Tyler Duffey

[gopherman23]

He threw his curveball 39.8% of the time last year. That is the highest curveball rate since 2002, for starting pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. Will he be able to keep this up? I worry about his arm health, being that he throws his breaking ball so much.

[DocBauer]

There aren't many SP's who have thrived with only 2 pitches, but there have been a few over the years. Though even those usually dabbled with a 3rd pitch occassionally. While spotting a solid fastball well and having a killer breaking pitch can take you a loooooong way, even a "decent" 3rd pitch would go anow equally long way towards a successful ML future.

 

While we still have a relatively SSS on the ML level,MIT was still 10 GS, or roughly a thI'd of a season. Nothing to sneeze at. Plus, his performance came at the END of the season, in which he narrowly missed 200IP for the first time. Meaning he didn't slow down or collapse in crunch time or after a long season.

 

Further, his milb season stats not only maintain great consistency, but many of his numbers, including SO's, actually got better as he moved up the ladder. That is impressive!

 

I don't know if he is a future #1, #2, or exactly what. But while we have focused so much on the likes of Gibson, Meyer, May, Berrios and others, this young man has quietly snuck up on everyone with quality stuff and an impressive milb track record.

[Linus]

I think a bigger concern is the league adjusting to it. He still has a lot to prove IMO. Might be better suited for the pen where it would be hard for hitters to adjust seeing him only once.

[Thrylos]

The thing is that SSS, the drama about his curveball, and all, his curveball was just a tad better than a league average pitch last season.   He really needs to get his change going, otherwise the bullpen is probably where he will find a home in the long (and short) run, which is not a bad thing.  I'd rather see him in the 7th or 8th inning than Fien.

[notoriousgod71]

The Twins banking on him to be a productive member of this rotation is the typical short-sighted thinking that has led them to trot out Joe Mays, Nick Blackburn, and Scott Diamond after miraculous seasons.

[Thrylos]

 

The Twins banking on him to be a productive member of this rotation is the typical short-sighted thinking that has led them to trot out Joe Mays, Nick Blackburn, and Scott Diamond after miraculous seasons.

 

At least they extended only two out of three (Ain't bad.)

[EddieMatthews]

Keep in mind that the Twins braintrust is looking for the next Brad Radke.  They want an inning-eater who can hold an ERA of 4.25 and a WHIP of 1.300.  Someone who can stay under club control for the longest time.  

 

I would like to see Duffey pick up a third pitch and stay in the rotation.  2016 will show if the hitters can adjust to his curve.  I expect that they will, so he should get as many starts as possible early, before that happens.  If it doesn't and he can stay ahead of the hitters, all the better.  If he flounders, bring up Berrios.

[nicksaviking]

I give Duffey a longer leash than Nolasco, Milone and/or Hughes if we find out this spring that Hughes' 90 MPH FB velocity from last year is now perminant.

[Monkeypaws]

What was Bert's 3rd pitch, just out of curiousity. 

 

His arm sure held up for all the curves he threw.

[Thrylos]

 

What was Bert's 3rd pitch, just out of curiousity. 

 

His arm sure held up for all the curves he threw.

 

He has 2 "curve" balls.  A 12-5 aka the "overhead drop" and a faster 10-6 aka the "roundhouse". 

[stringer bell]

Duffey said at Twinsfest that he throws the curve at different angles and velocities. The variations serves as a third pitch. Not sure if Thry above is referring to Bert or Duffey.

[stringer bell]

 

 

I give Duffey a longer leash than Nolasco, Milone and/or Hughes if we find out this spring that Hughes' 90 MPH FB velocity from last year is now perminant.

Because he is younger? I like the curve, but I think he needs to adjust to thrive in 2016 and beyond.

[Kwak]

Duffey uses two curveball speeds and he uses his pitch in two different ways--some are meant to be in the strike zone and some are meant to finish out of the zone.  He has a sufficient number of pitches for long-term success.  Duffey is not  in the Radke mold--so a comparison is invalid.  Duffey's plan is to miss bats, Radke was looking for weak contact/groundballs.

[Linus]

The Twins banking on him to be a productive member of this rotation is the typical short-sighted thinking that has led them to trot out Joe Mays, Nick Blackburn, and Scott Diamond after miraculous seasons.

Well since they have 7 guys to choose from for starters I think it is pretty clear the Twins are not counting on any one guy. Whoever makes it will earn it.

[stringer bell]

I fear that Duffey will be sent to Rochester to start the season so that Nolasco can claim a spot in the rotation. Based on performance last year, that makes little sense. However, based on last season, Danny Santana and Oswaldo Arcia should be DFAed.

