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As I occasionally do, I checked MLB statistics today. I wanted to see how the team stacked up to the rest of Major League Baseball. Most teams have played about 10 games, so we have an idea of trends, although some things are out of whack. Baltimore has good pitching? Cleveland has the top team BA in the American League? Nah, those things won't last. What about the Twins? Well, with a 4-6 record and and -6 run differential, I figured the Twins would profile poorly on offense and middle of the road on the run prevention side, Here's what I found.

Pitching. Far from a disaster, but not league average. The Twins are 20th (of 30) in team ERA and 15th in runs per game. That difference is explained by only allowing three unearned runs despite 8 errors in 10 games. They haven't played any extra inning games and unearned runs really happen there due to the "ghost runner". Other stats--23rd in walks per nine innings, 21st in strikeouts per nine innings, 15th in Opponents Batting Average and 20th in WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched). The starting staff has been better than expected, but the bullpen ERA is over 4.50. This looks like pretty good luck to this point--they're allowing more balls than average to be put in play, walking more than league average and still at the median for allowing base runners and runs.

Hitting. The only stat where the Twins are significantly better than league average is home runs. They are sixth in the league in homers per plate appearance. Other key stats--third in strikeouts per plate appearance, 25th in team OPS, 22nd in runs per game. Hitters are more predictable and projectable that pitchers. The Twins have been projected to be a good offensive team, probably enough to make up for their pitching deficiencies and hang around .500, so far that isn't the case. 

To summarize, it is early. The offense has been a major disappointment, but will improve. Pitching has been better than expected, but there are some number that predict a downturn. After playing three straight 90-win teams (from 2021), the Twins will face a less daunting schedule in the upcoming weeks. Hopefully, the record and stats improve over that time.

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I think the correlation of stats that stands out is # HRs/ # SO / lack of offense. There's no doubt that the Twins are on top in HRs because this is what this team focuses on. But unfortunely this results in more SOs and less hits in crucial times. Twins needs to get back to basics and teach basic hitting,. Yes, that means less moonblasts but will produce less SOs and more hits that produce more runs

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Like doctor gast said basic hitting  is needed ,,  

Where do we stack up with doubles  ,,, consecutive doubles scores a run and leaves a runner in scoring position  for a batter to hit a single and have a rbi .... 

 

Scoring runs matters as much as winning games ,, we need base runners  to score a 100 runs or more ,,, 

We also need more clutch hitting in the homers with men on base  ,,, they can be a game changer , if the player has the mentality for pressure situations 

Solo homers are not game changers  ....

Batting Averages , runs scored and RBI's still matter to me .... also small ball mixed in with today's metrics  ...

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1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think the correlation of stats that stands out is # HRs/ # SO / lack of offense. There's no doubt that the Twins are on top in HRs because this is what this team focuses on. But unfortunely this results in more SOs and less hits in crucial times. Twins needs to get back to basics and teach basic hitting,. Yes, that means less moonblasts but will produce less SOs and more hits that produce more runs

That is the correct prescription for what ails the Twins Doc.

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1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Like doctor gast said basic hitting  is needed ,,  

Where do we stack up with doubles  ,,, consecutive doubles scores a run and leaves a runner in scoring position  for a batter to hit a single and have a rbi .... 

 

Scoring runs matters as much as winning games ,, we need base runners  to score a 100 runs or more ,,, 

We also need more clutch hitting in the homers with men on base  ,,, they can be a game changer , if the player has the mentality for pressure situations 

Solo homers are not game changers  ....

Batting Averages , runs scored and RBI's still matter to me .... also small ball mixed in with today's metrics  ...

Agreed.

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I'm pretty confident that the offense will eventually pick up.  I am worried about the defense though.  Some of that can be blamed on the weather, but not all of them.  Even if the pitching continues at its current pace, that sloppiness will render it moot.  Especially so if the bats don't pick up.  

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I love this stat comparison. I hope you make it a series.

8 errors in 10 games? I guess when you don't/can't count the Garlick boner in right field that led to a homer, the pretty easy grounder that rolled untouched (to me even worse that he didn't even deflect it and touch it with his glove) under Correa's glove in the shift while he was basically a second baseman, and others that I didn't note but remember there were more examples........ and Sano adventures at first base........ argh. This team is has way more errors and poor defense that the 8 they are given. 

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I pretty much agree that the defense hasn’t been good. Errors are a less than good barometer for defensive ability and efficiency. I’ve long said Arraez graded out well at third, but he’s been a train wreck so far (SSS) this year. In the Boston series , Correa didn’t get to some balls that looked playable and Sanó made a pretty glaring misplay. 
That said, I’ve seen enough to believe Correa is a first-rate defender at short, Urshela is better-than-average at third and Polanco is a good second baseman. I think they’ll be a good defensive team if their best defenders stay on the field. 

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I have said this before, both last year and this year, only one number matters in the end - number of runs scored in the game.  Yeah, I know how corny and simplistic that sounds, but they have done stats on teams records when they score 3 runs or less in a game and when they score 4 or more, and it is a pretty accurate assessment of how a team will fare.  Last year we scored 3 or less slightly over 35% of our games and we won 73, and that was a team that was 2nd in the league in home runs.  So far this year (counting Monday night) we have scored 3 or less 7 times and 4 or more 4 times.  Not a coincidence our record is 4-7.  Slugging will only get you so far, unless you hit 307 home runs again; there has to be a consistent hitting approach that will manufacture runs.  Bunting for hits, sacrificing runners, taking the extra base, making contact instead of the almighty launch angle looking for a home run.  The analytics numbers are nothing more than moral victories for teams (and players individually) that don't score enough runs to win enough games.  In school they teach all the new discoveries and methods to students, but they teach history as well, because there are lessons to learn from the past too. Old school baseball still has a lot to teach the smartest kids on the block.  Just one man's extremely humble opinion.  

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On 4/20/2022 at 12:40 AM, Mark G said:

I have said this before, both last year and this year, only one number matters in the end - number of runs scored in the game.  Yeah, I know how corny and simplistic that sounds, but they have done stats on teams records when they score 3 runs or less in a game and when they score 4 or more, and it is a pretty accurate assessment of how a team will fare.  Last year we scored 3 or less slightly over 35% of our games and we won 73, and that was a team that was 2nd in the league in home runs.  So far this year (counting Monday night) we have scored 3 or less 7 times and 4 or more 4 times.  Not a coincidence our record is 4-7.  Slugging will only get you so far, unless you hit 307 home runs again; there has to be a consistent hitting approach that will manufacture runs.  Bunting for hits, sacrificing runners, taking the extra base, making contact instead of the almighty launch angle looking for a home run.  The analytics numbers are nothing more than moral victories for teams (and players individually) that don't score enough runs to win enough games.  In school they teach all the new discoveries and methods to students, but they teach history as well, because there are lessons to learn from the past too. Old school baseball still has a lot to teach the smartest kids on the block.  Just one man's extremely humble opinion.  

runs allowed doesn't matter?

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As far as baseball times goes, there is usually about 5 weeks from the first spring training games to the start of the regular season. Right now we are about 5 weeks since the start of spring training this year. Add a couple of weeks to that for work outs prior to the first game of spring not counting guys who report early or are recovering from injuries, and players still haven't reached a normal time frame for the start of the regular season.

Game timing whether pitching, hitting or defense is still off, although the starting pitching does look the best aspect of what we have seen so far, Hopefully the starters will look this good when the hitters start to show up. Although they count, I'd look at stats starting from May 1 forward.

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