Andrew, love your article! Love your common sense backed up with unbias data. I encourage you to write as often as you can because you're a pleasure to read and to disarm any false ideas out there. 

This is a fair contract (the # of years could be tricky), no more fooling around. Get it done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BTW, what has been offered?

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Andrew, love your article! Love your common sense backed up with unbias data. I encourage you to write as often as you can because you're a pleasure to read and to disarm any false ideas out there. 

This is a fair contract (the # of years could be tricky), no more fooling around. Get it done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BTW, what has been offered?

To answer my own ?. It looks like they offered him 70M for  base pay. This I've heard he has no problem with, it's the incentives where there's a problem. To me Buck isn't asking too much.

44 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Andrew, love your article! Love your common sense backed up with unbias data. I encourage you to write as often as you can because you're a pleasure to read and to disarm any false ideas out there. 

This is a fair contract (the # of years could be tricky), no more fooling around. Get it done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BTW, what has been offered?

Thank you I really appreciate that! We need to lock Buxton up for the long-term I agree.

Thanks for this, was a pleasure to read. 7/133 actually seems more than fair to Buxton. I wouldn't make him the highest paid player in baseball. He's not Mike Trout, because Trout has actually proven he can stay healthy and win MVP's. 

7/133 would be a huge gamble for the Twins. If Buxton wants more than that I'd honestly try and trade him this offseason. 

I haven't figured out the best spot to bat Buxton in the order. Of course, it would help if there were better batters to put around him.

Too often people equate speed with stealing bases, but a lot of it is taking that extra base and testing a fielder, or coming home on a sacrifice.

You have to figure the Buxton camp almost wants to see the arbitration process. He will, undoubtedly, go forward towards the $10 million mark. What the Twins offer for their end will go along ways towards Byron playing ball with the Twins.

His next alternative is to take a qualifying offer at the end of 2022. Buxton's best bet would be to be a trade piece during the season, which means a team will pay "how much" for half a season of play.

Buxton and his agent know full well that if Byron has a good, solid 2022 season, he can easily get $100 million for 4 years. If he excels, maybe even push that envelope more. Four years pushes him into an arena of another contract, as a corner outfielder. Would that multi-year contract exceed, say, $33 million for three more seasons?

The Twins best bet would be incentive LOOOOOONG-TERM contract, like the 7/$133 fielded above with play incentives on top of that. There was no reason for Byron to take the Twins 2021 mid-season offer of many many years and around $80 million or so with LOTS of incentives.

He is playing purely for 2023 at this point, with hopes that he stays healthy all season and has production going on around him.

We all ask "how much is enough" and so many of us, in a similar situation, would not want to be taken advantage of. Yet a team CAN only focus so much of their salary on a single player and, sadly, with Buxton there are questionable futures attached. 

It is sad that in baseball there is no crying, but it all comes down to money in so many players and how they see their love of the sport. 

The tough thing is that you don’t know how many games he’s going to play. He’s only had one (1) season where he’s played 100+ games.

You know how good he is going to be when healthy: One of the best players in baseball. In 2021, he put up 4.2 WAR in 61 games. Over a 162 game season, that’s a ridiculous 11.1 WAR. (That tells me that his 2021 success wouldn’t be sustainable over a full season) That being said, he’s going to be a Mike Trout-type player when healthy.

If you extend him, you should make the base 60 games/year, which would be about $25M/year. So, I would do 4 years/$100M with incentives galore. 

Where was it that there was an article stating that the actual correct number for WAR was just over $4 million? Fangraphs?

Buxton would be wise to sign for 7/$140 million. If the Twins can get a 7/$80 million base, they should absolutely go really high with incentives.

I think you may be a little high on your base. Front loaded 7/125 would be a reasonable offer. I don't like incentives based on games played but rather things like HR, RBI, H, OA, OBPA, etc. Games played can be manipulated by management and I've seen times that some players have been upset thinking they were held out because of contract concerns.

The Twins should offer Buxton... the opportunity to play somewhere else while the Twins focus on players who play full seasons.

This is an excellent, well thought out article about his potential contract extension. Well done! The AAV doesn’t scare me. Neither does the incentives to be honest. It’s the number of years that terrifies me.

This negotiation is one of the most unique discussions in MLB history. There’s frankly very few, if any (I can’t think of one) examples in the past with players who have only played 100+ games once in their controllable years with a team. I’m glad my employment is not in consideration making this decision. 

If we end up extending him through his mid 30s, we have to be very confident his newly found power is sustainable. Otherwise, halfway through that contract he’ll become an anchor in the organization instead of the beaming light of hope he is today. 

If I were Derek Falvey, I would try like hell to make that extension 5 years or less. I’m way more comfortable with the potential of losing him at 32/33, rather than being contractually obligated to him through 35. 

On 10/20/2021 at 1:09 PM, Doctor Gast said:

Andrew, love your article! Love your common sense backed up with unbias data. I encourage you to write as often as you can because you're a pleasure to read and to disarm any false ideas out there. 

I concur 100%. Promote @Andrew Mahlketo the front page of TD! 

I appreciate the effort and math that went into this.  I personally would probably shave another 10% off of every tier and the base and would feel more comfortable.  I've always thought the $/WAR figures were a tad silly and even with your excellent work recalibrating them I still think it start too high.

Great read!

