That's the multi-million dollar question, when and if MLB hitters will learn to "adjust" to Tyler Duffey's curve. 

 

My own question is, why didn't they adjust right away? It's not like they've never seen a curve ball before. They've even seen curves from top guys, like Grenke, Hernandez, etc. 

Maybe they did adjust right away.

                                                                            

Split                 G PA AB R  H 2B 3B HR BB SO SO/W   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS BAbip
1st PA in G as SP    10 90 83 2 13  2  0  1  6 26 4.33 .157 .213 .217  .430  .214
2nd PA in G as SP    10 85 74 8 19  7  1  2  9 14 1.56 .257 .337 .459  .797  .293
3rd PA in G as SP     9 62 57 6 21  3  1  1  5 11 2.20 .368 .419 .509  .928  .444
4th+ PA in G as SP    2  5  5 2  3  0  0  0  0       2 .600 .600 .600 1.200 1.000
 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=duffety01&year=2015&t=p&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#times 

Generated 2/8/2016.

Edited February 8, 201610 yr by markos

 

Maybe they did adjust right away.

Thanks for the stats!

 

Duffey absolutely destroyed batters the first time through the order.  By the second time through the order, he was below league average, and by the third time through the order he was pretty bad, although it was somewhat masked by luck, a fairly quick hook, and some help from his pen (9 of 11 runners stranded).

 

Easily the Twins worst starter last year, in terms of opponent OPS 3rd time through the order:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_team.cgi?full=1&params=times%7C3rd%20PA%20in%20G%2C%20as%20SP%7CMIN%7C2015%7Cpitch%7CAB%7C#3rd_PA_in_G,_as_SP1::18

 

 

A 12-5 curveball?

No.

That would mean it's curving TOWARD a RH hitter.

 

12-6

Typo.

 

Curves are generally described using a clock face as if looking from behind the pitcher.

1-7 or 2-8 are the normal "flight paths" used to describe a curve from a RHer, since few throw from directly overhand ("12"). A combination of break down, and away from the pitchers arm side. 12-6 would be an overhand curve that breaks straight down with no lateral movement. Those are very rare, despite comments on TV.

12-5 would have a screwball action. Nobody is throwing an overhand screwball that breaks into a RH hitter. Some pitchers are able to get a little same side tail on their FB, some change ups can have a little fade, and depending on who you believe, some pitchers have been able to throw an actual screwball, putting reverse spin on and getting "backwards" break.

But Duffey's curveball breaks toward the LH box, not the RH one.

Aww, geez.  I'm confused now.  I'm just gonna look at digital clock for a moment, to keep my head from spinning.

Duffey seemed to have impeccable control over all of his various curves.  It was impressive to watch, but my thought in watching him was that he was in a zone where he was at his best in terms of feel and confidence in his pitches.  I found it highly unlikely that he could keep that up relative to his history.  A change up takes as much touch and feel as throwing multiple curves.  Sure a change could go a long way, but it's also possible it messes with his rhythm as much as it messes with the hitters'.  I'd have him go forward throwing his curves as long as he can continue to have success.