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It was a pretty quiet day, but here are some of the Day 1 Discussions: Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu Shock and Awe were felt by most around baseball when new broke that Stephen Strasburg had an agreement to return to the Washington Nationals for seven years and $245 million. That was believed to be what the Yankees were going to offer Gerrit Cole. Now, we can only imagine what Cole (and Scott Boras) will command for his services . But does the Strasburg contract affect what Bumgarner and Ryu will get? In my opinion, it shouldn't, though their agents certainly will try to tie it together. In reality, Bumgarner and Ryu are still more closely connected with Zack Wheeler's five-year, $118 million contract. Bumgarner's side let it be known that they are now expecting five years and at least $100 million. That's understandable. The Phillies paid for what they hope Wheeler might become, but certainly hasn't been to this point. Bumgarner has every right to point out that he has actually been an ace in the past, and while that was a few years ago, he's earned a contract similar in length and dollars. The Twins are one of about eight to ten teams to express interest in Bumgarner. The White Sox and Reds and Cardinals are among interested teams, and Bumgarner will meet with the Giants this week too. It would seem that the Twins are interested in both, but maybe even slightly more interested in Ryu over Bumgarner, potentially because he might command fewer years due to his age. https://twitter.com/twinsdaily/status/1204175043221168128 But, What About... While the teams appear to be focusing on Bumgarner and Ryu, Dallas Keuchel is again a free agent. He's about a year younger than Ryu. Would the Twins consider jumping to Dallas Keuchel in an attempt to add a veteran starter of nearly the same ilk? Would Keuchel consider a one-year, $18 million deal (like Hamels did), or could he be available for two-years at $36 million, or even three years and $51 million? After his free agent experience a year ago, could he be interested in signing quickly this offseason? As a side advantage to this, Keuchel would not cost the Twins a draft pick. Just a thought... https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1204401633930559488 The Twins could leave one rotation spot for one of their young starters, or they could fill in while Michael Pineda finishes his suspension. https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1204212197217275905 First Base Internal Options When Derek Falvey met with Twin Cities reporters, he said that Brent Rooker and Luke Raley could be first base options in spring training. And Alex Kirilloff is just a step behind them. https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1204207744279924736 Isn't He Handsome? The recently-engaged Rocco Baldelli ranked #1 in the Most Handsome Manager list, via Craig Calcaterra. So he's got that going for him. A Romo Return? https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1204136529980866560 There are several teams interested in Sergio Romo. He really helped stabilize the Twins bullpen after he was acquired from the Marlins at the July deadline. His slider generally proved really good. He won't cost much, so I don't think that it would be spendy to add him. The only concern is the 87 mph fastball and the home run ball. He's been successful, but he can be nerve-wracking. Seems Romo is the only reliever that the Twins have been linked to in any way. One would think they might have interest in at adding at least one more veteran type. Then again, there have not been a lot of free agent reliever rumors to this point either. We haven't heard rumors regarding the likes of Will Harris or Daniel Hudson or Dellin Betances. The Return of Wilfredo According to reports, the Twins have signed infielder Wilfredo Tovar. He played nine games for the Mets in 2013-14 and returned to the big leagues for 31 games with the Angels in 2019. The 28-year-old played in 125 games for the Rochester Red Wings in 2016. So there are some topics to get the Day 2 conversation started. Will there be more Twins rumors? Will there be any signings by the Twins? Will Tuesday be the day Gerrit Cole picks a team?