[Dantes929]

 

The thing is that SSS, the drama about his curveball, and all, his curveball was just a tad better than a league average pitch last season.   He really needs to get his change going, otherwise the bullpen is probably where he will find a home in the long (and short) run, which is not a bad thing.  I'd rather see him in the 7th or 8th inning than Fien.

I clicked on the link and just don't know what it means.   First of all a bit better than league average is still better than league average and did the same chart say his fast ball was much better than average?  

As was pointed out duffey throws cruveballs that are designed to make the batters knees buckles some that are hard to square up and some that are designed to chase.  He does it by varying the speeds and the plane.    It all makes his tailing fastball even better.    Maybe was last year's Scott Diamond though I believe the main reason Diamond failed was arm problems that caused his curve ball to have much less bite to it.   I think there is a better than fair chance that Duffey can be good.

[jimbo92107]

Tyler Duffey is a curve ball artist. Trust his judgement on how and when to throw it, and don't worry about him hurting his arm. Along with his two- and four-seam heater, and a so-so change, he's got all the pitches he needs. 

 

As for his curve being "slightly better than league average," nonsense. Duffey's curve is one of the best in the league. He buckles knees with it, and makes good hitters look clumsy with it. He sets up his fastballs with it when he sees a guy sitting on the curve. If they sit on the heater, he'll throw the curve all day. Even if they do sit on the curve, how many guys last season could actually do something with it? Mostly they grounded out or struck out.

 

As for the starting rotation, I don't think Paul Molitor will let Tyler Duffey escape the major league club as long as that big bender is still bending. He wants that on the mound every five days.

[DrNeau]

 

As for the starting rotation, I don't think Paul Molitor will let Tyler Duffey escape the major league club as long as that big bender is still bending. He wants that on the mound every five days.

 

Thank God! Nolasco to long relief!

[USAFChief]

He has 2 "curve" balls. A 12-5 aka the "overhead drop" and a faster 10-6 aka the "roundhouse".

 

A 12-5 curveball?

 

No.

 

That would mean it's curving TOWARD a RH hitter.

[nicksaviking]

 

Because he is younger? I like the curve, but I think he needs to adjust to thrive in 2016 and beyond.

 

Because he is younger AND he needs time to adjust. I see him as more likely a useful piece of a championship team, and I don't think you can adjust in AAA.

[clutterheart]

Duffey's numbers last year were the best he ever put up.  He upped his K's, lowered his Walks, cut down on HR's and got more Ground balls then he did in 2013 & 2014.  

 

If he got that by sticking to his best pitch - the Curve - then great.  Hopefully he can keep that up.  My worry with Duffey is maybe he just caught lightening in a bottle last year and he can't sustain his success.  

[zenser]

 

A 12-5 curveball?

No.

That would mean it's curving TOWARD a RH hitter.

 

Wouldn't a 12-7 go into a RH hitter and be more of a screwball and a 12-5 curve into a LH? 

 

[USAFChief]

Wouldn't a 12-7 go into a RH hitter and be more of a screwball and a 12-5 curve into a LH?

 

Curves are generally described using a clock face as if looking from behind the pitcher.

 

1-7 or 2-8 are the normal "flight paths" used to describe a curve from a RHer, since few throw from directly overhand ("12"). A combination of break down, and away from the pitchers arm side. 12-6 would be an overhand curve that breaks straight down with no lateral movement. Those are very rare, despite comments on TV.

 

12-5 would have a screwball action. Nobody is throwing an overhand screwball that breaks into a RH hitter. Some pitchers are able to get a little same side tail on their FB, some change ups can have a little fade, and depending on who you believe, some pitchers have been able to throw an actual screwball, putting reverse spin on and getting "backwards" break.

 

But Duffey's curveball breaks toward the LH box, not the RH one.

[tobi0040]

 

Wouldn't a 12-7 go into a RH hitter and be more of a screwball and a 12-5 curve into a LH? 

 

We are talking about a clock and a RHP right?  

 

12-7 would go down and to the left, away from a righty.  12-5 would be more like a screwball.

[Oxtung]

Wouldn't a 12-7 go into a RH hitter and be more of a screwball and a 12-5 curve into a LH?

 

  

A 12-5 curveball?

No.

That would mean it's curving TOWARD a RH hitter.

It depends on your reference point. From the pitchers perspective a 12-5 curve would break towards a right handed batter but from a hitters perspective it would break towards a left handed batter.

