Since no one has any idea what’s going to happen for the rest of the offseason (Emilio Pagán traded to the Mets and then extended for four years 36M?) I thought it would be fun to try out some player comps for 2023. I’m going to go through 30 players who are on the team and figure to, if not make the team in spring, at least figure into their plans in the first half. We’ll start with their closest age player comp from Baseball-Reference for their 2022 season just to put some sort of foundation to the comparison, then move into their worst case and best case scenario for the upcoming season. These are based on nothing except the general vibe I get from following the player’s career. The B-R comps are not available for players without enough plate appearances or innings pitched (somewhere between how much Bailey Ober pitched and how much Trevor Larnach hit).

Luis Arraez

Baseball-Reference closest sim score through age 25: Fred Tenney

If we adjust this to include players who did not play in the 1800’s, we get Jo-Jo Moore, leadoff hitter for the 1933 World Series champion Giants. I had to look that up; he means nothing to me, but his inclusion underscores the old-school charm Arraez possesses. In fact, of Arraez's ten most similar batters through age 25, only Tony Gwynn played later than 1970.

Worst case: Early career Howie Kendrick

Presumed to be a perennial batting champ early on with the Angels, Kendrick hit okay, but didn’t play close to a full season until his fifth year in the league due to injury. He never lived up to his early prospect hype until his age 35 season, when he hit .340 and gave the Nationals a full 30% boost in championship WPA.

Best case: Late career Tony Gwynn

This version of Gwynn couldn’t do much except hit at an elite rate. From age 35 until he retired at age 41, Gwynn hit .352 with passable to bad defense. As defense erodes, many players lose bat speed as well and starting guessing on pitches, leading to sharp declines in production. Not so for Gwynn, who got a little chubby and realized his value could only come from his bat. Perhaps as a thirty year old DH, Arraez's legs will stay strong and he'll see a similar spike in production to Gwynn.

Jorge Polanco

Age 28: Ian Desmond

This one is rough, and hopefully not a harbinger or any sort. Desmond had a good start to his career with the Nationals but the moment he lost one step he became a liability at shortstop and was never an elite hitter. He could still crush a mistake, but faded into obscurity with the Rockies as an outfielder and was out of the game at age 33.

Worst case: Marcus Giles

Giles was a do-it-all second baseman for the Braves at the tail end of their glory years in the mid-2000’s. He provided a spark in the lineup, hit for power and contact, fielded well and had good speed. Injuries piled up though, and he was out of the game at age 29. Life comes at you fast in the middle infield sometimes.

Best case: Marcus Semien

Semien provides power, speed and a good eye at the plate. He handles second base well and cashed in with a 175M contract with the Rangers. His “terrible” year in 2022 resulted in 5.9 bWAR. We’ve seen Polanco have a couple of years where he approached five WAR, but Semien is one of the more durable players in the league- Polanco seems to be trending the other way.

Kyle Farmer

Age 31: Brendan Harris

Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett begot Harris and good friend Delmon Young. Harris could kind of hit, but not well enough to leave any impression on Twins fans.

Worst case: End of career Clint Barmes. 

In his prime, Barmes could pick it at short and hit 18 home runs. Towards the end he was an average defender with a sub .300 OBP and barely a trickle of power Even if Farmer only starts for half the season, the Twins and their fans will need a better effort than that.

Best case: Didi Gregorius

In his prime, Gregorius had 25 homer power and decent enough defense at short. He never controlled the strike zone very well but he was a solid player until injuries caught up with him. If Farmer approached numbers anywhere close to that, the Twins might have a good problem on their hands when Royce Lewis and /or Brooks Lee arrive.

Royce Lewis

(I really wish he had played enough to get a comp)

Worst case: Eduardo Núñez

Núñez was a fun player who may have been negatively impacted by his status as the one of the possible heirs-apparent to Derek Jeter. He never hit in the minors, never projected as a good shortstop and didn’t find his footing until he joined the Twins in 2014. From there, he provided a little speed, a little utility, some power and a flair that made him a fan favorite in Minnesota and in Boston, where he won a championship in 2018, even providing a big three-run home run in the seventh inning of game one.

Best case: Alfonso Soriano with better defense

Soriano didn’t have quite the hype that Lewis has had, but he was involved with a strange legal dispute after his first professional experience with the Hiroshima Carp. He tried to get released but the Carp wouldn’t let him, and after some drawn out legal action and Bud Selig getting involved, his dispute resulted in the inception of the  “posting system” which saw Daisuke Matzuzaka and Yu Darvish have 50M+ transfer fees attached to their negotiations. Like Lewis, the circumstances were weird at the start, but Soriano ended up with 412 home runs and 289 steals for his career, even posting a 46 home run, 41 steal season in 2006. That would be amazing from Lewis, but Royce still theoretically has the chance to stay at shortstop and be effective there, with third base and the outfield as fallback options in which Soriano himself provided negative value, having moved off of shortstop before reaching the majors. The variance is high with this one.