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It’s a bit unfortunate that 2020 has dealt the world the hand it has. On the sports front, and baseball in particular, the year has looked nothing like a traditional schedule. With Minnesota putting together arguably the most talented roster in franchise history, it’s unfortunate we didn’t get to see it perform over a full 162-game slate. What still matters however, is that all that talent is at the disposal of Rocco Baldelli when the games become win-or-go-home. The most likely opponents for the Twins in the Wild Card round of the Postseason look to be the New York Yankees, Houston Astros, or Cleveland Indians. We know the field at this point, and there’s no reason Minnesota can’t be excited about facing any of these teams. In reverse order though, here’s how I’ll argue the stack up, from easiest to toughest. 7. Toronto Blue Jays (Batting 18th Pitching 18th Fielding 18th) Somewhat of a surprise team, the Blue Jays have competed in what has been an up and down AL East this season. New York looked like a minor league team depending on which lineup you caught them with, and the Red Sox took ownership of the Orioles doldrums positioning. Toronto doesn’t do anything all that well, but they don’t have any glaring problem areas either. Bo Bichette is a stud, and right now Teoscar Hernandez has assumed the production intended for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hyun-Jin Ryu has looked the part of the ace he was hoped to be, but they haven’t got much help on the pitching front elsewhere. Ken Giles isn’t coming back either, and the bullpen is plenty beatable. 6. Houston Astros (Batting 22nd Pitching 11th Fielding 28th) What a difference a year makes. Houston was probably always going to be seen as tough despite the fallout from their cheating scandal due to the number of weapons that can hurt you. Their problem is that many of them have been a shell of themselves, and the pitching isn’t there either. Gerrit Cole is gone and Justin Verlander is done. George Springer and Michael Brantley have hit, but Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have been awful. You can’t let this team beat you, they have the talent to do so, but it isn’t the scary Astros anymore. 5. Oakland Athletics (Batting 10th Pitching 8th Fielding 3rd) Taking the Athletics down a notch was the massive loss of Matt Chapman. He’s a superstar and arguably the best defender in baseball at third base. There’s still thump in their lineup with Matt Olson and Marcus Semien, but one through nine isn’t where they’ll beat you. This team can pitch in the rotation and the bullpen, while converting outs at a high clip defensively. Oakland isn’t a team to take lightly but the +53-run differential and overall win tally seems to be aided by a very mediocre AL West. 4. Cleveland Indians (Batting 16th Pitching 1st Fielding 2nd) By now Twins fans have seen enough of the Indians to know what expectations are. The club can once again pitch, shocker, but they still can’t hit. Jose Ramirez has looked like an AL MVP candidate, but the middle of the order still features a black hole in Carlos Santana. The outfield production is atrocious, and they’ll rely on beating teams in low-scoring affairs. This isn’t a group you want to see in October. Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, and company can shut down any lineup. That said, there’s warts here and Minnesota has already handled them to the tune of a 7-3 record in 2020. 3. Chicago White Sox (Batting 1st Pitching 9th Fielding 9th) The rivalry has certainly been renewed, and it doesn’t matter who wins the division, the Southsiders will be coming for Minnesota plenty in the years ahead. The Twins split the season series with Chicago, and while a couple of those contests were lopsided, Rick Renteria’s club has the bats to do plenty of damage on their own. I think this unit is still a year away from settling into their own, but a series going up and down that lineup on a nightly basis would be as tense as it gets. Lucas Giolito is not an arm that has owned the Twins, and the rotation is barren behind him and Keuchel. Still though, it’s the bats that make this club worthy of a no-fly zone. 2. New York Yankees (Batting 7th Pitching 14th Fielding 13th) Going on season numbers for the Yankees are relatively hollow considering the amount of time they were without key players. Now a healthy Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have returned, and all bets are off. Gerrit Cole is an ace in every sense of the word, and Masahiro Tanaka is plenty consistent in his own right. I actually don’t think New York’s rotation is that much better than Minnesota’s but turning to Cole twice in a short series could be the trump card. There are questions as to whether Judge and Stanton have enough at bats to feel comfortable, but both are capable of going off at any time. Throw in Luke Voit and D.J. LeMahieu and you’ve once again got an opponent to avoid. 