Way too Early 2019 Roster - Quick Fix for the Offense

[tvagle]

After watching zero meaningful offensive output for...well most of the season here's a High Risk attempt to jump start the offense in 2019 (note could be done this July if more prospects are sacrificed)

 

 

Here's how to get it done

 

RE-SIGN CURRENT TWINS

Mauer 2 years and negotiate the $$...for place holder I'll use $7M/year for 2 years

Escobar $10M/year for 3 years

Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano ARB1 guys estimating $2M-$3M for each of them

 

FREE AGENTS

Pick your Closer/Setup Dude - Cody Allen $39M/3years

Machado - Open up the wallet and pay so much he can't say no - $30M/year for 10 years - $35M for 8

  Guy will be 25...fits current core's age and plays everyday, maybe he'll be a good role model

  Worst case he's Victor Martinez for the last 3 years

 

TRADES

Quit wishing and hoping and dreaming that a semi-bargain catcher will come through...it's gonna cost but in this dream Falvine are gonna get Realmuto

I'd hope including Romero with Gordon and/or another arm or bat should work (wouldn't want to but gotta spend to get)

 

LINEUP

Polanco

Rosario

Machado

Realmuto

Escobar

Sano

Kepler

Mauer

Buxton

 

STARTERS (If they've been keeping this offense in games this year why not roll with them again)

Berrios

Gibson

Pineda - Lance Lynn replacement for a year unless great

Odorizzi

Mejia - Slegers - Gonsalves - Whoever has options left next year

 

BULLPEN

Finally we just ride with the young arms...i'd even let Pressly ride off in the sunset

Pick a FA Closer

 

Can't be tied to anyone other than Berrios and the Ed's from this season...want to part ways with Mauer? use the $7M elsewhere that works too, I think the Twins will re-sign him for however long he'd like at a hometown price

Duffey/May in place of Pressly saves $3M

Adrianza too spendy in ARB slide in a $1M utility guy

Kepler/Rosario needed to get Realmuto...then move Rooker/Wade up

 

If Falvine are the Wonder Twins it's time for them to Activate Their Powers and do something to make their mark

 

This post brought to you by the 2005 Cream Reunion Concert...Clapton playing the same as 40 years earlier??

[Mike Sixel]

I like a lot of this, other than Mauer. He's done, imo. Thanks!

[Jerr]

No 10 year contracts to anyone!

 

[NapoleonComplex]

The only way the Twins will ever land a FA like Machado is if we egregiously overpay. It ain't my money ... DO IT!!!

[Squirrel]

I’ve actually made similar comments. I think it would take 3-4 pieces but that the pieces are large and costly. I think they could do this and still have a reasonable payroll. But if I’m Machado, I’m not sure the money is what signs him and I think it would take more than 30mil/yr. and I don’t see this FO/owner okaying a 10 yr contract. But, I still think this is very doable without completely bloating payroll a la the Yankees.

[snap4birds]

 

But, I still think this is very doable without completely bloating payroll a la the Yankees.

Looking at the chart, I'd guess the "payroll bloat" would start in 2020 trying to re-stock the starting rotation.  Would definitely need Romero, Gonsalves, et al to eat up some of those spots.  

[yarnivek1972]

I think it is pretty likely the Indians resign or QO Cody Allen. He’s one of the only good relievers they have. And Miller is a FA.

[lukeduke1980]

This was fun - great work!

[mngopherguy]

1. I don't trust the owners to get to the 132 million you want.

 

2. I'm not spending 25% of my budget on one player.  That's asking for clubhouse issues at some point.      It isn't fantasy baseball to the Twins.

 

3. No 10 year contracts period.

 

4. I'm not trading Romero for a catcher.  

 

5. The pitching isn't good enough to make it past the central.  Besides Berrios, not one starter is a guy        who can win in the playoffs.  

 

6. Cleveland is going to resign Allen.  Maybe you can find a closer.

 

7. No bench bat.  If you have Cave, you don't need Granite.  

 

Regardless of my disagreements, it was a fun read.  

[gunnarthor]

Machado is a pipe dream but it's a good pipe dream. Amazing how much better he makes our lineup. 

