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More K's than Hits!


mikelink45

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blog-0571732001530544051.jpghttps://www.apnews.com/084ccc602de94182817778ef905228dc/MLB-strikeouts-top-hits-for-2nd-time-in-3-months

 

 

"Strikeouts exceeded hits in the major leagues for the second time in three months, a deviation that had never occurred before this year.

 

There were 6,776 strikeouts and 6,640 hits in June, the Elias Sports Bureau said Sunday. That leaves the season totals at 21,090 strikeouts and 20,671 hits about halfway through the season."

 

What ails MLB? Here is a pretty good symptom. Major league teams are averaging 711 K to 273 BB at this point in the season. That is a team average not a league average. Our Minnesota Twins are 668 - 279. We are a little better than average (of course we have been without Buxton and Sano!

The MLB average batting pct is 246 - which includes pitchers in the NL, and the Twins are 238.

 

In 1927, a season known for a guy named Ruth and his 60 home runs, there was another forgotten record. The Philadelphia Athletics struck out only 327 times - that is the entire team - for the season! The Cincinnati Reds set the record for the fewest team strikeouts - 308 - in 1921. The Astros in 2013 struck out 1535 times. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/recbooks/rb_strike2.shtml Milwaukee Brewers batters struck out 1,571 times during the 2017 season, surpassing the previous mark of 1,543 by the Brewers in 2016. http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-strikeouts-in-a-season-team

 

The Minnesota Twins record for fewest strikeouts in a season is 684 in 1978! We are within 16 of surpassing that record. Our most is 1121 in 1997. We are way more than half way to that record.

 

When Nolan Ryan struck out 383 batters in 1973 the American League there 3.37 Ks per game, and in 2018 it is 8.53. "In 1973, when Ryan struck out 383 batters, only 10 American Leaguers struck out 100 times that season, none of them more than Bobby Darwin's 137. Last year in the AL, 73 hitters struck out 100 times, 24 of them more than Darwin's total." https://www.mlb.com/news/two-unbreakable-records-of-nolan-ryan/c-265897848

 

The rise of 5 strikeouts per game average is not because the pitchers are better, it is the new game, and it makes Ks meaningless and boring.

 

Thanks to a question by Sconnie I am adding this additional information. I think it is enlightening and important:

 

Happily.The stat heads - call it money ball if you want - came in and said that a K is ok.They said it was just another out and did not cause a DP, but they did not say it would not move a runner or cause an error or get a base hit..They discounted the K as a negative and the K rate has soared.Thus a pitcher is more likely to get a K than at any time in the past when batters protected the zone or choked up on their bat.

 

The old time slugger was embarrassed to strike out 100 times a season. Sano has 536 strike outs in 1288 at bats.Certainly a pitcher can be embarrassed when Sano connects, but if I think about 40 HRs, 40 solo HRs I have to ask if that really offsets all those strikeouts.We have 162 games, that means a HR every 4 games if he hits 40.What else happens?

 

This led to more high strikeout pitching rates, butnothing to compare with Ryan, Koufax, Johnson, Feller, etc who had high rates of strikeouts when batters really worked to make contact.So I do not know how to rank Kershaw, Sale, etc.I can say they are better than their contemporaries, but not better than the historical pitchers.

 

Where is the shame in striking out?Babe Ruth once said, "“Never let the fear of striking out get in your way.” Check out this article - Babe Ruth would be considered a contact hitter now -https://howtheyplay.com/team-sports/strikeouts-have-skyrocketed-since-Babe-Ruth "In 2012, Adam Dunn struck out 222 times. Babe Ruth struck out 234 times in a four-year period. Some have justified Dunn’s total with the fact that he hit 41 homers and walked 105 times. In Ruth’s four years when he had a combined total of just 12 more than Dunn had, he hit 182 home runs and walked 466 times (he also had 713 hits for a .355 batting average, compared to Dunn’s .204.)

 

Five players this year had more than 176 strikeouts, which was Ruth’s worst two-year total (1927-28 when he hit 114 home runs.) Several weeks ago, Sports Illustrated raved that Buster Posey is a player who rarely strikes out. Don Mattingly praised Posey as someone who doesn’t have a high strike out rate. So how many times did Posey fan in 2012? 96 times, three more than the highest total of Ruth, the strikeout king."

 

Look at this list of more home runs that strikeouts - https://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10091.html.

I will give you one more reference - from the Denver Post - https://www.denverpost.com/2018/04/29/mlb-strikeout-era/

 

And finally, here is an article that normalizes strikeout rates for the top 200 pitchers. htp://twww.highheats...rs-of-all-time/

 

I hope this gives you a lot to think about as we recognize that high heat meeting wild swings guarantees lots of Ks, but not good baseball.

