Sheehan: Mauer should be in the OF

[mattkummer]

Joe Sheehan is reviewing all 30 teams in 30 hours. He just posted his Twins review.
And his main point is-- good luck with the Sano move, and why do they continue to let Joe Mauer clog up 1B and the lineup instead of moving him to a corner OF or part-time.
(No-- he doesn't say move him back to catcher!)

---------------
Moderator's note: The article in question was originally posted in full, without permission or knowledge of the author. While not done maliciously, posting someone else's work other than small excerpts violates the TD Comment Policy and you can have a look there if you want to know the reasoning. I have since contacted the author, and with his permission I have restored the content, below. Because of the situation, I invited him to provide the following commentary:

 

The Joe Sheehan Newsletter is an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, a mix of analysis, commentary and opinion, all linked by a deep love of the game. Subscriptions cost $29.95 for a full year and $16.95 for six months.

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His Twitter handle is @joe_sheehan

 

 

 

The Twins outwon their underlying performance for two months last season, which laid the groundwork for them to be a wild-card contender into the season's final weekend. Their final record of 83-79 is illusory; they were outscored, they were last in OBP, last in pitcher strikeouts, below-average in defensive efficiency. Had they gone 76-86, it would have been a good year on which they could build. Having gone 83-79, it may create unrealistic expectations about where they are and what they can do in 2016.

 

To their credit, they haven't acted as if they believe their own hype. Their only trade flipped center fielder Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy. That was an odd deal, one that lessened the playing-time crunch in the outfield but both dealt away one of their few plus defenders and didn't return much. Murphy, 25 next year, makes for a good backup or a marginal starter -- .267/.311/.374 career in the majors with 28% CS%. He doesn't have enough career innings for us to have a read on his umpire-exploitation skills. This deal may align the Twins' talent a bit better, but it's a clear loss for them, and it again moves them away from the kind of good defensive team they need in Target Field.

 

One reason for the Hicks trade was to create room in left field for Miguel Sano. Sano is 23 next year, listed at 6'4" and 260 pounds at 22 years old. He was a shortstop not long ago, then moved to third base and is now being tried in the outfield. Here's the history of 250-pound corner outfielders:

 

Yeah, Good Luck With That

 

G Wt D
Carlos Lee 2099 270 -58
Adam Dunn 2001 285 -37
Frank Howard 1895 255 -95
Matt Holliday 1663 250 -31
Dmitri Young 1364 295 -12
Lucas Duda 638 255 -24
Wily Mo Pena 599 260 0

 

(35% of games in LF or RF, min. listed 250 pounds, min. 500 G; "D" is Total Zone figure for all outfield play from baseball-reference)

 

Mind you, most of those listed weights are from later in the players' careers. Up there you have one of the worst outfielders ever, Dunn, plus a failed experiment in Duda. Lee was quietly terrible, same as Holliday. Those are the successes, mind you; most players who weigh 250 pounds don't become corner outfielders, and the ones tried out there usually wash out or end up somewhere else. Sano isn't a big guy who can move, either; he has 33 stolen bases and 18 triples in six seasons as a pro. He had one of each last year in the majors. Sano is working on it; he left his winter-league team so as to put more time into his conversion to the outfield, a position he's never played as a pro. This isn't really about effort, though. It's about there being good reasons why 260-pound guys aren't charged with the job of chasing fly balls.

 

The risk isn't that Sano will be a -10 defender. The risk is that playing the outfield will wear him down physically and affect his development, his performance, as a hitter. Sano is a rare talent, someone who has 45-homer power and a pretty good approach at the plate. He will be a good enough hitter that even as a DH, he could be a superstar. Just two players have had at least five four-win seasons as a DH; Sano reminds me most of one of them, David Ortiz. Unfortunately for Sano, the Twins signed Korean slugger Byung Ho Park, who will be given the DH job at least at the start of the 2016 season. (Park is the Twins' only free-agent signing.) They also seem unwilling or unable to move Trevor Plouffe off of third base so that Sano can get a fair chance at playing the position in the majors. (Sano may not be a major-league third baseman, either.)