There should be no expense spared by the Minnesota front office this winter. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have suggested they’ll target impact pitching. Both Cole and Strasburg could be handed blank checks, and the end result may still be in them thumbing their nose at the prospect of playing in the Midwest. I’m very much a fan of what Zack Wheeler could be under the tutelage of Wes Johnson, but it’s the staff ace role that presents the most intrigue. Jose Berrios’ offseason workouts have become the thing of legend. From pulling trucks to flipping tires and doing rigorous beach circuits, there’s nothing that the Puerto Rican native won’t turn into an opportunity to break a sweat. This offseason though, the Twins have presented a new directive. As he left Twins Territory and headed home the plan was for a new training regimen to be instituted. While I have no idea what the specifics of that are, my guess would be that the intensity is likely decreased just a little bit. With the Twins pointed towards a division title as the 2019 season came to an end, Berrios went into August with a 2.80 ERA and capped off the year with a 3.68 mark. The final 10 starts included a 5.83 ERA and .835 OPS against. He surrendered 10 of his 26 homers and gave up an underwhelming 68 hits in 58.2 innings. Certainly, an ugly set of statistics, but it’s become relatively par for the (August) course for the 25-year-old. Now four years into his major league career Berrios owns a 5.96 August ERA and a 4.64 mark in September. Those months also include opposing slugging percentages of .811 and .741 respectively. Despite being from a much warmer climate, his career 3.69 ERA and .627 OPS against before May is light years more impressive. It doesn’t take much analysis to understand that the end of the season is when Berrios is at his absolute worst. From a conceptual standpoint I’d imagine that Minnesota’s plan for Jose this offseason is to find a routine that breeds sustainability. Rocco Baldelli doesn’t want to see his staff ace coming out of the gates flat, but he also needs to know that he’ll take the ball and be just as dominant down the stretch. Working on a routine that allows for endurance and an ability to avoid a breakdown will give pitching coach Wes Johnson a pitcher much more able to pave the way for the starting rotation. Avoiding velocity dips and ineffectiveness for significant periods, the pitcher Berrios was through July represented a talent worthy of Cy Young consideration. I don’t believe we’ve seen the best of Berrios yet, and that shouldn’t be groundbreaking given his youth. It’s on Minnesota to develop him toward taking the next step, and with Falvey’s track record in Cleveland, there should be belief they have the right man for the job. The Twins need to spend and acquire pitching this winter, but the sooner they can unlock their own ace, the better. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY The 2020 Offseason Handbook Is Now Available for Preorder! Dealing with Wheeler Gets Minnesota an Ace Twins Trade Targets: 4 Potential Starting Pitching Upgrades

Everyone knows what the top of the market will look like. Gerrit Cole is going to command a return that could make even Mike Trout and Bryce Harper blush. He’s been nothing short of exceptional, just turned 29-years-old, and may still have another gear to reach. There’s no guarantee that Stephen Strasburg becomes the second premiere arm, but logic suggests he’ll opt out of the final four years and $100 million of his current deal. Every team in baseball should be tripping over themselves to offer these guys a payday. If the Twins aren’t in on them it’s a problem, but if they get turned down anyway, they’ll need to pivot. For the sake of this argument let’s assume that Derek Falvey offers either of those pitchers a blank check and neither takes the bait. All is not lost with Zack Wheeler still being in the picture. He’s not the arm either of those pitches is, and he is older than Cole, but the former Mets hurler may be the most underappreciated talent looking for a new home. A former first-round pick, Wheeler has been a model of consistency when healthy. In his three full seasons he’s pitched at least 180 innings with strong strikeout numbers and an ERA firmly in the mid-3’s. For New York in 2019 his ERA crept up to a 3.96 mark, but the 3.48 FIP suggests he was likely victimized by one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. Over the course of his career Wheeler has avoided the long ball and kept baserunners to a minimum. He’s not going to challenge for the league lead in strikeouts but the 195 in 2019 was a new career high. With the Mets he was consistently a 10% whiff rate thrower, and he’s expanded his chase rates each of the past two seasons. With an average fastball of 97.1 mph this past season, Wes Johnson should be salivating at the opportunity to take him to the next level. You can bet that the Twins have done a decent amount of background work on Wheeler already. They were in talks with Brodie Van Wagenen regarding Noah Syndergaard, and there’s no doubt that Zack’s name likely was added into the mix. Now costing only dollars, he doesn’t come with the price tag of coveted pieces from within the system. The ability to add a starter with his repertoire and upward projectability is a rare scenario, and one that Minnesota can’t miss on. Paying for pitching on the open market is largely a landmine of failed opportunity. Teams either find themselves looking to overextend for the best option or having to settle for a patchwork piece that doesn’t fit the mold. Developing pitching is the greatest path to sustainable success and being able to acquire someone like Wheeler who provides a fair mix of pay and future potential looks like a slam dunk. Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg represent the outlier opportunity to add one of the 5-10 aces in baseball to your staff. Someone like Wheeler gives the Twins an avenue to have two aces of their staff and allow them to battle each other for that top spot.