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"The rise of 5 strikeouts per game average is not because the pitchers are better, it is the new game, and it makes Ks meaningless and boring."

 

Please expand. I was really interested, but feel like your final premise concluded a bit prematurely.

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"The rise of 5 strikeouts per game average is not because the pitchers are better, it is the new game, and it makes Ks meaningless and boring."

 

Please expand. I was really interested, but feel like your final premise concluded a bit prematurely.

Happily.  The stat heads - call it money ball if you want - came in and said that a K is ok.  They said it was just another out and did not cause a DP, but they did not say it would not move a runner or cause an error or get a base hit..  They discounted the K as a negative and the K rate has soared.  Thus a pitcher is more likely to get a K than at any time in the past when batters protected the zone or choked up on their bat.

 

The old time slugger was embarrassed to strike out 100 times a season. Sano has 536 strike outs in 1288 at bats.  Certainly a pitcher can be embarrassed when Sano connects, but if I think about 40 HRs, 40 solo HRs I have to ask if that really offsets all those strikeouts.  We have 162 games, that means a HR every 4 games if he hits 40.  What else happens?

 

This led to more high strikeout pitching rates, but  nothing to compare with Ryan, Koufax, Johnson, Feller, etc who had high rates of strikeouts when batters really worked to make contact.  So I do not know how to rank Kershaw, Sale, etc.  I can say they are better than their contemporaries, but not better than the historical pitchers. 

 

Where is the shame in striking out?  Babe Ruth once said, "“Never let the fear of striking out get in your way.”   Check out this article - Babe Ruth would be considered a contact hitter now - https://howtheyplay.com/team-sports/strikeouts-have-skyrocketed-since-Babe-Ruth  "In 2012, Adam Dunn struck out 222 times. Babe Ruth struck out 234 times in a four-year period. Some have justified Dunn’s total with the fact that he hit 41 homers and walked 105 times. In Ruth’s four years when he had a combined total of just 12 more than Dunn had, he hit 182 home runs and walked 466 times (he also had 713 hits for a .355 batting average, compared to Dunn’s .204.)

Five players this year had more than 176 strikeouts, which was Ruth’s worst two-year total (1927-28 when he hit 114 home runs.) Several weeks ago, Sports Illustrated raved that Buster Posey is a player who rarely strikes out. Don Mattingly praised Posey as someone who doesn’t have a high strike out rate. So how many times did Posey fan in 2012? 96 times, three more than the highest total of Ruth, the strikeout king."

 

Look at this list of more home runs that strikeouts -  https://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10091.html    

 

I will give you one more reference - from the Denver Post - https://www.denverpost.com/2018/04/29/mlb-strikeout-era/ 

 

And finally, here is an article that normalizes strikeout rates for the top 200 pitchers.  http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/02/normalized-strikeout-rates-for-the-top-200-pitchers-of-all-time/  

 

I hope this gives you a lot to think about as we recognize that high heat meeting wild swings guarantees lots of Ks, but not good baseball. 

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Amazing information! Thanks for posting this. Just reading your comparison of today's vs. historical strikeout numbers made me yearn to watch a baseball game of old and marvel at the balls put in play, the frequent excitement of fielding the ball, the bunting (not the decoration kind), the steal attempts, the sacrifice, the actual frequent contact of bat on ball. What a treat that would be to see. 

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No statistical evidence, just my opinion and observation watching the game for 45+ years.

 

The steroid era and Sportscenter highlights started the demise of the bunt, situational hitting and stealing bases. Post steroids has brought about concentration on exit velocity and launch angles.

 

This has done a couple of things. 1] slowed down the pace of the game as hitters are looking for pitches to drive out 2] increased SO totals as a result of a more free-swinging approach and smart pitchers throwing stuff high.

 

Most sports see evolutions in their game. I almost wonder now if you build your team with more contact, speed and situational ball you wouldn't be considered "innovative ".

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No statistical evidence, just my opinion and observation watching the game for 45+ years.

The steroid era and Sportscenter highlights started the demise of the bunt, situational hitting and stealing bases. Post steroids has brought about concentration on exit velocity and launch angles.

This has done a couple of things. 1] slowed down the pace of the game as hitters are looking for pitches to drive out 2] increased SO totals as a result of a more free-swinging approach and smart pitchers throwing stuff high.

Most sports see evolutions in their game. I almost wonder now if you build your team with more contact, speed and situational ball you wouldn't be considered "innovative ".

You pose a wonderful question.  I too wonder if a team of speed and contact might just turn the league upside down.  It would be so great to see a team buck the trend.

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