Nice article.  Rocco may be a good manager but we will never know.  The hard core analytics has ruined baseball!!  Attendance and ratings continue to slide.  Baseball used to be fun.  It has been a big bore the past few seasons and getting worse.  Too much stationary dead play.  Too many walks and strikeouts.  Everyone swinging for the fences no matter what the count is.  Station to station baseball.  No life to our Twins team.  Very poor fundamentals.  Plus our great manager is attached to the computer.  I remember a couple of times this past season when Correa and Buxton were given the day off on the same day at home.  Rocco's response was there day off happened on the same day and he didn't know what to do about it.  Really???  Poor attendance, people coming to the park in huge part to watch Buxton and Correa.  Then find out they are both healthy but it was their scheduled day off.  The manager said he didn't know how to fix it.  I've followed Twins for 60 years and still will this summer.  But if the future of baseball is here now, it is in big trouble.

Personally, I think there are three glaring problems with Baldelli's approach: 1) The numbers are not a sufficient substitute for preparation and being ready to play--focus supercedes all other psychological constructs; 2) the numbers do not necessarily reflect what is happening on the field; for example, a pitcher is at 75 pitches and facing a hitter for the third time, but the pitcher in that particular game has a better than his usual slider on that night; everyone knows it, but the numbers don't (it slices both ways; the next time out, he is getting hard right from the start; the numbers say leave him in, but everyone knows his breaking balls aren't breaking and his fastball has almost no movement), and 3) the numbers indicate typical trends for the situation at hand, but looking at the data is no substitute for assessing the intensity of the moment and reacting to it--call it 'instinct' as one Daily member did.

Perhaps, I could sum it up in this way: Baseball cannot be reduced to a board game (even though I think I may have a version of APBA hidden somewhere among my unused treasures). Trends and data only get the manager to the 90th percentile so to speak, but it is at that point where good managing really begins IMHO.

"You don't have to like it, hell it infuriates me, but it is not changing any time soon, so why fight it? Instead, let us enjoy having Mr. Baldelli as the Twins' manager for as long as possible...."

Enjoy Baldelli and the FO. Not. Too data driven.

Just finished Joe Madden's book in which he argues that data IS critical, but it must be tempered by judgement, what's going on w/a player at that moment, how well the pitcher's ball is moving and his control at that moment, and "gut."

Gut relates to the innate use of a manager's own mental algorithms (which we all employ daily) -- a hire which you make at the office; how to interact w/your children in critical situations; how best to manage, influence, lead, work with a team at work etc. The book cites studies which support integrating "gut" (experience, relationships, context, senses).

It isn't all data.

He’s not a good manager once the game starts. He’s just not.

I'm an analyst too.  I work with numbers all day.  I love sabermetrics and baseball analytics.  But, you also need to have a feel for the game too.  Baldelli does not.  He's far too analytics driven.  Tom Kelly kept Jack Morris in Game 7 of the '91 World Series, despite everyone (even back then) saying that 10 innings for a pitcher is insane.  He was ready to pull him and Jack Morris talked him out of it. Kelly then made a gut decision. His head was in the game, not a spreadsheet.  The data can tell you that the odds are better if you make a switch, but every situation is unique and different.  

Far too many managers these days pop up off the bench and spring out of the dugout like they've been shot out of a cannon once a pitcher throws his 100th pitch.  It's annoying.  Especially when they bring a reliever in who blows the lead.

I have heard John Smoltz makes this point multiple times, when you have too many relivers in the game, you're banking on ALL of them being on their game on that particular night.  Not just one or two.  He's right.  

Nolan Ryan's philosophy was that you could take him out of the game if there was someone better to come in.  

Obviously the game has changed and pitchers don't throw 30 complete games in a season, or 10, or 300 innings, or 250; but a starting pitcher can throw 200 innings.  They don't turn into a pumpkin once they throw their 101st pitch in a game.  A pitcher can work out of a jam.  They're just not given the chance too anymore.  

