Search the Community

For much of the past two seasons the Minnesota Twins have been tied to something they weren’t. In 2019, the club introduced the Bomba Squad and went on a terrorizing run of punishing opposing pitchers. Power production is what became synonymous with the roster, but expect something much different in 2023. This team will pitch. Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports It’s not exactly a bad thing that the Twins will be looking to usher in a new look given they are coming off back-to-back seasons missing the postseason. Last year, the club was decimated by injuries and the year prior, performance left plenty to be desired. Neither of those teams truly had an identity, and it’s something Rocco Baldelli would probably prefer they get back to. If you’re hoping that Joey Gallo’s signing means Minnesota will blast bombas once again, you’re likely to be disappointed. Sure, the Twins are hoping he can find his swing, but there is positional flexibility and defense to fall back on for the slugger. Carlos Correa returns at shortstop, and while he can manage the lumber, his game is an all around one as well. Nelson Cruz is going to moonlight as a baseball player for the San Diego Padres, and Miguel Sano is still unemployed. The Bomba Squad was a one-time thing, and looking at this roster, the Twins want their strength to be pitching. Luis Arraez was sent to the Miami Marlins for Pablo Lopez, not because the pitcher is an ace, but because he lengthens the starting rotation. Sonny Gray has looked the part of a top arm when healthy, and Tyler Mahle could be more than ready to break out if he’s healthy. Kenta Maeda has previously competed for a Cy Young award, and last year’s Opening Day starter in Joe Ryan may be slated to bring up the rear of the rotation. For the first time in quite a while, the Twins rotation is where much of the investment has been made. Yes, there isn’t a massive free agent contract in the group, but prospect capital such as Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were all utilized to acquire it. Moving on from Arraez wasn’t an easy choice, but the lineup has enough potential to withstand that sort of blow. You can bet that Baldelli is not hoping to win every game 2-1, but this shouldn’t be a Twins team that needs five runs in order to hold things down. Last season, the difference between scoring three or more runs was drastic, and the hope is that tweaks to the defense can help as well. The outfield may be able to lay claim as baseball’s best defensively, and that will only further help whoever is on the mound. Bringing back Correa at shortstop was a must, and while Jorge Polanco is not great in the field, Jose Miranda should be better at the hot corner with Alex Kirilloff possessing Gold Glove ability at first base. Fielding will continue to be an area the Twins look to improve in an effort to help the entire pitching staff. Down the stretch last season, the Twins bullpen made significant strides. Jhoan Duran got all of the praise, but Griffin Jax has emerged as a force, and Jorge Lopez returning to his All-Star form would be a massive high-leverage boost. Both in the starting rotation and the bullpen, Pete Maki is going to feel confident running arms to the mound. Derek Falvey became synonymous with pitching when working within the Cleveland Guardians organization. This may be the first time since he has been with Minnesota where he can feel confident in what the group on the mound has been built as. Not every team is going to have an ace, and although the Twins still don’t, they have as good of a group as anyone could hope for. There are different styles that will trot to the mound, but it would not be at all surprising to see that Twins have the best staff, top to bottom, in the division. Start thinking of nicknames if you must, but this group is going to rely on pitching and defense. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are already faced with some injury challenges early in spring training. After losing Gilberto Celestino to a thumb injury yesterday, Nick Gordon was forced to leave today’s game due to an ankle injury. Today was also Sonny Gray’s first outing of the spring. Highlights also include Kyle Farmer, Brent Headrick and more. View full video

FORT MYERS - It's noticeable. It's exciting. It's worrisome. What is going on with the velocity Twins pitchers are seeing? It's not uncommon to hear that a pitcher's velocity is up early in spring training - right up until we actually see in-game radar readings. But we are seeing those now, and the velocity is sticking around. What's going on, and it a positive sign for the future? John Bonnes reports from Twins spring training. export_1677674240147_landscape.mp4 View full article

With a rotation suddenly loaded with high-end veterans, who get the Opening Day honors? Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports Spring training has begun, and the season is right around the corner. The start of the season begs the age-old question, who is the Opening Day starting pitcher? The Twins have never spent significant money or pushed all their chips in to acquire a true "ace," which has left the spot of Opening Day starter as a revolving door of pitchers. The Twins have used three different pitchers in the last three years and eight different in the past ten years. This year, however, the Twins are in a different situation. While they still don't have a real #1 that so many desire, they have five starters that all could reasonably start on Opening Day. Who's the most likely to get the nod? The most significant deciding factor is, more than likely, health. This past season, Sonny Gray was presumed to be the Opening-Day starter after his March 13th acquisition, but he was behind pace in spring training, and the honor was given to rookie Joe Ryan. It's possible that a similar situation may take Tyler Mahle out of the running. Mahle was acquired at last year's deadline but threw just 16.1 innings with the Twins before his season ended due to shoulder injuries. As of now, Mahle's spring training is going normally, but it is something to monitor as we head