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Ryan Jeffers hasn’t inspired confidence in being the catcher of the future for many reasons, but now a question has been raised that’s out of his control: Should the Twins be making an effort to line up his replacement this offseason? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The catcher position is incredibly demanding, which is why we commonly see either a gold glove caliber defender with no offense or a relatively great hitting catcher who struggles defensively. It’s hard to do both. Ryan Jeffers has leaned more towards the former so far in his career, as his bat hasn’t played for more than short flashes at a time. With changes to how the game of baseball is played, however, could Jeffers’ carrying tool become obsolete? Jeffers has flashed some thump in his bat so far throughout his career, though never consistently at the MLB level. He also hasn’t made enough contact or reached base at a high enough clip to be considered an offensive contributor as shown in his .210/.285/.390 line in 591 plate appearances thus far. Instead Jeffers makes his impact with his defense, though not in a traditional sense. Jeffers has only caught 24% of baserunners trying to steal in his career. Though not all blame can be assigned to the catcher in such a measure, it’s safe to say catching baserunners isn’t Jeffers’ specialty. Instead his defensive reputation comes from stealing strikes on borderline pitches, and we’ve seen plenty of examples of him doing so in his three years. Jeffers has been in the 60th percentile or better for framing in every year of his career so far. Stealing strikes is his #1 skill, and he does it well. Converting a first-pitch ball into a strike for example can lower an opposing hitters’ OPS from .916 in a 1-0 count to .827. Or from .842 to .382 going from a 1-1 count to 0-2. There’s no doubt that Jeffers' pitch framing has helped Twins pitchers when he’s been on the field. The issue however is that the robo-umpire idea doesn’t appear to be a question of if, but rather when. No longer will catchers be able to stage pitches to sway umpires, as they’ll be measured objectively. The timeline of when we’ll see the electronic strike zone debut is unclear, but for the current version of Ryan Jeffers, this is very bad news. It’s possible that Jeffers has more development to make. He has missed his fair share of time with injury. But for the Twins, who lack another catcher even within their top 30 prospects, this should create some worry for the future. We appear to be on the fence regarding whether Jeffers can be “the guy” behind the plate for future Twins teams, but taking away his biggest strength would answer the question for us. The Twins need a long-term backup plan. There are several routes the Twins can go. Signing free agent Willson Contreras is undoubtedly the most fun scenario. Going from Jeffers to the electric former Cubs backstop who seemingly does it all would no doubt be an upgrade. Contreras however will likely require a massive deal after hitting free agency at 30 following a season in which he posted an incredible 132 wRC+ at the plate. Such a deal wouldn’t be the Twins' style and they have needs elsewhere. The rest of free agency doesn’t inspire much confidence in the long term. The Twins could also make a concerted effort to address the position in the draft. The bright side of their disappointing season in 2022 is the higher draft pick they hold. They haven’t drafted a first-round catcher since Joe Mauer in 2001 and of course the talent has to be worth the pick. If a catcher isn’t available that’s worthy of a 1st round selection, consider for example that Mitch Garver was drafted in the 9th round because of defensive concerns. They could beat the rush and target bat first catchers now rather than waiting until receiving and framing are no longer considered skills. The Twins love their “market inefficiencies” and they can take advantage of one that won’t be around much longer during the 2023 draft. Independent of the upcoming strike zone changes, Jeffers had enough question marks. The Twins have been fortunate in recent history with catchers such as Garver breaking through after not carrying a high prospect pedigree. It’s time to shore up the future with a lacking pipeline of catchers. This is the offseason for the Twins to set themselves up for a possible future without Ryan Jeffers View full article
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Going into this offseason, the Minnesota Twins know they must make some sort of addition behind the plate. The 40-man roster currently has just one catcher on it, and there are not ideal solutions throughout the system either. Unlike a time when Joe Mauer was a given, the Twins may have more questions than ever at catcher. Image courtesy of David Berding-USA TODAY Sports Over the past few seasons, Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, Rocco Baldelli (and Paul Molitor before him) have seen their starter behind the plate be a revolving door. It’s certainly not an easy position to generate consistency from, but since 2014 Minnesota has had the same catcher in the Opening Day lineup in three consecutive seasons just twice. Kurt Suzuki and Jason Castro, both free-agent veterans at the time, can make that claim. Since, Mitch Garver has drawn two starts with Ryan Jeffers being back there in 2022. From Opening Day 2004 through 2013, the Twins started a catcher not named Joe Mauer just once, when Mike Redmond was tasked with the job to start 2009. Over a stretch of ten years, Mauer was the most given thing in any Twins lineup. Finding something reminiscent of that run must be a goal for the current roster construction. Up-the-middle positions in baseball may be the most impactful players on the diamond. Joining a lack of consistency behind the plate is a shortstop revolving door that has seen no player remain more than the back-to-back Opening Day starter since Cristian Guzman in 2004. That laundry list of talents paired with an ever-changing catching situation is something that begs Twins fans to recall Mauer’s greatness. We’ll likely never see another catcher do what Joe Mauer could. Winning a batting title from that position is difficult, and doing it three times is otherworldly. Mauer’s MVP award in 2009 was one of the best seasons we’ve seen in baseball history. Consistently being able to play at such a physically-demanding position is also not something we see in today's game. Maybe Jeffers winds up developing into a consistent talent for the Twins. After all, the team was substantially higher on him in the draft than most. Jeffers could represent a strong step forward at the position given his relative youth. Even the best free agent available, Willson Contreras, is no sure thing to remain as a backstop for years since he is already 30 years old. Even if Jeffers never shows a shred of Mauer’s total ability, providing stability at such a necessary position would go a long way for the Twins roster construction. We’re just a year away from Mauer’s debut on the Hall of Fame ballot. He will likely garner strong consideration to be inducted in that cycle. Eventually, he should find his way in, the numbers are too staggering in his favor. What will be worth wondering is whether Minnesota can find the replacement they’ve been looking for since Mauer moved to first base, and if it happens before his plaque is hung in Cooperstown. View full article
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Over the past few seasons, Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, Rocco Baldelli (and Paul Molitor before him) have seen their starter behind the plate be a revolving door. It’s certainly not an easy position to generate consistency from, but since 2014 Minnesota has had the same catcher in the Opening Day lineup in three consecutive seasons just twice. Kurt Suzuki and Jason Castro, both free-agent veterans at the time, can make that claim. Since, Mitch Garver has drawn two starts with Ryan Jeffers being back there in 2022. From Opening Day 2004 through 2013, the Twins started a catcher not named Joe Mauer just once, when Mike Redmond was tasked with the job to start 2009. Over a stretch of ten years, Mauer was the most given thing in any Twins lineup. Finding something reminiscent of that run must be a goal for the current roster construction. Up-the-middle positions in baseball may be the most impactful players on the diamond. Joining a lack of consistency behind the plate is a shortstop revolving door that has seen no player remain more than the back-to-back Opening Day starter since Cristian Guzman in 2004. That laundry list of talents paired with an ever-changing catching situation is something that begs Twins fans to recall Mauer’s greatness. We’ll likely never see another catcher do what Joe Mauer could. Winning a batting title from that position is difficult, and doing it three times is otherworldly. Mauer’s MVP award in 2009 was one of the best seasons we’ve seen in baseball history. Consistently being able to play at such a physically-demanding position is also not something we see in today's game. Maybe Jeffers winds up developing into a consistent talent for the Twins. After all, the team was substantially higher on him in the draft than most. Jeffers could represent a strong step forward at the position given his relative youth. Even the best free agent available, Willson Contreras, is no sure thing to remain as a backstop for years since he is already 30 years old. Even if Jeffers never shows a shred of Mauer’s total ability, providing stability at such a necessary position would go a long way for the Twins roster construction. We’re just a year away from Mauer’s debut on the Hall of Fame ballot. He will likely garner strong consideration to be inducted in that cycle. Eventually, he should find his way in, the numbers are too staggering in his favor. What will be worth wondering is whether Minnesota can find the replacement they’ve been looking for since Mauer moved to first base, and if it happens before his plaque is hung in Cooperstown.
