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The Minnesota Twins needed to acquire starting pitching this offseason and largely overlooked the free agent market. In making a deal with the Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota landed a guy in Sonny Gray that they hoped would be an ace. So far it’s looked like a perfect fit. How do they keep him moving forward? Pitching this season at 32, Sonny Gray is putting up among the best seasons of his 10-year big league career. Gray is in the final year of a four-year deal but carries a team option for 2023 at $12 million. Given his abilities and relative health, that should be a no-brainer to exercise for Minnesota. Gray has spent a couple of stints on the injured list this season, but he’s still made nine starts to the tune of a 2.53 ERA with a 9.7 K/9. Gray has never had a lower walk rate during his career, and this is as infrequent as he’s ever been allowing the longball. Having pitched recently in parks like Cincinnati and New York, finding a better fit in Minnesota has to have felt wonderful. On the process side of things, it appears Gray is learning to use somewhat of a different repertoire with the Twins. His fastball velocity is down to 92.1 mph, a career low, but he’s upped his slider usage and paired both with a solid curveball. Gray is experiencing a career best chase rate and he’s largely worked around damage. Nine games is far too small of a sample size to suggest Gray is going to continue this output for the rest of the season, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction for a longer term marriage with the Twins if he wants to explore that. Looking at 34 following the team option, Gray’s likelihood for a long-term deal on the open market decreases substantially. Should he choose to lock something up now, a four year deal with Minnesota, tacking on an additional three, would potentially take him through the end of his career. Right now Gray is slated to make $12 million from Minnesota in 2023 if they so choose. Over the course of his current deal Gray has averaged $9.5 million annually. A season ago this Twins front office paid a 38-year-old J.A. Happ $8 million to top out their free agent pitching, and this season Dylan Bundy was given $5 million coming off a 6.06 ERA in 2021. I don’t know if the Twins need to go to $12 million annually on an extension, but that hardly seems egregious either. A 29-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez was paid $15.4 million over five years by the Detroit Tigers this offseason, and a 30-year-old Jon Gray got $14 million over four years from the Texas Rangers. Gray is arguably the better pitcher among that group, but he’s also roughly three years their senior. Both Steven Matz and Yusei Kikuchi got multi-year deals at $11 and $12 million annually respectively, but they too are roughly two years younger than that of Gray. Tyler Anderson is 32 years old and got $8 million from the Dodgers, but only on a one-year pact. There are plenty of guys in that age range that saw similar paydays with no guarantee of longevity. I think for Minnesota, and Gray, the duration may be a worthwhile tradeoff. For Minnesota, I think landing somewhere between Kikuchi and Matz over four years (starting in 2023) would be a worthwhile premise. That’d put Gray at between $11-12 million annually and $44-48 million over the course of his contract. Paying him that sum through age 36 seems to avoid much of the risk as he surpasses that age as well. As a guy who’s not velocity reliant and is very meticulous about his training regimen, there should be an ample amount of belief that he ages gracefully. Maybe the Twins ultimately don’t want to commit to Gray for the long term and they’re happy with him just being around in 2023. If not, these parameters seem like a good place to start. What do you think, are you paying $44-48 million for four more years of Sonny Gray? View full article

Breaking news... The Twins aren't going to win the World Series in 2017. It's going to take time to turn this organization around. Derek Falvey might have packed up some of Cleveland's magical roster dust but even Theo Epstein didn't turn the Cubs around in a year. Each off-season starts with a plan. Here's my blueprint to get the organization moving in the right direction.Arbitration Decisions Trevor Plouffe might be the toughest decision in the group but it makes sense to keep him around. Sano hasn't proven he can be an everyday third baseman. Plouffe provides some Sano insurance and he can be used at other places in the line-up. His name has been part of the hot stove discussion over the last couple of years. It wouldn't be a surprise if Plouffe ended up on another team by the middle of the season. The Twins Daily blueprint included non-tendering Hector Santiago and Brandon Kintzler. I think it makes sense to keep both of them. Minnesota's roster doesn't have an overload of pitching. It would be easy to get rid of both of them and some of it will depend on the other members being traded away in the coming months. Here's the arbitration player rundown: -3B Trevor Plouffe – $9 million -SP Hector Santiago – $9 million -IF Eduardo Escobar – $3.5 million -SP Kyle Gibson – $2.5 million -RP Brandon Kintzler – $2.5 million -RP Ryan Pressly – $1.5 million Total: $28 million Dealing Dozier Brian Dozier's value is never going to be higher. He is the leader of the team on and off the field but the Twins need pitching. Also, Dozier's not likely going to be part of the next winning team in Minnesota so it makes sense to trade him. The Twins Daily offseason handbook names the Mets as a potential trade partner because of their surplus of young pitching. This is where I deal Dozier. If the Mets come calling with the right package, the Twins will have to listen. Left-handed pitcher Steven Matz has posted a 3.16 ERA through 28 career starts and he's the main piece of the puzzle. There would likely be other prospect pieces involved but Matz is the center of a Dozier swap. Free Agent Frenzy... Well, Not Really This might be one of the worst free agent classes of all-time. There's not a lot of talent and the second-tier of players is quite a drop-off. Teams are going to spend money but it doesn't mean it is going to be wisely spent. With the Twins deciding to part ways with Kurt Suzuki, there's a need to add a new backstop. Former Twins catcher Wilson Ramos will likely get the biggest free agent deal. The Twins Daily plan and Brandon Warne's plan included signing Jason Castro. He's a cheaper option and could help bridge the gap to some younger catchers in the Twins farm system. There are no great options and Falvey will have to decide how close Mitch Garver is to being an everyday catcher. With little depth in the catching market, I think Castro finds a bigger deal with a team that is closer to winning. Minnesota will be left with some of the scraps. I give Alex Avila a one-year deal to platoon with John Ryan Murphy. I think Garver should be getting regular at-bats by mid-season. The bullpen also needs an upgrade. Names like Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen are going to sign huge contracts. I offer Scott Feldman a two-year deal with some incentives as he has shown some positive signs since joining the bullpen. Who knows? Maybe he turns into a valuable asset that the Twins can trade in the future. With Dozier gone, I look to add a veteran infield option to help pick up some of the slack. Stephen Drew has played both shortstop and second base and he showed a little upside in 2016. He'd be cheap and would be easily expendable if other in-house options show they are MLB ready. Here's the rundown of my 25-man roster. Feel free discuss my plan in the comments section. Click here to view the article