1. Tampa Bay Rays (Batting 11th Pitching 10th Fielding 8th) Maybe I’m overrating the Rays a bit given the opportunities they had against a more lackluster Yankees lineup, but this feels like the most complete team in the American League. Kevin Cash has this club clicking on all cylinders, and most of the names are guys a national landscape would gloss over. Brandon Lowe is a superstar, while Willy Adames has finally started living up to his potential. Tyler Glasnow is a problem on the mound and Nick Anderson may be the best reliever in baseball. Up and down this roster is a group of guys that constantly embody next man up, and anyone is capable of producing on a nightly basis. It’d be a fun narrative series for the Twins, but not one I’d want to willingly sign up for. *Overall ranks based on Fangraphs fWAR totals MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

What They Do Well Like Minnesota the Rays can pitch. The 12.1 fWAR is 1st in baseball and is largely bolstered by Charlie Morton. Blake Snell has taken his lumps at times this season, and he’s coming off his worst outing of 2019 (0.1 IP 2 H 6 ER 4 BB 0 K vs NYY). After losing Tyler Glasnow to injury much of the Rays rotation has been in flux. They employ the opener often and getting to Jose Alvarado or Emilio Pagan on the back end has been key. Despite not having the same offensive chops as the Twins, Tampa’s lineup is no slouch either. Their 12.9 fWAR is eighth in baseball and fifth in the American League. Owning just the 19th best ISO in baseball (.171) the approach is more of a team effort to score runs rather than living on the long ball or extra-base hit. What They Do Not Do Well Looking at a team this solid we’re nitpicking a little when attempting to find significant flaws. The lineup construction here is not one built to come from behind, however. Being in the bottom-third of baseball when hitting the long ball doesn’t provide many quick avenues to get back in a game. They also hover around the midpoint in regards to doubles, so it’s no surprise that their total runs scored check in at just 18th in the sport. Individuals of Note While Blake Snell gets the headlines as the reigning AL Cy Young, there’re two guys vastly more important for the Twins to key in on over the next few games. Wednesday starter Charlie Morton has been arguably the best free agent acquisition in baseball and leads the league in ERA. Houston turned him into a strikeout monster and his 1.025 WHIP suggests opportunities won’t come often against him. Morton has allowed more than two ER in just three of his 16 starts, and he’s held opposing lineups scoreless five times this season. On the offensive side of things, it’s former top prospect Austin Meadows. Acquired in the exchange for Chris Archer, Meadows has a .930 OPS. He has cooled just a bit since returning from the injured list in early May, but the .850 OPS still makes him a dangerous hitter. His 146 OPS+ is one point higher than that of Minnesota’s Jorge Polanco. Recent History As noted above, Minnesota and Tampa Bay squared off the last two days of May and first two of June. After a 14-3 drubbing in game one, Minnesota came back to take three in a row from Tampa. Minnesota is dealing with some missing pieces right now, but the hope would be that a return of one or two could have the Twins adding favorably to their 24-13 home record. Ending Thoughts Tampa is again a good squad and facing their two best hurlers isn’t going to provide any breaks for the Twins. Kyle Gibson is coming off an ugly outing against the Red Sox and will need to set the tone against Snell. Odorizzi faces his former organization and looked a bit lackluster his most recent time out. Minnesota’s lineup has slowed of late but getting right following the off day and against a good team at home, would be a great thing to see.