 

My guess is the FO isn't going to make these sort of longterm plans until they see more of what they have in Sano and Buxton. If they can come back after the all-star break and put up a decent August/Sept run and give the FO reason to think they can be counted on for a full season, I think they might make those sort of aggressive moves. But I think it's unlikely that they would do so and we're more likely to see payroll drop to the bottom 7 or 8 team range.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

After watching zero meaningful offensive output for...well most of the season here's a High Risk attempt to jump start the offense in 2019 (note could be done this July if more prospects are sacrificed)

 

 

 

Here's how to get it done

 

RE-SIGN CURRENT TWINS

Mauer 2 years and negotiate the $$...for place holder I'll use $7M/year for 2 years

Escobar $10M/year for 3 years

Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano ARB1 guys estimating $2M-$3M for each of them

 

FREE AGENTS

Pick your Closer/Setup Dude - Cody Allen $39M/3years

Machado - Open up the wallet and pay so much he can't say no - $30M/year for 10 years - $35M for 8

Guy will be 25...fits current core's age and plays everyday, maybe he'll be a good role model

Worst case he's Victor Martinez for the last 3 years

 

TRADES

Quit wishing and hoping and dreaming that a semi-bargain catcher will come through...it's gonna cost but in this dream Falvine are gonna get Realmuto

I'd hope including Romero with Gordon and/or another arm or bat should work (wouldn't want to but gotta spend to get)

 

LINEUP

Polanco

Rosario

Machado

Realmuto

Escobar

Sano

Kepler

Mauer

Buxton

 

STARTERS (If they've been keeping this offense in games this year why not roll with them again)

Berrios

Gibson

Pineda - Lance Lynn replacement for a year unless great

Odorizzi

Mejia - Slegers - Gonsalves - Whoever has options left next year

 

BULLPEN

Finally we just ride with the young arms...i'd even let Pressly ride off in the sunset

Pick a FA Closer

 

Can't be tied to anyone other than Berrios and the Ed's from this season...want to part ways with Mauer? use the $7M elsewhere that works too, I think the Twins will re-sign him for however long he'd like at a hometown price

Duffey/May in place of Pressly saves $3M

Adrianza too spendy in ARB slide in a $1M utility guy

Kepler/Rosario needed to get Realmuto...then move Rooker/Wade up

 

If Falvine are the Wonder Twins it's time for them to Activate Their Powers and do something to make their mark

 

This post brought to you by the 2005 Cream Reunion Concert...Clapton playing the same as 40 years earlier??

Excellent work! Thanks for pulling this together!

 

All of it looks realistic on an individual player level, but not for the Twins. I highly doubt the Pohlads ok another 130m payroll after this debacle. My guess is payroll next year will be around 110m. My other guess is ‘20 is when they’ll make a push again

[yarnivek1972]

Why would the Twins pay Mauer $7 mil to hit 8th in likely fewer than 120 games?

 

That is not wise usage of limited payroll dollars or limited roster spots nor does it maximize talent. Mauer has one season since 2013 with an OPS over .752.

 

It seems hypocritcal to me when some criticize the FO for foolish spending on retreads or washed up vets but yet are willing to fork over almost double the avg MLB salary to a guy that has averaged barely 2 bWAR the last 5 seasons.

 

It is time for Mauer to retire IMO. If he doesn’t feel that way, I suspect he will after all the offers he doesn’t get this offseason. There simply is no spot on the modern roster for a part time player that doesn’t produce. No way any other team gives him $7 mil per year. To do what? Odds are most every team already has a better first baseman/DH at the MLB level or one chomping at the bit or both.

[ChrisKnutson]

CF- Byron Buxton (OF)

C- J.T. Realmuto (C/1st)

SS- Manny Machado (SS/3rd)(200mil/8yrs)

LF- Eddie Rosario (OF/DH)

3rd- Eduardo Escobar (2nd/SS/3rd/OF)

DH- Kennys Vargas (1st/DH)

1st- Hanley Ramirez (1st/DH) (1 year deal?)