 

This brings us to the problem. In a reasonable world, Sano would learn how to play first base and get on with being Prince Fielder for the next six years. The Twins, however, have Joe Mauer's Contract over there, and it's not easy to move. Mauer signed an eight-year contract extension when he was the reigning MVP on a Hall of Fame track as a catcher. Now he is a two-win first baseman taking down $23 million a year and hitting a home run a month. I'm not criticizing the decision to move Mauer out from the behind the plate to spare him any more concussions; that was necessary. Putting him at first base, though, gave his offense nowhere to go. Mauer has been killed by the uptick in velocity and the increased information on where batters hit baseballs: he strikes out more and gets fewer hits on contact than ever before. Thirty-nine first basemen had 300 PA last year; Mauer was 37th in SLG, 37th in ISO, and those numbers are not likely to go back up.

 

It is one thing to shrug and let Mauer eat up $70 million over the next three seasons because loyalty. It's another to let him and his contract force you into a bad decision with the future of the franchise. Sano should be a first baseman, and if that means Mauer has to be a left fielder, then Mauer should be a left fielder. Mauer is a big guy, too, but he's still a good athlete who was a good defensive catcher as recently as two years ago. The team's defense might be a little worse in this alignment -- Sano will be worse than Mauer at first base, at least initially -- but the long-term interests of the franchise would be better served. Mauer isn't the future; he's barely the present.

 

Sano should play, in order, third base, first base, DH, outfield. Plouffe blocks him at third for now, and Plouffe is actually a better player than Mauer is these days. Park cuts off the path to DH for now, and there's enough upside in that transaction -- Park signed a ridiculously cheap four-year, $12-million deal -- that you have to see it through. Mauer is the problem, and if you have to choose between playing Mauer or Sano out of position, you choose Mauer.

 

(It's not completely unreasonable to suggest that Joe Mauer should not be starting for the Twins at all, though the trade of Hicks could help avoid that happenstance. We'll have to see how Park turns out, but the 2016 Twins' best lineup might feature Plouffe, Sano, Park, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario, plus a catcher, shortstop and second baseman.)

 

The Hicks trade and the move of Sano to left field are just the latest examples of the Twins still not understanding the interplay of pitching and defense. Whether it's signing Josh Willingham and Torii Hunter, or repeatedly blocking Hicks's path to a job, or pretending Danny Santana is a shortstop, the Twins have repeatedly put bad defensive players on the field behind the lowest-strikeout staffs in baseball. They've made feints towards better choices at times, but never seem to understand that the Twins Way on the mound has to be combined with the Royals Way behind it. This isn't a complex sabermetric notion, but it's one lost on the Twins in this decade.

 

Dissonance

 

AL Ranks DER K% RA

2015 12 15 7
2014 15 15 15
2013 15 15 14
2012 9* 14* 13*
2011 14* 14* 13*

 

*of 14 teams

 

Until they start putting either strikeout pitchers on the mound or better defensive players behind it, the Twins won't win.

[mazeville]

Generally agree with this. The Twins should have traded Plouffe for a starting catcher rather than Hicks so they could have a plus outfield again. But I would much rather have Mauer in the outfield than Sano -- there is just no way he will do much out there with his size.

 

And with the huge outfield at Target Field, it makes sense to have outfielders who can move. Mauer is athletic enough to be able to handle the position. Heck, he should have been moved to third base rather than third when they decided to move him off of catcher in the first place. I still say that Plouffe should be traded, Mauer moved to third and Sano to first. But the Twins are apparently dead set against trading him. Ugh.

 

In any event, I just do not understand the idea of moving Sano to the outfield. The Twins would risk their defense and risk ruining one of their best prospects. It just makes no sense. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I like this as a piece of writing, and a lot of the analysis is good, but his claim that Mauer is the better candidate to move to the OF because of his athleticism is swimming against the tide of prevailing opinion: that Sano has the quickness (meaning not just foot speed but reflexes, etc.) to handle the outfield more than Mauer or Plouffe do.