toward Opening Day. His upside is arguably the highest in the rotation, but he's only had one above-average season in his career. His lack of consistent performance and last year's injury makes him the least likely of the four to start on Opening Day. While he isn't a definitive #1, Pablo Lopez substantially raises the rotation's floor. His talent is similar to Sonny Gray's, and he has shown that he can be a workhorse-type pitcher, throwing 180 innings this past season. Lopez is pitching in the WBC for Venezuela, so his performance and health may dictate his chances for Opening Day. He is also brand new to the Twins, and teams tend to pick veteran starters with more experience on the team, so it may limit his chance to start Opening Day. Kenta Maeda is clearly another candidate. He was the Opening Day starter two years ago in 2021, coming off a (shortened) season in which he finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting. But last year was a lost year for him as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. That doesn’t necessarily disqualify him, but there are more worthy candidates. That leaves the two front-runners: Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray. In 2022, Ryan became the first Twins rookie to start on Opening Day since 1969. Ryan was solid with a 2.2 WAR and a 109 ERA+. He also showed his durability by leading the team in innings pitched with 147. He has no history of substantial injuries and will be ready to go on Opening Day. His lack of a track record of successful pitching is the only thing holding him back. Sonny Gray proved his spot as the #1 last year with 2.4 WAR and a 125 ERA+. While he did land on the IL three times, he finished the season with no injuries. Gray is the veteran of the four at 33 years old and has already pitched an entire season for the Twins. Gray has been in the league for a decade and has shown his ability to perform consistently year after year. He also has a reputation in the clubhouse as a team leader. After looking at team history, previous injuries, and other factors, all signs point to Sonny Gray starting Opening Day. Gray has already pitched in live BP down in Fort Meyers and has no limitations in spring training. His previous time with the Twins and his veteran talent make him the strongest candidate to start on Opening Day. View full article

A year ago the Minnesota Twins gave the ball to Joe Ryan on Opening Day. Despite making a trade for a frontline starter with a more significant track record, it was the young rookie who got the call. What adjustments he makes for big games could be the narrative of his sophomore season. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Needing pitching help, and unlikely to get it from free agents Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer, the Twins swung a trade for Sonny Gray last offseason. Dealing former top prospect Chase Petty was a substantial cost, and while Gray came with a pretty impressive track record, it wasn’t enough to earn him the first start of the season. He was very active in negotiations of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, so he needed a few more days before he was ready to make his first start. When the Twins flipped an aging Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays, it was shocking to see them get something of significant value. Joe Ryan was a Top 100 prospect, and he came along with Drew Strotman. Ryan’s stuff doesn’t light up the radar gun, but everywhere he worked for Tampa since being a 7th round pick in the 2018 draft out of Cal State - Stanislaus showed strong results. Not surprisingly, Ryan continued to see encouraging outcomes in the big leagues. It was only a five-start cameo in September of 2021, but his 27 starts last year produced a solid 3.55 ERA. His 3.99 FIP suggested it wasn't just "smoke and mirrors," and even without an upper-90s fastball, he still produced a shiny 9.2 K/9. Little about Ryan’s season was disappointing as a whole, and as a 26-year-old rookie, there is plenty to build off of in 2023. He is unlikely to start on Opening Day, as Gray will have the benefit of a full spring training to be ready, and he could be as low as 5th in the rotation. Additions of Tyler Mahle, Pablo Lopez, and the return of Kenta Maeda all bring considerable depth, and that makes Ryan a valuable back-end starter. If he wants to take his game to another level, doing it against the best competition is the next step. It’s fair to note that the AL Central is one of baseball’s weakest divisions. Although the Guardians and White Sox provide a challenge, there have been no juggernauts for quite some time. Both Kansas City and Detroit happily take their lumps at the bottom of the group, and that allows for plenty of opportunity to shove with scheduled regularity. Talking to reporters down in Fort Myers, Ryan had some thoughts on facing tougher teams. He said, "I’m never really gonna be like … I mean, I expect to do well, so then the bad ones are highlighted more. I don’t really sit on my good stretches much, because that’s what I expect. So that’s kind of like that’s my baseline mentality, I don’t know if it’s a good thing or a bad thing. I think a good start is just how the day was supposed to go. So it feels just like a good day in the offseason. And a bad start feels like you got a couple tickets or something, and someone slashed your tires and stole your car." There isn’t any surprise behind the premise that a pitcher would struggle against better opponents, but the division last season for Ryan was stark. When facing teams above .500 in 2022, Ryan allowed a .760 OPS and 14 of his 20 home runs. In 14 games against those opponents his ERA was an inflated 4.81, and the win-loss record charged to him sat at 3-6. When facing teams under .500, Ryan recorded a 10.5 K/9 with a 2.31 ERA and a 10-2 record. Wins and losses aren’t indicative of much from a pitcher-record standpoint, but it is notable how much more dominant Ryan was against weaker competition in nearly the same amount of opportunities. The final results were reflective of much more effective work, and it was clear he found ways to