The Lost Year - August 1st Roster

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Even though it’s still the middle of May, I’m going to go out on a limb (more like a twig) and say this is a lost year for the Twins. I do not see any way the team recovers and makes a playoff run (let alone a run at .500). That’s an important distinction. To me, anything short of playoff contention should warrant a massive sell off of the veteran players.

 

The beauty is that the major league roster does already have a number of young players in place, so a completer roster turnover (and total plunging in W-L record) should not be expected. Plus, the W-L record can’t get much worse.

 

So I thought I’d take a stab at what a “turned over” roster might look like. At the latest, I would hope to see this 25-man by August 1st following the non-waiver trade deadline. First, here are the moves that would make the promotions possible. For all these, the value of the trade returns won’t be overhwelming, but given the chance for top prospect promotion, who cares).

 

Trade: Decent return possible
Eduardo Perez
Fernando Abad

 

Trade: Return unknown
Ricky Nolasco: Flashes of good stuff shouldn’t warrant a place in the rotation and future plans, but could get at least some return value.
Trevor Plouffe: This should have happened in December. He is not good enough to block the move of Miguel Sano back to 3B. Plus, Max Kepler’s promotion would only add weight to Sano’s move back to the infield. Plouffe’s value is way overweighted in Twins country. “He’s our cleanup hitter.” Response, “well yeah, and the team’s 8-25.”

 

Released (more than likely)
Kurt Suzuki: His extension at the 2014 trade deadline was absurd given his over-performance during the first half of the year and his presumed trade value at the time. Thanks Terry!
Kevin Jepson: (BTW – Chih Wei Hu’s 2016 AA Stats: 5 GS, 1-0 (W-L), 26.1 IP, 2 ER, 0.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 32 K, 7 BB, 0 HR)

 

Demoted to AAA (ASAP)
Eddie Rosario: He must learn the strike zone. I would love to see improvement and him pushing for a starting spot with the Twins come 2017. Also, Rochester’s OF could be an interesting one with Rosario pairing with ABW II (struggling now but he still has a ton of potential) and Travis Harrison (whose promotion should come at some point during the season).

 

Also hopefully in Rochester
Hopefully either Stuart Turner or Mitch Garver earn a promotion. A good half year in AAA this year will hopefully set up the possibility of one of them seeing a late call up in 2017.

 

The Twins Aust 1st Roster (IMO)

 

RF – Oswaldo Arcia: He’s shown some slight improvements. Power LH bat means he stays in the lineup.
CF – Byron Buxton: I’m excited to see him with 2 months of AAA seasoning.
LF – Max Kepler: Ditto with Buxton.
SS – Jorge Polanco: I’ll live with the errors. Let him get his at bats and the Twins should find a place for him.
3B – Miguel Sano: I see the rest of the season going more like 2015 for him. No brainer.
2B – Brian Dozier: He can’t be this bad, right? Given his recent phenomenal half-years and contract (thanks Terry!), he’ll stay with the Twins and will hopefully improve. He should not be guaranteed a spot, though, over the next 3-4 years like was thought recently.
1B/DH – Joe Mauer: No brainer. It’s nice to see he’s having a good year. All the “greats” being thrown around are a bit off base. It’s a product of the rest of the veterans stinking it up I think.
C – John Ryan Murphy: Oh yes! Terry Ryan can’t hide from the trade forever. He’s young and plays a primo position. He should play out the rest of the year for good or for bad.
DH/1B  – Byung Ho Park: No brainer. He’s exceeded expectations. I’m excited to continue  to watch him play.

 

UTIL – Eduardo Escobar: I can see plenty of spot starts among the three IFspots. I think he’s somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 numbers. 
UTIL – James Beresford: Deserves the call up and a look as a utility guy.
4th OF – Danny Santana: He is who he is at this point. He should be a pinch runner and late inning defensive replacement for Arcia. One start every 7-10 days or so would be fine.
BC – Juan Centeno: Because there needs to be one and because David Murphy retired and John Hicks is with the Tigers organization now. Thanks Terry!

 

SP – Jose Berrios: Nothing left to prove in AAA. His starts will continue to be “must watch TV” in a season where not much else is with the Twins.
SP – Tyler Duffey: He has shown he belongs in an ML rotation.
SP – Ervin Santana: He’s in because of his contract and because Gonsalves and company are at least another year+ away.
SP – Kyle Gibson: Hopefully the warm weather helps his stuff. I think he’s a solid #4/5 guy. He’s young, controllable, and should stay.