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This offseason the Minnesota Twins will unquestionably add a catcher to their organization. The 40-man roster currently boasts only one, and the free-agent landscape isn’t exactly appealing. So why not consider a trade with the Oakland Athletics? Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports Entering the offseason, only Ryan Jeffers appears as a catcher for the Twins on the 40-man roster. Willson Contreras is out there as a free agent, but it’s quite the cliff when considering the options behind him. The Twins already know they’ll need to replace the production lost when Carlos Correa opts out and signs elsewhere, so looking to make up ground alongside Jeffers could be beneficial. To what level the Twins show aggressiveness when grabbing another backstop will probably indicate plenty as to how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine see 2023 going for Jeffers. If they believe he can be healthy and truly break out, then a middling veteran could probably get the job done. If they want to push for more, someone like the Athletics Sean Murphy makes some sense. Murphy will not come cheap, even from a team like the Athletics where cheap is synonymous with the organization. He’s under team control through the 2025 season and just turned 28 years old. Murphy finished fourth in the American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2020, and grabbed a Gold Glove in 2021. His career 114 OPS+ is notable at the position, and his 120 OPS+ in 2022 was impressive with offense being down across the sport. Oakland could also be motivated to move Murphy as they have plenty of prospect depth behind the plate. Top prospect Tyler Soderstrom can play catcher, as does their 4th overall prospect Daniel Susac. Although Susac has yet to play above Single-A, Soderstrom made it to Triple-A this season as a 20-year-old. This is Murphy’s first season of arbitration eligibility, and he is projected to receive $3.5 million for 2023 per MLB Trade Rumors. That would be an absolute steal for a guy that has already produced 10.6 fWAR over his career and was worth a career-best 5.1 fWAR in 2022. One of the best players at the position, still under team control, coming available is something Minnesota will likely need to consider. Another aspect of the Twins front office leaning heavily into a splash at catcher could be the result of their own valuation of the position throughout the farm. Not only are there no other catchers currently on the 40-man, but it’s a position of weakness across the system as a whole. Andrew Bechtold is at Triple-A but not a highly-rated prospect, and despite the solid year for Chris Williams, he falls into the same boat. Both have spent most of their time playing corner infield positions in their careers. Making a move for Murphy would certainly hurt some of the depth within the Twins system, but it could satisfy a need the organization is dealing with as a whole. Jeffers is younger and under team control through the 2026 season, but allowing him more time to play second fiddle may not be the worst move. Maybe the Twins would prefer a situation where their top option isn't challenge, but like the situation when Garver was present, maybe there's benefit to a 1A and a 1B. With a lineup that could use punch, exploiting a position often without if could be beneficial. How the front office attacks the backup role should remain something of intrigue this winter. View full article
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The catcher position is incredibly demanding, which is why we commonly see either a gold glove caliber defender with no offense or a relatively great hitting catcher who struggles defensively. It’s hard to do both. Ryan Jeffers has leaned more towards the former so far in his career, as his bat hasn’t played for more than short flashes at a time. With changes to how the game of baseball is played, however, could Jeffers’ carrying tool become obsolete? Jeffers has flashed some thump in his bat so far throughout his career, though never consistently at the MLB level. He also hasn’t made enough contact or reached base at a high enough clip to be considered an offensive contributor as shown in his .210/.285/.390 line in 591 plate appearances thus far. Instead Jeffers makes his impact with his defense, though not in a traditional sense. Jeffers has only caught 24% of baserunners trying to steal in his career. Though not all blame can be assigned to the catcher in such a measure, it’s safe to say catching baserunners isn’t Jeffers’ specialty. Instead his defensive reputation comes from stealing strikes on borderline pitches, and we’ve seen plenty of examples of him doing so in his three years. Jeffers has been in the 60th percentile or better for framing in every year of his career so far. Stealing strikes is his #1 skill, and he does it well. Converting a first-pitch ball into a strike for example can lower an opposing hitters’ OPS from .916 in a 1-0 count to .827. Or from .842 to .382 going from a 1-1 count to 0-2. There’s no doubt that Jeffers' pitch framing has helped Twins pitchers when he’s been on the field. The issue however is that the robo-umpire idea doesn’t appear to be a question of if, but rather when. No longer will catchers be able to stage pitches to sway umpires, as they’ll be measured objectively. The timeline of when we’ll see the electronic strike zone debut is unclear, but for the current version of Ryan Jeffers, this is very bad news. It’s possible that Jeffers has more development to make. He has missed his fair share of time with injury. But for the Twins, who lack another catcher even within their top 30 prospects, this should create some worry for the future. We appear to be on the fence regarding whether Jeffers can be “the guy” behind the plate for future Twins teams, but taking away his biggest strength would answer the question for us. The Twins need a long-term backup plan. There are several routes the Twins can go. Signing free agent Willson Contreras is undoubtedly the most fun scenario. Going from Jeffers to the electric former Cubs backstop who seemingly does it all would no doubt be an upgrade. Contreras however will likely require a massive deal after hitting free agency at 30 following a season in which he posted an incredible 132 wRC+ at the plate. Such a deal wouldn’t be the Twins' style and they have needs elsewhere. The rest of free agency doesn’t inspire much confidence in the long term. The Twins could also make a concerted effort to address the position in the draft. The bright side of their disappointing season in 2022 is the higher draft pick they hold. They haven’t drafted a first-round catcher since Joe Mauer in 2001 and of course the talent has to be worth the pick. If a catcher isn’t available that’s worthy of a 1st round selection, consider for example that Mitch Garver was drafted in the 9th round because of defensive concerns. They could beat the rush and target bat first catchers now rather than waiting until receiving and framing are no longer considered skills. The Twins love their “market inefficiencies” and they can take advantage of one that won’t be around much longer during the 2023 draft. Independent of the upcoming strike zone changes, Jeffers had enough question marks. The Twins have been fortunate in recent history with catchers such as Garver breaking through after not carrying a high prospect pedigree. It’s time to shore up the future with a lacking pipeline of catchers. This is the offseason for the Twins to set themselves up for a possible future without Ryan Jeffers
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Entering the offseason, only Ryan Jeffers appears as a catcher for the Twins on the 40-man roster. Willson Contreras is out there as a free agent, but it’s quite the cliff when considering the options behind him. The Twins already know they’ll need to replace the production lost when Carlos Correa opts out and signs elsewhere, so looking to make up ground alongside Jeffers could be beneficial. To what level the Twins show aggressiveness when grabbing another backstop will probably indicate plenty as to how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine see 2023 going for Jeffers. If they believe he can be healthy and truly break out, then a middling veteran could probably get the job done. If they want to push for more, someone like the Athletics Sean Murphy makes some sense. Murphy will not come cheap, even from a team like the Athletics where cheap is synonymous with the organization. He’s under team control through the 2025 season and just turned 28 years old. Murphy finished fourth in the American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2020, and grabbed a Gold Glove in 2021. His career 114 OPS+ is notable at the position, and his 120 OPS+ in 2022 was impressive with offense being down across the sport. Oakland could also be motivated to move Murphy as they have plenty of prospect depth behind the plate. Top prospect Tyler Soderstrom can play catcher, as does their 4th overall prospect Daniel Susac. Although Susac has yet to play above Single-A, Soderstrom made it to Triple-A this season as a 20-year-old. This is Murphy’s first season of arbitration eligibility, and he is projected to receive $3.5 million for 2023 per MLB Trade Rumors. That would be an absolute steal for a guy that has already produced 10.6 fWAR over his career and was worth a career-best 5.1 fWAR in 2022. One of the best players at the position, still under team control, coming available is something Minnesota will likely need to consider. Another aspect of the Twins front office leaning heavily into a splash at catcher could be the result of their own valuation of the position throughout the farm. Not only are there no other catchers currently on the 40-man, but it’s a position of weakness across the system as a whole. Andrew Bechtold is at Triple-A but not a highly-rated prospect, and despite the solid year for Chris Williams, he falls into the same boat. Both have spent most of their time playing corner infield positions in their careers. Making a move for Murphy would certainly hurt some of the depth within the Twins system, but it could satisfy a need the organization is dealing with as a whole. Jeffers is younger and under team control through the 2026 season, but allowing him more time to play second fiddle may not be the worst move. Maybe the Twins would prefer a situation where their top option isn't challenge, but like the situation when Garver was present, maybe there's benefit to a 1A and a 1B. With a lineup that could use punch, exploiting a position often without if could be beneficial. How the front office attacks the backup role should remain something of intrigue this winter.