To set up some initial parameters here, we need to understand the financial situation. The Twins are coming off a $120MM payroll after a $130MM payroll in 2018. A 2020 payroll should check in at no less than $135MM, and more realistically hover around $140MM. From a commitment standpoint there’s only a first base and backup catcher role open for position players, and then there’s something like one or two bullpen opportunities. As was the title of his article, John pointed out that Minnesota has around $70 million to hand out in the form of starting pitching contracts. So, how does that break down? Looking at what is available on the market, and a baseline understanding of what acquisition cost will be, there’s certainly not an abundance of players that will command more than $25 million annually. Although there is never a shortage of Martin Perez-types that can be had for less than $10 million, Minnesota must be aiming higher. With Jose Berrios as a given, and one spot tabbed for an internal candidate (think Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, or Lewis Thorpe), the rotation gets remade with projectable talent. To break down options I categorized the three opportunities into different salary buckets. This is what I’ve come up with. SP1 ($25 million and up AAV)- Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner I believe this group to be completely represented by the names above. Strasburg is not a lock to opt out of his current deal, but with just $100 million left over the next four years he should cash in for a final big payday. Cole is the premiere target on the market, and while even a blank check may be thwarted by a more enticing market, there’s no excuse for Minnesota not to make their best effort. Bumgarner was not an appealing trade option at the deadline given the estimated return for a rental. He’s still not the pitcher he once was, but he’s only 30-years-old and proved his durability again this season. Competition for three arms that every team needs will be substantial, but the Twins are as well positioned as anyone to make it happen. SP2 ($15-25 million AAV)- Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, Hyun-Jin Ryu The youngster of this group is the former Mets pitcher Wheeler. He’ll pitch next season at the age of 30 and was one of the most intriguing names at the deadline. He wasn’t moved but posted strong numbers across the board and looks to be knocking on the door of another level. If the Twins are convinced Wes Johnson can provide the breakthrough, they should be all in. Keuchel has given Atlanta about what was expected, but most importantly has calmed health concerns. He’s not a velocity guy but saw and uptick in strikeouts. The new ball has burned him more than ever, but this is the type of two or three starter that a really good rotation employs. Eldest of the bunch is Ryu, who was fully healthy for the first time since 2013. Getting below 1.0 HR/9 in the toughest season to do so implies he really has no flaws, but it also comes down to belief in him going forward despite a track record of unavailability due to injuries. SP3 ($10-20 million AAV)- Alex Wood, Julio Teheran, Jose Quintana Only Wood is truly a free agent among this trio. Both Teheran and Quintana have team options that the Braves and Cubs respectively could pick up. For Wood, 2019 was a throwaway season due to back issues, so he comes with caution tape unless the medicals all check out. Teheran is a bigger name than he is talent, but there’s workable ability in his repertoire. Quintana would be returning to a familiar division, and while the Cubs could move on, his 3.80 FIP suggests the 4.58 ERA wasn’t truly indicative of the stuff. The Twins have two parting options that would both fit in this group as well. Michael Pineda pitched himself into a decent payday even with his suspension, and because of the games missed, he’ll likely offer an immediate discount. Jake Odorizzi could be handed a QO which would put him at the top of this range, but he should have no problem finding a longer-term pact that falls somewhere in the middle. I don’t believe the Twins will sign an arm from all three of these buckets given the likelihood for a trade being swung. If they did only hand out paychecks though, a strong trio can be formed from the group above. To say Cole is immediately out because he’d have to chose Minnesota seems dismissive. He’s a long shot, but money talks. If Gerrit turns you down, I’m more into Strasburg than Bumgarner, but I’d make sure one of them is cashing a check from 1 Twins Way. Wheeler is the most exciting name from the second group, and I believe he’s got another level yet to unlock. I’d round out the options by making sure that Jake Odorizzi never gives up the lease on whatever rental property he calls home in Minneapolis. Who would be the three arms you’re targeting to accomplish an acquisition from each pool above?