I'd rather have Sony Gray work out of his own jam than Emilo Pagan,  

18 hours ago, Lagputter said:

I have been writing this same "Blog" on the "Fire Rocco" posts for 2 years.  Like is style or not (and I probably lean towards "not"), he's going to be here as long as Falvine is in charge, because he is managing EXACTLY the way they want him to manage.  The questions about his flexibility are valid, but I don't think it's all HIS flexibility.  He has been told by the FO how to manage games, and who to put in in certain situations.  He had no choice but to put Colome/Pagan into games, because that is who the FO gave him, and gave him marching orders to use them in those situations.  I think if the FO would loosen the reigns (which I don't expect them to do) you might see a different Rocco.

If this is true, then why bother having a manager?  You hire a manager that you have confidence in to be with the players on a daily basis.  That is not the FO's job.  The manager gets a feel for his players, and a good solid baseball instinct for his group of players.  It is his job to get the most out of his players and make them competitive on a daily basis.  The FO's job is to give him the best available players(that they can afford).  If Rocco is just a puppet for the FO, then the whole system is screwed up.  Whether he manages by analytics or by baseball knowlege and feel is his choice and he should be held accountable.  Once the players are on the team and on the field, the FO needs to keep their noses out of it.  Let the manager live or die by his own decisions.  If any real baseball man can live by the managerial puppet scenario, then he is not a manager.  A real baseball man would not take that job.  Now, I don't personally "know" that Rocco is a puppet,  but if he is, I don't see how his players would have any respect for that.  As for Francona,  I happen to believe he may be the best manager in baseball at this time.  Does anyone think that he would play puppet for any FO?

6 hours ago, bap3141 said:

 ...I'd rather have Sony Gray work out of his own jam than Emilo Pagan, " 

Amen. 

Create the mess? Just like when we were kids. You spilled the cereal. Learn to clean it up. On the right occasions, work out of jam.  That is where managerial decisions are made. Does he have it today? That is not statistically based.

Next time he won't nibbled so much, won't throw so many sliders, won't come inside with him, and on and on.

I understand analytics has some benefit but how do you change the numbers such as not getting through the order 3 times for a pitcher if you never let them.

Also does analytics say just sit back and wait for the 3 run HR and not to steal or hit and run? Rocco is VERY conservative with his managing and quite boring to watch if you ask me. He is an Ok manager not great for sure.

2 hours ago, Heiny said:

If this is true, then why bother having a manager?  You hire a manager that you have confidence in to be with the players on a daily basis.  That is not the FO's job.  The manager gets a feel for his players, and a good solid baseball instinct for his group of players.  It is his job to get the most out of his players and make them competitive on a daily basis.  The FO's job is to give him the best available players(that they can afford).  If Rocco is just a puppet for the FO, then the whole system is screwed up.  Whether he manages by analytics or by baseball knowlege and feel is his choice and he should be held accountable.  Once the players are on the team and on the field, the FO needs to keep their noses out of it.  Let the manager live or die by his own decisions.  If any real baseball man can live by the managerial puppet scenario, then he is not a manager.  A real baseball man would not take that job.  Now, I don't personally "know" that Rocco is a puppet,  but if he is, I don't see how his players would have any respect for that.  As for Francona,  I happen to believe he may be the best manager in baseball at this time.  Does anyone think that he would play puppet for any FO?

I don't disagree with you.  It's just the way it is.  Not only with the Twins but MOST MLB teams.  It's all about the Analytics now whether we like it or not.

21 minutes ago, Lagputter said:

It's all about the Analytics now whether we like it or not.

What does Houston and Dusty Baker say on this?

29 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

What does Houston and Dusty Baker say on this?

