I think that's still too many openings for internal solutions.  Plus I would rather Romero start as he does have top of the rotation potential.  So signing 1 legit bullpen piece like Soria and another to add to the competition is not a bad way to go.  That would give our pen 5 reliable arms and three competing for spots with a number of players.  I do think a few of them can make it like Moya and Magill so I am OK with 3 spots especially if we have a minor league signing or two to compete as well.  

Moya, Vasquez, and Mejia are three lefties I think will get lots of looks.  I think Mejia still has a solid shot at the 5th starter though.  

Curtis, Reed, and Duffy are three guys who have either not been given a chance or have control issues or haven,t been effective so far.  I don't want to guarantee a spot to any of these three as they need to force their way back into the equation.  

Magill is in line for a bullpen spot too.  Or at least should have a leg up on a spot.  

But like you say the key is if you plan on using Romero out of the pen.  That would be the key to your argument that we don't need to go outside for bullpen arms.  And that is a valid one though i hope the Twins do not commit to keeping him in the pen for a full season.  I want him ready to take over for Odorizzi by the end of next season in the rotation.  

It is difficult to distinguish this issue from the "we have money to spend" issue.    I think that Mejia and Romero are the most-likely 5th starters right now, leaving the other of them to join the bullpen as a long man (or in some sort of opener role that has been discussed).  If the top 4 of the o.p.'s post are likely bullpen locks, and you add Mejia/Romero to it, we are still 2-3 arms short.

Moya and Vasquez, Stewart and Gonsalves, Curtiss, Magill and Duffy (not to mention Jay or Littrell or Jake Reed or DeJong) are all possibilities for those spots.   I would feel comfortable suggesting there are 2-3 out of the first four listed above, at least to roll with early on (knowing that the list doesn't end there).

Again, dollars aside, I think (somewhere, to varying degrees of dependability) there are 2-3 capable bullpen arms in that list, and if there are not, many of the above names would need to be jettisoned to make room for the outside help that would fill those spots.  We are just not in a position to demand outside help and also have a reasonable tryout for young arms trying to move up.    I am not optimistic that spring training would even shake this out in a fair and level competition given the number of names, muddied further if other names are added.

It strikes me, however, that the team is going to get at least one additional bullpen arm this offseason, and the above group is going to compete for the 7th and 8th spots in the pen.   I wish we would have seen more of this competition in a lost September, (and believe that we are more likely to find lightning in a bottle among that group than fishing in the free agent marketplace).   It seems the front office strategy is to wait this out and supplement the core in any area of weakness, depending solely on how far the position players, starting staff, and existing bullpen options can keep us competitive.  

If we don't have the core, as has often been suggested, there isn't any one or two bullpen arms that is going to move the needle sufficiently to take us from mediocre (or worse) to competitive.

I know this article is about our internal options at Rochester, but I’m going take it step further and look at our options in High A and AA.

Last year Cody Stashak made a near complete transition from starter to reliever, and it was a huge success as he posted 2.87 ERA/1.073 WHIP/11.2 SO/9. While he’s likely headed for AAA to start the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s first to get called up next season.

Velocity and stuff alone make Jorge Alcala the Twins best internal option, but does the FO see him as starter or a reliever?? He’s made relief appearances before, but with his kind of stuff, it’s likely that the FO will continue to develop him as a starter, but like Fernando Romero, he’s definitely someone who could thrive in 1-2 inning max effort role.

Starting the 2018 season in Cedar Rapids, LH reliever Jovani Moran eventually pitched his way to Fort Myers and could could possibly pitch his way into the Twins immediate plans if Moya/Vasquez faulter and he continues where he left off (2.25 ERA/1.053 WHIP/12.7 SO/9).

Making 10 appearances in the Arizona Fall League, Hector Lujan didn’t pitch as well as he would’ve liked, but after a very good year in Fort Myers (2.64 ERA/1.256 WHIP/8.5 SO/9), not only is he set to open the season in AA, he’s now put himself in a good position to be called up for a cup of coffee at some point during the 2019 season.

Romero in the rotation is my wish.  Do not waste a dynamic arm like his by relegating him to the bullpen.  I am still a believer in starters.

I too would want to see Romero show what he can do as a starter. Basically he would have to pitch his way off the rotation. Same of rthe internal options, regardless of what level they come from. If not now, when? This isn't a team where adding a dominant reliever will make you a solid contender. But I will say that being able to pick up a Kelly, ore someone else that is solid with a minimum of another year of control, preferably another two years, would make sense.

The OP referenced Joe Kelly and his LA contract and his roots in SoCal. It also opined on the matter of whether we could have or would have paid enough to Kelly to play in a colder climate. These are salient points often ignored by those of us who are content in the layered look. All one has to do to research the desire that humanity has, all things being equal, to live outside the borders of the frozen tundra, is to look at a population map of the US. Athletes are not immune to that feeling. Given age, income, and the ability to perform anywhere in North Amaerica they will naturally tend to migrate towards moderate climes, higher revenue teams, and bigger city social life. And since we can't, or won't spend enough to overcome the "livability" factor, we will never attract the big FA's. Pretending we could maybe, possibly, almost, we were in the running, do it, hasn't worked for almost 60 years. Maybe a new tack is in order.

My plan would be a 7 man bullpen with the last two spots dedicated to players on options that can shuttle if needed to AAA.

Looking at the roster resource https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/

The Twins have Hildenberger, Moya, DeJong, Curtiss, Duffey, Vazquez and a bunch of AAA starters with options for those two spots. I was surprised by Duffey but maybe an option wasn’t used in 2016. He was recalled in April before that season was 20 days old.

The Twins need to fill the top 5 spots adding two free agent relievers to May, Rogers and Reed. I am not sure Magill has the upside to roster without the flexibility of options. He certainly could open the season at the back end of the pen and then get DFA’d when a reliever is needed.

Good job on a tough topic, but I don't agree with your conclusions. I see Rodgers and Reed being set, May did enough to pitch himself into the mix, and IMHO Hildenberger pitched himself out of the mix.

Stewart, Mejia, and Romero are all in our top 12-13 arms, and can return to being starters next season. Buy at least one and hopefully 2 bullpen arms.

28 blown saves last year. Even winning a third of them would have made this team look a lot better. Maybe Romero to the bullpen for a while would not be a bad idea.

Pitching is changing and the lines are blurring between SP and RP. There is nothing wrong with that. And I agree with the OP in theory but disagree in practice.

For now, Romero and Mejia would seem to be the favorites for the 5th rotation spot, followed by Gonsalves and the Stewart, IMO. Using a designated starter may be the optimum way to introduce a young SP. (Gonsalves and Stewart were very different performers when this was used last season).

May is a given, along with Rogers. Track history and a much better close the last few weeks of the season suggests Reed is also. Hildenberger is not a given, but his milb history, his 2017, and the first half of 2018 would have me betting on him. If Mejia isn't in the rotation, he is in the pen, followed by Moya and then Vaszquez. (Not saying they couldn't go with 3 LHRP).

You are correct that there are internal options, relievers and converted starters, to audition and roll through. But if the Twins really do like the positional players on hand, (And coming up), and are banking on a much different 2019, you owe it to your team to have a couple more quality options for the pen rather than just a series of auditions. And you always need depth over the course of the season.

With the vast number of options available, and the market slow, I would target one guy on a 2-3yr deal to be a part of this team. I would then target another arm for a 2yr or 1+1 deal. Whether I would consider a third arm on a 1yr alone is debatable.