 

SP or RP – Phil Hughes: Unfortunately I think he’s untradeable. And he’ll probably stay in the rotation (though I can see him pushed to the pen for either Meyer or May) given his contract. Another absurd extension in 2014. Thanks Terry!
SP Or RP – Alex Meyer: He could be a starter. The Twins need to MAKE A DECISION AND STICK TO IT! On one hand I’m hoping he’ll be a starter. On the other, I think he could also be a dominant reliever. If he’s in the pen, he should get nothing but high-leverage work.
SP or RP – Trevor May: Ditto with Meyer. His starting prospects are nice, but thoughts of a dominant May-Meyer 8th/9th inning duo for the next 4 years+ is perhaps more intriguing.

 

RP (long guy)  – Taylor Rogers: Again, the Twins need to MAKE A DECISION AND STICK TO IT!
RP – Glen Perkins: Untradeable. Terry blew his chance to get value for him. He should not just be handed the closer role upon return. I see him more at this point as a LH specialist. Free up the late innings for the younger guys.
RP – Michael Tonkin: Happy he’s been good this year. No brainer.
RP – JT Chargois: He just got called up to AAA. If he performs, there’d be no one blocking another promotion.
RP – Ryan Pressly: He’s shown decent stuff and the Reed/Burdi/Melotakis/Williams set in AA hasn’t really produced a replacement candidate yet.

 

I’d love to get some feedback on this roster and the moves to be made yet this year. So who’s on board with the fire sale?

 

[sane17]

Trade: Decent return possible

Eduardo Perez

Eduardo Perez = Eduardo Escobar?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Suzuki won't be released this year, I guarantee that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Eduardo Perez = Eduardo Escobar?

Nunez, he has Escobar on the bench.

[Rosterman]

Yes, Rosario probably needs more seasoning. Yet we give Kepler and Buxton lots of at bats to see how they fail in Year One of their major league life. You could argue a need for Sano just to go down.

 

I see 8 names on the Rochester roster that could play in the Big Leagues for the Twins into the 2017 season. And 20 names for equal consideration in Lookouts land. Of course, there are only so many 40-man spots. The Twins will need at least 5-6 open spots for those Lookout prospects.

 

So for August first, you have opened up six spots, we currently have one open, we have a couple of bullpen arms that could be jettisoned. SO lots of space here. Do we add people like Burdi, Reed, Bard, Stewart, WImmers before the season ends. Is Jason Wheeler a return-to-the-40 man roster prospect? What does Beresford give us that getting rid of Nunez (unless he gives us a decent return) doesn't...and is Jamie in the long-range plans...would be be a backup in 2017? Think probably not.

 

We also have a decision to make on Vargas. Do we bring up Walker? Does that make Arcia tradebait?

 

It will be an interesting July to see what teams may make a dumpster diving run at the Twins for our old expensive pieces. That's the pain of the trio of starters, they still have another year or more of pay coming their way.

[Riverbrian]

I don't know about August...

 

But Right Now...

 

Give Polanco some playing time... nobody has to sit extensively to accomodate. Just rotate Polanco in with Nunez, Plouffe and Dozier until Escobar comes off the DL and then you can send Polanco back down if you'd like. 

 

I could justify sitting Polanco in April but not now. 

 

And...

 

Keep Berrios and Duffey in the rotation. I don't care who comes out of the rotation to make the room for them. 

 

As the months go by... Look for your chances to promote youth to the big squad and let them play when they get here. Those bullpen arms are probably the first priority in my mind to get ready for 2017. 

 

 

[bluechipper]

I hope Nick Burdi is a part of the bullpen this year too.

[70charger]

A few unwarranted barbs in there, but I generally agree with this trajectory. I would make a few changes:

 

1. Keep Suzuki to play out his contract, but keep him under his vesting threshold. Should be easy.

1a. Juan Centeno can stay up until John Ryan Murphy gets his groove back in AAA. I doubt that either Garver or Turner force the issue from AA, but if they do, so much the better.

2. Keep Nunez over Beresford unless you can get some actual value. A C-prospect in A-ball just isn't gonna cut. Not when Beresford is the other option. Let him get his cup of coffee (finally!) when rosters expand in September.