Nice, well thought out and explained article Andrew.  I, personally have no idea what they should pay him.  I only know, that when he PLAYS...he's very good.  Your article lays a foundation of how the Twins (and Byron as well) should approach this.  A solid "BASE" salary, and then incentives for games played to reach an overall salary.  This protects the Twins should Byron, once again, get injured.  It also protects the potential future earnings of Buxton and would incentivize him to remain a Twin.  And look, once the Twins and Byron settle on what he's "worth" if the Twins are unable to put together a pitching staff (like the Angels with Trout) then teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Mets will STILL be willing to trade for him.  But as a front office, the Twins can't just let him walk.  They MUST get a deal done.

Buxton extension is one of the hardest things to figure out.  When he is healthy and on field he can be the best in baseball, but he is only on field half the time.  It would make sense to offer him something like a 5 to 7 year deal, with options at the end allowing him to opt out after like 3 seasons to try and cash in again if he stays healthy over those 3 years.  Including in games played incentives to boost his pay over that time too.  

The question is, will he be willing to accept a contract like that without testing the market?  If I was his agent I would advise him to demand full value contract without games played incentives on the value he has shown when he plays.  If Twins balk at it, then test the market.  I bet there is a team out there that will give him what he is seeking, and if he fails to play they eat the cost.  Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, or other big market teams can afford to push the luxary tax line and eat his lost costs if he does not play.  

If no team is willing to, then maybe he comes back to something similar to the offer I mentioned.  Signing Buxton to long term deal at big bucks will be one of the biggest gambles of any mid-market or lower team. It will still be a little bit of a gamble for a large market team. 

3 hours ago, Trov said:

Buxton extension is one of the hardest things to figure out.  When he is healthy and on field he can be the best in baseball, but he is only on field half the time.  It would make sense to offer him something like a 5 to 7 year deal, with options at the end allowing him to opt out after like 3 seasons to try and cash in again if he stays healthy over those 3 years.  Including in games played incentives to boost his pay over that time too.  

The question is, will he be willing to accept a contract like that without testing the market?  If I was his agent I would advise him to demand full value contract without games played incentives on the value he has shown when he plays.  If Twins balk at it, then test the market.  I bet there is a team out there that will give him what he is seeking, and if he fails to play they eat the cost.  Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, or other big market teams can afford to push the luxary tax line and eat his lost costs if he does not play.  

If no team is willing to, then maybe he comes back to something similar to the offer I mentioned.  Signing Buxton to long term deal at big bucks will be one of the biggest gambles of any mid-market or lower team. It will still be a little bit of a gamble for a large market team. 

I think you're significantly overvaluing Buxton's leverage (and his on field value) right now and looking at things a little too simply. I don't see Buxton as an MVP talent. I see him as an All Star talent based on some scary peripherals like BB/K rates and small sample sizes.

1. How do the Twins benefit from the aforementioned contract? It boils down to a 2-3 year deal where if Buxton sucks, he stays for 3 more seasons and if he does well, he leaves. Those types of contracts are for elite talent players who have backed up that elite performance across full seasons before and just had a down year. 

2. This one is easy. The Twins don't "balk" at the full guaranteed, full value extension, they trade Buxton immediately and let somebody else deal with primadonna-like demands without discussing the contract extension discussion publicly.

3. The idea Buxton can test the market, prove there is no market and then come back to the Twins and get their best offer weeks or months later isn't realistic. The Twins, like any other team, will move on and not wait for Buxton to come back. If Buxton did come back to the Twins in that scenario, he'd be in a position of no leverage and having to accept a much lower value. Lance Lynn found out the very hard way offers aren't forever when he declined the Cardinals' OQ and subsequent offers (including multi-year offers) from other teams before he settled for the lower 1 year $12MM Twins contract. I don't think any team in baseball would give Buxton more than $10MM-$15MM per year for 2-3 years guaranteed right now. 

Negotiation is just risk calculation. What is the team willing to risk vs. what is the player willing to risk?

Make him an offer he can’t refuse. If he refuses, trade him.

Great article!  The Buxton situation is complex I agree.  How can any rational person put him in the same category as Mike Trout and others.  Those players have proven their superstar status by PLAYING and PRODUCING superstar stats over years.  People always dismiss his injuries and games missed.  You can't do that anymore than you think by expanding this year's part time stats over 162 games makes him a superstar.  I hope they keep him at a reasonable salary not these super salaries normally set for REAL superstars.  Remember he is a career .248 hitter over 7 seasons with the Twins.  How do you grossly overpay someone who's been a part time player on the hope he might play a full season and might produce like a full time player.  Very risky.

If a 7/$80 base is agreeable, the incentives almost don't matter, provided the total pay for any one year caps out at around $30mil or so. I certainly would pick nits at the proposal by @Andrew Mahlke, going for a lower guarantee with higher incentives, especially for 150 GP, but I don't think his proposal is unreasonable by any stretch. 

The data is pretty obvious over the previous three seasons combined that when Buxton is written onto the lineup card, the Twins are one of the best teams in MLB. His offense is fine, but the difference he makes on defense and on the bases is (IMO and the opinion of Eno Saris in a general sense) undervalued by the metrics. 

It goes to show that this doesn't have to be that difficult. If Buxton reaches 150 games played, the Twins are almost certainly in the playoffs and ownership is raking in that playoff related revenue to pay Buxton.

I don’t see him taking anything under $25m per year guaranteed PLUS incentives.