What If The Twins Don't Go Big This Year?
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We are within the last 24 hours before the trade deadline and the market has been quiet for basically every non-Mets team in MLB. Apparently, this has become a pattern around major league GM’s in recent memory, whether it’s the deadline or offseason free agency. The fact is, none of the contenders has done much so far. What if they don’t?
First of all, this is not what I assume is going to happen. I believe that, eventually, teams willing to win will make their moves. But I’m curious to see what’s going to happen if none of them actually pulls the trigger until tomorrow. Granted, 2019 has one particularity. Most teams are considerably indecisive about being sellers or buyers, as USA Today columnist Bob Nightengale tweeted on Monday:
https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1155904273567211521
Like I said, I strongly believe that contending teams will pull the trigger. But I have to say that I’m starting to be a little bit concerned if the Twins are among those teams. Don’t get me wrong, I really hope this suspicion is completely wrong. But if Derek Falvey and Thad Levine don’t bring in the stars Twins fans are hoping for, it wouldn’t be something never seen before in their regime.
The biggest example that comes to my mind is the last offseason. After bringing in key veterans to power the already good offense in C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins had basically one urgent matter to address: the bullpen. For us fans, it sounded crazy to think they wouldn’t sign big names in the beginning of the year, especially because they had plenty of payroll room for that.
We all know what happened. The Twins decided to wait and made Blake Parker their one and only big free agent signing for the bullpen. Six months later, they still have the same urgent matter to be addressed. What if they choose to approach it the same way? Chances are very little, but here are three questions I ask about this current deadline for the Twins.
Is this their “all in year”?
This is an important matter. Is 2019 the ultimate contending year for the Twins? Should they spend top prospects to make the team stronger for this playoff run? One can argue that it isn’t. The Twins already have one of the best young cores in baseball. And that’s talking about MLB-talent, not only about prospects. The best offense in the league has an average age of 27.7. If it wasn’t for Nelson Cruz, it would be 26.9. That’s unbelievably young.
Also, Fangraphs currently ranks the Twins’ farm system as the sixth best in MLB and Minnesota has five players in the Top 100 Prospects in the game. So, would it really be the worst thing in the world if they didn’t commit to winning this year’s World Series? Maybe not. Maybe trusting this young core and let them get post-season experience at this point could make a huge difference in the years to come.
Is this team good enough to win?
I’ll be straight here and say that I don’t think so. But some people do. In several moments, Minnesota had the best record in baseball and have solidly stayed put within the top four teams in the league. Is it crazy to assume they can pull this? Perhaps no. Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski tweeted yesterday an interesting rank of how many Wins Above Replacement (WAR) each team has outside their top four players. Guess who’s on top?
https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1155913288179441666
Bottom line, Minnesota has a damn good team. They have taken the season series against the Astros earlier in the year and made the Yankees sweat to defeat them. Also, they currently have a 29-24 record against teams with .500 or above. That’s an 88-win pace on a 162-game season. It’s hard to believe, but such inconsistent pitching staff as the Twins’ has been currently has the seventh best ERA and FIP in the game, as well as the fourth most WAR. Like I said, I don’t think this team has what it takes to win it all the way its roster is right now, but I don’t think those who believe that are being unreasonable.
Are there really good options?
Maybe the biggest concern for all teams considering buying in this deadline is the lack of clear options. One of the Twins main targets, Marcus Stroman, was traded to the Mets during the weekend for an unbelievably cheap price. The Mets also kind of ruled out trading Noah Syndergaard to Minnesota when they asked for Byron Buxton in return, as reported by Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III. In his opinion, “the Twins seem comfortable with their rotation”. And that probably adds up. I mean - and this is an honest question - who do you see in the league now that would represent a considerable leap in quality for the Twins rotation? Should they spend quality prospects to get players who would produce the same as their current starters?
When talking about the bullpen, things are clearly different when we talk about the club’s needs, but no so different when we talk about availability of options. In my opinion, the best option for Minnesota and for any team, for that matter, would be the Pirates’ Felipe Vásquez. But rumors have it that Pittsburgh is asking too much. Is he worth giving two or three top prospects for you? Besides, the Dodgers seem like frontrunners to acquire him. Kirby Yates also looks like a great fit, but the Padres appear to be in buyers mode, as they have inquired the Mets about bringing in “Thor”.
There are other names who could be pursuited. So far, Sergio Romo is the only addition and Cody Allen is doing work in the minors to try to earn a spot. Neither of them cost the Twins much. Maybe we should be expecting cheap signings like these two instead of big splashes. Maybe they will work. What would you do?
By this time tomorrow we will have our answers. Minnesota has to choose between shopping big and try to win it all this year or just modestly improve an already good team, patiently waiting for years to come and not compromising the long-term future.
- DocBauer, DannySD and nclahammer
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