Trade Target: Marcus Stroman

[DiscGolfer]

I don't think Stroman is a significant enough upgrade over what we already have.  If the Twins are trading away quality prospects I want something better.

[Dantes929]

 

Of course it ends up closer to 5 than 3......is anyone expecting an ERA under 4? That would make him a legit number 2 in this run scoring era.

 

 

  

Stop using my old arguments against me though I still think it needs to be under 4 to be called a 2-3 starter.   

 

 

 

 

Last year, no one wanted to deal Romero, because he had a ceiling of a number 2, and a floor of a high leverage RP. Anyone want to rethink that? The floor for guys that have never pitched in the majors is a lot lower than people want to think......

Anecdotal evidence abounds for every argument.     Last year everyone wanted Yu Darvish because he had a ceiling of a #1.   Anyone want to rethink that?   The floor for guys that have pitched in the majors is a lot lower than people want to think.    Didn't really want to be snarky there but liked the juxtaposition.  I am not that high on Stroman but could make an argument the other way as well.    I have seen more video of Graterol than I ever did of Gonsalves or Romero but freely admit he could bust.    I just don't like the argument that not all prospects flourish in the majors.   Of course its true, but its also true that all those that flourish in the majors were once prospects.    At one point many called for Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Rogers, Garver, May, Gibson, and Presley to be traded.    Honestly, if we are saying we are unhappy with Pineda as our #5 guy (too early for me) I would rather have Graterol come up right now and take his spot.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Stop using my old arguments against me though I still think it needs to be under 4 to be called a 2-3 starter.   

 

Anecdotal evidence abounds for every argument.     Last year everyone wanted Yu Darvish because he had a ceiling of a #1.   Anyone want to rethink that?   The floor for guys that have pitched in the majors is a lot lower than people want to think.    Didn't really want to be snarky there but liked the juxtaposition.  I am not that high on Stroman but could make an argument the other way as well.    I have seen more video of Graterol than I ever did of Gonsalves or Romero but freely admit he could bust.    I just don't like the argument that not all prospects flourish in the majors.   Of course its true, but its also true that all those that flourish in the majors were once prospects.    At one point many called for Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Rogers, Garver, May, Gibson, and Presley to be traded.    Honestly, if we are saying we are unhappy with Pineda as our #5 guy (too early for me) I would rather have Graterol come up right now and take his spot.

 

I'm not sure that pointing out that minor league pitchers rarely turn out as good as "proven" MLB pitchers is anecdotal.....but I get your points.

 

I'm not as sold on Gaterol as the rest of you....I get that. 

 

The Twins aren't demoting Pineda for Gaterol...but they might for Stroman. By the time they are ready to demote Pineda for an unproven minor leaguer, how many bad outings will it be? 5 more? 10? too many for me, this year.

 

But, I get everyone's hesitancy.....but I also don't know how people think they go from 88 wins or so, to serious contender without pitching improvements.

[Cap'n Piranha]

If we're targeting starting pitchers, I'd rather go the MadBum route.  21st in the league in FIP, less cause for concern then Stroman, and a real good postseason pedigree.  Given that he's a FA after the season, you might also be able to get him for less than Stroman, and then re-sign him if he performs.

[USAFChief]

 

I'm not sure that pointing out that minor league pitchers rarely turn out as good as "proven" MLB pitchers is anecdotal.....but I get your points.

 

I'm not as sold on Gaterol as the rest of you....I get that. 

 

The Twins aren't demoting Pineda for Gaterol...but they might for Stroman. By the time they are ready to demote Pineda for an unproven minor leaguer, how many bad outings will it be? 5 more? 10? too many for me, this year.

 

But, I get everyone's hesitancy.....but I also don't know how people think they go from 88 wins or so, to serious contender without pitching improvements.

I'd love to have Stroman, but not at the cost of Graterol. And I'm certainly not a prospect guy...I think most all prospects are wildly overrated, especially pitching prospects.

 

I just don't think Stroman represents that much of an upgrade to cost the Twins one of their few realistic pitching prospects in the higher minors. He's had one nice year, 2 years ago. It's possible he's back to healthy and good this year, but I don't gamble Graterol on that.

 

Trade Graterol for a guy who starts game 2 in the postseason.

 

The Jays can have Gonsalves for Stroman.

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd be fine with Gordon and Rooker. That's probably not enough though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think Stroman is a significant enough upgrade over what we already have. If the Twins are trading away quality prospects I want something better.

He’s not a significant upgrade over Pineda?

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the front office is confident Stroman is for real, Graterol should be on the table.