Devin Smeltzer got the call for his big-league debut against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday night at Target Field. His promotion was in part because Michael Pineda needed an IL stint, but also because the front office decided to juggle the rotation a bit. Without changing up the order, each starter was bumped a day allowing Minnesota’s top four arms to square off with one of the best teams in the American League. The Rays currently sit at 33-19 and have largely been led by unexpected performances, and pitching that has been top notch. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell has been great again, and even in losing Tyler Glasnow after an amazing start, they’ve gotten strong contributions from Charlie Morton, Ryne Stank, and Yonny Chirinos. The complete pitching staff boasts baseball’s best fWAR at 9.3. The Yankees come in second at 8.6 and Minnesota lands in the top four at 8.1. Tampa’s 2.93 ERA is the lowest in baseball and they strand runners at a big league-leading 79.1% rate. No matter what avenue you explore, this Rays pitching staff is getting the job done. Maybe most integral against the powerful Twins is that 11.3% HR/FB rate, the second lowest total in baseball. Tampa hurlers are the only team in the majors allowing less than one HR/9 (0.88) and they’ll need to flex that metric against Minnesota’s bats. Zeroing in solely on the bullpen, Tampa owns the third lowest ERA, second lowest HR/9, and a HR/FB rate only trumped by the Athletics. To put it simply, getting past the starter isn’t the only challenge here, and sending the ball over the fence is beyond a tough ask. Then there’s the likely place balls will land when the Twins hot bats come into St. Petersburg, the outfield. Tampa’s outfield is second in baseball with 19 DRS, one spot ahead of the Twins and their 17 DRS. Kevin Kiermaier is maybe the only player in the sport that can hold a candle to Byron Buxton, and he’s been flanked most often by Avisail Garcia and Tommy Pham, who have both put up strong metrics of their own. So, what does this all mean? Well, the Twins are going to need production from their guys on the mound, and they’ll need top notch defensive efforts facing the fifth most potent offense (in terms of fWAR) across baseball. On top of that though, they’ve blasted their way through the competition and that’s where the Rays keep opponents at bay. Baldelli’s crew hasn’t been free swinging, and they aren’t up there with many empty at-bats, but will the big blasts come and how often will we see them? You can’t deny that the Twins are in the driver’s seat for the AL Central Division title. They aren’t going to look ahead to the postseason at this point, and the results of this Tampa series likely will have no bearing on October baseball. For an early season test of the working blueprint though, this is the narrative to keep an eye on.

Year In Review Year after year, as free agent after free agent left the Rays, we would see stories about how the Rays successful run was over and a betting line that matched it. And year after year, that meant easy money for anyone betting the "over." Finally, last year, that was not such an easy call when a value of 88.5 was established, a higher number than even the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox had to beat. Sure enough, it all went to hell. Their pitching mostly held up, finishing with a 3.56 ERA. But the Rays finally ran out of patches for their lineup, scoring 88 runs fewer than the year before and sinking to last in the American League in runs scored. By midseason, they had traded away their ace, David Price. They finished with just 77 wins, their lowest total since 2007, when Rays were still preceded by "Devil." And then things got worse. The changes this offseason were probably more symbolic than impactful; they may not cost the Rays many wins this year, but the message is clear: their window of opportunity slammed shut. Both their GM, Andrew Friedman, and their manager, Joe Maddon, bailed on them for more promising (and - surprise - cash-rich) teams. (The lesson? It turns out that in the long run in MLB being richer is better than being smarter. And if you doubt it, just watch where the smart guys end up going.) There are also plenty of changes on the field. They turned over their starting shortstop, second baseman, catcher and two outfielders and replaced them with...well, mostly with patches and prospects for the next rebuild, which they hope to start sooner rather than later. Vegas Says "I won't make that mistake again. They're done. But they still have a pretty good pitching staff." - 78.5 wins. Beating Vegas On the one hand, this franchise has been underestimated for most of the last eight years by the betting public, so I can't blame anyone for betting the over. But two things lead me to the "under", one spiritual and one practical. Spiritually, it's hard to rally when hope has left the building. Sure, an organization can embrace a "last stand" mentality, but that usually requires a cause a little more noble than a third-place finish. If the Rays don't thrive immediately, there is going to be enormous pressure to continue to look at the future. The team already consists of more than their share of "stop gap" players, and that's the sort that are easily traded away for some future chits. And sooner or later, they're going to get around to wondering just what kind of return Evan Longoria and his technicolor contract can fetch. And practically, this looks like the worst team in the AL East. Personally, I don't think they're going to be all alone in that regard; one of the other four will likely unexpectedly flame out. But the worst team in a division can have quite a bit of room to sink below their Vegas total. So I'm not sure I would bet on it, but put me down for the "under".