Article: Standing Pat as a Strategy

[Nick Nelson]

'As we speak cruel time is fleeing. Seize the day, believing as little as possible in the morrow.' – Horace

 

By all appearances, this is going to be a low-key winter for the Minnesota Twins. Coming off a season full of setbacks, the front office is reluctant to make firm commitments or chart a new course, with so much uncertainty permeating its existing core.

 

And you know what? I get it. It's a logical approach in the scope of long-term strategy. But that doesn't make coming to terms with this reality any less of a bummer.To their credit, the Twins have been proactive in addressing their needs this offseason. Already they have filled their two clearest positional vacancies. Granted, they've done so by gathering up castoffs non-tendered by other organizations, but C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop are hardly scraps. They're legitimate starters and intriguing flyers for a rebuilding team.

 

It is that last part that stings. Every indication I've seen signals a conservative approach this offseason, as the front office continues to bide time and see how things shake out with its inherited volatile assets.

 

"The Twins have indicated that next season will be about allowing their young core to continue to develop," La Velle E. Neal III wrote in forecasting a quiet week at the Winter Meetings.

 

Derek Falvey himself echoed that sentiment during a Friday interview with 1500 ESPN.

 

"I do believe that you build championship teams around an internal core," Falvey said. "In our particular situation I think we’re really attentive to how we impact that core with complementary pieces."

 

"You have to be thoughtful, the more years out you go, how it impacts your club."

 

This isn't a new narrative from Falvey's baseball ops group, and the strategy thus far has aligned.

 

Schoop on a one-year deal allows the Twins to wait and see what happens next year with Nick Gordon, added to the 40-man roster last month. Gordon had an awful season in 2018 but he's 22, a former top-10 draft pick, and a fixture on national Top 100 prospect lists. Any kind of long-term answer at second base would have amounted to waving the white flag on this highly touted and talented youth.

 

As far as stopgaps go, Schoop's a damn good one. He's 27 and one year removed from an All-Star campaign that earned him MVP votes.

 

The Cron situation is similar. The Twins don't quite have a Gordon-level prospect coming up at first base but Brent Rooker looks like a player and could be ready by midseason. Minnesota also is accounting for the very real possibility that Miguel Sano will be relegated to first base in the near future. Cron gives them flexibility and offers a fairly high floor; he's almost certain to be a significant improvement over Joe Mauer v.2018. Plus, the Twins can control Cron in 2020, which will look great if he backs up his breakout campaign.

 

So, like I said, I get the rationale for these moves. They're very defensible. But they're not bold or particularly ambitious. They don't point to an outright aspiration for serious contention in the division next year. At best, the Twins are hoping they catch fire with these low-wattage additions while things coalesce elsewhere.

 

Even with solid returns on Cron and Schoop, and moderate improvements among the incumbent crowd, this position-player unit still doesn't look all that well designed. The offense is desperately lacking for on-base percentage. An infield alignment of Sano, Jorge Polanco, Schoop and Cron will likely be very poor defensively. Mitch Garver's status is basically a mystery at this point.

 

The team is caught in flux, and that's not really anyone's fault so much as just the way things have played out. Most other positions on this roster are similar to first and second base – unestablished at present, but with too promising or undecided an outlook for drastic changes in direction.

 

An offseason spent more or less standing pat makes sense for the Twins. But for fans – even those who fully understand and accept the thought process – it stinks nonetheless.

 

Cron and Schoop are logical in the rebuilding framework because they're young and capable enough that either could turn into parts of the go-forward vision – or at least deadline trade chips to further supplement the pipeline. But they are probably not the kind of decisive difference-makers who help Minnesota take the next step, in the event that Buxton and Sano rebound.

 

We all know they are at the heart of the matter – Buxton and Sano – and that neither of those outcomes can be fully counted upon, but it's almost as if the Twins are planning around it not happening, turning their gaze already to the next hot prospect wave led by Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff.