avoid letting small things spiral. For Ryan and the Twins, making sure to address better competition is a must in 2023. Not only will Minnesota face their divisional opponents less over the course of the season, but they will play every team in baseball for at least one series as well. Knowing the Central houses weaker opponents, Ryan will face better hitters on a more consistent basis. It may not be about getting Ryan to replicate the same level of dominance against lackluster teams, but pushing his ERA toward 4.00 against the good teams would help. He has displayed an impressive knowledge and feel for the game, and working through ways to challenge and beat the best will only unlock more doors for him. Looking for more success, Ryan told reporters this week in Ft. Myers that he has changed things up a bit. Regarding talk of a new pitch, he said, "A little true, I’d say, like the slider we worked on in September that we were throwing at the end of the season, started to work to refine that this offseason. And then added a little split-change in there." Ryan also got in some work with Driveline this offseason. He considered it a good experience. "We worked on that (pitch shape) a lot. A couple of us went up there at the end of the offseason and put the whole package together, and it was just good to see what the possibilities were and just learn kind of... it helps me a lot to know the reason for things sometimes." The Twins haven’t had the starting pitching depth they do right now in years, and being able to see someone like Ryan round out the rotation is exciting. How far he can continue to substantiate performance remains to be seen. Finding a way to be better against better teams is the next step in his development. With how difficult the Twins schedule is immediately in April, we won’t need to wait long in order to find out if he’s up to the task. View full article

From Griffin Jax's slider to Jhoan Durán's curve to Joe Ryan's four-seamer, these were the pitches that did the most work for Twins pitchers last year. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Pitching in today's game is more advanced than ever. Fastballs are faster. Breaking pitches break more. All of that leads to pitching being more exciting than ever. The Twins are no stranger to this, as their staff has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, but who truly had the best pitch on the Twins in 2022? To measure, I am using Run Value (RV). Run Value looks at run expectancy in each unique situation and how a specific pitch affects that run expectancy. Run Value is through the eyes of the pitcher, so a negative number represents a good pitch because it lessens the chance of a run and vice versa. It is important to note that run value is an accumulative stat, meaning that the more innings someone pitched, the more RV they can acquire, and now on to the top ten. 10: Griffin Jax's slider: -7 RV 9: Sonny Gray's curveball: -7 RV 8: Jovani Moran's changeup: -7 RV 7: Caleb Thielbar's four-seamer: -8 RV 6: Jhoan Durán's curveball: -8 RV 5: Chris Archer's slider: -9 RV Archer was largely ineffective last year, with lousy walk numbers, and he didn't go far into games, leading to a WAR of precisely zero. The lone bright spot of his season was the slider, which snuck into the top five. Archer's slider rate ticked up this past season, and for a good reason: it was his only effective pitch. Opponents batted .202 against it, and he got a 26.5 whiff% with his slider. 4: Michael Fulmer's slider: -9 RV Acquired at the trade deadline, Fulmer's arsenal is slider heavy, throwing it over 60% of the time. He averages 90.3 MPH, which is top ten in the league. He was effective in his time in Minnesota with an ERA of 3.70 and an ERA+ of 106. His slider was a big part of that, as it held opponents to a .342 SLG and had a 24.7 put away%. 3: Jhoan Durán's four-seamer: -9 RV Arguably the most dominant pitch on this list, it doesn't rank higher in RV due to the lack of innings pitched. Duran had the highest velocity fastball in MLB last year with an average speed of 100.8 MPH, beating out other flamethrowers such as Edwin Diaz and Ryan Helsley. Topping out at 103.8 MPH and averaging more inches of movement than his curveball, Duran made opposing hitters look lost with a 25.9 K% on his fastball. 2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV Gray uses his fastball much less than the other top five on the list, at just 28.3%, but his results were just as effective. Nothing instantly jumps out; his velocity and strikeout numbers are average to below average. His opponent slugging however, was .345, 50 points below the league average. Gray's four-seamer has run similar to a two-seamer, and he was able to dominate the left side of the plate. 1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV Somewhat of a surprise due to his low velocity, but Ryan's fastball was elite. In terms of run value, that pitch ranked ninth in MLB and the fourth-best fastball, only behind Justin Verlander, Nestor Cortes, and Carlos Rodon. Thrown a whopping 60.1% of the time, it held opponents to a mere .174 batting average. Ryan's lower arm slot makes the pitch look like it's rising, making it especially difficult for hitters to pick up on. Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran should be staples on this list for years to come, but spots are up for grabs. Which new pitches could emerge next year? Which pitches surprised you? Can anyone take Ryan's top spot? Leave your thoughts below! View full article