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The Minnesota Twins will soon be without the services of Carlos Correa. Once he opts out of his contract, there is little inclination that he will return for 2023 on a new deal. Needing to replace the production, could Minnesota look behind the plate? Image courtesy of Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports Despite what looked to be like a quality lineup on paper, the 2022 Minnesota Twins found themselves struggling to put runs on the board. This issue only worsened as the injuries mounted, but losing one of their best offensive players in Carlos Correa certainly isn’t going to help things. Needing to replace his presence and improve upon what returns, maybe the Twins look to make a splash behind the dish. Last spring, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine swung a deal that sent Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers. Ultimately that made it possible to pivot from Josh Donaldson and land former slugger Gary Sanchez from New York. The hope was that a fresh start could bring better production. It flopped miserably as Sanchez posted a career-worst 89 OPS+. With Ryan Jeffers missing a substantial amount of the season due to injury, there was little offense from the catching position. As he returns in 2023, there remains plenty of promise in a bat that was his calling card when drafted. We have seen it produce in short bursts, and the front office is undoubtedly hoping 2023 is the breakout season. However, he needs someone to work alongside him, or potentially in front of him. Catcher doesn’t seem like a position the Twins will splurge on, and there are not a ton of options. Grabbing the best catcher available, Willson Contreras, could make some sense. There have been indications that the club would prefer a left-handed bat to platoon with Jeffers behind the plate, but the only free-agent options available are Omar Narvaez, Jason Castro, and Tucker Barnhart. Although Contreras is the same handedness as Jeffers, he would immediately represent a substantial upgrade at the position and give the Twins something similar to that of Garver’s Silver Slugger winning season. Contreras owns a career 115 OPS+ and has routinely launched 20 homers a season while producing a .349 career on-base percentage at a position that does not typically provide offensive production. Contreras is bucking the trend. The Twins signing Contreras would fulfill a need in the form of a big bat, and take them out of having to rotate in veteran retreads as they did with Sandy Leon a season ago. Contreras will be 32 next season, and he has spent a considerable amount of time behind the plate, but positional flexibility is something he has also shown over the course of his career with the Cubs. Ultimately it would seem like a longshot for the Twins to grab the top player on the market at a position, although it just happened eight months ago in the form of Correa. Contreras could help to soften that blow and bring stability to a position where the Twins haven’t had any since Joe Mauer moved to first base. View full article
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With this week's focus on the catcher position, there's plenty of talk about who the Twins might pursue to share time with (or supplant?) Ryan Jeffers in 2023 and beyond. I find myself pondering a more big-picture question, which itself – in a way – has implications on the team's decision making: Have we seen the last catcher win a batting title? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports This past season, Luis Arraez became the first Minnesota Twin to claim a batting title since Joe Mauer last did it in 2009. That was, of course, an MVP season for Mauer, and it marked his third time in four years leading the American League in batting average. As we all know, Mauer was something of a unicorn: the third backstop ever to become a batting champ, and the first to do it in the AL. Needless to say, it has been a historical rarity, but the shifting tides of the game make me wonder if we'll ever see it happen again. In 2009, Mauer was one of nine catchers to qualify for the batting title. Same thing in 2008, and 2006, when he won his other two crowns. Compare that to five catchers who qualified this year, and just two (!) in 2021. Around the major leagues, clubs have progressively altered the way they manage catchers, opting in most cases to spread out the workload rather than placing the full burden on one player – a movement the Twins have fully embraced. Sure, there are still some throwbacks out there like Sean Murphy and J.T. Realmuto, but they're few and far between, and none of them are hitting like prime Joe Mauer. The current landscape really puts into perspective how incredible Mauer was. We're less than a decade removed from a stretch where he bore the rigors of catching over 10 years (albeit with some injury issues mixed in) and slashed .323/.405/.469. He made enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in seven of those campaigns. It's a stretch of performance that, in my opinion, should (and will) get him into the Hall of Fame. But enough reminiscing about the past. Let's turn the clock forward to present day. The Twins now find themselves with a need at catcher, and it's one they could seek to address in a profound way. The big name on this year's offseason class, as covered in our extensive Offseason Handbook chapter on the subject, is Willson Contreras. One of the better free agent catchers to hit free agency in some time, Contreras received his third All-Star nod in 2022 while slashing .243/.349/.466 for the Cubs. His .815 OPS would've ranked third among all Twins, behind only Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Contreras is a highly-regarded star player and easily the pinnacle of the catching market. He's in his prime and coming off a career year. It'll take a very big contract to land him – I guessed 5/100 as a starting point in the Handbook – and that raises some challenging questions about the logic of spending so much on what is, essentially, a part-time player. He's a perfect example of the diminishing durability benchmark for the modern catcher. Despite avoiding major injuries, and producing at an elite rate when on the field, Contreras has qualified for a batting title only once (sans-2020) since debuting back in 2016. That was aback in 2018, when he was 26 and made 544 plate appearances over 138 games (a typical, if not light, workload for a Mauer campaign). Twenty million dollars is a lot of money in annual salary commitment for a team like the Twins. They've got to be smart in how they use it. Allocating such a big share to a player who has played 120 games per year on average, and would probably be in line for a timeshare of sorts here, if the Twins adhere to their existing philosophy ... it could be tough to stomach. And that's beyond all the other built-in risk with a player like Contreras who might have to move off catcher in the coming years anyway. As the mechanisms of Major League Baseball shift, we'll start seeing financial implications play out. With the expectation for a starting pitcher's workload being more in the 150-170 range as compared to the 180-210 range of previous eras, teams will start scaling back the relative amount they're willing to invest in starters (if they haven't already). We'll very likely see a similar effect in the catching market, and Contreras will be a fascinating example to follow. The Twins are among the few franchises to hand out a true mega-deal to a catcher, having signed Mauer for $184 million in 2010. They did so with the belief that he'd continue, at least for a while, to catch 900-1,000 innings per season. It's hard to realistically expect the same from someone like Contreras, who himself will be in the market for a mega-deal. Circling back to the original question posed in this article, the heart of the matter is not so much asking whether a catcher will win a batting title ... but whether it makes sense to invest heavy resources into players who might never qualify for one. View full article
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Despite what looked to be like a quality lineup on paper, the 2022 Minnesota Twins found themselves struggling to put runs on the board. This issue only worsened as the injuries mounted, but losing one of their best offensive players in Carlos Correa certainly isn’t going to help things. Needing to replace his presence and improve upon what returns, maybe the Twins look to make a splash behind the dish. Last spring, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine swung a deal that sent Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers. Ultimately that made it possible to pivot from Josh Donaldson and land former slugger Gary Sanchez from New York. The hope was that a fresh start could bring better production. It flopped miserably as Sanchez posted a career-worst 89 OPS+. With Ryan Jeffers missing a substantial amount of the season due to injury, there was little offense from the catching position. As he returns in 2023, there remains plenty of promise in a bat that was his calling card when drafted. We have seen it produce in short bursts, and the front office is undoubtedly hoping 2023 is the breakout season. However, he needs someone to work alongside him, or potentially in front of him. Catcher doesn’t seem like a position the Twins will splurge on, and there are not a ton of options. Grabbing the best catcher available, Willson Contreras, could make some sense. There have been indications that the club would prefer a left-handed bat to platoon with Jeffers behind the plate, but the only free-agent options available are Omar Narvaez, Jason Castro, and Tucker Barnhart. Although Contreras is the same handedness as Jeffers, he would immediately represent a substantial upgrade at the position and give the Twins something similar to that of Garver’s Silver Slugger winning season. Contreras owns a career 115 OPS+ and has routinely launched 20 homers a season while producing a .349 career on-base percentage at a position that does not typically provide offensive production. Contreras is bucking the trend. The Twins signing Contreras would fulfill a need in the form of a big bat, and take them out of having to rotate in veteran retreads as they did with Sandy Leon a season ago. Contreras will be 32 next season, and he has spent a considerable amount of time behind the plate, but positional flexibility is something he has also shown over the course of his career with the Cubs. Ultimately it would seem like a longshot for the Twins to grab the top player on the market at a position, although it just happened eight months ago in the form of Correa. Contreras could help to soften that blow and bring stability to a position where the Twins haven’t had any since Joe Mauer moved to first base.
