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Why Donovan Solano is a Better Fit than you Might Think.


CoryMoen

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As you have likely seen at this point, the Twins signed Infielder Donovan Solano to a 1 year, $2 million dollar deal. When you first look at this deal, you may have thought that Solano is a similar role to Kyle Farmer and seems to be redundant. While there may be some overlap, I think there are a few reasons where both guys still get a good amount of at bats this year, especially against lefties. 

So let's compare Solano to a few other guys that I saw many people mention as targets for the Twins, Luke Voit and Yuli Gurriel. One reason the ladder two guys were brought up was their ability to hit lefties, so let's look at that first. 

Luke Voit versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .174/.298/.271. I will concede that these stats are lower than his career .236/.329/.439 line against lefties. 

Yuli Gurriel versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .265/.298/.441. These are slightly lower than his career .282/.333/.474 line against lefties as well. 

As for the Twins most recent acquisition, here are his stats versus lefties: 

Donovan Solano had a slash line of .301/.348/.422 line versus lefties in 2022. His career line is .282/.322/.389. 

The next thing I wanted to compare these players on was their Walk%, K% and their projected WAR going forward. 

Walk %

Voit: 10.2%

Gurriel: 5.7%

Solano: 5.7%

K %

Voit: 28.5%

Gurriel: 11.2%

Solano: 18.0%

Projected WAR (using ZiPS)

Voit: 0.8 WAR

Gurriel: 1.5 WAR

Solano: 1.2 WAR

Seeing these stats, you might try to say that Gurriel would be the best choice of the three for a fit. The reason I think this is not the case can be summed up in one word: versatility

Donovan Solano can not only play 1B, but can also play 2B, 3B, and will likely get some ABs as a DH as well, against lefties specifically. Gurriel at this point in his career is a 1B with the ability to DH of course as well. Voit is a 1B/DH as well. 

Not to overlook Solano's ability to hit against righties as well. He doesn't hit righties super well, but can at least give you a good AB if needed. He has a career slash line of .276/.329/.367 against RHP.

One thing to remember is Solano is a depth piece who, similar to Kyle Farmer, will play mostly against LHP with occasional starts coming against RHP. Solano's versatility will also be helpful in case someone gets dinged up (which will happen at some point) and as a potential defensive replacement depending on who is in the game as well. Solano hits a lot of line drives, as evidence by his career .332 BABIP. 

I'd like to make this clear, I don't think Donovan Solano is an all star level player, but I think he's a solid depth piece that gives manager Rocco Baldelli another option this coming year. The Twins depth is much different than the past years, and hopefully this means they learned their lesson regarding not being too top heavy on the roster and not having as much depth. 

Let me know what you all think of the Solano signing. Who do you think this bumps off the roster? My gut reaction says Larnach, but maybe things change before opening day (perhaps a trade?). 

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That's a great breakdown! Thanks for the information!

Yes, just from a batting perspective, Gurriel would at least project as a bit better overall, assuming he comes back close to his previous career numbers after a down 2022. Can he at his age? Well, he was still pretty good in 2021, IIRC. I would have been fine adding him. But Solano had a re-birth with the bat a few years ago, offers very similar numbers, and obviously provides a great deal more versatility.

In an ideal world, everyone is healthy and playing/hitting to expectation and there is no room for Solano on this team, despite being a good, solid player. I mean, I'd rather have a 100% and productive Larnach and/or Kirilloff in his place. But how often is the roster 100% healthy at any time? So solid bat, solid glove, experienced, and versatile. And if Farmer is pressed in to extended starting time at any spot, Solano is a nice utility player where the Twins don't have to make room for a AAAA player, or rush any of the kids.

I good signing that I like the more I reflect on it.

 

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2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

That's a great breakdown! Thanks for the information!

Yes, just from a batting perspective, Gurriel would at least project as a bit better overall, assuming he comes back close to his previous career numbers after a down 2022. Can he at his age? Well, he was still pretty good in 2021, IIRC. I would have been fine adding him. But Solano had a re-birth with the bat a few years ago, offers very similar numbers, and obviously provides a great deal more versatility.