 

Which brings me back to that Horace quote from the outset about the unrelenting passage of time. "As we speak cruel time is fleeing. Seize the day, believing as little as possible in the morrow." We can all hope Lewis, Kirilloff and the next group are up to the task of pulling this franchise from the dredges, but no one can be blamed for pessimism as we watch an endless rebuild carry on in perpetuity, with Buxton and Sano entering their theoretical primes.

 

Falvey and Thad Levine have made some nice moves with the coaching staff and behind the scenes (where some would argue the real war is being waged), but those moves don't put fans in the seats, nor do savvy buy-low investments like Schoop and Cron. The Twins drew their lowest attendance this year since 2004 at the Metrodome, and while that's partially attributable to weather, it also speaks to growing fan apathy, which I fear will only worsen in 2019 if Minnesota stays on course to field a low-payroll, low-profile club.

 

Fans have endured nearly a decade of mediocre or worse play at Target Field. Even if the current rhetoric and ensuing actions are perfectly reasonable and valid, the whole "building a sustainable long-term winner, eventually" model doesn't do much to energize or excite a base that could really use some energy and excitement.

 

Right now, the real focus is on 2020. At various points in the past, it's been on 2018, 2017, 2016, etc. No one wants or expects a rebuild to take eight-plus years, but here we are.

 

If you've been conditioned into believing as little as possible in the morrow, that's more than fair. Especially because of the unique window of winnability in the AL Central, which won't last forever.

 

At the same time, if you put yourself in the shoes of the team's decision makers, with all they must account for, hopefully you can see why – from their view – it's not quite time to seize the day.

 

But as we speak, cruel time is fleeing...

 

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[sorney]

Arg.  This is both intriguing, and depressing at the same time. 

[dxpavelka]

While not sexy the strategy is solid.  Which players and how much would they have to pay them to be legitimate World Series contenders in 2019?  Stay the course, develop the core, and don't block the advancement path of guys like Royce Lewis, Brusdar Graterol, Nick Gordon, Akil Badoo, Blayne Enlow, Lewin Diaz, Jose Miranda, Tyler Wells,Jaylin Davis, DaShawn Kiersey & Tyler Watson.  Also need a little luck in hoping some of the young guys develop and hit the show and contribute a little sooner than expected.  

[D.C Twins]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz ….. eh uh....Torreyes?!….zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…….ah huh....Schoop?!……..zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz….agh, eh...….Cron?!….. I said wake me up when we do anything of consequence!  

 

How many Yankee entrails does that make in the last 2 years? 

 

We should rename our team the Minnesota Yankee Pilot Fishes 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yes, they are kicking the can down the road, until Lewis is shortstop. The $100+ million payrolls are a thing of the past. If they can win in the meantime, payroll won’t matter, but that is to be determined. The present core certainly has the talent.

[Dman]

Yep what are they gonna do give up on Rosario, Buxton or Kepler and Cave in the outfield?  Give up on Sano or Polanco in the infield?  Give up on Garver, Austudillo as catcher utility guys?   It is too early to give up on those guys we have to hope they develop.

 

Pitching wasn't as bad last year and we have Slegers, Romero, Gonsalves Littel, Thorpe,Mejia and Stewart waiting for chances.  We can't keep them in AAA forever.

 

The guys we have need to step up.  I agree it seems like we have saying next year for the last four years or so and is getting old but at this point I feel resigned to the fact that we need more of a core before we start making moves.  I am willing to give them another year to prove themselves. 

 

 

If guys don't improve then Lewis, Kiroloff, Rooker and maybe Gordon and Wade await their chance sooner rather than later.

[Mike Sixel]

It doesn't point to competitiveness in 2020 either, since they will be relying on rookies like Gordon and whomever is replacing Cron, or more stop gaps.

 

If this is the plan, not trading Gibson is really stupid.

[Dman]

 

It doesn't point to competitiveness in 2020 either, since they will be relying on rookies like Gordon and whomever is replacing Cron, or more stop gaps.

If this is the plan, not trading Gibson is really stupid.

Yeah good point unless Rooker, Lewis or Kiriloff are great from the start we have to wait a year or two for them to develop as well.  

 

I just hope we can find or trade for some young front line pitching at some point.  It feels like unless they find some super stars we are stuck in perpetual rebuild.