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This past season, Luis Arraez became the first Minnesota Twin to claim a batting title since Joe Mauer last did it in 2009. That was, of course, an MVP season for Mauer, and it marked his third time in four years leading the American League in batting average. As we all know, Mauer was something of a unicorn: the third backstop ever to become a batting champ, and the first to do it in the AL. Needless to say, it has been a historical rarity, but the shifting tides of the game make me wonder if we'll ever see it happen again. In 2009, Mauer was one of nine catchers to qualify for the batting title. Same thing in 2008, and 2006, when he won his other two crowns. Compare that to five catchers who qualified this year, and just two (!) in 2021. Around the major leagues, clubs have progressively altered the way they manage catchers, opting in most cases to spread out the workload rather than placing the full burden on one player – a movement the Twins have fully embraced. Sure, there are still some throwbacks out there like Sean Murphy and J.T. Realmuto, but they're few and far between, and none of them are hitting like prime Joe Mauer. The current landscape really puts into perspective how incredible Mauer was. We're less than a decade removed from a stretch where he bore the rigors of catching over 10 years (albeit with some injury issues mixed in) and slashed .323/.405/.469. He made enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in seven of those campaigns. It's a stretch of performance that, in my opinion, should (and will) get him into the Hall of Fame. But enough reminiscing about the past. Let's turn the clock forward to present day. The Twins now find themselves with a need at catcher, and it's one they could seek to address in a profound way. The big name on this year's offseason class, as covered in our extensive Offseason Handbook chapter on the subject, is Willson Contreras. One of the better free agent catchers to hit free agency in some time, Contreras received his third All-Star nod in 2022 while slashing .243/.349/.466 for the Cubs. His .815 OPS would've ranked third among all Twins, behind only Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Contreras is a highly-regarded star player and easily the pinnacle of the catching market. He's in his prime and coming off a career year. It'll take a very big contract to land him – I guessed 5/100 as a starting point in the Handbook – and that raises some challenging questions about the logic of spending so much on what is, essentially, a part-time player. He's a perfect example of the diminishing durability benchmark for the modern catcher. Despite avoiding major injuries, and producing at an elite rate when on the field, Contreras has qualified for a batting title only once (sans-2020) since debuting back in 2016. That was aback in 2018, when he was 26 and made 544 plate appearances over 138 games (a typical, if not light, workload for a Mauer campaign). Twenty million dollars is a lot of money in annual salary commitment for a team like the Twins. They've got to be smart in how they use it. Allocating such a big share to a player who has played 120 games per year on average, and would probably be in line for a timeshare of sorts here, if the Twins adhere to their existing philosophy ... it could be tough to stomach. And that's beyond all the other built-in risk with a player like Contreras who might have to move off catcher in the coming years anyway. As the mechanisms of Major League Baseball shift, we'll start seeing financial implications play out. With the expectation for a starting pitcher's workload being more in the 150-170 range as compared to the 180-210 range of previous eras, teams will start scaling back the relative amount they're willing to invest in starters (if they haven't already). We'll very likely see a similar effect in the catching market, and Contreras will be a fascinating example to follow. The Twins are among the few franchises to hand out a true mega-deal to a catcher, having signed Mauer for $184 million in 2010. They did so with the belief that he'd continue, at least for a while, to catch 900-1,000 innings per season. It's hard to realistically expect the same from someone like Contreras, who himself will be in the market for a mega-deal. Circling back to the original question posed in this article, the heart of the matter is not so much asking whether a catcher will win a batting title ... but whether it makes sense to invest heavy resources into players who might never qualify for one.
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The Minnesota Twins had a less-than-ideal catching situation at times throughout the 2022 season. As they turn the page to 2023, it’s become clear that the front office views Ryan Jeffers as the guy they’re all-in behind. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Prior to 2022, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made a somewhat surprising move in dealing Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers. Garver has had injuries throughout his career but was a Silver Slugger-winning backstop, and among the best offensive producers in the game when healthy. That left Ryan Jeffers and Ben Rortvedt as the only catchers on the 40-man roster. Not long after, Minnesota pivoted again when they sent Josh Donaldson and Rortvedt to the New York Yankees for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez. The hope was that Sanchez would benefit from a change of scenery. He’s never been a good defensive player, but the Twins have done a great job coaching catchers, although Tanner Swanson was a leader in that department and is now with the Yankees. Sanchez had once flashed a big bat, however, and there was hope that it would return. Fast forward to where we are now, and Jeffers is the lone catcher on Minnesota’s 40-man roster. Sanchez will be a free agent after the World Series, as will Sandy Leon. Sanchez posted a career-worst season and shouldn’t be entertained as an option. Leon found himself injured down the stretch and wound up on the 60-day injured list. With Caleb Hamilton being designated for assignment and subsequently claimed by the Boston Red Sox, no immediate backup presents itself. Ultimately, the starting option is the way Falvey and Levine would have it. Jeffers was seen as a reach in the Major League Baseball draft, with some analysts not knowing if he could ever stick behind the plate. Since, he’s become a solid to above-average defender and the carrying tool has always been his bat. The .648 OPS in 2022 is not good by any means, but the .756 OPS across 24 games prior to his injury suggested the bat was heating up. Catcher is not traditionally a position of great offensive production across the Major Leagues. Only 10 teams generated more than 2.7 fWAR in 2022 from their backstops. Even with as bad or rotating as Minnesota’s situation was, the 1.8 fWAR from the catching position ranked 13th in the sport. It’s really a situation of a few haves, and a ton of have-nots. The have-nots come in varying degrees of success, however, and the Twins would like to remain in the middle of the pack, if not move up that list. With Jeffers, Rocco Baldelli has upside offensively while getting a strong defensive option. Behind him in 2023, it’s almost a guarantee that Minnesota will need another Leon type. There isn’t a single prospect in the Twins' Top 30 that calls behind the plate home, and the best-case player with upside is Jair Camargo, who experienced a breakout year at Single and Double-A as a 22-year-old. However, Camargo can be a free agent following the World Series too. There’s more than a handful of capable veterans to spell Jeffers on the open market, and while Willson Contreras is the gold standard, it would seem odd for the Twins to spring for such an expense behind the plate. Ultimately, this is now the 25-year-old Jeffers' position to be in for 120-plus games per season, and the front office wants to cash in on their belief from the 2018 draft. View full article
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Prior to 2022, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made a somewhat surprising move in dealing Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers. Garver has had injuries throughout his career but was a Silver Slugger-winning backstop, and among the best offensive producers in the game when healthy. That left Ryan Jeffers and Ben Rortvedt as the only catchers on the 40-man roster. Not long after, Minnesota pivoted again when they sent Josh Donaldson and Rortvedt to the New York Yankees for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez. The hope was that Sanchez would benefit from a change of scenery. He’s never been a good defensive player, but the Twins have done a great job coaching catchers, although Tanner Swanson was a leader in that department and is now with the Yankees. Sanchez had once flashed a big bat, however, and there was hope that it would return. Fast forward to where we are now, and Jeffers is the lone catcher on Minnesota’s 40-man roster. Sanchez will be a free agent after the World Series, as will Sandy Leon. Sanchez posted a career-worst season and shouldn’t be entertained as an option. Leon found himself injured down the stretch and wound up on the 60-day injured list. With Caleb Hamilton being designated for assignment and subsequently claimed by the Boston Red Sox, no immediate backup presents itself. Ultimately, the starting option is the way Falvey and Levine would have it. Jeffers was seen as a reach in the Major League Baseball draft, with some analysts not knowing if he could ever stick behind the plate. Since, he’s become a solid to above-average defender and the carrying tool has always been his bat. The .648 OPS in 2022 is not good by any means, but the .756 OPS across 24 games prior to his injury suggested the bat was heating up. Catcher is not traditionally a position of great offensive production across the Major Leagues. Only 10 teams generated more than 2.7 fWAR in 2022 from their backstops. Even with as bad or rotating as Minnesota’s situation was, the 1.8 fWAR from the catching position ranked 13th in the sport. It’s really a situation of a few haves, and a ton of have-nots. The have-nots come in varying degrees of success, however, and the Twins would like to remain in the middle of the pack, if not move up that list. With Jeffers, Rocco Baldelli has upside offensively while getting a strong defensive option. Behind him in 2023, it’s almost a guarantee that Minnesota will need another Leon type. There isn’t a single prospect in the Twins' Top 30 that calls behind the plate home, and the best-case player with upside is Jair Camargo, who experienced a breakout year at Single and Double-A as a 22-year-old. However, Camargo can be a free agent following the World Series too. There’s more than a handful of capable veterans to spell Jeffers on the open market, and while Willson Contreras is the gold standard, it would seem odd for the Twins to spring for such an expense behind the plate. Ultimately, this is now the 25-year-old Jeffers' position to be in for 120-plus games per season, and the front office wants to cash in on their belief from the 2018 draft.
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What is the Biggest Move Made by the Twins Before the Trade Deadline?