In an ideal world, everyone is healthy and playing/hitting to expectation and there is no room for Solano on this team, despite being a good, solid player. I mean, I'd rather have a 100% and productive Larnach and/or Kirilloff in his place. But how often is the roster 100% healthy at any time? So solid bat, solid glove, experienced, and versatile. And if Farmer is pressed in to extended starting time at any spot, Solano is a nice utility player where the Twins don't have to make room for a AAAA player, or rush any of the kids.

I good signing that I like the more I reflect on it.

 

Thank you!
 

Totally agree! I love more depth, and not having to rush guys, like you said, is really nice! 

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Don't need both Solano and Farmer. You cannot win with fringe players even though both are versatile. Solano seems better than Farmer and maybe will bump him off the roster. Can't see dropping Larnach. Definitely don't drop a pitcher. But let's see how Spring Training pans out with injuries or a trade (2 of ours for 1 of theirs who can help).

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Nice article!

It seems that the team is emphasizing defense this year, so Solano’s versatility and skill with the glove fits that pattern. Defensive metrics for infielders have been all over the map in recent years with the proliferation of extreme shifts, so I see why you did the comparison with offensive stats.

He’s also said to be a really fine teammate, not an irrelevant aspect.

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I like the move from a depth perspective, but must admit I am disappointed that we will have to send down somebody like Larnach that I feel needs MLB time to develop.  These things usually have a way of working out so we'll see how that goes.

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I'm still two simultaneous long-term injuries in the infield away from being glad we have both Solano and Farmer. One would have been enough, wouldn't it? If we traded Gordon for a pitching prospect (or solid bullpen guy) it would make more sense. Not that I particularly want Gordon traded, but I would understand the swap for a shorter-term (and right-handed) solution in exchange for the pitching capital.

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On 2/24/2023 at 9:39 AM, twinfan said:

Don't need both Solano and Farmer. You cannot win with fringe players even though both are versatile. Solano seems better than Farmer and maybe will bump him off the roster. Can't see dropping Larnach. Definitely don't drop a pitcher. But let's see how Spring Training pans out with injuries or a trade (2 of ours for 1 of theirs who can help).

I hate to break it you, but guys like Larnach are fringe players.  This guy has a better track record at the plate and has more defensive value/flexibility than some of the chaff we currently have on the roster.

Following these guys for years has skewed the actual value of some of them for many fans.  There’s plenty of room on this roster.  It’s largely the same group of guys that got their butts handed to them in the worst division in baseball last year.

Not saying he’ll be great.  But, at least he can probably be on the field if needed and you can count on a reasonable baseline of performance.

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The same folks pounding the table to hand the keys to LF to Nick Gordon don’t think this guy is good enough to bump someone off the roster as a bench player.

This guy is Nick Gordon’s ceiling.  At his best, he’s a much better player than Gordon.  He won a utility Silver Slugger 2 years ago and hasn’t hit below .280 in the last 5-6 years.  Gordon hits .270 with a handful of doubles for a couple months, after being awful his entire pro career, and people want a statue built - but can’t find a roster spot for Solano.

Makes no sense.  

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Larnach is more than just a fringe guy. He was a top 100 prospect for a couple years after being chosen #20 overall in the 2018 draft. His numbers might be fringe now but he's a young guy who lost a key year of development to covid and then had the last two torn up by injury. We can still expect him to develop more given his shortened seasons since 2019. Last spring he was hitting .299/.375/.515 at the end of May when he got hurt, which is a sign that he's probably going to hit better than a utility infielder.

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On 2/26/2023 at 5:50 AM, Beast said:

The same folks pounding the table to hand the keys to LF to Nick Gordon don’t think this guy is good enough to bump someone off the roster as a bench player.

This guy is Nick Gordon’s ceiling.  At his best, he’s a much better player than Gordon.  He won a utility Silver Slugger 2 years ago and hasn’t hit below .280 in the last 5-6 years.  Gordon hits .270 with a handful of doubles for a couple months, after being awful his entire pro career, and people want a statue built - but can’t find a roster spot for Solano.