 

But that really depends how they view Stroman.

[Mr. Brooks]

He’s not a significant upgrade over Pineda?

His current numbers are a significant upgrade over Pineda's current numbers. But, I'm guessing the FO expected Pineda to be a process. I doubt it's a new revelation to them that guys take varying amounts of time to get a feel back after missing time with TJ surgery.

Obviously Pineda may never get better than this, but I'd guess he'll get more time than this to see if he can.

[Mike Sixel]

 

His current numbers are a significant upgrade over Pineda's current numbers. But, I'm guessing the FO expected Pineda to be a process. I doubt it's a new revelation to them that guys take varying amounts of time to get a feel back after missing time with TJ surgery.
Obviously Pineda may never get better than this, but I'd guess he'll get more time than this to see if he can.

 

5-10 more meh starts? Ugh. I mean, that's kind of my point.....how long do we go with him?

[Brock Beauchamp]

5-10 more meh starts? Ugh. I mean, that's kind of my point.....how long do we go with him?

I’d give him another month before weighing options.

 

It’s not as if the Twins have better options available before mid-June anyway.

[Blake]

 

If the front office is confident Stroman is for real, Graterol should be on the table.

But that really depends how they view Stroman.

Concur.

[dbminn]

Marcus Stroman would be a great addition but I wouldn't trade Graterol for him. The Twins have one starter signed for next year. Graterol may be ready to contribute in 2020 and is a far better prospect than any SP at AAA. I'd rather have both.

 

I'd offer Larnach and Alcala. I'd throw in Pineda and eat his salary. That's a high-floor OF, a lottery-ticket SP, and a replacement SP whom the Jays could move at the deadline. They could add a player like Rooker, Miranda or Baddoo if they want more. 

 

I'd consider trading Graterol in a package for Caleb Smith. At least the Twins would get four years of him.

[Vanimal46]

The reports I have read state a ceiling of #1 for Graterol. The floor seems to be a high leverage reliever and one we presumably have control of for many years. Meanwhile Stroman had a pretty bad year last year. One which would have many on here calling him a number 5 or AAAA starter. His good start this year is buoyed by a career high strikeout rate and the fact that no one hit a homer off him before last night. He has 4 quality starts, all against teams with below average OPS+ (Oakland, Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit) He got rocked in his last two starts by LA (also below average) and the Twins. Odorizzi and Lynn had very similar career numbers when we got them and no one was calling them number two or three starters. I would take him but I wouldn't put him ahead of 4 of our guys which to me makes him a #5. I would bet his ERA ends up closer to 5 than it does to 3 this year even given his good start. I would not give up Graterol.

As Mike replied before, most reports about prospects are rosy. Especially when the prospect finished high-A ball heading into their first season of AA.

 

This year is most likely Graterol's peak value as a minor leaguer. He'll have experience in AA, and we'll have a better idea whether he will truly be a starter or reliever.

 

Last season for Stroman was rough, no doubt. He hit the IL with shoulder issues that contributed to the bad season. The previous 2 seasons he threw 200+ innings with very respectable ERA/FIP peripherals. Because of his past history, he's more accomplished than Odorizzi when he was acquired, or Lynn.

 

I see you're leaning towards regression for Stroman. I'm leaning towards a bounce back to his previous production from 2016-2017. If he does, he's certainly a #2/3 type pitcher on a contending roster.

[Mr. Brooks]

5-10 more meh starts? Ugh. I mean, that's kind of my point.....how long do we go with him?

I'm guessing more than most will have the patience for.

Signing a guy having Tommy John surgery, paying him to recover, then demanding he be good out of the gate wouldn't be fair or well thought out.

 

They made this bed when they signed this deal 2 years ago, barring a total implosion, he'll get until the trade deadline to figure it out, IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm guessing more than most will have the patience for.

Signing a guy having Tommy John surgery, paying him to recover, then demanding he be good out of the gate wouldn't be fair or well thought out.

 

They made this bed when they signed this deal 2 years ago, barring a total implosion, he'll get until the trade deadline to figure it out, IMO.

I don’t know about that. I think he’ll get the hook earlier if things don’t improve.

 

Remember, he was expected to be on the field late last year. An injury set that back. The front office didn’t plan on him working back to MLB shape through half the 2019 season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I woudln't mind Stroman. They could do a lot worse. That said, I think Graterol is a bit too much to pay. 

 

I do want RP help. I have no problems letting Pineda try and sort things out for another month. I'm really concerned though if we don't do much about the pen. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I woudln't mind Stroman. They could do a lot worse. That said, I think Graterol is a bit too much to pay.