What else does the machine have to say about the 2023 Twins, specifically how the pitchers will perform? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus—one of baseball's leading analysis site—released their PECOTA projections for every player in MLB. PECOTA predicts nearly everything; minor stats like holds, quality starts, and losses emanate from its crystal ball along with more crucial numbers like FIP and groundball rate. For this article, we will focus on ERA, FIP and WARP. You all know what ERA is. FIP is similar to ERA—you read it exactly the same—but it only considers walks, strikeouts, and homers. WARP is Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR. Note: These are the 50% projections, meaning each player has a coin flip’s chance of beating or falling behind their projection. I find these numbers more fascinating than the hitter ones. First, nearly every pitcher in MLB is set to beat their FIP according to PECOTA, something I don’t understand and have not found an answer for. I’d love to soliloquy about Minnesota’s excellent defense, but doing so may be incorrect. Anyways, perhaps the most surprising result is the first: Pablo López is the Twins’ best starter by a few ticks. The machine pegs him as netting the 33rd-most pitching WARP in baseball, hanging out with other quality arms like Dustin May and Chris Bassitt. Joe Ryan isn’t far behind him. PECOTA hammer home another point; the starting rotation is a quality assortment of high-floor starters—all five arms are projected to be in the top 80 of MLB by WARP—that lacks a true ace. There isn’t a black hole, however. Now we move into the bullpen. Jovani Moran earns a healthy projection, one that sees him as one of the best relief arms in the game and essentially tied with Caleb Thielbar as the second-best option for Rocco Baldelli. Emilio Pagán, everyone’s favorite punching bag, receives a hearty premonition from the machine, perhaps a sign that his underlying measurables are indeed favorable. The only notable surprise to me is Jorge López, although it makes sense that PECOTA is leery of his performance given his struggles with the Twins. To end our journey with PECOTA, a few other notable projections: Louie Varland receives a 4.01 FIP—usable, but not outstanding. The machine sees some value in both Patrick Murphy and José De León—two pitchers Minnesota signed to minor league deals—as they net 0.2 WARP projections. Note: Baseball Prospectus tinkers with PECOTA until the start of the season; these numbers were taken on February 15th and may not match future projections. Also, if you question PECOTA's value, Rob Mains wrote about how successful the machine is and where it fails. View full article

Injuries were the biggest storyline of the 2022 season for the Twins. With spring training beginning, here are the injuries to monitor as the team prepares for the 2023 campaign. Image courtesy of Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports The Twins were one of the most injured teams throughout the 2022 season. Minnesota overcame these injuries during most of the season to be at the top of the AL Central. Unfortunately, the club ran out of gas (and players) in the second half. Will the injury bug hit the Twins again in 2023? Let’s review the team’s injuries from last season and how they will impact spring training. Pitchers Jorge Alcala: Alcala landed on the injured list five days into the 2022 season with elbow inflammation. He tried to return but suffered a setback in June. In August, the Twins announced he underwent arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. Minnesota expected him to be a vital bullpen arm in 2022, so it will be interesting to see what role he can fill in 2023. He’s expected to be ready to start the season. Sonny Gray: Gray had three stints on the injured list last season, including ending the year on the shelf. He missed time in April with a hamstring injury and a pectoral strain in June. His season ended on the IL with a hamstring strain. Minnesota was out of contention, so the team had no reason to rush him back. Gray has failed to pitch more than 150 innings in all but two seasons since 2016 due to injuries. Kenta Maeda: Maeda missed the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. There was some hope he would be able to pitch in the season’s final weeks, but the Twins fell out of contention, and there was no reason to rush him back. Maeda is entering the final year of his contract, so he has a lot to prove on the mound this season. Can teams rely on him to be a starting pitcher moving forward, or is he headed to a bullpen role? Tyler Mahle: Mahle’s Twins tenure has been overshadowed by injuries. He was limited to four appearances after being acquired by the Twins. Before the trade, Mahle missed 21 days with a right shoulder strain. He came back and made two starts before being moved to the Twins. Minnesota reported that there was no structural damage to the shoulder, and the Twins worked with him on an off-season shoulder regimen. He has a chance to be the team's top pitcher if he can move past his shoulder concerns. Bailey Ober: Ober was limited to 11 appearances in 2022 and didn’t make an appearance between June 1 and September 16 because of a groin strain. Throughout his professional career, he hasn’t pitched more than the 108 1/3 innings he threw in 2021. He reached that number in 2021 between the Twins and Saints. If everyone is healthy, there’s a good chance Ober will start the year in the Triple-A rotation. It would be great if Ober can set a new a career high in innings pitched in 2023, but he hasn't been a bastion of health with the Twins. Position Players Byron Buxton: Buxton had a tremendous start to his 2022 campaign on the way to his first All-Star Game appearance. His second half was much more limited while he dealt with a right hip strain and a knee issue. In September, he underwent season-ending arthroscopic knee surgery, which the team considered a cleanup procedure. He is expected to be ready as spring training begins, but injuries have impacted much of Buxton’s career. Carlos Correa: Correa has played 136 games or more over the last two seasons, so injuries haven’t been a concern in recent seasons. However, Correa’s ankle caused two contracts to fall through this winter. He is also not participating in the World Baseball Classic, but that is tied to his wife expecting their second child in March. Different injuries have marked Correa’s big-league career, but the team will likely be taking good care of his ankle during his remaining Twins tenure. Jorge Polanco: During the 2022 season, Polanco missed time with patellar tendonitis before landing on the injured list in early September. He tried to work his way back and played in minor league rehab games