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Looking at what we know thus far, the Twins have been connected to relievers like Brandon Kintzler, Steve Cishek, Fernando Rodney and Matt Belisle. Of that foursome, only Rodney has landed with the Twins. In 2018, he’ll be 41 years old, and the lone leftover (Belisle) will be 38. Other names they’ve been linked to include Tony Watson (32) and Addison Reed (28). Looking at the aforementioned names only Reed is under the age of 30. I think we can begin to glean something from this information. As the Twins attack free agency, the bullpen from 2017 remains a concern. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine know that relief help needs to be brought in for this club to take the next step. With regard to relievers though, you generally want to be creative or good. Going the route of “good” can be a mistake waiting to happen. Handing out big contracts to names like Wade Davis or Greg Holland could end up preventing money being spent elsewhere, and is a situation that could blow up with a small case of the yips. When it comes to relief pitching, finding outliers seems to be, in general, a much more fruitful endeavor. As Twins Daily’s Tom Froemming pointed out, Brandon Morrow and Tommy Hunter bother signed one year deals last offseason for less than $1.5m each. During the current offseason, both agreed to multi-year deals for multiple millions of dollars. Seth Stohs also pointed out the desire to sign the likes of Tony Sipp or Antonio Bastardo to multi-year deals for big money back in 2015. All across baseball, you can pick out relief contracts that resemble a pitcher being paid too much for too long. Then, you have to take a look at what the Twins may be looking at from within. As things stand currently, Minnesota has more than a few promising arms on the horizon. Tyler Jay remains the top relief arm and should have a shot to get to the big leagues quickly. Felix Jorge could find himself factoring into the bullpen mix, and there are more than a few holdovers including John Curtiss, Alan Busenitz, J.T. Chargois, and even Jake Reed. Each of those guys has a relative amount of upside, and presents an ability to strike out big league hitters. In signing Rodney, the Twins only continue to play into this perception. A one-year deal worth up to $6 million guarantees few things, but tells us plenty. Entering the 2018 season, the expectation should be that he’ll be the club’s closer. He posted a 10.6 K/9 and picked up 39 saves a year ago for the Diamondbacks. As a veteran presence, that should be welcomed out of the gate for Minnesota. As the season draws on though, nothing about his age or his contract cements him into that role over any of the previously noted youth. What the Twins seem to be suggesting is that there’s a level of awareness regarding the deficiencies currently present on the big league roster. Relief help is obviously something Paul Molitor could use, but Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are also sending the message that they believe in what they have. Rodney, even with a good season, probably won’t be back in 2019 and another similar deal could be granted to the likes of Watson or Belisle. As the season wears on, the front office would love nothing more than to watch Jay or Chargois develop into the next man up. Curtiss, Busenitz and Reed all have the profiles of effective setup men, and seeing them blossom into that would be a welcomed reality. By addressing current issues while also allowing future solutions to present themselves, the Twins have the best of both worlds. Entering the 2018 season, the Minnesota Twins will try to take advantage of a potentially unique opportunity. With only the Cleveland Indians being competitive in the AL Central, they should find themselves no worse than the second best team in their division. With the rise of youth, they could soon overtake Cleveland at the top of the ladder. Rather than throwing all the chips in the basket right now, it appears the plan is to build consistently, using 2017 as a building block for the upcoming year and beyond. Ideally, the Twins should sign another reliever to a contract similar to what Rodney just agreed to. Then, getting an impact starting pitcher could set them up nicely to make some noise. While not going all in on 2018, they’d have taken steps forward without sacrificing the long term viability of an extended run of competitiveness. To summarize, short term/high upside solutions in the pen, and a long term/high ceiling starter would make for one successful offseason.
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As the Winter Meetings came to an end, the Minnesota Twins found themselves mentioned often and making just a few waves. In signing Michael Pineda to a two-year contract, while handing out a one-year deal to Fernando Rodney, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may be asking us to read through the tea leaves.Looking at what we know thus far, the Twins have been connected to relievers like Brandon Kintzler, Steve Cishek, Fernando Rodney and Matt Belisle. Of that foursome, only Rodney has landed with the Twins. In 2018, he’ll be 41 years old, and the lone leftover (Belisle) will be 38. Other names they’ve been linked to include Tony Watson (32) and Addison Reed (28). Looking at the aforementioned names only Reed is under the age of 30. I think we can begin to glean something from this information. As the Twins attack free agency, the bullpen from 2017 remains a concern. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine know that relief help needs to be brought in for this club to take the next step. With regard to relievers though, you generally want to be creative or good. Going the route of “good” can be a mistake waiting to happen. Handing out big contracts to names like Wade Davis or Greg Holland could end up preventing money being spent elsewhere, and is a situation that could blow up with a small case of the yips. When it comes to relief pitching, finding outliers seems to be, in general, a much more fruitful endeavor. As Twins Daily’s Tom Froemming pointed out, Brandon Morrow and Tommy Hunter bother signed one year deals last offseason for less than $1.5m each. During the current offseason, both agreed to multi-year deals for multiple millions of dollars. Seth Stohs also pointed out the desire to sign the likes of Tony Sipp or Antonio Bastardo to multi-year deals for big money back in 2015. All across baseball, you can pick out relief contracts that resemble a pitcher being paid too much for too long. Then, you have to take a look at what the Twins may be looking at from within. As things stand currently, Minnesota has more than a few promising arms on the horizon. Tyler Jay remains the top relief arm and should have a shot to get to the big leagues quickly. Felix