[Shane Wahl]

This was excellent. And obviously Plouffe should have been traded for a catcher, or they should have signed a catcher.

I don't want Sano's development messed with at all, and I don't want increased injury risk. Moving him to the OF is stupid. It is stupid. I don't understand *any* attempts to defend this from the Twins-Never-Make-A-Mistake crowd.

 

If this OBSESSION with keeping Plouffe at all ridiculous costs continues, I prefer Mauer in the OF over Sano.

[h2oface]

Yes! Sano to first. Get on with it!!!!

[Mike Sixel]

This is so true, it hurts. Mauer should be a part time player, Sano should be at 1B, Kepler should be in AAA or the majors. All of this is so true.

[awinter]

Didn't mention Dozier by name in his ideal Twins lineup. Instead said a second baseman...

[nicksaviking]

It always seems to be pieces from outsiders who have no obvious ties and thus appear impartial that tend to open most eyes. If this was written by Jim Souhan, much of this would be looked at as more of the same whining.

 

The last line is spot on, I really hope the right people within the organization either already understand these issues and are working to correct them, or read this and now have some doubts about the current direction.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Agreed on all fronts!

 

Average-to-below average veterans are the ones who need to be moved around to accommodate what's best for the stud prospects, not the other way around.

 

Mauer's the elephant in the room for nearly everything involved with the Twins roster moves and shuffling. I think it says something that a national writer (i.e. one who is unbiased by allegiance, nostalgia, etc.) suggests Mauer's best spot with the team may be as a part-time player.

[Target Field of Dreams]

 

Didn't mention Dozier by name in his ideal Twins lineup. Instead said a second baseman...

 

Right...kind of lost me at this part....proves that he really doesn't know that much about the Twins to leave Dozier off. Made some good points, but then this took away a lot of his credibility.

[drjim]

I would push back to the article in three ways:

 

1. I don't think Mauer is a better athlete than Sano right now. Not close.

 

2. The comparison with 250 lb OFs is instructive, but Sano is younger, has a much stronger arm, and started as a SS, so he should pull it off much more successfully. I thought he should have been playing OF last year.

 

3. I don't really buy that playing a corner OF is going to wear him down so much it will stunt his development. He's 22 for one thing, and is very likely going to DH around 30 games even if there isn't an injury. He'll survive a couple of seasons just fine.

 

The truth is, of course, is that the shadow of Mauer is really handcuffing this team.

 

The rest of it is the same things people have debating up and down, Sheehan may certainly be correct. He may be wrong.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I would push back to the article in three ways:

 

1. I don't think Mauer is a better athlete than Sano right now. Not close.

 

2. The comparison with 250 lb OFs is instructive, but Sano is younger, has a much stronger arm, and started as a SS, so he should pull it off much more successfully. I thought he should have been playing OF last year.

 

3. I don't really buy that playing a corner OF is going to wear him down so much it will stunt his development. He's 22 for one thing, and is very likely going to DH around 30 games even if there isn't an injury. He'll survive a couple of seasons just fine.

 

The truth is, of course, is that the shadow of Mauer is really handcuffing this team.

 

The rest of it is the same things people have debating up and down, Sheehan may certainly be correct. He may be wrong.

 

I don't want to see Sano in the OF, but I agree with your three points. I think the main point of the article you summed up there in the second to last line.

 

He may be right, and he may be wrong, but he most likely is an objective outsider.  When someone doesn't appear to have an agenda and they appear to have strong baseball knowledge, I tend to put credence in their opinion.