before suffering a setback. Polanco should be good to go at the start of spring training, but he is certainly someone to watch. Chronic ankle injuries have also impacted him in multiple seasons. Alex Kirilloff: Kirilloff missed time the last two seasons with wrist issues. Last season, he dealt with considerable pain while swinging, and the team needed to find a long-term solution. In August, he underwent a season-ending ulnar shortening procedure that is relatively rare for professional athletes. There are a lot of unknowns with this procedure and how well a big-league hitter can recover, although Kirk Gibson is one positive example to give you hope. First base is one of the most critical spots in the team’s line-up, and the club needs Kirilloff to produce at a high level. Trevor Larnach: In late June, Larnach underwent a bilateral surgical repair to treat a core muscle strain. At the time, the team thought that he’d miss six weeks, but he never returned in 2022. During the 2021 season, his performance suffered before the Twins demoted him to Triple-A. He later revealed that a hand injury had been bothering him. When healthy, he’s shown tremendous power potential but hasn’t been able to stay on the field. Are you worried about any of these injuries? Will the Twins be healthier in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Tyler Mahle has become a bit of an afterthought when considering the team’s success in 2023. Given his season-ending injury, this may be fair. It’s easy to forget, however, that if Tyler Mahle is healthy, he could make a huge impact. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports The Twins would probably like a redo on the Tyler Mahle trade at this point given how 2022 ended up. They paid a premium for pitching help at the deadline, shipping out three solid prospects in Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar to try to hold onto first place in the AL Central. The Twins would get just 16 1/3 innings from Mahle who immediately wound up on the IL with shoulder issues. It’s impossible to argue that his stock has dropped precipitously, likely to the point where had Mahle remained in Cincinnati, an offseason trade likely wouldn’t even be on the table for teams across the league. Despite Mahle’s remaining questions on the shoulder, he still has an entire season to make good on the Twins investment. Though not what they were focused on when they acquired the right-hander last summer, 2023 could easily turn a 180 on the perception of that trade. People seem to forget that Tyler Mahle was blossoming into a very good pitcher prior to injury. Some might argue that he had already emerged as a top of the rotation option. After a few years of struggles, Mahle quietly broke out in the shortened 2020 season. In just under 50 innings pitched, he posted a near 30% K rate and a 3.59 ERA which was supported by his peripherals. His 1.1 Fangraphs WAR projected out to a 3+ win pitcher. The Twins leader by this measure in 2023 was Sonny Gray with 2.4 WAR. Mahle carried his success over to 2021, setting a career high in innings with 180 and posting a 3.75 ERA and nearing the 4 WAR mark. In 2022 Mahle got off to a rough start with an ERA over 6.00 in the first month, but was otherwise on track to finish as the same level of pitcher down the stretch. In regard to his skill set when on the mound, the Twins had good reason to pay up for him, as he’s rock solid as is and may have some untouched ceiling from his days in Cincinnati. Despite pitching in one of baseball's premier offensive stadiums, he’s been a premium starting pitcher. The big blemish in his profile has always been the longball, which should surprise no one as Cincinnati’s park has ranked top 3 in homers in each of the last three seasons. By Statcast measures, the 18 expected homers allowed by Mahle in Cincinnati’s ballpark in 2023 drops all the way down to 11 at Target Field. Not only can we expect a healthy Tyler Mahle to post a mid to high 3s ERA when he’s on the mound, it’s incredibly easy to dream of his game finding another level just by a few more fly balls staying in the park. The Twins current construction of their roster also points to further improvement in Tyler Mahle’s game. As is the case with most pitchers who allow a healthy amount of homers, a majority of balls in play off of him are hit in the air. In 2022 Mahle had a 46.8% fly ball rate. The Twins would love to see a repeat given the depth of defensive outfield options on the roster including Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Michael A. Taylor etc. Not only should Target Field keep a few more homers in the ballpark, but it’s easy to see a few more singles and extra base hits finding the glove with how the Twins have put together their outfield. It’s been interesting to see references to a solid Twins rotation with limited mention of Tyler Mahle. His end to 2022 was disappointing and left a lot of question marks, but nothing was acutely wrong with his then ailing shoulder. On one hand this could be bad news as there’s nothing specific to fix, but on the other he’s had an offseason to correct the issue and there would likely be more reason to worry had the fix been something like shoulder surgery. Mahle is certainly a risk to have a recurring injury, but why does his shoulder get so much more attention than Sonny Gray’s rash of ailments that kept him from reaching even 120 innings? Recently acquired Pablo López has an even more colorful history of shoulder injuries, and while he reached 180 innings in 2022, he noticeably was not the same pitcher in the second half as he wore down. At the very least, Mahle is on the same level skill wise as these pitchers, and it can be argued that he’s shown more consistency and has a better argument to show further improvement. The first step, as is the case with so many players on the Twins roster, is health for Tyler Mahle. If he provides us with a favorable answer, he’s going to be one of the biggest contributors to a pitching staff that desperately needs a rebound season. Do you agree? View full article

