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One Unanswered Question from Correa Contract

NebraskaTwins

Entry posted by NebraskaTwins in Correa ·

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In my first blog entry, the last thing I want to lead off with is a topic that has already been picked apart ad nauseam. The Carlos Correa offseason free agency saga has been analyzed 500 different ways. But, for me, one part of the finalized contract still makes me scratch my head and wonder if there is more to the story. 

Much has been made about the ankle and who knew what and when. The Twins have maintained that they already knew about the ankle and it did not stop them from reportedly offering Correa a 10 yr/$285M contract initially. They knew that wasn't going to be enough but weirder things have happened, right? 

Obviously, you know how it went after that. The Giants and Mets both offered much more than the Twins but both backed out after using the same doctor to examine the same MRI. That's when the Twins reentered the picture and signed Correa to the 6 yr/$200M contract with 4 team options. A full no trade clause and no player opt outs. 

To me, when you compare the initially offered 10 yr/$285 against the finalized 6 yr/$200 that is where I still have questions. If the Twins already knew about the ankle and were confident to offer the 10 yr/$285M initially, why was the final contract only 6 yr/$200M?

Initially I figured Correa lost leverage when the Giants and Mets were no longer in the picture, thus, less money and years. But Scott Boras, Correa's agent, is much savvier than that. If he put out word to the rest of the league that arguably the best SS in the majors is now available for less money and years, you would have a lot of other teams want to jump back into talks. That alone would be enough for Boras to force Minnesota to honor the initial offer of 10 yr/ $285M if they wanted to lock it up. 

Another possibility is the additional medical exams of Correa's ankle did, in fact, uncover new details about the ankle and its ability to hold up over 10 years. That is when I would've expected the traditionally risk adverse Twins to run for the hills. Instead, they doubled down and still offered Correa the richest free agency deal in franchise history (albeit at a discounted rate but its still uncharted territory for the Twins). 

A 3rd possibility is Correa was simply over all of the drama. He wanted this month long negotiation to be over and to settle into his long term home with his family and still get paid a kings ransom. At TwinsFest, he said he called Boras and told him to "just get it done with the Twins." At that point, just get it done, and quickly, became the sentiment. 

Whatever it was, the Twins had an elite SS fall into their laps two years in a row. Any chance of a rebuild has been set aside for at least another 6 years so, for that, I am thankful. I would still love to know what changed at the last minute. Bookmark this blog and come back to it in 2027 and you may have your answer. 

 

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ashbury
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If the Twins already knew about the ankle

Everyone "knew about" the ankle.  The fact he had had a plate installed long ago was well known. 

What IMO was new was information that the SF doctors found, that signs of arthritis had become evident and of a nature that could cloud the outlook 10 years down the line.  The Twins doctors a year earlier might not have looked at things with a 10-year horizon in mind, given the contract discussion was 3 years., but this time it mattered and the offer was scaled back to a more comfortable 6 years.  Had Correa agreed to the Twins' 10-year offer originally, there's no reason to think their doctors wouldn't have made the same diagnosis.  Again, IMO, but I think it fits with all available information.

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NebraskaTwins
24 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Everyone "knew about" the ankle.  The fact he had had a plate installed long ago was well known. 

What IMO was new was information that the SF doctors found, that signs of arthritis had become evident and of a nature that could cloud the outlook 10 years down the line.  The Twins doctors a year earlier might not have looked at things with a 10-year horizon in mind, given the contract discussion was 3 years., but this time it mattered and the offer was scaled back to a more comfortable 6 years.  Had Correa agreed to the Twins' 10-year offer originally, there's no reason to think their doctors wouldn't have made the same diagnosis.  Again, IMO, but I think it fits with all available information.

Could very well be the case. But the Twins didn't have to be the only team in play after the Mets bowed out. Boras could've strung this along as soon as the Twins came in $85M underneath their original offer. By doing that, its feasible to think he would've gotten at least a 7yr for $250 offer somewhere. I personally think they found something new and Correa was sick of the process and called off the dogs and simply said, get it done.  

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Brandon
4 hours ago, ashbury said:

Everyone "knew about" the ankle.  The fact he had had a plate installed long ago was well known. 

What IMO was new was information that the SF doctors found, that signs of arthritis had become evident and of a nature that could cloud the outlook 10 years down the line.  The Twins doctors a year earlier might not have looked at things with a 10-year horizon in mind, given the contract discussion was 3 years., but this time it mattered and the offer was scaled back to a more comfortable 6 years.  Had Correa agreed to the Twins' 10-year offer originally, there's no reason to think their doctors wouldn't have made the same diagnosis.  Again, IMO, but I think it fits with all available information.

I think it was leaked the Mets counter offer was 6 years guaranteed at the same rate.  I think the Twins saw an opportunity to restructure their offer to 1.  show Carlos appreciation and respect.  2 it blew the Mets offer out of the water in that there was no way the Mets would up their annual guarantee during the 6 years guarantee section to match.  There was probably a concern from the Twins that Boras would go back to the Mets if the Twins had the same 28.5 million per year value.  but 33.33 million average plus the Mets would be in the 92% bracket for payroll tax making Correa a 60 million per season player.  The Mets were not going to do that.  Thus, securing Carlos services for the future.  Plus, Carlos will likely get a post career contract to do stuff with the Twins as an all-time Twins great.  

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Karbo

I see option 3 making the most sense. He is reputed to be a family man and this gave him the certainty of raising his family in the "Minnesota Nice" atmosphere.

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Seth Stohs

" If the Twins already knew about the ankle and were confident to offer the 10 yr/$285M initially, why was the final contract only 6 yr/$200M?"

Because that's all they had to do. Presumably, they had some sort of knowledge that their offer was over $40 million more than the Mets

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IndianaTwin

1. The 10/$285M contract was "reported," but the reality is that we don't know the parameters of it. 

2. The final contract only has 6 years guaranteed, but it's pretty easy to imagine it going to can go to 10/$270M. In addition, it's very front-loaded, so depending on what discount rate you use, it's actually worth more in current dollars than a straight line 10/$285M.

3. I picked up the "just get it done" response in some of the interviews. After what he went through, it's easy to imagine that he was getting fed up. 

4. But we're still not privy to details of the conversation (as we shouldn't be), so this is all speculation on all of our parts.

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