"Check out my ring losers!" - Dusty Baker

In all seriousness, the Twins could definitely learn a thing or two from championship level teams like that. While a heavy percentage of decisions are made based on analytics, it does appear that when a mix of numbers and great human intuition/baseball IQ come together, awesome things can happen. The current FO, for better or worse, want to lean much more heavily to the numbers side. That is why I think a player friendly cup of vanilla pudding manager like Rocco is about as good as you can do with that type of mind set. Not saying the mindset is correct, but when you lean that heavily towards data, I don't think managers impact the game as much.  That being said, if the Twins don't make a late post season push (ALCS or further), it might be time to look in a new direction for GM and manager, creating a new situation in which we could bring in a manager with more freedom on decision making. Hopefully the brain trust proves all of us wrong and we all watch the twins show off some bling of their own soon!

13 hours ago, davidborton said:

"You don't have to like it, hell it infuriates me, but it is not changing any time soon, so why fight it? Instead, let us enjoy having Mr. Baldelli as the Twins' manager for as long as possible...."

Enjoy Baldelli and the FO. Not. Too data driven.

Just finished Joe Madden's book in which he argues that data IS critical, but it must be tempered by judgement, what's going on w/a player at that moment, how well the pitcher's ball is moving and his control at that moment, and "gut."

Gut relates to the innate use of a manager's own mental algorithms (which we all employ daily) -- a hire which you make at the office; how to interact w/your children in critical situations; how best to manage, influence, lead, work with a team at work etc. The book cites studies which support integrating "gut" (experience, relationships, context, senses).

It isn't all data.

I agree completely. I think baseball is at its best when it uses analytics as a tool, not an absolute defining measure. I think my point got lost a bit, and re reading the article I can understand why, as I don't think I emphasized it enough. I like Rocco for what our options under the the current FO would be. All the on field decisions were going to be the same no matter who they hired. A manager who wanted freedom to do what THEY want on the field would have turned down any hypothetical offer the current regime would have made them. This includes some of the top tier managers mentioned on this thread already (Francona, Baker, etc). I don't like it, but it is just my feeling that numbers rule baseball (and at least the Twins) at the moment, an in that dreary landscape, I take what I can get, and that is a manager that the players like and doesn't get in the way. Plus he has a cool name.

17 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice article.  Rocco may be a good manager but we will never know.  The hard core analytics has ruined baseball!!  Attendance and ratings continue to slide.  Baseball used to be fun.  It has been a big bore the past few seasons and getting worse.  Too much stationary dead play.  Too many walks and strikeouts.  Everyone swinging for the fences no matter what the count is.  Station to station baseball.  No life to our Twins team.  Very poor fundamentals.  Plus our great manager is attached to the computer.  I remember a couple of times this past season when Correa and Buxton were given the day off on the same day at home.  Rocco's response was there day off happened on the same day and he didn't know what to do about it.  Really???  Poor attendance, people coming to the park in huge part to watch Buxton and Correa.  Then find out they are both healthy but it was their scheduled day off.  The manager said he didn't know how to fix it.  I've followed Twins for 60 years and still will this summer.  But if the future of baseball is here now, it is in big trouble.

Yeah I feel that. I live in Iowa, but I managed to drive up a few weekends and catch some games. I think I went to 4, never saw Buxton, saw Correa once. I feel it wouldn't be that difficult to see a weekend home series coming up and maybe give those guys their day off on Thursday or Monday lol

9 hours ago, bap3141 said:

I'm an analyst too.  I work with numbers all day.  I love sabermetrics and baseball analytics.  But, you also need to have a feel for the game too.  Baldelli does not.  He's far too analytics driven.  Tom Kelly kept Jack Morris in Game 7 of the '91 World Series, despite everyone (even back then) saying that 10 innings for a pitcher is insane.  He was ready to pull him and Jack Morris talked him out of it. Kelly then made a gut decision. His head was in the game, not a spreadsheet.  The data can tell you that the odds are better if you make a switch, but every situation is unique and different.  

Far too many managers these days pop up off the bench and spring out of the dugout like they've been shot out of a cannon once a pitcher throws his 100th pitch.  It's annoying.  Especially when they bring a reliever in who blows the lead.