3. I'm not sure what to do with the pitcher situation. I think Hughes has a ticket to the bullpen either way, but Meyer or May? Maybe we go with their own expressed preferences. May starts, Meyer relieves. And yes, stick with that decision for the rest of the year.

4. I wouldn't be married to Taylor Rodgers in this year's bullpen, but I'm fine with him there now. Longer term, he's definitely a reliever.

[Thrylos]

This particular team up there looks way too much like the existing team.  Not enough change.  Changes that need to happen (in this order) :

 

1. Hire a president of baseball operations from outside the organization

2. Fire Brunansky

3. Trade:

 

Both Santanas, Dozier (I am not convinced that he is not part of the problem here), Plouffe, Nolasco, Perkins, Jepsen, Abad, Nunez

 

4. Demote/Cut:

 

Mastroianni, Suzuki, Kintzler, Anyone above who is not traded and has less than $10M owed

 

5. Move to the Pen:

 

Hughes

 

Rotation:

 

Meyer, Berrios, Gibson, May, Wheeler

 

Pen:

 

Hughes, Pressly, Chargois, Rogers, Darnell (*Melotakis when healthy) , Tonkin (*Burdi when healthy), Duffey

 

C: Murphy, 1B: Park, 2B: Rosario, SS: Polanco, 3B: Sano, LF: Palka/Kepler, CF Buxton/Kepler, RF Arcia/Kepler

 

Bench: Kepler, Escobar, Centeno, Beresford

[bluechipper]

 

This particular team up there looks way too much like the existing team.  Not enough change.  Changes that need to happen (in this order) :

 

3. Trade:

 

Both Santanas, Dozier (I am not convinced that he is not part of the problem here), Plouffe, Nolasco, Perkins, Jepsen, Abad, Nunez

I'm not on board with trading Ervin Santana. I think it's a good idea to have at least one veteran in the rotation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I hope Nick Burdi is a part of the bullpen this year too.

Unlikely.  Burdi is on the DL at AA and not even set to begin throwing again for at least another week, and still has a lot of unanswered performance questions.  And he doesn't require a 40-man roster spot until after 2017.

[Thrylos]

 

I'm not on board with trading Ervin Santana. I think it's a good idea to have at least one veteran in the rotation.

 

Why?  The 1993 Braves did not have anyone older than 27 and turned up ok.  Gibson is the veteran

[bluechipper]

 

Unlikely.  Burdi is on the DL at AA and not even set to begin throwing again for at least another week, and still has a lot of unanswered performance questions.  And he doesn't require a 40-man roster spot until after 2017.

As long as he's pitching sometime relatively soon, and pitching well as the season moves along, he should be up with the Twins this year. The 40 man issue shouldn't matter if the Twins make some moves to open some spots.

[bluechipper]

 

Why?

I would like to think it would help the younger guys with having a guy who has been around for a while. Plus, Santana can still give you quality innings.

[alarp33]

 

I would like to think it would help the younger guys with having a guy who has been around for a while. Plus, Santana can still give you quality innings.

 

I'd be fine keeping Santana around because he's probably one of the best 5 Starters this year and next.  I think the "veteran" aspect is a load of crap though

[rghrbek]

 

Rotation:

 

Meyer, Berrios, Gibson, May, Wheeler

 

 

 

 

 

Wheeler?   Is this the same Wheeler who we took of the 40 man and passed through waivers?   The soft tossing lefty?   Don't we have guys like this in Dean, Albers, and Rogers?

 

Why are you advocating for Wheeler?

[mazeville]

Twins also need to consider trading Dozier (insert Polanco) and Kyle Gibson (he'd generate a good return assuming he returns to form).

[bluechipper]

 

I'd be fine keeping Santana around because he's probably one of the best 5 Starters this year and next.  I think the "veteran" aspect is a load of crap though

It's called the Torii Hunter Effect, and it is real.

[alarp33]

 

It's called the Torii Hunter Effect, and it is real.

 

That's a discussion for another day, but I strongly disagree.  

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Eduardo Perez = Eduardo Escobar?

 

Nope, I meant Eduardo Nunez. I guess I've been watching too much ESPN baseball coverage.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

What does Beresford give us that getting rid of Nunez (unless he gives us a decent return) doesn't...and is Jamie in the long-range plans...would be be a backup in 2017? Think probably not.

