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Tale of the Fifth Starter Tape


Ted Schwerzler

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There are not many question marks on the Minnesota Twins 26-man roster coming into the 2020 season. Jake Cave and Willians Astudillo are in contention for the final bench spot, and the rotation has turned into a two-man race. How do Randy Dobnak and Jhoulys Chacin stack up?

 

Coming into the spring there’s no denying the Twins hope was to have the veteran Chacin make this decision easy. Forget that Dobnak was the game two starter during the 2019 ALDS in Yankees Stadium, he’s a guy that showed up out of nowhere and has options remaining. The caveat though, is that he is the one continuing to force Minnesota’s hand.

 

By now you know the story. Former Uber driver that played through all three levels of the farm in 2019 while posting a ridiculous 2.07 ERA, he’s the fun-loving guy with the handlebar mustache. Although he deviates from the traditional strikeout hurlers of today, he’s also incredibly strong with both his control and command. In not allowing hitters to beat him with big innings, he’s pitching in front of a lineup that will always give him a chance.

 

After arguably his worst spring start, Dobnak now own a line of 10.0 IP 5 H 3 R 3 ER 3 BB and 6 K. Dominant, maybe not, but he’s looked the part of a big leaguer ever single time he’s stepped on the mound. Again, with the Twins hoping to unlock the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers version of Chacin, this wasn’t likely part of the equation.

 

The long-time vet was an absolute mess last year. Jhoulys posted a 5.79 ERA while walking everyone before being jettisoned from The Crew. He landed in Boston and things actually got worse. Contributing just north of 14 IP, he tallied an ERA north of 7.00 and continued giving out free passes for frequently than an ice cream man at the playground.

 

Looking to rekindle the arm that produced a 3.50 ERA in 192 innings during the 2018 season, Minnesota made a smart decision by nabbing him on a non-roster deal. Given his big-league experience, the assumption should have always been that the final rotation spot out of the gate was his to lose. He’s been projected as such in each of my roster breakdowns in this space, but it’s becoming ever harder to do so.

 

After his last outing Chacin has now totaled 8.0 IP in Grapefruit League play for Minnesota. Although he does have a solid 8/2 K/BB, he’s given up seven hits, plenty of hard contact, and six earned runs. To say that hitters have rarely been fooled by his stuff would be accurate.

 

Obviously as a newly developed pitching institution, there’s plenty of tweaks the Twins are working on with the Venezuelan. Between analytical deep dives and scrapping of offerings, the goal has been to rekindle a career under the tutelage of Wes Johnson and the infrastructure that Derek Falvey has built. So far, the fruits of everyone’s labor have yet to produce anything ripe.

 

We’re probably still too far out to call this race over, and still with an option Dobnak is going to need to be head and shoulders above his competition. Right now though, it’s inaccurate to call him anything but the most productive candidate, and once again the taxi driver is weaving his way through traffic.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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Yeah, I like Dobnak, even with a loss today.  If I had to choose today, I'd go with Dobnak.  But we've got two more weeks of Spring training to go.  That gives each candidate at least 2 more starts.  Things might be clearer then.

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Dobnak was awesome when I saw him on Tuesday last week, and that was followed up by Chacin looking terrible on Friday.

 

They were complete opposites in terms of the contact they gave up. Predominantly weak for Dobnak, predominantly crushed against Chacin.

 

I think you can confidently put Dobnak in the 5th spot right now, and for me it would not be particularly close.

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Yeah, I like Dobnak, even with a loss today.  If I had to choose today, I'd go with Dobnak.  But we've got two more weeks of Spring training to go.  That gives each candidate at least 2 more starts.  Things might be clearer then.

And even with him having an off day yesterday he only gave up 3 hits over 4 innings. He's the type that even when he doesn't have his best stuff he keeps you in the game. Perfect for your 5th rotation spot

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Yes - like so many I am emotionally connected with Dobnak and really have no connection to Chacin.  Perhaps the real disappointment is that this was supposed to be a four person contest and Thorpe for reasons we might learn along the away did himself and his pocketbook a real disservice by leaving the team for two weeks.  I hope whatever happened is resolved and Smeltzer just does not look like an MLB starter.  He had a good story too, but I do not see him making this improved roster. 

 

Right now Dobnak is the guy and Chacin will probably be released to seek another opportunity.

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Chacin has not impressed, Dobnak looks good. Should not be that difficult decision. Chacin just looks like he does not have it anymore. Dobnak on the rise, give him a shot, Pineda coming back mid-May then will have to decide on Bailey or Dobnak. Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Duran waiting for their opportunity as well Hill hopefully mid season.

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I'm really torn here. Given a choice, this is the perfect opportunity/time for a young 5th SP...Dobnak in this case...to gain experience, perform, and build his case for the future as well as 2020.

 

But if a flier like Chacin finds his old self again, you are adding not an experienced body, but a quality ML SP with real value for a team with playoff and WS aspirations. That would be killer! What a potential steal!

 

But yeah, how about a young SP from the system who can be a part of our team for years to come? Dobnak!

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I really should not say this, (I say that because we, the Dobnak's, are a humble Family) however, sometimes it needs to be said.  I looked it up, and you should too.  Gerrit Coles Minor league numbers compared to Randy"s minor league numbers.  Yes Randy does not throw 97-98 MPH, he is not 6'4", but he has thrown as high as 96 MPH.  I am not saying Randy is Gerrit Cole, what I am saying is that Randy throws strikes and works really hard at learning his craft.  He is definitely the kinda guy you just naturally want to root for, am I right?  He is in it for the Love of the game.  I tell people this story all the time.  When he was 6 or 7 years old I noticed that he was more comfortable inside the diamond than outside of it.  He was like a fish out of water when you would talk to him after a game.  It did not matter if he went 4 for 4 with a walkoff hit or Homerun, or 0 for 4.   He would rather talk about anything but Baseball.  I know it sounds silly, but it is the truth.  Thank you to anyone that reads this, I apologize for rambling, and yes I am biased, because I am his Dad.  GO TWINS!!!!!

 

 

 

 

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