Makes no sense.  

You said Nick Gordon hit .270 for a couple months. Very misleading. He hit .272 for the whole season, over 400 AB. This was pushing 30 points above league average. Not only that, in the serious baseball simulation OOTP, Gordon is rated a 70 in LF. You said he hit a handful of doubles but he had 28 in ~ 400 AB, Plus 4 triples and 9 home runs.

I like Donovan and he may be a better player than Gordon. Or not. Gordon is in clear ascension mode

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On 2/24/2023 at 9:39 AM, twinfan said:

Don't need both Solano and Farmer. You cannot win with fringe players even though both are versatile. Solano seems better than Farmer and maybe will bump him off the roster. Can't see dropping Larnach. Definitely don't drop a pitcher. But let's see how Spring Training pans out with injuries or a trade (2 of ours for 1 of theirs who can help).

Solano and Farmer are both fine players. Solano has averaged .301 over the last 4 years including a silver slugger in 2020 and Kyle Farmer had 79 RBIs last year, which would have easily lead the Twins.

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Yes - Solano and Farmer are established. We're still waiting on some of our prospects to become so. It hasn't happened yet. Farmer provides IF depth with the main asset being protection at SS. Solano is a proven .280 hitter who can man 1st base if Kirilloff isn't ready. The infield experience, depth, and flexibility looks like a smart move to me.

Too many times last year I remember scanning the batting averages and OBAs in a Twins box score, and seeing most of the players hitting around .220-230 with OBAs below .300. It is tough to win games with a lineup like that. Adding established players who are decent fielders and can actually get hits has to be a positive. The division is there for the taking if the team stays healthier than last year, but I think these players could also help get some wins in the playoffs.

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On 2/26/2023 at 4:44 AM, Beast said:

I hate to break it you, but guys like Larnach are fringe players.  This guy has a better track record at the plate and has more defensive value/flexibility than some of the chaff we currently have on the roster.

Following these guys for years has skewed the actual value of some of them for many fans.  There’s plenty of room on this roster.  It’s largely the same group of guys that got their butts handed to them in the worst division in baseball last year.

Not saying he’ll be great.  But, at least he can probably be on the field if needed and you can count on a reasonable baseline of performance.

Disagree on Larnach. We don’t know what his ceiling is given how few at bats he has. The jury is still out on him but given his power potential and decent defensive abilities he could still be a solid player with 25 HR, 90+ rbi and .275 average. We should know more about him by October.

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16 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I like Donovan and he may be a better player than Gordon. Or not. Gordon is in clear ascension mode

I hope you are right. On both accounts. It would be awesome if Solano can play some COF.

As for Gordon, it is very possible 2022 was his career year. After 2019, we all thought that Kepler was in ascension mode, but he only maintained that production for one more season, before falling back to his career baseline.

2019 was Kepler's same age season as 2022 was for Gordon, the age 26 season. Ages 26 and 27 are when the majority of MLBers put up the best seasons of their careers.

Trading Gordon in the offseason may have been selling high. I hope that's not the case.

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On 2/27/2023 at 7:50 PM, Greglw3 said:

You said Nick Gordon hit .270 for a couple months. Very misleading. He hit .272 for the whole season, over 400 AB. This was pushing 30 points above league average. Not only that, in the serious baseball simulation OOTP, Gordon is rated a 70 in LF. You said he hit a handful of doubles but he had 28 in ~ 400 AB, Plus 4 triples and 9 home runs.

I like Donovan and he may be a better player than Gordon. Or not. Gordon is in clear ascension mode

Well said. I like Solano and think signing him was smart. He has a definite role on this team and will help make us better.

Having said that, Gordon is more important to the Twins IF last year was real. I won't repeat the statistics but he had a very solid year for a MLB OF and may be in the ascendency. He would be very valuable if he stays where he is and could be a core player if he continues to improve. I think we can expect him to improve as  a defensive an OF as he gets more experience. He is one of the players that gives one hope that this team is improving and could go on a run as a truly competitive team. Gordon probably won't be a central player in that team, but he could be a complimentary piece that helps it succeed.   

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