2nd- Jorge Polanco (2nd/SS)

RF- Max Kepler (OF)

 

Bench:

Lamonte Wade (OF)

Willians Astudillo (3rd/2nd/OF/C)

Ehire Adrianza (SS/3rd/2nd/OF/1st)

Mitch Garver (C/1st/DH/OF)

 

Realmuto <—> Gordon/Gonsalves/Thorpe/Rortvedt

 

-DFA Grossman

-Trade Jason Castro by the end of ST

-Trade Sano to St. Louis for Jordan Hicks (SP/RP)

[alarp33]

"Quick fix" sign one of the best players in baseball and trade for the best catcher in baseball, easy!

[jud6312]

 

CF- Byron Buxton (OF)
C- J.T. Realmuto (C/1st)
SS- Manny Machado (SS/3rd)(200mil/8yrs)
LF- Eddie Rosario (OF/DH)
3rd- Eduardo Escobar (2nd/SS/3rd/OF)
DH- Kennys Vargas (1st/DH)
1st- Hanley Ramirez (1st/DH) (1 year deal?)
2nd- Jorge Polanco (2nd/SS)
RF- Max Kepler (OF)

Bench:
Lamonte Wade (OF)
Willians Astudillo (3rd/2nd/OF/C)
Ehire Adrianza (SS/3rd/2nd/OF/1st)
Mitch Garver (C/1st/DH/OF)

Realmuto <—> Gordon/Gonsalves/Thorpe/Rortvedt

-DFA Grossman
-Trade Jason Castro by the end of ST
-Trade Sano to St. Louis for Jordan Hicks (SP/RP)

4 of their probably Top-10 prospects for 2 years of control on a catcher?

 

Sano for an unproven bullpen arm with questionable control?

 

Also, as much as I'd love Machado, $200 million over 8 years isn't going to get the job done.

[alarp33]

 

4 of their probably Top-10 prospects for 2 years of control on a catcher?

 

 

4 of their top 10 prospects, which isn't even close to enough to get that deal done anyways

[ChrisKnutson]

4 of their probably Top-10 prospects for 2 years of control on a catcher?

 

Sano for an unproven bullpen arm with questionable control?

 

Also, as much as I'd love Machado, $200 million over 8 years isn't going to get the job done.

- Remember, not all prospects are a given, so we shouldn’t be afraid to make a deal for the best catcher in baseball. The only “untouchables” should be Lewis, Romero, Graterol, and Kirilloff.

 

- Also, I believe this team can win with or without Sano in the lineup, so if we can get someone (or prospects) just as talented, I’d say go for it, because I just think a change of scenery would be best for the team and Sano himself.

 

- I’m guessing we will see how much Machado values playing SS, because most of his “likely destinations” would rather play him at 3rd, so maybe he takes a “discount” of 200 million to play SS everyday. But if not, then I’d be more than ok with going all in on Manny, by making him our only free agent signing in the offseason.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

"Quick fix" sign one of the best players in baseball and trade for the best catcher in baseball, easy!

step 3, profit

[tvagle]

 

Why would the Twins pay Mauer $7 mil to hit 8th in likely fewer than 120 games?

That is not wise usage of limited payroll dollars or limited roster spots nor does it maximize talent. Mauer has one season since 2013 with an OPS over .752.

It seems hypocritcal to me when some criticize the FO for foolish spending on retreads or washed up vets but yet are willing to fork over almost double the avg MLB salary to a guy that has averaged barely 2 bWAR the last 5 seasons.

It is time for Mauer to retire IMO. If he doesn’t feel that way, I suspect he will after all the offers he doesn’t get this offseason. There simply is no spot on the modern roster for a part time player that doesn’t produce. No way any other team gives him $7 mil per year. To do what? Odds are most every team already has a better first baseman/DH at the MLB level or one chomping at the bit or both.

As I stated just a placeholder...I would expect him to want to play again and if he does the Twins will find a way to pay him...maybe it's $4M/yr for 2 years

[Shaitan]

"Quick fix" sign one of the best players in baseball and trade for the best catcher in baseball, easy!

 

It worked for NYY throughout the 90s.

[Doctor Wu]

When the options are guys like Morrison and Vargas, I'd actually prefer to have Mauer back for another year or two. Yeah, his best days are behind him, and he has no power to speak of, but he can still get on base and he fields his position well. Even with this new front office, I don't see them getting rid of an icon like Mauer. Now, if he feels burned out and/or not producing up to his standards, I could see him retiring. Otherwise, bring him back. The other ideas (Machado, Realmuto) are enticing and exciting to think about, but I just don't think they are realistic.