[nicksaviking]

 

Duffey's numbers last year were the best he ever put up.  He upped his K's, lowered his Walks, cut down on HR's and got more Ground balls then he did in 2013 & 2014.  

 

If he got that by sticking to his best pitch - the Curve - then great.  Hopefully he can keep that up.  My worry with Duffey is maybe he just caught lightening in a bottle last year and he can't sustain his success.  

 

I agree, there is great concern about Duffey pitching over his head in 2015, but I'd give him a long rope to find out. What he did at the end of last year showed enough upside that I'd make doubly sure it was a fluke. We already know the best and worst we can expect from Nolasco, Milone and Hughes.

[markos]

 

As for his curve being "slightly better than league average," nonsense. Duffey's curve is one of the best in the league. He buckles knees with it, and makes good hitters look clumsy with it. He sets up his fastballs with it when he sees a guy sitting on the curve. If they sit on the heater, he'll throw the curve all day. Even if they do sit on the curve, how many guys last season could actually do something with it? Mostly they grounded out or struck out.

I think the big question is how quickly MLB hitters will be able to adjust, and how Duffey response. Most hitters have only seen him for a single game. The two teams that did face him twice (CLE and DET) had their swinging-strike rate drop from 12.6% in the first game to 8.4% in the second. That might be nothing but small-sample noise, or it could be sign that hitters will adjust the more they see him.

[Vanimal46]

 

Duffey's numbers last year were the best he ever put up.  He upped his K's, lowered his Walks, cut down on HR's and got more Ground balls then he did in 2013 & 2014.  

 

If he got that by sticking to his best pitch - the Curve - then great.  Hopefully he can keep that up.  My worry with Duffey is maybe he just caught lightening in a bottle last year and he can't sustain his success.  

I hope you're wrong, but I do have the same concern... If that curve is as good as others claim, maybe it can be sustainable. But as we've learned with other pitchers, one little tweak in their routine, arm motion, whatever, and it can spiral downhill quickly. 

[Steve Lein]

 

Duffey's curve is one of the best in the league.

.

 

Honestly, I think this statement is a bit overblown. It's definitely a good pitch, above average/plus and I'm not trying to take that away from him, but this thinking comes from the Twins not having a pitcher with as effective (or good looking) of a breaking ball as his was last year since Liriano. (Liriano's slider is/was a way better pitch)

 

Compare Duffey's bender to the ones of Sonny Gray, Kershaw, Grienke, King Felix, Colin McHugh, Darvish, Kimbrel, Jose Fernandez, or Wainwright, etc... and what do you have?

 

All depends I guess, on how many pitches/pitchers you include in a sample of "best in the league," but I don't think he'd really get included by anybody in that group outside of Minnesota. (I pulled all those names off the top of my head and that's already 9 of them).

[jimbo92107]

 

I think the big question is how quickly MLB hitters will be able to adjust, and how Duffey response. Most hitters have only seen him for a single game. The two teams that did face him twice (CLE and DET) had their swinging-strike rate drop from 12.6% in the first game to 8.4% in the second. That might be nothing but small-sample noise, or it could be sign that hitters will adjust the more they see him.

That's the multi-million dollar question, when and if MLB hitters will learn to "adjust" to Tyler Duffey's curve. 

 

My own question is, why didn't they adjust right away? It's not like they've never seen a curve ball before. They've even seen curves from top guys, like Grenke, Hernandez, etc. 

 

What I'm seeing with Duffey is something a little different than those guys. They throw great curve balls, but it's still a pitch that works off their dominant fastball, an alternate to mix things up. In contrast, Duffey prefers to throw his curve ball as much as possible. It's his dominant pitch, and he throws his less dominant fastball to keep them from waiting on the curve. The usual logic is truly reversed. 

 

The result of this reversal in priorities is a difficult problem for hitters. A pitcher will sometimes "pitch backwards," throwing a curve ball in a fastball situation, etc. But usually that curve ball isn't as tight and well-commanded as Duffey's. Usually it's not the preferred pitch. Most pitchers grow up getting their fun from raring back and heaving smoke past their opponents. Somewhere along the line Duffey learned to enjoy spinning it up there so nasty that the hitter would whiff by a foot. He got really good at spinning it, and now he's a curve ball ace. 

 

To me, Duffey's future success depends on improving the command and disguise of his fastballs and his change-up. He has already mastered the curve ball well enough to get most guys out with it. This season a lot more hitters will be sitting back and waiting on the bender, even in fastball situations. That means they'll be late on the heater. It also means they'd screw themselves into the ground if Duffey develops a good change-up. Tyler Duffey is by far the most interesting pitcher on this team.