Ted Schwerzler posted an article in Twins
Although this is trade deadline season, roster decisions aren’t just going to be made from the perspective of adding talent. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be tasked with figuring out which players make sense on the active roster now, and who they see as needing to be a part of the future. Considering three external options and one internal, which of the four following scenarios winds up being the most seismic move made in Twins Territory over the next week? 1. Miguel Sano gets DFA’d Having last played on April 30 and then undergoing knee surgery, Sano has found himself working his way back yet again. He began a rehab assignment on July 4 and posted a very strong 1.217 OPS across 12 games in his 20 allowable days. The biggest detractor for any team being interested in acquiring Sano is the correlation between production and pay. He’s still owed something north of $6 million combining the duration of this season and his buyout. Minnesota could swallow some of that when trying to find a trade partner, but he could also be a candidate to be DFA’d. Sano has had ups and downs in a Twins uniform, but leaving in a season having played less than 25 games and with a sub .500 OPS would be about as low as it gets. 2. A Frontline Starter is Acquired Fans have been clamoring since the offseason for Minnesota to acquire top-tier pitching. Sonny Gray qualified as that when the front office flipped former first-round pick Chase Petty. It’s clear that this rotation could use someone of equal or similar-ilk when looking towards the Postseason. There are not exactly that many names out there to be had, but this group would look like a deal for Frankie Montas, a pact for Luis Castillo, acquiring Tyler Mahle, or potentially netting Blake Snell. There are other starters that will be moved, but it’s hard to come up with many more names that will reach this level. 3. High-Leverage Relief is Grabbed Alongside a starter, Minnesota absolutely needs help in the bullpen. It’s been one of the worst units in the league for significant stretches this season, and outside of Jhoan Duran, the group has largely been shuffling deck chairs. It’s good that Tyler Duffey seems to have turned a corner, and maybe someone else emerges down the stretch, but it’s hard to view Jorge Alcala as a potential to return prominently at this point. A reliever in this category would be along the lines of Pirates All-Star David Bednar or Rockies closer Daniel Bard. If the Twins are going to be serious about the bullpen, they need a mate for Duran and someone that can confidently eat outs in the late innings. 4. Shock the Lineup With a Bat Arguably one of the hottest and coldest things for Rocco Baldelli’s club this season has been the lineup and run production. The worst position on the roster offensively has been behind the plate, and that was before Ryan Jeffers suffered a two-month injury. There aren't a ton of places for the Twins to prioritize a bat, but a backstop could be it. Willson Contreras is all but certain to be moved by the Cubs, and although it’s a luxury, man would that elevate Minnesota on both sides of the ball. Bovada also tabbed Minnesota as favorites to acquire the Nationals Jose Bell, which would be an odd fit, but he’s certainly been great this season. Which of these scenarios would be most surprising to you? Which one seems most likely?- 22 comments
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The Minnesota Twins are guaranteed to be active during the next week. They have some significant roster decisions to address, both from an internal and talent acquisition standpoint. Looking at a few possibilities, all of the options could send substantial waves throughout the organization. Although this is trade deadline season, roster decisions aren’t just going to be made from the perspective of adding talent. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be tasked with figuring out which players make sense on the active roster now, and who they see as needing to be a part of the future. Considering three external options and one internal, which of the four following scenarios winds up being the most seismic move made in Twins Territory over the next week? 1. Miguel Sano gets DFA’d Having last played on April 30 and then undergoing knee surgery, Sano has found himself working his way back yet again. He began a rehab assignment on July 4 and posted a very strong 1.217 OPS across 12 games in his 20 allowable days. The biggest detractor for any team being interested in acquiring Sano is the correlation between production and pay. He’s still owed something north of $6 million combining the duration of this season and his buyout. Minnesota could swallow some of that when trying to find a trade partner, but he could also be a candidate to be DFA’d. Sano has had ups and downs in a Twins uniform, but leaving in a season having played less than 25 games and with a sub .500 OPS would be about as low as it gets. 2. A Frontline Starter is Acquired Fans have been clamoring since the offseason for Minnesota to acquire top-tier pitching. Sonny Gray qualified as that when the front office flipped former first-round pick Chase Petty. It’s clear that this rotation could use someone of equal or similar-ilk when looking towards the Postseason. There are not exactly that many names out there to be had, but this group would look like a deal for Frankie Montas, a pact for Luis Castillo, acquiring Tyler Mahle, or potentially netting Blake Snell. There are other starters that will be moved, but it’s hard to come up with many more names that will reach this level. 3. High-Leverage Relief is Grabbed Alongside a starter, Minnesota absolutely needs help in the bullpen. It’s been one of the worst units in the league for significant stretches this season, and outside of Jhoan Duran, the group has largely been shuffling deck chairs. It’s good that Tyler Duffey seems to have turned a corner, and maybe someone else emerges down the stretch, but it’s hard to view Jorge Alcala as a potential to return prominently at this point. A reliever in this category would be along the lines of Pirates All-Star David Bednar or Rockies closer Daniel Bard. If the Twins are going to be serious about the bullpen, they need a mate for Duran and someone that can confidently eat outs in the late innings. 4. Shock the Lineup With a Bat Arguably one of the hottest and coldest things for Rocco Baldelli’s club this season has been the lineup and run production. The worst position on the roster offensively has been behind the plate, and that was before Ryan Jeffers suffered a two-month injury. There aren't a ton of places for the Twins to prioritize a bat, but a backstop could be it. Willson Contreras is all but certain to be moved by the Cubs, and although it’s a luxury, man would that elevate Minnesota on both sides of the ball. Bovada also tabbed Minnesota as favorites to acquire the Nationals Jose Bell, which would be an odd fit, but he’s certainly been great this season. Which of these scenarios would be most surprising to you? Which one seems most likely? View full article
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Minnesota’s trade deadline shopping list should include multiple pitchers, but that doesn’t mean other parts of the roster can’t be addressed. Here are five veteran catchers expected to be available at the deadline. Ryan Jeffers’ recent thumb surgery will sideline him for up to two months, which may force the Twins to seek a veteran catcher to join Gary Sanchez. Caleb Hamilton will get the first chance to serve in a backup role, but the Twins may want someone with more big-league experience for the stretch run. Each of the catchers below comes with a different cost, and that is certainly something the team will have to factor into any decision. Tucker Barnhart, Tigers Sometimes trades in the same division can be challenging, but Tucker Barnhart isn’t going to cost a lot to acquire. He is a pending free agent, but he’s caught most of his team’s games for six of the last seven seasons. In 2022, he has hit .211/.270/.246 (.516) with six doubles across 61 games. Behind the plate, his framing ranks in the 72nd percentile. He is a backup at this point in his career, but he should be cheap for a team to acquire. Willson Contreras, Cubs Willson Contreras will likely be the best catcher dealt before the deadline. He’s a three-time All-Star, and he’s having arguably his best offensive season. In the season’s first half, he hit .253/.366/.455 (.821) with 17 doubles, 13 home runs, and a career-high 130 OPS+. He is not known as a strong defensive catcher, but his bat makes up for any defensive flaws. Contreras is a pending free agent, so a team is acquiring two months of his services. He will likely cost more prospect capital than the Twins are willing to use. Yan Gomes, Cubs Another catcher to consider on the Cubs is Yan Gomes. Unlike Contreras, he is under team control through 2024 for $6 million per season. Gomes has been an above-average catcher throughout his career, but he is 34 years old and might be relegated to backup duties. His pop time to second base ranks in the 71st percentile, and his framing ranks in the 55th percentile. During the 2022 season, he is hitting .213/.231/.311 (.542) with seven doubles and three home runs in 51 games. Sean Murphy, Athletics Sean Murphy might be the most intriguing name on this list, especially if the Twins are also interested in acquiring Oakland’s Frankie Montas. Murphy is pre-arbitration eligible and is under team control through the 2025 season. In 87 games this season, he is hitting .241/.314/.413 (.726) with 22 doubles and ten home runs. Defensively, he is one of baseball’s best backstops as his pop time and framing rank in the 88th percentile or higher. Kurt Suzuki, Angels Another cheap catching option is old friend Kurt Suzuki. In his age-38 season, he has a .546 OPS and a 56 OPS+, so it’s not clear home much he has left in the tank. Defense has never been his calling card, but he’s a familiar name to this organization. Suzuki should cost very little to acquire. Do you think the Twins should target any of these catchers before the deadline? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article