[gmarais66]

Finally... Someone at the national level puts this stupidity of moving Sano to the outfield into context. Having a 270-pound outfielder is like having a 6-foot center in the NBA or a 170-pound tackle in the NFL. It goes against all logic. It is a disaster in the making. It has never worked in the history of professional baseball, but somehow, the Minnesota Twins are going to be the ones to change history... Highly unlikely. TRADE PLOUFFE!!! He's not an all-star... He's average, at best. He's not the key piece of the lineup that will make the difference between a World Championship and another mediocre season. His trade value will never be higher. Get something for him... A pitcher, catcher, outfielder... Just move him to make room for a player that could be the best in franchise history.

[Halsey Hall]

 

Didn't mention Dozier by name in his ideal Twins lineup. Instead said a second baseman...

He said "a catcher, shortstop and second baseman" because he wasn't talking about any of those positions, but was about first and third. 

[bluechipper]

I don't understand how Sano's minor league stolen base numbers are a good reflection of his athleticism. How about referencing him topping 20 mph on a triple this year instead.

 

As far as being an outfielder wearing him down, really? If a 23 year old can't stand/run around in the outfield for a few hours a night, then we've really got some problems.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

As far as being an outfielder wearing him down, really? If a 23 year old can't stand/run around in the outfield for a few hours a night, then we've really got some problems.

Yeah, this. I hate the idea of Sano in the outfield - really, I hate it - but that's some pretty weak reasoning why he can't play RF. There are plenty of reasons not to play a 23 year old slugger at a position he's never played without suggesting that he might get tired.

[markos]

I have two problems with this analysis:

 

1) Using a historical search based on size ignores the fact that athletes across all sports are getting bigger and bigger without losing their athletic abilities. 40 years ago, someone Calvin Johnson's height and weight was a lineman. 20 years ago he was a tight end. If Lebron James or Rob Gronkowski were to switch to baseball, no one would bat an eye about putting them in the outfield, and they are both 250+. So anyone talking about Sano's (or anyone else's) move to a position by saying "Only X players bigger than Y have ever played there... " is ignoring this trend.

 

2) Assuming this move to the outfield is only a 2 or 3 year temporary resting place, the historical examples that Sheehan provides actually run counter to his point. Almost all of the "historically bad" defensive numbers for those players occurred when those players were in the late-20s or older. If you just look at their age 23-25 seasons, Dunn, Lee and Young all has slightly positive defensive value in the outfield. 

[SwainZag]

Hint hint, Mauer isn't 24 anymore.  He will 33 a few weeks after opening day has had a ton of stress on his knees and anyone that's watched him round the bases and lag out doubles knows he would be a complete liability in the OF.

 

I don't like the idea of Sano in the OF, but all the reasoning on this whole thread just relates to his weight. Have you seen the guy play?  For his size he is quick and I am guessing management has seen a lot more of how he moves more than all of us.

 

And

 

 

If this OBSESSION with keeping Plouffe at all ridiculous costs continues, I prefer Mauer in the OF over Sano.

 

Who said there was an obsession to keep Plouffe? For all we know TR could have been trying to peddle Plouffe the entire offseason without getting an offer he finds suitable.  

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think Mauer should be in the OF......the key point, though, is that they continue to defer to him, and not put Sano at 1B where he should be probably, or maybe.

[mattkummer]

 

It always seems to be pieces from outsiders who have no obvious ties and thus appear impartial that tend to open most eyes. If this was written by Jim Souhan, much of this would be looked at as more of the same whining.

 

The last line is spot on, I really hope the right people within the organization either already understand these issues and are working to correct them, or read this and now have some doubts about the current direction.

 

While we make fun of the rubes (deservedly) who never miss an opportunity to bash Mauer, call him a wuss, ask why they don't move him back to catcher, etc., there is a larger, valid point.

Souhan has made that point, but he winds up discrediting it when he reverts to going full rube.

 

It's not Mauer's money that's handcuffing the Twins, it's their stubborn insistence that he occupy the #3 spot in the lineup and play 1B every day when there are younger, more productive options in both of those spots. If it's sentimentality that Mauer is "one of us", the Twins need to realize that ship sailed with Mauer a long time ago. He's probably the most hated athlete in the Twin Cities. As Sheehan writes: "Mauer isn't the future; he's barely the present." He's right about this, and the Twins need to adjust accordingly to put their best lineup out there. 