[nytwinsfan]

One wonders if Falvey and Levine feel like the previous regime partially screwed up the development of Buxton and Sano, and feel they can do a better job with the next wave of prospects. I'm not saying they are giving up on Buxton and Sano (they clearly aren't), just that they maybe feel like Buxton and Sano are already a couple of years behind where their ability and potential should have or could have put them by now, and with only 3-4 years left in that window (absent extensions, which don't appear forthcoming), they don't want to sacrifice/undermine their "own" prospect wave by mortgaging it for the prior wave that they don't have complete ownership of or faith in.  I don't know, that's just the sense I get.  Part of it is what Falvey said in that ESPN interview about how the arms race has moved from "selection" to "devlopment." The sense I got from that part was that he (probably rightly) thinks the Twins had fallen way behind on development in the past 10 years or so. 

 

If it were up to me, I would extend at least Berrios (try to add 3-4 years) and Rosario (adding 1-2 years) this offseason (and maybe Buxton if the price were great, which it probably is not) so that they can be part of that next window. I don't see Sano, Kepler or Polanco being critical to that next wave. 

Edited December 10, 2018 by nytwinsfan

[Nick Nelson]

 

It doesn't point to competitiveness in 2020 either, since they will be relying on rookies like Gordon and whomever is replacing Cron, or more stop gaps.

If this is the plan, not trading Gibson is really stupid.

Well that's the thing, they're not punting. I know the total payroll is going to disappoint people but they are set to pay like $30 million combined for Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda. And I bet they ink Berrios to a long-term deal before the start of next season. They could've gone a lot more conservative than Schoop at second.

 

This team will have a chance if some things break right offensively, it's just not a real aggressive push. And the problem is that it's all too easy to see them in a very similar position a year from now.

[Old Twins Cap]

Not sure that Gordon's year can be characterized as "awful" -- a 22 yo moving to AAA, but, even without that, Schoop is an All-Star one year removed. He can field, hit and needs a good year.  Rather Schoop than Dozier, easily.

 

Torreyes is, on a per-pound basis, the best player ever released by the Yanks. Wait until you see this guy play, or being tossed in the air by Sano.

 

And, on Cron, barring injury, Austin gets cut.  Sure, we miss Mauer's OBP, but I won't miss a BA of loopers, dinks and hoppers that dump into LF. A guy who hit 30 HRs has potential to help.

 

Sign a reliever, maybe a LH DH/OF/1B bat and roll the dice. If still in it in July, hire a posse at the deadline and see what happens.

[108Stitches]

There are legitimate superstars and stars in this farm system. Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, maybe Graterol (gonna need more proof before I label him superstar future) and I think Rooker, Diaz, Tyler Wells will be stars. I get the strategy instead of chasing shiny pennies looking to do it today. This COULD be a situation where a true rebuilding and actual successful development of a team occurs.

[Mike Sixel]

Well that's the thing, they're not punting. I know the total payroll is going to disappoint people but they are set to pay like $30 million combined for Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda. And I bet they ink Berrios to a long-term deal before the start of next season. They could've gone a lot more conservative than Schoop at second.

 

This team will have a chance if some things break right offensively, it's just not a real aggressive push. And the problem is that it's all too easy to see them in a very similar position a year from now.

Given that Gibson, Reed, Pineda, odorrizi, Castro, Cron, Schoop, and I must be missing someone, are all only here for one more year, yes, they will be in this position again. It's what happens when you have lots of holes and refuse to sign long term deals.

 

That's seven of their 25 man roster..... Five of whom are pitchers.

[ChrisKnutson]

It doesn't point to competitiveness in 2020 either, since they will be relying on rookies like Gordon and whomever is replacing Cron, or more stop gaps.

If this is the plan, not trading Gibson is really stupid.

 

I’d be nice if we could get rid of Odorizzi as well, but if not this offseason, than at least we’re setting ourselves up for big-ish returns next summer at the trade deadline with Castro/Pineda/Schoop/Cron/ and Reed all being FA next offseason as well.

[notoriousgod71]

JFC, by the time they figure out what to do Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Berrios will be hitting free agency.