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Ryan Jeffers’ recent thumb surgery will sideline him for up to two months, which may force the Twins to seek a veteran catcher to join Gary Sanchez. Caleb Hamilton will get the first chance to serve in a backup role, but the Twins may want someone with more big-league experience for the stretch run. Each of the catchers below comes with a different cost, and that is certainly something the team will have to factor into any decision. Tucker Barnhart, Tigers Sometimes trades in the same division can be challenging, but Tucker Barnhart isn’t going to cost a lot to acquire. He is a pending free agent, but he’s caught most of his team’s games for six of the last seven seasons. In 2022, he has hit .211/.270/.246 (.516) with six doubles across 61 games. Behind the plate, his framing ranks in the 72nd percentile. He is a backup at this point in his career, but he should be cheap for a team to acquire. Willson Contreras, Cubs Willson Contreras will likely be the best catcher dealt before the deadline. He’s a three-time All-Star, and he’s having arguably his best offensive season. In the season’s first half, he hit .253/.366/.455 (.821) with 17 doubles, 13 home runs, and a career-high 130 OPS+. He is not known as a strong defensive catcher, but his bat makes up for any defensive flaws. Contreras is a pending free agent, so a team is acquiring two months of his services. He will likely cost more prospect capital than the Twins are willing to use. Yan Gomes, Cubs Another catcher to consider on the Cubs is Yan Gomes. Unlike Contreras, he is under team control through 2024 for $6 million per season. Gomes has been an above-average catcher throughout his career, but he is 34 years old and might be relegated to backup duties. His pop time to second base ranks in the 71st percentile, and his framing ranks in the 55th percentile. During the 2022 season, he is hitting .213/.231/.311 (.542) with seven doubles and three home runs in 51 games. Sean Murphy, Athletics Sean Murphy might be the most intriguing name on this list, especially if the Twins are also interested in acquiring Oakland’s Frankie Montas. Murphy is pre-arbitration eligible and is under team control through the 2025 season. In 87 games this season, he is hitting .241/.314/.413 (.726) with 22 doubles and ten home runs. Defensively, he is one of baseball’s best backstops as his pop time and framing rank in the 88th percentile or higher. Kurt Suzuki, Angels Another cheap catching option is old friend Kurt Suzuki. In his age-38 season, he has a .546 OPS and a 56 OPS+, so it’s not clear home much he has left in the tank. Defense has never been his calling card, but he’s a familiar name to this organization. Suzuki should cost very little to acquire. Do you think the Twins should target any of these catchers before the deadline? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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The Cubs didn't even feign an attempt at contention this year, so they're right where they expected to be. In the cellar, and acting as sellers. So who's available? The Cubs need pitching, and specifically, they need to add young pitchers with upside. The Twins have a few of those. Top Target David Robertson, RH Reliever In 2019, it looked like injuries were going to curtail an illustrious career as closer and setup man. For a decade, Robertson had been one of the best in the biz. He underwent Tommy John surgery and it looked like the end of the road. But he wasn't done. One year ago, the 37-year-old was the closer for Team USA in the Olympics in Tokyo, helping the team to a silver medal. He was a free agent and pitched a couple of games for Frank Viola’s High Point pitching staff in the independent Atlantic League. After the Olympics, he signed with the Rays and joined the team on September 1st. He turned that opportunity into one-year contract with the Cubs. As of the All-Star break, he had a dazzling 1.93 ERA and 11.6 K/9 rate as the team’s closer, appearing to be very much back to form. He'll be one of the most sought-after targets on the deadline market. Other Targets of Interest Willson Contreras, Catcher Contreras is the other big piece for the Cubs to deal at the deadline. The 30-year-old is a free agent at season’s end and one of the top backstops in the game. Good hitter, tons of power, and solid defense. But should the Twins spend any resources on a catcher (or any non-pitcher) at this point? The Ryan Jeffers injury might change their view on this. You're reading an excerpt of the 2022's Twins Daily Trade Deadline Primer about potential trade targets that we are providing free to Twins Daily's Caretakers. If you sign up now to be a Caretaker, you can download all six Divisional Dossiers as they're released, including the full version of this one, which we sent out to Caretakers earlier today. Plus, you'll get a free Offseason Handbook this fall and other perks. More importantly, you're helping support the writers and workers that make Twins Daily possible and keeping it viable for future generations of Twins fans. Thanks! Mychal Givens, RH Reliever Veteran reliever with a ton of late-innings experience. Fastball velocity down to 94 MPH average, but also has a slider and a changeup. Sleeper Target Marcus Stroman, RH Starter The Twins were not in on Marcus Stroman before he signed his three-year, $71 million with the Cubs – to the lament of many fans. He recently came off the IL with a shoulder issue, and he has struggled this year. He’s also got about $50 million left over the remainder of his contract. If healthy (a big if), Stroman can provide good innings, and maybe even be a postseason difference-maker. Huge risk, but maybe the Cubs would take on some of the contract for a better prospect. View full article
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The Cubs need pitching, and specifically, they need to add young pitchers with upside. The Twins have a few of those. Top Target David Robertson, RH Reliever In 2019, it looked like injuries were going to curtail an illustrious career as closer and setup man. For a decade, Robertson had been one of the best in the biz. He underwent Tommy John surgery and it looked like the end of the road. But he wasn't done. One year ago, the 37-year-old was the closer for Team USA in the Olympics in Tokyo, helping the team to a silver medal. He was a free agent and pitched a couple of games for Frank Viola’s High Point pitching staff in the independent Atlantic League. After the Olympics, he signed with the Rays and joined the team on September 1st. He turned that opportunity into one-year contract with the Cubs. As of the All-Star break, he had a dazzling 1.93 ERA and 11.6 K/9 rate as the team’s closer, appearing to be very much back to form. He'll be one of the most sought-after targets on the deadline market. Other Targets of Interest Willson Contreras, Catcher Contreras is the other big piece for the Cubs to deal at the deadline. The 30-year-old is a free agent at season’s end and one of the top backstops in the game. Good hitter, tons of power, and solid defense. But should the Twins spend any resources on a catcher (or any non-pitcher) at this point? The Ryan Jeffers injury might change their view on this. You're reading an excerpt of the 2022's Twins Daily Trade Deadline Primer about potential trade targets that we are providing free to Twins Daily's Caretakers. If you sign up now to be a Caretaker, you can download all six Divisional Dossiers as they're released, including the full version of this one, which we sent out to Caretakers earlier today. Plus, you'll get a free Offseason Handbook this fall and other perks. More importantly, you're helping support the writers and workers that make Twins Daily possible and keeping it viable for future generations of Twins fans. Thanks! Mychal Givens, RH Reliever Veteran reliever with a ton of late-innings experience. Fastball velocity down to 94 MPH average, but also has a slider and a changeup. Sleeper Target Marcus Stroman, RH Starter The Twins were not in on Marcus Stroman before he signed his three-year, $71 million with the Cubs – to the lament of many fans. He recently came off the IL with a shoulder issue, and he has struggled this year. He’s also got about $50 million left over the remainder of his contract. If healthy (a big if), Stroman can provide good innings, and maybe even be a postseason difference-maker. Huge risk, but maybe the Cubs would take on some of the contract for a better prospect.
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You sent over some good Minnesota Twins questions and topics of discussion, here are my answers. Carlos Correa, Willson Contreras, Juan Soto trades, building a World Series roster, Luis Castillo trades and bullpen prospects/general relief help were among the topics discussed. View full video
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You sent over some good Minnesota Twins questions and topics of discussion, here are my answers. Carlos Correa, Willson Contreras, Juan Soto trades, building a World Series roster, Luis Castillo trades and bullpen prospects/general relief help were among the topics discussed.