 

I do want RP help. I have no problems letting Pineda try and sort things out for another month. I'm really concerned though if we don't do much about the pen.

That’d be my focus as well. The team may need a starter as the season progresses but it’s not a pressing need today. The bullpen, on the other hand...

[ashbury]

Might it not take very much to pry Stroman away from the Jays?

 

The Contradictory World of the Toronto Blue Jays' Marcus Stroman

 

Might it be that our FO doesn't want this "complex personality" at any price?

[DiscGolfer]

 

He’s not a significant upgrade over Pineda?

 

He's an upgrade but just not enough for me.  After all the time they've invested in Pineda it's way too soon to give up on him, give him at least until July.  

 

I think he'll start trending in the right direction soon.  He hasn't been bad in every start this year.  

[FlauerPauer]

 

He's an upgrade but just not enough for me.  After all the time they've invested in Pineda it's way too soon to give up on him, give him at least until July.  

 

I think he'll start trending in the right direction soon.  He hasn't been bad in every start this year.  

 

No, he's been good for four innings. After that, dude needs to go.

[specialiststeve]

I would give up some minor league pitching but not position players that have a high ceiling. It's not like he is Sale or ANY thing close he is a quality starting pitcher. Gonsalvez/Romero and throw in a low level bat maybe. Rebuilding takes arms and that would be decent return. 

[ChrisKnutson]

I like Stroman, but I doubt we’ll outbid the Padres...

[markos]

 

That’d be my focus as well. The team may need a starter as the season progresses but it’s not a pressing need today. The bullpen, on the other hand...

Stroman replaces Pineda in the rotation. Pineda moves to the bullpen and becomes the Xth best option there. What is X? 3rd? 2nd?

[Dantes929]

 

As Mike replied before, most reports about prospects are rosy. Especially when the prospect finished high-A ball heading into their first season of AA.

This year is most likely Graterol's peak value as a minor leaguer. He'll have experience in AA, and we'll have a better idea whether he will truly be a starter or reliever.

Last season for Stroman was rough, no doubt. He hit the IL with shoulder issues that contributed to the bad season. The previous 2 seasons he threw 200+ innings with very respectable ERA/FIP peripherals. Because of his past history, he's more accomplished than Odorizzi when he was acquired, or Lynn.

I see you're leaning towards regression for Stroman. I'm leaning towards a bounce back to his previous production from 2016-2017. If he does, he's certainly a #2/3 type pitcher on a contending roster.

Take another look at Lynn and Odorizzi histories.   I'm not seeing the separation in their good years.  I'm not anti Stroman.   On a board that loves strikeouts so much I am a little surprised to see someone who's current career high is less than the other two career averages.     I like Stroman's control and  potential.   I would maybe  give up Rooker and Thorpe for him.     We all have our biases and I would maybe change my opinion if we had a third year option.   I get that prospect reports are rosy but top 3 prospects on highly rated systems are fairly safe bets.    

[Mike Sixel]

For those that want a better pitcher, with control, who is that that will actually be available? Because there aren't many that meet all three criteria.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Might it not take very much to pry Stroman away from the Jays?

 

The Contradictory World of the Toronto Blue Jays' Marcus Stroman

 

Might it be that our FO doesn't want this "complex personality" at any price?

 

Yeah, pass.

[h2oface]

 

Good job. Based on this, I'd exclude Lewis and Kiriloff off the bat, then start the negotiations. I'd rather have Stroman than Gaterol. So, Gaterol and Gordon and a throw in should do it easily. Though that might be a slight overpay.

 

I heard that Kirilloff and Graterol want their consonants back. I remember it by equating Kirilloff with the two Ls in Killer, add the off........ and Graterol becoming great.... hopefully, and it matches Brusdar. 

[RatherBeGolfing]

I don't know, there's a lot of people that don't like how often Trevor May is on Twitter and the "maybe he should focus more on pitching than Fortnite" takes. They'd really hate having Stroman around if that's their way of evaluating players

[goulik]

 

5-10 more meh starts? Ugh. I mean, that's kind of my point.....how long do we go with him?

Pineda has gotten a raw deal from his defense the last few starts. I am seriously wondering how many errors there have been behind him vs other  starters. His last two starts have been hurt by errors even if he prevented the unearned runs, he has also had to pitch a lot more pitches to get out of innings only to have shorter outings that hurt his numbers because he picked up the defense. repeatedly. 

All that to say, he has pitched better than the numbers. That is not saying he is our #2 or #3, but his numbers are deceiving IMHO.