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The Minnesota Twins are entering the 2022 Major League Baseball offseason with somewhere between $45-65 million at their disposal just to reach last year’s payroll. With plenty of the roster penciled, how much of that can be ticketed for pitching, and who makes the most sense? Image courtesy of Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports Last season, there was hand-wringing virtually every time Rocco Baldelli took a stroll out to the mound. No matter the circumstance, it was often seen as a quick hook and undeserving for the starting pitcher to be lifted. At the end of the summer, I took a look at why short starts aren’t really just a Minnesota thing, and the greatest difference maker being the acquisition of better starters. You can expect Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Joe Ryan all to be in Pete Maki’s Opening Day rotation for 2023. What they do from there though is where this discussion begins. After opting for the likes of Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer last season, there was very little upside to the back of Minnesota’s rotation. Ryan was named the Opening Day starter despite having made just five turns in the big leagues. Bailey Ober looked the part but had been an injury concern previously, and it didn’t take long for that to manifest again in 2022. Realistically speaking, Minnesota has no room for another middling type. It’s necessary for them to go get a top-of-the-rotation arm and use the likes of Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and others as depth. So, where could that lead them? Starting with the free agent market, there are more than a few names to rule out. I don’t foresee Minnesota as a landing spot for Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw probably doesn’t ever want a new uniform. Justin Verlander has a player option, and Chris Sale continues to be unhealthy. The most logical option is probably Carlos Rodon, who the Twins were in on before he signed with the San Francisco Giants. Coming off another dominant season, and one of health, he’s in line for a payday and will have plenty of suitors. Both Noah Syndergaard and Nathan Eovaldi could fit the bill as well, though their effectiveness is questionable to varying degrees. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson, and Mike Clevinger could all also be of intrigue. Looking at the trade landscape, a team Minnesota seems to matchup well with is the Miami Marlins. If they are open to moving Pablo Lopez, it’s hard to argue that Max Kepler wouldn’t be a fit there. Maybe the Diamondbacks are willing to part with Zac Gallen (who the Marlins once traded), or the Padres could be amenable to finding someone willing to take on Blake Snell’s contract. Merrill Kelly is another Arizona arm that should draw intrigue, and if Derek Falvey wants to gamble on an aging friend, Corey Kluber may be worth a shot. Realistically, the names above all provide differing levels of expected production. What the Twins will be tasked with is deciding who they think can surpass the bar set by Sonny Gray. Maeda is a question mark coming off of Tommy John surgery, but we’ve seen him throw at a very high level previously. Mahle looks the part of a breakout star waiting to happen, and it’s no doubt part of the reason he was targeted from the Reds. Ryan has been fine, but the numbers against quality opponents are reason for concern. If he’s the 5th starter though, the quality of the rotation goes up substantially. An overhaul at the back of the bullpen can help to supplement what the Twins want to do in 2023, but the more they can rely on their starters, the better the staff as a whole will be. Even if the Twins find a way to bring Carlos Correa back on a big-time contract, they’ll have money to spend on pitching, and doing so while so much of the nucleus is in a cost-controlled situation makes plenty of sense. Falvey was brought in to develop pitching, and while we haven’t seen it in droves, there are success stories. Paying for top starters is tough, so is acquiring them, but it may be more straightforward than waiting for the next breakout to come. View full article

Just prior to Opening Day 2022 the Minnesota Twins shuffled their roster when they got together with the San Diego Padres for a trade. Over the winter, these two could again match up as partners swapping assets. Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine swung a deal with San Diego the day before Opening Day when they sent closer Taylor Rogers (and Brent Rooker) to the Bay Area in exchange for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. The former looked the part of a strong asset until he underwent Tommy John surgery early in the year, while the latter was held onto through a season of ineffectiveness. I’d assume both parties still have each others’ numbers, and with the Twins needing high-end starting pitching, it makes sense to call a team with excess in that category. Truly it’s too bad that Joe Musgrove got paid this season with the Padres. Dating back to his time with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he should’ve been one of the most coveted arms in baseball. The stuff has always been amazing and he simply needed someone to unlock it. Regardless, I digress. Both Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea will be free agents following the World Series. Both would represent an upgrade for the Twins, and either could’ve been a trade deadline target should the team have opted for it. Obviously Falvey has a substantial amount of familiarity with Clevinger due to their shared time in Cleveland, and he could be willing to reunite. Manaea was among the two pieces (alongside Frankie Montas) that Oakland was always expected to move, and they did so in early April. Money is the only thing necessary to negotiate terms with either of those two arms. Prospect capital could be used on either Yu Darvish or Blake Snell. San Diego’s depth this offseason won’t look like what it did over the summer, but maybe they’re still willing to part with one of their highly paid arms. Darvish is entering the final year of a deal he signed with the Chicago Cubs. In 2023 he’ll make $18 million, and Minnesota general manager Thad Levine is plenty familiar due to their time together with Texas. Darvish lost most of his first year with the Cubs to injuries, but has been great since then. Similar to Darvish, Snell will be entering the final year of a five-year deal he initially signed with Tampa Bay. Snell does have incentives tied to his contract, but the former Cy Young winner is set to make just $16.6 million in 2023. That number is likely well below what he’d get on the open market, and is someone the Twins could have interest in an extension with as he’ll be just 30-years-old next season. Although neither price tag will rival that of what top starters receive in 2023 on the open market, the dollar amount is enough that it should demand a prospect return. The Padres will be looking to reload following an NLCS exit in the postseason. They now have Juan Soto to lock up, and will return Fernando Tatis Jr. next season. Minnesota has ample opportunity to add top pitching talent this winter, and one of the questions they face is how they'd most like to do that. The farm system isn't loaded with elite prospects, but taking on salary could help to make quantity type trades more feasible. Money is also there to be spent, even if it's on a contract they didn't negotiate. View full article

The Oakland Athletics have three starters who’re reportedly available in trades. Does left-hander Sean Manaea offer the best value of the group? THE PLAYER The Royals picked Manaea out of Indiana State in the first round of the 2013 draft. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 66th-best prospect in baseball following a solid 2014 season. Manaea, 29, is listed at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds, an imposing presence on the mound. The Royals traded Manaea to Oakland midway through 2015 for eventual World Series Champion Ben Zobrist, who went 20-for-66 with eight doubles and two homers in the playoffs. It was a win-win trade. Manaea made an immediate impact upon his arrival to the majors in 2016. He’s been a regular mid-rotation starter for over 700 innings, posting a 3.86 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 21% strikeout rate. Manaea’s ERA+ of 113 since 2018 tops free agents Kevin Gausman (111), Robbie Ray (111), and Jon Gray (104). The lefty works with three pitches, a low-90s sinker, a plus changeup, and a slurvy curveball. Manaea’s changeup was a top-six changeup in baseball in 2021, per Statcast’s run value. Like potential pitch mix adjustments with Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas, a bump on Manaea’s current 24% changeup usage could help him miss more bats and get more outs. THE COST Maybe the most appealing factor in a Manaea trade is the cost, at least compared to Bassitt and Montas. Manaea is a lesser pitcher and projects to make the most in arbitration ($10.2 million). He’s a free agent after 2022. He’s not a frontline starter, but Manaea would become the Twins’ best pitcher and provide stability at a reasonable price. MLB Trade Simulator curiously values Manaea over Bassitt, but it’s close enough. The tool says the Twins would need to send RHP Jhoan Duran, SS Keoni Cavaco, OF Misael Urbina, RHP Drew Strotman, or trade of similar value. There’s an argument to be made that the Twins should not be seeking one-year stopgaps at the expense of high-upside prospects. They don’t have a competitive roster, and keeping as much young talent as possible is vital. On the flip side, the Twins still have plenty of solid position players, and they should receive help from top pitching prospects in 2022. A deal for Manaea (and subsequent moves) would give them a fighting chance in 2022. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article