[Mr. Brooks]

When the options are guys like Morrison and Vargas, I'd actually prefer to have Mauer back for another year or two. Yeah, his best days are behind him, and he has no power to speak of, but he can still get on base and he fields his position well. Even with this new front office, I don't see them getting rid of an icon like Mauer. Now, if he feels burned out and/or not producing up to his standards, I could see him retiring. Otherwise, bring him back. The other ideas (Machado, Realmuto) are enticing and exciting to think about, but I just don't think they are realistic.

There are plenty of other options aside from LoMo and Vargas.

Free agent 1B are pretty easy to find.

[Tomj14]

 

There are plenty of other options aside from LoMo and Vargas.
Free agent 1B are pretty easy to find.

The free agent first basemen don't look so good for next year.

Mauer, Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez

[tvagle]

I know some like to think that every decision made by an organization is based on statistical fact and conducted in a data-bubble...truth is it's not

 

Mauer will be an icon signing...local boy...MVP...face of the franchise...Well Played Mauer and my guess is he'll finish his career a one team guy. Hope is that it's for as little as possible agreed

 

As for the realistic-ness of Realmuto and Machado my point is both are bold moves at a time when it might be possible to pull them off...I'm fine with a Jack Morris move for Machado, OVERPAY for a couple years and a chance at the Big Ring...ask what it will take and give him a couple Million more

 

Prospects are just that, Prospective Players that people hope turn out to be something special...for every Berrios there's three-times as many Willie Banks...Frankie Rodriquez...types that never do pan out

 

Just tired of pushing the Window/Goal Posts back another year and another year and another year

[ChrisKnutson]

The free agent first basemen don't look so good for next year.

Mauer, Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez

You forgot Hanley Ramirez.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

As for the realistic-ness of Realmuto and Machado my point is both are bold moves at a time when it might be possible to pull them off...I'm fine with a Jack Morris move for Machado, OVERPAY for a couple years and a chance at the Big Ring...ask what it will take and give him a couple Million more

 

 

 

So in this scenario Manny Machado is basically going to have his choice of teams, and he's going to give the Minnesota Twins the exact number needed and allow them to make the final offer? And the MN Twins are going to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, etc?

[IndianaTwin]

Did I miss it, or are you missing Jason Castro?

 

[IndianaTwin]

Thinking about a starting staff of...

• Berrios
• Gibson
• Pineda
• Odorizzi
• Romero/Gonsalves/Mejia/Slegers

One can never have too many starters, plus Pineda will be entering his first full season in a couple years and the No. 5 options are still young. So I wouldn't mind another proven veteran on a one-year deal, a la what we might have gotten with a full spring training of Lynn.

 

At present, my first choice is:

• Consider picking up the option on Ervin Santana. Given how close we seem to be to his return, we'll have more than two months of evaluation. If those two months go well, I'd think about taking the additional year. I recognize that it's a slight overpay, but I think there's huge benefits in having a known quantity, and it continues to give flexibility with the one-year deal. 

So while we're at it, I'll offer a bullpen option to go along with your returnees of:

• Hildy
• Busenitz
• Pressly
• Rogers
• Reed
• Moya
• May and the herd of guys in Rochester

Let's look for an economical option with a K/BB ratio over 3.0, a K/9 over 10, and an ERA+ of 140+. Which leads us to:

•  Another year of the Fernando Rodney Experience. A couple of those blown saves have really hurt, but I don't yet get the eagerness to trade him or assume that he shouldn't be back, when he could be picked up for $4.25MM. 

I know that all looks like just re-upping this year's YTD statistically average staff, but it's not. It drops Lynn's ERA+ of 80 and miscellaneous pieces of Hughes, etc., replacing them with Pineda and Santana and a year of experience for the young bunch. To me, the list above is an above-average staff.

 

The other thing all that does is lock in the salary values on the pitchers, freeing up the front office's Daytimers in time to set up a tent in Manny's front yard. 

[Doctor Wu]

 

You forgot Hanley Ramirez.

And speaking of Chris Carter ... did any team pick him up, even as a AAA signing, after the Twins released him?