I have heard John Smoltz makes this point multiple times, when you have too many relivers in the game, you're banking on ALL of them being on their game on that particular night.  Not just one or two.  He's right.  

Nolan Ryan's philosophy was that you could take him out of the game if there was someone better to come in.  

Obviously the game has changed and pitchers don't throw 30 complete games in a season, or 10, or 300 innings, or 250; but a starting pitcher can throw 200 innings.  They don't turn into a pumpkin once they throw their 101st pitch in a game.  A pitcher can work out of a jam.  They're just not given the chance too anymore.  

I'd rather have Sony Gray work out of his own jam than Emilo Pagan,  

I think people tend to be full of crap on this one. I see this kind of statement all the time from the "Fire Rocco" crowd about how they want the starter to try and work out of a jam, but they'll bury the manager just as fast when the starter gives up the back-breaking hit that busts the game wide open too. Then it'll be all about how "the manager should have seen that he was gassed" or "anyone with a brain should have known that the starter just didn't have it".

Look, I'd rather have pretty much any pitcher work out of a jam than Pagan right now, but that's because I don't think Pagan is a very good pitcher.

I think the article is a bit mean-spirited in how it treats Rocco, with the suggestion that he's literally just a puppet and Falvey/Levine are really making all the tactical decisions in advance for Rocco to select one off the iPad or something. And I pretty much discount any opinion that starts snottily bringing up Rocco & spreadsheets and treating the man like he's some kind of numbers obsessive who spends all his time pouring over numbers to the exclusion of everything else (the dude was basically the ultimate jock until becoming a manager apparently turned him into a geek to some people). But it's not wrong in that Rocco's overall strategic decision-making patterns are in line with what the front office wants. This is also how pretty much every front office operates now, where the front office hires managers that are in basic agreement with how the front office wants things to go.

This has ebbed and flowed over the years in baseball. There have been teams and even eras where the manager set the tone and has the most influence on the baseball side of the house and the front office was responsible for getting players that did what the manager wanted, etc. this is also not the first era where the front office called the shots and the manager was responsible for executing the plan the front office set. 

It's pretty unusual for the manager and front office to be out of synch and the team to have any success, I'd say.

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think people tend to be full of crap on this one. I see this kind of statement all the time from the "Fire Rocco" crowd about how they want the starter to try and work out of a jam, but they'll bury the manager just as fast when the starter gives up the back-breaking hit that busts the game wide open too. Then it'll be all about how "the manager should have seen that he was gassed" or "anyone with a brain should have known that the starter just didn't have it".

Look, I'd rather have pretty much any pitcher work out of a jam than Pagan right now, but that's because I don't think Pagan is a very good pitcher.

I think the article is a bit mean-spirited in how it treats Rocco, with the suggestion that he's literally just a puppet and Falvey/Levine are really making all the tactical decisions in advance for Rocco to select one off the iPad or something. And I pretty much discount any opinion that starts snottily bringing up Rocco & spreadsheets and treating the man like he's some kind of numbers obsessive who spends all his time pouring over numbers to the exclusion of everything else (the dude was basically the ultimate jock until becoming a manager apparently turned him into a geek to some people). But it's not wrong in that Rocco's overall strategic decision-making patterns are in line with what the front office wants. This is also how pretty much every front office operates now, where the front office hires managers that are in basic agreement with how the front office wants things to go.

This has ebbed and flowed over the years in baseball. There have been teams and even eras where the manager set the tone and has the most influence on the baseball side of the house and the front office was responsible for getting players that did what the manager wanted, etc. this is also not the first era where the front office called the shots and the manager was responsible for executing the plan the front office set. 

It's pretty unusual for the manager and front office to be out of synch and the team to have any success, I'd say.

Great take. The puppet analogy may be a bit aggressive, I will admit. Call it hyperbole to make a point that the on field decisions are a group effort and don't all fall on Rocco. The bit about him being the ultimate jock before becoming a manager is great, and one of the reasons I like him because I think it helps him vibe with the players really really well. I knew I was in the minority when I wrote this piece, but I do really like Rocco, call me crazy (and most have lol).