 

[Mike Sixel]

JFC, by the time they figure out what to do Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Berrios will be hitting free agency.

Correct.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well that's the thing, they're not punting. I know the total payroll is going to disappoint people but they are set to pay like $30 million combined for Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda. And I bet they ink Berrios to a long-term deal before the start of next season. They could've gone a lot more conservative than Schoop at second.

 

This team will have a chance if some things break right offensively, it's just not a real aggressive push. And the problem is that it's all too easy to see them in a very similar position a year from now.

 

At this point, I'm not sure why freeing up money should matter to us as fans?

[savvyspy]

Standing pat has been this organization’s mission statement since 1961.

 

This is another, “If absolutely EVERYTHING goes right they get destroyed by the Yankees in the playoffs, or more predictably, they go 74-88” team.

[Wizard11]

Given the amount of discontent shared, I am curious what the critics would do differently? All paths that I can see are fraught with seemingly highly volatile potential outcomes. I get the frustration as the losing gets old. So does the endless griping. I would love it if those harboring the better solutions would generously share with the rest of us the “right” way to go about this offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

Given the amount of discontent shared, I am curious what the critics would do differently? All paths that I can see are fraught with seemingly highly volatile potential outcomes. I get the frustration as the losing gets old. So does the endless griping. I would love it if those harboring the better solutions would generously share with the rest of us the “right” way to go about this offseason.

Sign players for more than one year deals. Bet on success, not failure. But if every year you fill your holes with one year deals, you have the same holes again. Or, I guess we can be happy with constant failure. That's also an option. Plenty of people have laid out their plans on this very site.

[darin617]

The smart play now is not really a popular play for the Twins. That would to basically do nothing right now and wait for the big FA's to sign and then take a couple of chances on guys desperate to land a contract and flip them at the trade deadline or earlier.

 

But, please don't sign any guys after Spring Training starts.

[Wizard11]

Sign players for more than one year deals. Bet on success, not failure. But if every year you fill your holes with one year deals, you have the same holes again. Or, I guess we can be happy with constant failure. That's also an option. Plenty of people have laid out their plans on this very site.

As stated above, I would love to hear specific plans. Sign “who” for multi year deals? Addison Reed and Jason Castro were multi year commitments by this front office. They didn’t seem to fare any better than the one year players. I understand your frustration and share it. I would just really like to hear some actionable ideas if not a 3 year plan

[S.]

 

There are legitimate superstars and stars in this farm system. Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, maybe Graterol (gonna need more proof before I label him superstar future) and I think Rooker, Diaz, Tyler Wells will be stars. I get the strategy instead of chasing shiny pennies looking to do it today. This COULD be a situation where a true rebuilding and actual successful development of a team occurs.

Sano and Buxton were also considered to be legitimate superstars in our farm system a few years ago, and where are we now? Lots of stars in the minors don't become stars in the major leagues. Or don't become stars in the major leagues for many years. And the longer they take to develop, the older our current "core" becomes, and the more money they require, and the more of them leave in free agency. 

 

It seems like a lot of people (not you personally) will bring up not wanting to sign other good players to multi year deals in fear of blocking some prospect who might be here in a year. Or 2 years. Or 3 years. Or might never be above replacement level. Or might not even stick in the majors. Having too many good players is really not an issue. If you suddenly find yourself flush with multiple high quality players for the same position, then trade one to fill other needs. Too many good players at a position is a "problem" I'd love to have instead of a bunch of positions without any good players. 

[Mike Sixel]

As stated above, I would love to hear specific plans. Sign “who” for multi year deals? Addison Reed and Jason Castro were multi year commitments by this front office. They didn’t seem to fare any better than the one year players. I understand your frustration and share it. I would just really like to hear some actionable ideas if not a 3 year plan

The site is littered with people's specific plans. You want a random poster to lay out a three year plan? I'm sure someone will, maybe. Well, they've been in charge for three years.... How's it going? How long until fans should expect winning at a high level? I said I'd give them three years to improve the major league team. Not one player they've added to the major league roster is signed past this year. So far, not impressed. YMMV, of course, and that's cool with me. But I'm not laying out a three year plan.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Winston Smith]

27 years, one playoff series win and 6 playoff games won. I'm getting way to old for more wait until next year.

