better than our alternatives. Playing through injuries might explain some of that but lots of other players play through stuff too. He's definitely better than what he's showed this season.

Also, we don't need to be above avg at every position. But we can't be below average at all the positions that are supposed to be productive either, not if we want to sniff 90 wins.

I also agree with other comments that we could see some regression next year from our middle positions. However those guys have definitely earned the right to be penciled in for 2015.

 

I think you are being immensely short-sighted when it comes to Mauer.  This year 1B has been Mauer + replacement players.  We all know that his wRC+ would be higher if Mauer had been healthy all season.

Also, it makes no difference which position produces the runs.  You might think of adding the runs that Dozier produces at 2nd base and adding them to the runs that 1B produced (+24-17=+7)  and say that the Twins are doing very well in the power department at those positions.

I am being fair and reasonable when it comes to Mauer. He has been league average, but has been 7% below the league average 1B. Given his contract, he needs to be have a wRC+ well above 107 if we are going to have a top 5 offense. This isn't to say Joe's bat and his contract will continue to be an albatross. He's a potential HOF'er. He's likely to improve on his numbers this year and next, but we can't expect a +.870 OPS next year either. It's possible, but unless Joe gets some help even a decent season from him won't matter enough. 

You are correct in stating that it doesn't matter which position produces runs, however, Dozier's production has nothing to do with Mauer or the other corner positions. Poor production from the corners and DH spot is why we haven't been above league average (in offense) since 2010 (when we had Morneau, Cuddyer, Thome, Kubel (in his prime), and Delmon's only decent season). That's plain to see, and yes, they've tried to address it, somewhat half-heartedly, through signing Willingham/Doumit and giving Parmelee and Arcia playing time. But it hasn't worked out very well, and even at the time expecting big things from all those players was far from a sure thing.

The pitching staff has been an even bigger issue and mgmt decide to spend most of its money there (and on Joe's contract). So I'm not going to second too much. I thought they should have signed Nelson Cruz or Mike Morse because those deals were so team friendly, but maybe they did and they chose to go elsewhere.  

Mauer hasn't hurt the team since moving to first base. He's having a sub-Mauer year, but that's a product of him being healthy. When you compare him to other 1B in the league his numbers aren't going to match up the way you typically thing of 1B guys. That's not Joe Mauer. Expecting him to become a power first, low average guy because he moved from out behind the plate is silly.

He's Joe Mauer. He takes walks, hits singles, shows doubles power and works the count. That's valuable. It's valuable at catcher, it's valuable at first base, it's even valuable when he's DHing.

Don't worry about where the runs come from so much as long as we're scoring them.

When Joe had to move behind the plate, the options became find a place to play Joe, or not play Joe. Playing him at first base is significantly better than not playing him, or having him be the everyday DH. Keep running him out there, he's Joe Mauer, and he's going to do Joe Mauer things (and that doesn't include hitting for power).

Don't focus on his 23 mil price tag. That is money already spent, money spent when the organization thought he would be a catcher for at least a few more years than he has been before moving out. Separate the production on the field from the contract. Once you ink someone to a deal, it becomes almost meaningless to talk about the money. Joe Mauer is a Twin, and they paid to keep him a Twin. Anything they get from him going forwad is a plus. At first base, at DH, anything he does is value added to the team.

He's not hurting the team, he's a big part of the team's success, be it as limited as it may be this season (and for the last few).

Where in AK are you? I lived in Kodiak for a couple years. Not too many Twins fans, or baseball fans in general, that I came across in AK.

Well, I guess I disagree about Mauer. He is having a sub-par year, that was my point. I don't expect him to hit 30 HRs but he needs to be around 290/370/440 in order to help the offense in any meaningful way. His contract is tough because it limits the amount of money we have available to do other deals. I'm not mad about him 'not earning his money', I don't care, it's not my money. But it does suck that Mauer will hamstring us financially for years to come.

I'll still root for him and with the concussion, he's where he needs to be, but that doesn't change facts. 

I lived in Juneau for 10 years but moved back to MN last year. Been to Kodiak once. Flew over the airport twice before that. Tough weather out there.