12 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think people tend to be full of crap on this one. I see this kind of statement all the time from the "Fire Rocco" crowd about how they want the starter to try and work out of a jam, but they'll bury the manager just as fast when the starter gives up the back-breaking hit that busts the game wide open too. Then it'll be all about how "the manager should have seen that he was gassed" or "anyone with a brain should have known that the starter just didn't have it".

Look, I'd rather have pretty much any pitcher work out of a jam than Pagan right now, but that's because I don't think Pagan is a very good pitcher.

Quote

I think the article is a bit mean-spirited in how it treats Rocco, with the suggestion that he's literally just a puppet and Falvey/Levine are really making all the tactical decisions in advance for Rocco to select one off the iPad or something.

And I pretty much discount any opinion that starts snottily bringing up Rocco & spreadsheets and treating the man like he's some kind of numbers obsessive who spends all his time pouring over numbers to the exclusion of everything else (the dude was basically the ultimate jock until becoming a manager apparently turned him into a geek to some people). But it's not wrong in that Rocco's overall strategic decision-making patterns are in line with what the front office wants. This is also how pretty much every front office operates now, where the front office hires managers that are in basic agreement with how the front office wants things to go.

This has ebbed and flowed over the years in baseball. There have been teams and even eras where the manager set the tone and has the most influence on the baseball side of the house and the front office was responsible for getting players that did what the manager wanted, etc. this is also not the first era where the front office called the shots and the manager was responsible for executing the plan the front office set. 

It's pretty unusual for the manager and front office to be out of synch and the team to have any success, I'd say.

Also I'm like 99% sure this comment is from the actual Rocco Baldelli.

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I think people tend to be full of crap on this one. I see this kind of statement all the time from the "Fire Rocco" crowd about how they want the starter to try and work out of a jam, but they'll bury the manager just as fast when the starter gives up the back-breaking hit that busts the game wide open too. Then it'll be all about how "the manager should have seen that he was gassed" or "anyone with a brain should have known that the starter just didn't have it".

Look, I'd rather have pretty much any pitcher work out of a jam than Pagan right now, but that's because I don't think Pagan is a very good pitcher.

I think the article is a bit mean-spirited in how it treats Rocco, with the suggestion that he's literally just a puppet and Falvey/Levine are really making all the tactical decisions in advance for Rocco to select one off the iPad or something. And I pretty much discount any opinion that starts snottily bringing up Rocco & spreadsheets and treating the man like he's some kind of numbers obsessive who spends all his time pouring over numbers to the exclusion of everything else (the dude was basically the ultimate jock until becoming a manager apparently turned him into a geek to some people). But it's not wrong in that Rocco's overall strategic decision-making patterns are in line with what the front office wants. This is also how pretty much every front office operates now, where the front office hires managers that are in basic agreement with how the front office wants things to go.

This has ebbed and flowed over the years in baseball. There have been teams and even eras where the manager set the tone and has the most influence on the baseball side of the house and the front office was responsible for getting players that did what the manager wanted, etc. this is also not the first era where the front office called the shots and the manager was responsible for executing the plan the front office set. 

It's pretty unusual for the manager and front office to be out of synch and the team to have any success, I'd say.

Wrong!  I never throw the manager under the bus for allowing starters to stay in.  Like I said, a starter can go 200 innings or throw more than 100 pitches in a game.

Also, way to competely dismiss my point on managers having a "feel" for the game.

6 hours ago, davidborton said:

Amen. 

Create the mess? Just like when we were kids. You spilled the cereal. Learn to clean it up. On the right occasions, work out of jam.  That is where managerial decisions are made. Does he have it today? That is not statistically based.

Next time he won't nibbled so much, won't throw so many sliders, won't come inside with him, and on and on.