Building something requires that you add some players that could be around to build with. All these one year contracts make no sense if you are trying to build something long term.

Next winter what do they do about starting pitching when they start with Berrios and ? 

Looks to me like the marching orders are keep the payroll way down and no long term contracts. Spend the money on radio stations, malls or car dealerships instead.

[Guest]

From the article: "To their credit, the Twins have been proactive in addressing their needs this offseason. Already they have filled their two clearest positional vacancies. Granted, they've done so by gathering up castoffs non-tendered by other organizations, but C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop are hardly scraps. They're legitimate starters and intriguing flyers for a rebuilding team."

 

I think ownership should simply rename their team, "The Intriguing Flyers." That has been their go-to roster move for a decade or more.

 

A couple of weeks ago, when people were still talking about the Twins having $60 million or so to spend this offseason to reach the $128 million level of 2018, I predicted it would be more like $100-105 million. Now, it looks like it will be closer to $85 mil than $105 mil.

 

What a crock.

 

And to consider it defensible, as a fan, is nothing short of being an enabler.

 

Going hard after a corner IF and a middle IF with real upside, on a multi-year deal, along with one SP with at least a realistic #2 potential, then picking up a couple of decent relief arms, wouldn't have been unrealistic and would absolutely NOT have jeopardized their precious "core" of young players.

 

2 infielders out of other teams' dumpsters and now we aren't allowed to expect anything to speak of for top half of the rotation help?

 

Schoop and Cron were decent pickups IF your intent was merely to add fallback guys in case your December-January efforts to obtain better options don't pan out. But we all know, now, that's not the plan.

 

 

[Cody30]

I don't necessarily mind the strategy, and I think part of the strategy is to see how "their" prospects progress. The wave of Buxton, Sano, and Kepler has been a disappointment save for a few month of 2017. However, I do lament that this "rebuild" is going on year 9 and it seems like we are always at the same spot each offseason. Not quite ready to seriously contend, but too much promise to blow things up. I wish their supplemental moves weren't so subtle, such as one year deals for guys needing a rebound. Someone like Andrew McCutchen I think would be a great fit. A clear leader, a mentor for the young outfielders (especially Buxton) and it would give the team so credibility league wide. Perhaps working a trade for Carlos Santana would be a good move as well, and I think that could be done by moving Jake Cave and a prospect or two. 

[tvagle]

So rather than just voice my feelings on yet another "Wait Until You See These Young Guys We Got Coming Up" season...

 

Filed under "Here's a Thought" knowing full well the opinions on Machado signing with the Twins have been discussed ad nauseam (and which I agree is a pipe dream) here's a look at what could happen should he sign, just to spite all of us mighty spiters

 

But first let me try to explain things happening in the hopes to avoid too many questioning replies

 

1) Attempt was made to keep 2019 payroll at $115M - Why you may ask? Because it's less than last year and leaves some room for adjustments to stay below $120M (my hypothetical 2019 max payroll)

 

2) This version focuses on everything but Pitching - Why no Pitchers other than 2019? Because I just got too bogged down trying to guesstimate the position players that I decided to leave the pitchers for another day and because it might irritate some to no end

 

3) Machado Signing - I'll buy into slight collusion and believe that neither the Yankees, nor any other team, will go to $300M...therefore, the Twins will and include an Opt-Out after 3 seasons...Manny can leap frog Harper and Trout in '22 to be highest paid player ever...if he doesn't Opt Out it's 10 years $30M per and he can move to 1st/DH/Mauer's every third day off status for the last 4 years

 

Machado plays SS for 2 years, slides to 3B when Lewis arrives and Opts Out after that season (it's my pipe dream so there you go)

 

And for those ready to say he won't sign here for $30M? I've left that extra $5M per year for you so it can be 10 years at $35M with the Opt Out after 3 years

 