While the Twins’ 2023 rotation looks much deeper than last year’s group, many would say that they still lack a true ace on the staff. How close is Sonny Gray to being that guy? Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports Pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training next week, and all eyes are going to be on a group of arms that make up the five-man starting rotation. Sure, a lot can happen throughout the course of the spring, but the club pretty much has five names penciled in for their starting corps. If healthy, veterans Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Pablo Lopez join a rotation that will feature last year’s Opening Day starter, Joe Ryan. But the man that rounds out that group is the one that most closely resembles a frontline starter. Sonny Gray was limited to just 120 innings pitched last year, but he mostly showed the peripheral stats that offer ace-level upside when he was able to take the field. That resulted in strong surface-level marks, including a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His 2.7 BB/9 was the strongest mark in his last six seasons, and while his 8.8 K/9 was his lowest rate since 2018, he was able to get outs by allowing fewer barreled balls (78th percentile). Unfortunately, a nagging hamstring issue put Gray on the shelf at various points during the 2022 campaign, including the final three weeks of the season. If these injury woes didn’t hold him back, how close would he be to a true ace? Let’s say he remained healthy enough to keep going at the same pace in the final three weeks last year. That probably equates to about four additional appearances, not to mention his final start on September 19th when he had to leave in the third inning due to his hamstring issue. So let’s say about five additional starts. If he averaged around five innings in each of those games, he would have 25 additional innings under his belt. That puts him at just about 150 innings pitched. That seems underwhelming at first, but it is definitely a full season in today’s major-league baseball. While it’s well below the American League leader (Framber Valdez, 201 IP), it puts him in the same conversation as other starting pitcher stars such as Luis Castillo (150 1/3 IP), Zack Wheeler (153 IP), Brandon Woodruff (153 1/3 IP) and Nestor Cortes (158 1/3 IP). All four of those pitchers have made All-Star game appearances in the last two years and are considered true frontline starters despite their lower innings totals. Gray’s ERA and WHIP marks in 2022 weren’t far off from these four either. Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had? But the point remains that his performance, when healthy, was commendable. So how can Gray and the Twins make sure that he’s in a position to remain mostly healthy in his contract year? First, a regular offseason is bound to help. Due to the MLB lockout, players weren’t allowed to contact team officials from early December through February last year, and that hurt a lot of pitchers, Gray included. They couldn’t get that necessary communication with the training staff and were essentially on their own for nearly three months. Then, spring training was delayed and shortened, and Gray needed extra time to ramp up his activity. That’s not a winning combination for a veteran pitcher that has a very particular process. This year should be much more normal for Gray and the rest of the pitchers around the league. He has a normal off-season operation, a regular spring training, and not to mention, the further all pitchers get from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season the better. So with more normalcy in his pre-season routine, can his tools carry him to ace status as he enters his age-33 season? To do that, he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher with diminished velocity. His fastball averaged just 92.1 MPH last season, but he was able to rely on heavy spin rates to still use it effectively. His heater averaged 2485 RPM last season, which was the fifth-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Other names atop that leaderboard include Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Dylan Cease. If he can pair that heavy fastball with his curveball that batters only hit at a .193 clip with just a .273 slugging percentage, then he should be able to maintain his effectiveness as he ages. He can’t rely on pumping his fastball past his opponents anymore, but he can use it in an effort to get weak contact or to set up his "yacker" later in the at-bat. So yes, Gray falls short of ace status as things currently stand, but he’s not far off from being a comfortable Game 1 starter in a playoff series. At the very least, he has put himself in the same conversation as the frontline starters listed above, each of whom has a star-level reputation. What are your thoughts on what constitutes an "Ace" in today's MLB? Do you agree that Sonny Gray is probably a touch below "Ace," but would you be comfortable with him as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series? Jump in the comments and let us know your thoughts. View full article

There was a time this winter when the Minnesota Twins had to seriously ask themselves whether a rebuild made sense. They missed on some key free-agent targets, and the market was relatively bare. As the front office was again rewarded for their patience, a consistent winner has been built. We hope. Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports It would not at all be fair to suggest that patience was a key reason Carlos Correa will be a Minnesota Twin for the bulk of his prime. Certainly, that is how things worked out, but it took both the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets backing out of deals in order to make it happen. It doesn’t matter to Derek Falvey or Thad Levine, however, as both are simply ecstatic it got done. With that deal, Minnesota was able to turn the tide. Without Correa, and leaning on the likes of Kyle Farmer, it was worth wondering if impending free agents such as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, or Tyler Mahle made sense to keep around. The Twins have a solid amount of pitching prospect depth, and while none of them currently look the part of an ace, they all carry a fairly high floor. The notion that Minnesota’s front office may have needed to pivot on its strategy of competitiveness changed in an instant. With Correa, the future becomes clear. Coming off two straight losing seasons, Rocco Baldelli and the Twins are angling to again be atop the AL Central. Chicago’s offseason was not a good one, and although Andrew Benintendi was a fine signing, Mike Clevinger is looking like a non-factor. The Guardians went out and got both Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, but it remains clear that the bulk of their production will need to come from internally-developed options. For Minnesota, Correa anchors an infield that now sees both Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee turn into supplemental talents. With both being Top 100 prospects, there is plenty of reason to believe they can contribute in a big way wherever they find opportunity. Byron Buxton is here for good, and although Joey Gallo is currently on just a one-year deal, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Gilberto Celestino, and even Austin Martin all represent long-term outfield options. Jose Miranda looks the part of a fixture on the infield, and with a healthy wrist, Alex Kirilloff can be in a similar situation. Joe Ryan isn’t going anywhere in the rotation, and Pablo Lopez brings team control with him. For the first time in quite a while, the narrative isn’t about a window or a fleeting opportunity. For a front office, this should always be the goal. While winning a World Series is obviously the ultimate pinnacle, finding a way to sustain relevance is key. Attendance dipped lower than it has in decades last season, but fans will come back to the ballpark for a winner. They may immediately be mad that Luis Arraez is gone, but when the team has a lead in August, none of that will matter anymore. Before the Twins can look at putting another ring on their fingers, they’ll need to slay the giant that is the postseason losing streak. Putting themselves in a position to be a yearly participant was the goal, and it looks as though they have achieved that as a baseline. Consistency is now something that both Buxton and Correa can preach to youth, and it’s something that can be sold to free agents in the coming years. The front office will continue needing to change out parts, but that is a yearly process in baseball. The core of this roster is here to stay, and much of it looks to have talent worthy of starting on a nightly basis. It’s not as though the Twins are all of a sudden some sort of juggernaut, but the bones of the 26-man roster look better than they have in a long time. It was a weird way to get here, but Twins fans should be excited about this promise for years to come. View full article

Just because he was traded to the Twins, Pablo Lopez may already be in a position to thrive. Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports Recently, the Twins acquired Pablo Lopez plus two prospects in exchange for Luis Arraez. While the trade could be unpopular and controversial within the fanbase, Lopez adds depth to a starting rotation with multiple question marks. Looking deeper into Lopez's numbers, you might notice something out of place: he has a drastic home/away split - and not in the way you might think. Due to familiarity, weather, fans, and multiple other factors, a pitcher's stat line is often significantly improved at home. Take Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, for example: Sonny Gray Home - 67.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.4 SO/9 Away - 52 IP, 3.63 ERA, 6.8 SO/9 Joe Ryan Home - 83 IP, 3.04 ERA, 9.8 SO/9 Away - 64 IP, 4.22 ERA, 8.6 SO/9 Pablo Lopez is almost the exact opposite. Home - 87 IP, 4.55 ERA, 8.1 SO/9 Away - 93 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9 Lopez had more innings pitched, a higher ERA and WHIP, and worse strikeout and homerun numbers while playing at his home stadium. Why is this the case, and what could it mean for his time as a Twin? Baseball Savant uses multiple advanced stats to measure the differences between venues, including Park Factor, wOBACon, and BACON. Lopez’s previous home stadium, the Marlins’ loanDepot Park, ranks about average in all three. loanDepot Park ranks even lower for home runs, in the bottom third in the MLB. There is nothing out of the ordinary to suggest it inherently hurts pitchers. All of the loanDepot park factors are irrelevant now as Target Field will be his home field. Target Field favors pitchers slightly more than Miami, suggesting a slight upgrade in home-field production. But strength of schedule also appears to play a role in his reduced home numbers. Lopez played in the NL East, arguably MLB’s toughest division. At home, he faced off against NL East rivals four times, along with starts against the Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals. All the teams that Lopez made home starts against have a combined win percentage of .516. For comparison, the Baltimore Orioles have the most challenging schedule heading into 2023 with a .509 win percentage. This should be a problem no more, as the AL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball. The Twins are heading into 2023 with the third-easiest strength of schedule at .495. Instead of multiple games against the Mets and Braves, he gets multiple games against the Royals and Tigers. The Twins will play 26 home division games next year, and assuming health, Lopez will get four or five of those starts. Every team and every individual player has their weaknesses, but the Twins are lucky when it comes to Pablo Lopez because there is a simple explanation for one of his glaring issues. Lopez should already see improvements by simply playing at Target Field and in the AL Central. By the end of the season, Pablo Lopez could implement himself at the top of the rotation and become a fan favorite at his new home stadium. View full article