 

 

Yep, I was thinking promoting Beresford is reliant on trading Nunez for some value. Or else, like you said, not much changes.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Twins also need to consider trading Dozier (insert Polanco) and Kyle Gibson (he'd generate a good return assuming he returns to form).

 

In a perfect world, Polanco can stick at SS for 2-3 seasons until Nick Gordon gets called up. The Polanco can slide to 2B to replace Dozier.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

A few unwarranted barbs in there, but I generally agree with this trajectory. I would make a few changes:

 

 

Yes, my post was a bit "barby." I was just emphasizing the point that the current roster has a number of examples of Ryan's bad timing (jumping the gun) with player extensions that also show a lack of grasping a larger picture of his team's true talent.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As long as he's pitching sometime relatively soon, and pitching well as the season moves along, he should be up with the Twins this year. The 40 man issue shouldn't matter if the Twins make some moves to open some spots.

I didn't mean to suggest that 40-man space would be an issue.  Just that if Burdi was required to be added after this season anyway, they might add him later just for a few innings in September or whatever, regardless of his minor league performance or how healthy his season is.  Because, they'd have to add him anyway.

 

But without that, I think it would take an exceptional turnaround to get him to Minnesota this year.  No sense getting him up here early if he's not pitching well and there are lingering concerns about his arm.  Of course, if he can address those concerns over the next couple months, that obviously changes things, but that would probably represent an exceptional turnaround from where is at the present moment.

[Thrylos]

 

Wheeler?   Is this the same Wheeler who we took of the 40 man and passed through waivers?   The soft tossing lefty?   Don't we have guys like this in Dean, Albers, and Rogers?

 

Why are you advocating for Wheeler?

 

Wheeler is not soft-tossing His FB is in the low 90s and has better command and control than any of those guys.  He can pitch inside, has 3 fastballs (4-,2-, cutter).  His 4-seamer hits 93 and his cutter 88-89, which is not bad for a cutter.

 

His problem has not been the fastball, but his secondary pitches.  This year they are starting clicking for him can throw them for strikes.  He has been highly effective and is 24.  Averaging about 6.5 IP per start which is close to Berrios' and Meyer's numbers and better than Duffey's.   Plus, the Twins are rebuilding.  They better see what they have in him.  

[Thrylos]

 

In a perfect world, Polanco can stick at SS for 2-3 seasons until Nick Gordon gets called up. The Polanco can slide to 2B to replace Dozier.

 

That's like saying that Ortiz should had replaced Mientkiewicz at first base.  Polanco is the better SS in the long term.

[rghrbek]

 

Wheeler is not soft-tossing His FB is in the low 90s and has better command and control than any of those guys.  He can pitch inside, has 3 fastballs (4-,2-, cutter).  His 4-seamer hits 93 and his cutter 88-89, which is not bad for a cutter.

 

His problem has not been the fastball, but his secondary pitches.  This year they are starting clicking for him can throw them for strikes.  He has been highly effective and is 24.  Averaging about 6.5 IP per start which is close to Berrios' and Meyer's numbers and better than Duffey's.   Plus, the Twins are rebuilding.  They better see what they have in him.  

 

He got shelled pretty good last year and was released and taken off the 40 man right?   Good to know he throws in the 90's.   Still, pretty short sample size this year, I would let him get a few more months under his belt and see if that K/9 rate stays the same (which appears higher than what he has done in the past) or gets better/worse

[Badsmerf]

I thought Gordon was supposed to be the better SS long-term? 

 

This "lost year" is soon going to turn into a "lost decade." 

[mazeville]

 

In a perfect world, Polanco can stick at SS for 2-3 seasons until Nick Gordon gets called up. The Polanco can slide to 2B to replace Dozier.

 

Except they've said repeatedly that Polanco can't stick at short. I'd agree it'd be nice to put him at SS. But if he can't play short, I'd get him at 2B as soon as possible.

[Thrylos]

 

Except they've said repeatedly that Polanco can't stick at short. 

 

Those are the same people who said that:

 

Nishioka is a better SS option than JJ Hardy

The team is better with Sano at RF and Plouffe at 3B

Florimon is a better SS option than Escobar

Santana is a better SS option than Escobar

Mastroianni and Santana are better CF options than Buxton

etc etc etc

 

One at some point needs to quit taking what they say as gospel.