Jorge could find himself factoring into the bullpen mix, and there are more than a few holdovers including John Curtiss, Alan Busenitz, J.T. Chargois, and even Jake Reed. Each of those guys has a relative amount of upside, and presents an ability to strike out big league hitters. In signing Rodney, the Twins only continue to play into this perception. A one-year deal worth up to $6 million guarantees few things, but tells us plenty. Entering the 2018 season, the expectation should be that he’ll be the club’s closer. He posted a 10.6 K/9 and picked up 39 saves a year ago for the Diamondbacks. As a veteran presence, that should be welcomed out of the gate for Minnesota. As the season draws on though, nothing about his age or his contract cements him into that role over any of the previously noted youth. What the Twins seem to be suggesting is that there’s a level of awareness regarding the deficiencies currently present on the big league roster. Relief help is obviously something Paul Molitor could use, but Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are also sending the message that they believe in what they have. Rodney, even with a good season, probably won’t be back in 2019 and another similar deal could be granted to the likes of Watson or Belisle. As the season wears on, the front office would love nothing more than to watch Jay or Chargois develop into the next man up. Curtiss, Busenitz and Reed all have the profiles of effective setup men, and seeing them blossom into that would be a welcomed reality. By addressing current issues while also allowing future solutions to present themselves, the Twins have the best of both worlds. Entering the 2018 season, the Minnesota Twins will try to take advantage of a potentially unique opportunity. With only the Cleveland Indians being competitive in the AL Central, they should find themselves no worse than the second best team in their division. With the rise of youth, they could soon overtake Cleveland at the top of the ladder. Rather than throwing all the chips in the basket right now, it appears the plan is to build consistently, using 2017 as a building block for the upcoming year and beyond. Ideally, the Twins should sign another reliever to a contract similar to what Rodney just agreed to. Then, getting an impact starting pitcher could set them up nicely to make some noise. While not going all in on 2018, they’d have taken steps forward without sacrificing the long term viability of an extended run of competitiveness. To summarize, short term/high upside solutions in the pen, and a long term/high ceiling starter would make for one successful offseason. Click here to view the article
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Ideally, the Twins must address their bullpen this offseason. The reality is that relief pitchers either need to be incredibly good with their breaking pitches, or they need the ability to shove into the upper 90’s and blow the ball by hitters. Save for Ryan Pressly, Minnesota doesn’t have much in the form of flamethrowers. There are some options on the way, but bringing in a bullpen arm or two hardly sounds like a bad idea. So, if the Twins are starting with a guy who could make a splash, Bryan Shaw may be a good place to turn. Forget that he’s a former Cleveland Indian, and has a level of rapport with Derek Falvey. The reality is that he’s a very good pitcher, and one who could potentially close out games for the Twins. For the second straight year, Shaw saw an increase in his velocity, averaging around 95mph on his fastball. His 3.52 ERA wasn’t a career best this year, but the 2.96 FIP was. He’s been consistently around 8.0 K/0 or better, and has thrown at least 60 innings in every season since 2012. At 30 years old, there’s probably plenty of life left in his arm, and a multi-year deal would hardly be over-extending. Option number two comes in the former of sometimes closer Addison Reed. 29 during the 2018 season, Reed owns a 3.40 career ERA. Outside of a relatively abysmal time in Arizona, he’s actually been really good over the course of his seven-year big league career. A 9.5 K/9 would be more than welcome in the Twins pen, even with a velocity that sits a bit lower (around 92mph). Reed has plenty of experience under his belt, and worked as a solid late inning option for the Red Sox down the stretch in 2017. He has accumulated 125 career saves, and would give Minnesota another good option in relief regardless of whether he’s closing out games. Reed has posted 70 innings pitched in back to back seasons, while never throwing less than 55 in a year. Health and ability are there, and Reed seems another decent candidate for a multi-year option. Looking at a lefty addition, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could look to a guy that just fell short in the World Series. Former Pirates closer Tony Watson was dealt to the Dodgers midway through 2017, and he’s been among the most consistent relievers in baseball for years. At 33 in 2018, he’ll have a bit of age creeping in against him, but the 2.75 ERA over the past three seasons is hardly a negative. Watson isn’t a big strikeout guy, at just 7.4 K/9. He does control counts however, with just a 2.5 BB/9 over the course of his career. Home runs have plagued him a bit more recently, and his FIP numbers don’t exactly jump off the page. At the right dollar amount though, he’s a substantial upgrade over some of the Twins current southpaw options, and he also has solid late inning experience. Rounding out the four-bagger of options is the first former starter of the group. Mike Minor dealt with injuries that sidelined him during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. After solely pitching in the National League, he resurfaced with the Royals for 2017. Making 65 appearances over 77.2 IP, he was a revelation. The 2.55 ERA was backed by a glowing 2.62 FIP and his 10.2 K/9 would be welcomed anywhere. Throwing around 91mph as a starter, Minor ramped things up to a 95mph average on his fastball this season in relief. Not only was he a horse out of the pen, but he was really, really good when called upon. The key with Minor is sustainability, and whether or not this was a one-year outlier. If there’s belief in the stuff going forward however, he’ll be just 30 next year, and could be the next out-of-nowhere stud in the pen. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to need to determine what internal options they believe in, either currently penciled in or coming through the system. It’s hardly a bad proposition though to bring in some strong options from outside to elevate the group as a whole. The Twins can’t be mediocre in starting roles and relief if they want to take the next step forward, and I’d imagine everyone involved is aware of that.
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