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Coming into this season, it was clear there was a changing of the guard behind the plate for the Minnesota Twins. Mitch Garver was sent to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Gary Sanchez was acquired from the New York Yankees. Now halfway into the year, it’s the one position where offensive production is lacking. Ryan Jeffers was seen as a bat-first player when the Twins drafted him, and there were questions as to whether he’d ever stick behind the plate. Fast forward to where we are now, and Jeffers has turned himself into one of the better receivers across the league. Unfortunately, the bat that played over 26 games in 2021 has been nonexistent the past two seasons. Garver and Jeffers split time last season, with the latter getting in 85 games. Across 293 plate appearances for the Twins last season, Jeffers put up a .670 OPS which translated to an 84 OPS+. In 206 plate appearances thus far this season he owns a lesser .666 OPS but given offensive decline as a whole, that translates to a better 92 OPS+. That means Jeffers has failed to be a league-average hitter for either of the past two seasons. The Twins Trade Manifesto: 49 Possible Deadline Targets Maybe that works as his framing plays, but it’s not as though Jeffers is a stalwart in all areas with the glove. Jeffers has already allowed five passed balls in 230 less innings than he recorded six last season. Although the Twins receiving style doesn’t necessarily put emphasis on catching base stealers, Jeffers has thrown out just six of 35 base runners. That 17% falls well below the 24% league average, a mark that Jeffers was within one percent of last season. Then there’s Gary Sanchez. It’s been peaks and valleys with the former Yankees backstop. Sanchez owns a better .702 OPS and has basically been league average with his bat the past two seasons. Offensively he’s not the complete non-factor he was in 2018 or 2020, but at league-average, his approach leaves plenty to be desired. Through 67 games, Sanchez has hit 10 homers, a bit behind his pace from last season that resulted in 23 longballs. His on-base production has dipped significantly however, in that he owns an ugly 73/17 K/BB. Last season, despite a .204 average, he posted a .307 OBP. This season there’s just a 60 point split between the two, and his .281 OBP has resulted in a power-or-nothing approach. Defensively Sanchez has fewer passed balls than his teammate, and throwing out seven of 23 would-be-base-stealers has him above league average at 30%. He’s not as good of a receiver, but has made notable strides that Minnesota no doubt appreciates. These two players combined could probably provide something of more use, but on their own each is coming up just short. That leaves the front office with a question as to whether this is a position to address before the trade deadline flies by. One of the biggest names available from a hitting standpoint is veteran catcher Willson Contreras. The Chicago Cubs backstop is all but certain to be moved as he’s a free agent following this season. His .867 OPS is otherworldly at a position not typically ripe with offense production. He’s also solid behind the dish defensively, and would give Minnesota an option to upgrade their worst position. How a catcher factors in for the Twins remains intriguing. Jeffers, Sanchez, and a third player would not all fit on the active roster. Someone would almost have to be moved in any deal that acquires the position, but that could send ripple effects through the clubhouse. There’s also the reality that Minnesota’s 40-man roster is incredibly thin behind the plate after the two included on the 26-man roster, and having options for the future needs to be a focus. I still think it’s unlikely the Twins trade for a bat, especially in needing so much pitching help, but if they do, adding to a position of need and swinging for one of the best in the game at it would hardly be unwelcomed. What do you think? Should the Twins add a catcher at the deadline? Is someone like Contreras going to cost too much? View full article
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Ryan Jeffers was seen as a bat-first player when the Twins drafted him, and there were questions as to whether he’d ever stick behind the plate. Fast forward to where we are now, and Jeffers has turned himself into one of the better receivers across the league. Unfortunately, the bat that played over 26 games in 2021 has been nonexistent the past two seasons. Garver and Jeffers split time last season, with the latter getting in 85 games. Across 293 plate appearances for the Twins last season, Jeffers put up a .670 OPS which translated to an 84 OPS+. In 206 plate appearances thus far this season he owns a lesser .666 OPS but given offensive decline as a whole, that translates to a better 92 OPS+. That means Jeffers has failed to be a league-average hitter for either of the past two seasons. The Twins Trade Manifesto: 49 Possible Deadline Targets Maybe that works as his framing plays, but it’s not as though Jeffers is a stalwart in all areas with the glove. Jeffers has already allowed five passed balls in 230 less innings than he recorded six last season. Although the Twins receiving style doesn’t necessarily put emphasis on catching base stealers, Jeffers has thrown out just six of 35 base runners. That 17% falls well below the 24% league average, a mark that Jeffers was within one percent of last season. Then there’s Gary Sanchez. It’s been peaks and valleys with the former Yankees backstop. Sanchez owns a better .702 OPS and has basically been league average with his bat the past two seasons. Offensively he’s not the complete non-factor he was in 2018 or 2020, but at league-average, his approach leaves plenty to be desired. Through 67 games, Sanchez has hit 10 homers, a bit behind his pace from last season that resulted in 23 longballs. His on-base production has dipped significantly however, in that he owns an ugly 73/17 K/BB. Last season, despite a .204 average, he posted a .307 OBP. This season there’s just a 60 point split between the two, and his .281 OBP has resulted in a power-or-nothing approach. Defensively Sanchez has fewer passed balls than his teammate, and throwing out seven of 23 would-be-base-stealers has him above league average at 30%. He’s not as good of a receiver, but has made notable strides that Minnesota no doubt appreciates. These two players combined could probably provide something of more use, but on their own each is coming up just short. That leaves the front office with a question as to whether this is a position to address before the trade deadline flies by. One of the biggest names available from a hitting standpoint is veteran catcher Willson Contreras. The Chicago Cubs backstop is all but certain to be moved as he’s a free agent following this season. His .867 OPS is otherworldly at a position not typically ripe with offense production. He’s also solid behind the dish defensively, and would give Minnesota an option to upgrade their worst position. How a catcher factors in for the Twins remains intriguing. Jeffers, Sanchez, and a third player would not all fit on the active roster. Someone would almost have to be moved in any deal that acquires the position, but that could send ripple effects through the clubhouse. There’s also the reality that Minnesota’s 40-man roster is incredibly thin behind the plate after the two included on the 26-man roster, and having options for the future needs to be a focus. I still think it’s unlikely the Twins trade for a bat, especially in needing so much pitching help, but if they do, adding to a position of need and swinging for one of the best in the game at it would hardly be unwelcomed. What do you think? Should the Twins add a catcher at the deadline? Is someone like Contreras going to cost too much?
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We are officially into trade deadline season and the Minnesota Twins are leading the American League Central Division. It’s probably not a certainty that the club would need to add a bat, but if they want to get creative there’s roster spots to improve upon. Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. It’s on the mound that most of the focus should be pointed, but there’s little reason to turn away from a competent hitter if a fit is deemed strong and valuable. The 5 Best Starting Pitching Trade Targets The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets Rocco Baldelli’s club is less pressed in the lineup, even though they’ve gone silent at times. Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff have solidified first base for the most part, and Jorge Polanco has returned healthy at second base. Minnesota has flexibility at third, and Luis Arraez has been great about filling in wherever. The outfield is also largely set and knowing Trevor Larnach will be back helps. If the Twins were to acquire a bat, it probably comes as a utility type or behind the plate. Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire: Brandon Drury - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 16 HR 124 OPS+ The Reds have plenty to piece out, and while they aren’t as bad as they started, this isn’t an organization that wants to win either. Drury is a stereotypical utility man that can play all over the diamond. He’s played every infield position aside from appearing behind the plate this season, and he was previously an outfielder at times for both the Mets and Blue Jays. This is easily a career year for the veteran, and the Reds will look to extract value out of a guy making just $900k. He did put up a solid 2021 season as well, but both of these sample sizes are relatively small. Drury is posting a career best 11% barrel rate, but his expected stats are below actual production. He’s seen success by lowering whiff and chase rates which is a solid procedural change. A free agent following the season, there shouldn’t be much in the way of acquisition cost here. Christian Walker - Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 21 HR 123 OPS+ You could call Walker a slugger at first base but that would be selling his impact short. Yes, he blasts the ball into the seats and isn’t a high average guy by any means, but he’s also a very good defender. With 12 defensive runs saved and eight outs above average, he brings plenty of value to the lineup. Walker’s expected batting average is also nearly 70 points higher than it currently rests, and his expected slugging percentage checks in at a whopping .598. He’s barrelling baseballs at a ridiculous 15% of the time, and his .183 BABIP suggests even more offense could be had here. Walker is playing on a $2.6 million deal this season and remains under team control for each of the next two seasons. Minnesota making a move at first base would largely be reflective of how they want to use Miranda, Kirilloff, and Gio Urshela. Ian Happ - Chicago Cubs - 27 yrs old 2.3 fWAR 8 HR 136 OPS+ A former 9th overall pick, Happ’s value isn’t solely rooted in the longball. He’s at home in the outfield and would be able to play a strong centerfield, but he can also play on the