The Twins have what looks to be much better depth in their starting pitching department this year. Surely some of their arms that start the year in the Triple-A rotation will make an impact in the big leagues this season. So how does this group of extra starters compare to the rest of the division? While many would argue that the starting rotation that breaks camp in late March is still lacking a true bonafide ace, there’s no arguing that the Twins have a much deeper class of pitchers than in recent years. Take the 2022 season as an example. As the campaign opened, the big-league starting corps consisted of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Even with a six-man rotation, the depth was tested early on. When the calendar flipped to May, Gray, and Ober both found themselves on the IL, with Josh Winder getting the call to fill in on the now five-man rotation. Just two weeks later, Paddack succumbed to an elbow injury and was replaced by Devin Smeltzer. Just weeks after that, the Twins trotted out Cole Sands and Chi Chi Gonzalez to fill out an even more depleted staff. As you can see, things can go south rather quickly when nagging injuries rise to the surface. That’s why depth is a critical aspect of building a competitive team. And this year, the group looks much deeper on paper. Beyond their projected major-league rotation consisting of Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda, they actually have a full staff of quality starter options stashed across the river in St. Paul. Rather than relying on the likes of Smeltzer, Gonzalez, or Sands when someone in the big-league rotation goes down, the Twins are on track to have a much stronger group of replacements. This includes top prospects Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 5 on Twins Daily’s prospect rankings), Louie Varland (No. 7) and hopefully a healthy Jordan Balazovic (No. 15). It would also presumably feature Ober and Winder, two exciting young arms that have shown flashes of belonging in the MLB despite notable injuries over the last two years. They could also look at Ronny Henriquez (No. 16) and Cole Sands in the Saints’ rotation, though both finished the 2022 campaign in the bullpen and may be best suited for that role going forward. After that collection, a group of non-roster invitees could theoretically stick around depending on what opportunities present themselves at the end of spring training. This class includes Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Dereck Rodriguez. None of these are expected to be big contributors to the big league roster, but then again, neither were Gonzalez, Sands and Aaron Sanchez in 2022. Nevertheless, this year’s crop of starting pitcher options at Triple-A looks better equipped to answer the call when the time comes. But how do they compare to the rest of the AL Central? The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury? They’d be looking at the likes of Triple-A starters Xzavion Curry (their No. 23 ranked prospect according to Fangraphs), Hunter Gaddis (No. 37), and Konnor Pilkington. Each has already had a taste of MLB action, but none inspire much confidence. Other options include non-roster invitee Touki Toussaint, as well as Logan Allen (No. 4), but he would need to be added to their 40-man roster. On paper, the Chicago White Sox also have a strong MLB rotation to start the year. They’ll rely on stalwarts such as Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Cease, with Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger (maybe?) rounding out their staff, albeit with less certainty due to an extensive injury history or off-the-field issues, respectively. Long story short, they have a likely chance of needing some reinforcements early on, and that’s where things get dicey on the south side. Next in line would be Davis Martin, Jonathan Stiever, and recent waiver-claim A.J. Alexy, who was just claimed from the Twins. All three have seen MLB action, but none have the prospect pedigree to suggest a breakout is imminent. Beyond that, the Sox are pretty short-handed thanks to a depleted farm system. The Detroit Tigers have many holes in their boat as they try to stay afloat after another front-office regime change. Starting pitching depth is among their biggest challenges. Their MLB rotation will most likely consist of Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Manning, and Spencer Turnbull. That staff would look a lot stronger if it included former top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, but both are unlikely to be ready by opening day after having Tommy John and flexor tendon repair surgeries, respectively, in the second half of last year. Their Triple-A rotation will likely consist of Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske, Zach Logue, and Alex Faedo, who have each seen MLB action in the past year. After that, there really aren’t any top prospects or former big leaguers that project to be studying presences when the injury bug inevitably bites them. The Kansas City Royals may still be a few years away from competing for the division crown, but their starting rotation options are plentiful for the time being. Their opening day staff will likely consist of Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller, pushing their younger options to Triple-A. These young arms consist of mostly high draft picks, including four pitchers that were all taken in 2018 and have made their MLB debuts. This class includes Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar. Between them, they have combined for 674 innings at the MLB level, so they should be set when the time comes. As you can see from the rundown of the rest of the division, the Twins probably have the deepest starting pitcher corps even if it lacks the height seen in Cleveland or Chicago. The Royals have a similarly deep group at Triple-A, but their on-paper MLB rotation lacks the upside that can be seen in the Twins’ rotation. Does that mean the Twins are guaranteed to have the best pitching staff in the division? Absolutely not. But they are certainly better equipped to withstand a few injuries than they were last year. What do you think? Let us know in the comments whether you think the Twins’ pitching depth will be an asset or a liability this year. View full article