Bingo. I want pitchers to be allowed to work out of jams. Obviously if they don't have "it" that day, the manager needs to make that call.

However, the scenario where the Rays manager, Kevin Cash pulled his starter Blake Snell in the 2020 World Series for no good reason wheh he was dominating the Dodgers lineup and lost the game and the series to the Dodgers is a perfect example of the stupidity of these analytics-only managers in today's game.

I like Rocco personally and like how he interacts with his players and staff.  I do think that he goes 100% analytics and 0% gut feel but I also believe that is the FO's method and he is told not to deviate from it.  So this I do not blame on Rocco.

My ONLY complaint is that he and his staff are NOT teaching fundamentals and obviously not practicing them in ST.  Everybody on this team MUST learn how to bunt, throw to the correct cutoff, and hit behind the runners.  They also need practice in reading whether or not to advance to the next base.

I love the Twins but puke when I watch these mistakes which previous managers (i.e. Kelly and Gardy) always corrected and NEVER tolerated.

20 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I like Rocco personally and like how he interacts with his players and staff.  I do think that he goes 100% analytics and 0% gut feel but I also believe that is the FO's method and he is told not to deviate from it.  So this I do not blame on Rocco.

My ONLY complaint is that he and his staff are NOT teaching fundamentals and obviously not practicing them in ST.  Everybody on this team MUST learn how to bunt, throw to the correct cutoff, and hit behind the runners.  They also need practice in reading whether or not to advance to the next base.

I love the Twins but puke when I watch these mistakes which previous managers (i.e. Kelly and Gardy) always corrected and NEVER tolerated.

Well said. For me it's the baserunning. YUCK

I enjoyed this piece.  My hope for this Falvey Rocco regime regarding analytics  was some innovation and implementation of new or different analytics, rather than chasing something Tampa figured out a few years ago. And I don't know what I don't know of course so they probably are.  Less Bundy and Archer will help in the long run as far as 3rd time through the order so let's see how 2023 shakes out.  

3 hours ago, lukeduke1980 said:

I enjoyed this piece.  My hope for this Falvey Rocco regime regarding analytics  was some innovation and implementation of new or different analytics, rather than chasing something Tampa figured out a few years ago. And I don't know what I don't know of course so they probably are.  Less Bundy and Archer will help in the long run as far as 3rd time through the order so let's see how 2023 shakes out.  

Glad you liked it. Yeah the rotation as it stands now (maybe not in the coming weeks) is probably Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, and Ober. As long as the offense stays healthy I think that’s playoff rotation. Not a championship one though. Don’t think we need a true ace like some folks do, but a trade for a Sonny Gray caliber starter might be enough. The question is do we have the ammo to get a trade like that done? Would probably have to deal Arraez sadly… his stock might be at an all time high after the batting title. Excited for 2023 and am not ready to give up on the FO yet. Ask me again at the end of the season though 😂 

A lot of food for thought here.  I can't really argue against your main point.  Baseball has changed for the worst--imho, and Rocco's the perfect foil for the diamond quants who are running this team.  But human nature doesn't change, and I think young men still need a strong leader to lead them to victory.  Rocco's the weakest manager I've ever seen in my 57 years as a baseball fan.

Never forget that advanced analytics is an excellent method of predicting the past.  Now you kids get the hell off my lawn.

5 hours ago, Fat Calvin said:

A lot of food for thought here.  I can't really argue against your main point.  Baseball has changed for the worst--imho, and Rocco's the perfect foil for the diamond quants who are running this team.  But human nature doesn't change, and I think young men still need a strong leader to lead them to victory.  Rocco's the weakest manager I've ever seen in my 57 years as a baseball fan.

 

I don't mind the analytics, I just wish it was seen as a tool to be used as a guideline and not an absolute. I also agree that young men need a strong leader, this appears to be where our opinions differ as I think Rocco is an excellent player's manager. That being said, you have been a Twins fan longer than I have been alive so maybe I should defer to you. For context the first full year I really started following the Twins was 2006.