4) Machado is the only Position Player addition in this BluePrint...the rest is up to the young talent in the system to produce (and by that I mean play well enough to hold down a roster spot or be spun for pitching)

 

5) All salary figures are my guesstimations based on a rough understanding of recent ARB and FA signings and do NOT take into account inflation(think of it as what they'd sign for this year as a FA) or the market crashing...more

 

Here's the Position Player Rosters:

 

 

Dollars spent on Position Players per year

 

2019 $65.901M

2020 $60.400M

2021 $70.700M

2022 $45.050M

2023 $55.900M

2024 $68.200M

 

I'll keep the same dollar figures when I try to fit in pitchers

 

Position Notes

 

C - Castro - Garver - Rortvedt

1B - 1 year of Cron - Rooker then Rooker/Larnach split duties

2B - Schoop to Gordon he sticks at 2B

3B - Sano for 2 years - Machado moves to 3B (opts out after season) - Miranda

SS - Machado for 2 years - Lewis takes over

LF - Eddie is the Core...signs 5 year $100M in '22

CF - Buxton figures it out...6 year $150M in '23

RF - Kepler for 2 years - Kirilloff takes over (could be sooner)

DH - Polanco for 2 years (or some combo-Bob of players) - Sano for 1 year - Larnach/Rooker

Bench C - Astudillo for a year then Rortvedt then Grz/Hamilton (or you're favorite young catcher)

Bench INF - Adrianza (unless too spendy) - Arrarez for 2 years - Helman for 2 years (or you're favorite young INF)

Bench OF - Cave until he's too expensive for a backup -Wade 2 years - Keirsey (or you're favorite young OF)

 

What about Javier/Baddoo/Jeffers/Celestino/Severino/....

 

Sounds like awesome trade opportunities to me...or as stated above (or you're favorite young player) could fill in

 

So there you have another Manny to Minny BluePrint and my way of saying...Meh to Standing Pat

 

Look what happened when 11 Standing Pats tried to finish a football game

[cjvirnig]

Even if the Twins are basically done adding position players, there's no reason why they couldn't (or shouldn't) use some of their excess payroll money on a couple big name relief pitchers.  Also, it's been extremely disappointing to see that the Twins do not seem to have any interest in entering the JT Realmuto sweepstakes.  Certainly they'd have to gauge his interest and whether he'd be willing to sign an extension, but addressing the catcher position and the bullpen are things that could be done while still engaging in a mostly "stand pat" strategy everywhere else. 

[Twodogs]

Bottom line is they need one good starter and one good reliever added to this roster to compete. The lineup; eh I could look at it as the glass is half full or the glass is half empty; but instead I choose to look at it as, "hey, the glass (is only) half empty." Which means there is still half to go. Anyway, imagine if the Young guns all step forward and have a consistent season, not great or spectacular, but consistent. Everyone of them have shown flashes of greatness, so we all know that good is possible.

 

1. CF Buxton .265 .320 25 2B's 18 Hrs 90 runs 35 SB

2. SS Polanco .275 .310 25 2Bs 15 Hrs 80 runs 65 RBIs 20 SB

3. 3B Sano .250 .330 25 2Bs 30 Hrs 80 runs 90 RBIs

4. LF Rosario .280 .320 30 2Bs 25 Hrs 85 runs 80 RBIs

5. 1B Cron .250 .315 30 2Bs 20 Hrs 75 runs 75 RBIs

6. 2B Schoop .270 .300 25 2Bs 25 Hrs 80 runs 70 RBIs

7. RF Kepler .260 .330 30 2Bs 20 Hrs 75 runs 65 RBIs

8. DH Austin .250 .300 20 2Bs 25 Hrs 60 runs 70 RBIs

9. Castro/Garver .240 .290 25 2Bs 20 Hrs 60 runs 60 RBIs

 

Rest of bench combined 100 runs total. I think that would put the lineup at about 775 runs. Modestly better than last year at somewhere around 740 runs or so. It would probably be enough to win 10 - 12 more games with the right pitching. Early on it seemed like the Twins lost a lot of 1 run games. These are all potential seasons for these guys and hardly any of those seasons get them on the all star team.