[Mike Sixel]

Mauer isn't one of us. the day he was old enough to decide where to live, he moved to FL. He is one of us like a chair is......he was here when he was required to be here by someone else. 

[bluechipper]

 

I don't think Mauer should be in the OF......the key point, though, is that they continue to defer to him, and not put Sano at 1B where he should be probably, or maybe.

Well they've got to play Mauer somewhere, and 1B is pretty much the only option.

[Loosey]

I like Plouffe for multiple reasons.  He is a good player and seems to be an good guy off the field too.  That being said he isn't good enough to be blocking Sano and forcing what Sheehan says was the Hicks trade to make room for Sano in the OF. 

 

I have been calling for Mauer to get a lot of playing time in the OF since the bilateral leg weakness days. 

 

If you can't trade Plouffe I think Mauer should be able to play outfield.  For $23M he should be willing to do a lot of things.

[nicksaviking]

 

Well they've got to play Mauer somewhere, and 1B is pretty much the only option.

 

I think this is actually what many people question.  Do they actually have to play Mauer? Or is it possible for him to be a bench/role/platoon/90-100 games-per-year kind of player.

 

Even if he is still one of the better hitters on the team, there are still at least two guys who can play first who at this point in their careers are better hitters.  Maybe more than two.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well they've got to play Mauer somewhere, and 1B is pretty much the only option.

 

the bench about half the time would be my preference.

[Boom Boom]

Those who are concerned about Sano wearing down in the outfield, and those who think Mauer is too fragile/old/slow to play out there, are vastly overrating the rigors of playing a corner outfield spot.

 

I am 100% in agreement, though, that Mauer should be in the outfield and Sano should be at first base.

[bluechipper]

I think the whole question of should it be Mauer or Sano who moves to the outfield is overstated. I'm sure they'd both be fine out there, but Sano probably has a chance to be better. I don't think that Sano is the type of guy who will let playing in the OF affect who he is at the plate either.

 

And for everyone clamoring to trade Plouffe, this lineup looks really good the way it currently stands.

 

 

[Dance with Disco Dan]

When I think about moving Mauer to OF to open up 1B for Sano, I don't  question which of those two players can handle to OF better because I am pretty sure both of them would be below-average. Rather, I ask myself which bat the Twins will miss more when the inevitable hamstring gets pulled--i.e. the big-guy-chasing-little-ball paradigm.  And then I ask myself who is more likely to kill Buxton in a stupid-play OF collision?  The answers to both questions: Sano by a wide margin.

 

I don't know if moving Mauer to the OF is the right call but I am 100% certain that Sano in the OF will result in a minimum 3-4 weeks on DL with leg issues.  TR should buy him a first basemen's mitt for Christmas.  I've been hoping for a couple years that Sano would start dedicating himself to training and getting into great shape.  But now I am thinking the best thing he could do is show up to camp over-weight to save the Twins from themselves.

[TheLeviathan]

Who said there was an obsession to keep Plouffe? For all we know TR could have been trying to peddle Plouffe the entire offseason without getting an offer he finds suitable.

 

 

Well, Ryan sort of ruled it out.  And moving Sano to the outfield that early in the offseason would seem to indicate no desire to move Plouffe either.  And it's really indefensible.  If you insist on keeping Plouffe - move his butt to the outfield. 

 

Sheehan is right though, the problem is not necessarily Plouffe, it's Mauer.  If he's not in the picture we don't even have to worry about this.  And neither Mauer nor Plouffe are worth shuffling Sano to the outfield.

[sane09]

It is stupid! I don't understand *any* attempts to defend this from the Twins-Never-Make-A-Mistake crowd.

And "I don't understand *any* attempts" to preempt opposing arguments by declaring them beyond your understanding before reading them.

I thought TD was open to diverse opinions.

Read them, THEN dismiss them.

That would be better than covering your eyes & ears and hollering "nanananananana".