dirt. Happ has previously earned MVP votes and he’s posted better than a league-average OPS+ each of his six pro seasons. Happ’s barrel rate is down some, but his expected slugging percentage suggests there’s a bit of room to grow. He’s never previously experienced this muted level of home run production, and coming off of 25 last year, a second half surge may happen for an acquiring club. Happ is making $6.85 million this year and is arbitration eligible again in 2023 before becoming a free agent. Josh Bell - Washington Nationals - 29 yrs old 2.5 fWAR 12 HR 164 OPS+ On a one-year deal with the Nationals, it always seemed like Bell may wind up as trade fodder at the deadline. He hasn’t produced the same home run numbers we’ve seen from him before, but this is a career year by every other measure. Bell’s hard hit rate dropping below 30% for the first time in his career is likely part of the lost power, but his 8.8% whiff rate is lower than anything he’s shown since 2016 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Traditionally somewhat of a lackluster defensive option, he’s produced positive numbers by both DRS and OAA this season. Bell should be one of the most coveted bats on the market this year, and at $10 million, for the season, his remaining money won’t be substantial. Willson Contreras - Chicago Cubs - 30 yrs old 22.9 fWAR 13 HR 152 OPS+ The Cubs have some very intriguing options all over the diamond, but there’s no denying the best talent is their catcher, Contreras. Offensively he’s pulverizing the baseball and experiencing a career year. The expected stats suggest this is substantiated, and if anything, may trend even further upwards. The 44.8% hard hit rate is a career high, and not at all a surprise with how well he’s seeing the ball at the plate. A knock is probably the defense, which has not previously been the case. After 8 DRS last season, Contreras is at -6 thus far in 2022. He’s not a good framer either, but is throwing out a league average amount of would be base stealers. Minnesota may benefit from a catching upgrade, but it’d be quite a luxury for them to go get the best bat available at the position. Cabrera is making $9.625 million this season in his final year of arbitration, and he’ll be a free agent following the season. If Minnesota targets a bat, who would you like them to grab and why? View full article
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Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. It’s on the mound that most of the focus should be pointed, but there’s little reason to turn away from a competent hitter if a fit is deemed strong and valuable. The 5 Best Starting Pitching Trade Targets The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets Rocco Baldelli’s club is less pressed in the lineup, even though they’ve gone silent at times. Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff have solidified first base for the most part, and Jorge Polanco has returned healthy at second base. Minnesota has flexibility at third, and Luis Arraez has been great about filling in wherever. The outfield is also largely set and knowing Trevor Larnach will be back helps. If the Twins were to acquire a bat, it probably comes as a utility type or behind the plate. Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire: Brandon Drury - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 16 HR 124 OPS+ The Reds have plenty to piece out, and while they aren’t as bad as they started, this isn’t an organization that wants to win either. Drury is a stereotypical utility man that can play all over the diamond. He’s played every infield position aside from appearing behind the plate this season, and he was previously an outfielder at times for both the Mets and Blue Jays. This is easily a career year for the veteran, and the Reds will look to extract value out of a guy making just $900k. He did put up a solid 2021 season as well, but both of these sample sizes are relatively small. Drury is posting a career best 11% barrel rate, but his expected stats are below actual production. He’s seen success by lowering whiff and chase rates which is a solid procedural change. A free agent following the season, there shouldn’t be much in the way of acquisition cost here. Christian Walker - Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 21 HR 123 OPS+ You could call Walker a slugger at first base but that would be selling his impact short. Yes, he blasts the ball into the seats and isn’t a high average guy by any means, but he’s also a very good defender. With 12 defensive runs saved and eight outs above average, he brings plenty of value to the lineup. Walker’s expected batting average is also nearly 70 points higher than it currently rests, and his expected slugging percentage checks in at a whopping .598. He’s barrelling baseballs at a ridiculous 15% of the time, and his .183 BABIP suggests even more offense could be had here. Walker is playing on a $2.6 million deal this season and remains under team control for each of the next two seasons. Minnesota making a move at first base would largely be reflective of how they want to use Miranda, Kirilloff, and Gio Urshela. Ian Happ - Chicago Cubs - 27 yrs old 2.3 fWAR 8 HR 136 OPS+ A former 9th overall pick, Happ’s value isn’t solely rooted in the longball. He’s at home in the outfield and would be able to play a strong centerfield, but he can also play on the dirt. Happ has previously earned MVP votes and he’s posted better than a league-average OPS+ each of his six pro seasons. Happ’s barrel rate is down some, but his expected slugging percentage suggests there’s a bit of room to grow. He’s never previously experienced this muted level of home run production, and coming off of 25 last year, a second half surge may happen for an acquiring club. Happ is making $6.85 million this year and is arbitration eligible again in 2023 before becoming a free agent. Josh Bell - Washington Nationals - 29 yrs old 2.5 fWAR 12 HR 164 OPS+ On a one-year deal with the Nationals, it always seemed like Bell may wind up as trade fodder at the deadline. He hasn’t produced the same home run numbers we’ve seen from him before, but this is a career year by every other measure. Bell’s hard hit rate dropping below 30% for the first time in his career is likely part of the lost power, but his 8.8% whiff rate is lower than anything he’s shown since 2016 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Traditionally somewhat of a lackluster defensive option, he’s produced positive numbers by both DRS and OAA this season. Bell should be one of the most coveted bats on the market this year, and at $10 million, for the season, his remaining money won’t be substantial. Willson Contreras - Chicago Cubs - 30 yrs old 22.9 fWAR 13 HR 152 OPS+ The Cubs have some very intriguing options all over the diamond, but there’s no denying the best talent is their catcher, Contreras. Offensively he’s pulverizing the baseball and experiencing a career year. The expected stats suggest this is substantiated, and if anything, may trend even further upwards. The 44.8% hard hit rate is a career high, and not at all a surprise with how well he’s seeing the ball at the plate. A knock is probably the defense, which has not previously been the case. After 8 DRS last season, Contreras is at -6 thus far in 2022. He’s not a good framer either, but is throwing out a league average amount of would be base stealers. Minnesota may benefit from a catching upgrade, but it’d be quite a luxury for them to go get the best bat available at the position. Cabrera is making $9.625 million this season in his final year of arbitration, and he’ll be a free agent following the season. If Minnesota targets a bat, who would you like them to grab and why?
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The players mentioned below are on non-contending teams, which are expected to be active at the deadline. As the August 2 trade deadline approaches, expect multiple trade targets tied to the Twins. Luis Castillo, RHP, Reds Twins fans have been calling for the Twins to trade for Luis Castillo since last winter, but he will be one of the most sought-after arms heading into the deadline. Minnesota completed the Sonny Gray trade with Cinncinatti, so the two front offices are familiar with one another. Sometimes that helps to make more significant trades come to fruition. Unlike the last trade that was a one-for-one deal, a Castillo trade will likely take multiple prospects, especially since he has one last arbitration-eligible season in 2023. Recent Hot Streak: Castillo began the year on the IL, which may have hurt his potential trade value. However, he has rounded back into form over his last five starts. In 29 1/3 innings, he has allowed eight earned runs (2.45 ERA) and averaged nearly six innings per outing. Opponents have hit .214/.279/.304 (.582) while striking out in 26.8% of their at-bats. Castillo would bolster nearly any team's playoff rotation. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs Minnesota has two capable big-league catchers on the roster, but a catching upgrade might help improve the entire line-up. Ryan Jeffers has struggled this season, and Willson Contreras would be a significant upgrade behind the plate. The Cubs traded away many of their core players last year, and Contreras is one of the last remaining pieces from their 2016 World Series run. FanGraphs has him ranked as the catcher with the highest WAR total in 2022. He is a free agent at the season's end, so plenty of teams will be in the market for the two-time All-Star. Recent Hot Streak: Contreras posted a .781 OPS through the season's first month, which isn't terrible. However, his bat started to heat up when the calendar turned to May. Over his last 33 games, he is hitting .279/.420/.550 (.970), including four doubles and eight home runs. At this point, he may be baseball's best offensive catcher. Trey Mancini, 1B, Orioles First base is an interesting position for the Twins. Luis Arraez has been getting most of the starts at the position, but the team can also add Alex Kirilloff and Miguel Sano back to the roster in the coming weeks. Trey Mancini can play first base or either corner outfield spot, but the Twins have depth at those positions. MLB.com identified him as a potential fit for the Twins, but it is hard to envision him fitting into the current line-up unless injuries became a concern. His current contract includes a $10 million mutual option for 2023 with a $250,000 buyout, so he doesn't have to serve strictly as a rental player for a team acquiring him. Recent Hot Streak: Mancini posted a .590 OPS through the season's first month, but he has recently heated up. Over his last 38 games, he is hitting .326/.424/.482 (.907) with five doubles and five home runs. FanGraphs ranks Minnesota's first base production in the bottom six of the American League. Mancini fits the prototypical first baseman role if the front office wants to address this position. Which player(s) do you feel like would be the best fit for the Twins before the trade deadline? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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