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Quick HItter: Postseason Roster Prediction
Matthew Lenz posted a blog entry in Musings from Twins Territory
On Monday, I wrote a quick hitter on my 2019 Twins Daily Twins Awards. Now, I want to do a quick rundown of my postseason roster. Catcher: Mitch Garver, Jason Castro It'll be interesting to see how much they split time in the postseason. Both have been good this year but Garver has been better. Infielders: CJ Cron, Luis Arraez, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano With Rocco saying that Arraez is progressing better than expected, I think he'll make the roster. He may not play on Friday but I think we'll see him sometime during this series. Outfielders: Eddie Rosario, Jake Cave, Max Kepler It won't happen, but I'd love to see a guy like Ian Miller on the roster for his speed. On this roster, the Twins don't have anyone in their lineup to pinch run if they need speed on the bases. Utility/DH: Marwin Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz, Ehire Adrianza or Willians Astudillo Adrianza, Gonzalez, and Astudillo are guys who can mostly play anywhere. The health of Adrianza makes it seem like he won't be on the roster, so I think Willians gets the 25th spot. Pitchers: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Randy Dobnak, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Zack Littell, Sergio Romo, Cody Stashak, Brusader Graterol, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer, Kyle Gibson The first 11 are locks for me. Kyle Gibson, I'm not so confident in. It feels weird to not have Gibson on the postseason roster, as the most tenured Twin, but if he's not healthy and can't pitch well then he shouldn't be on the roster. It's that simple. I also wouldn't be totally against leaving Adrianza/Astudillo off the roster and adding another pitcher like Martin Perez, but with his struggles I don't think he brings as much value as an extra utility player. What does your postseason roster look like?- 2 comments
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On the season as a whole, Minnesota owns a 2-4 record and a -8 run differential against Joe Girardi’s squad. They did take the series at Target Field, but were swept on the road in September. A better road team over the full slate of games however, this group isn’t afraid to win anywhere. Without a full series, and realistically in a situation that benefits them, Minnesota will have to capitalize early and often to pull the upset. Here are a few areas for them to key on: Get to Severino- An All-Star in 2017, Luis Severino has had nothing short of an incredible year. With a 2.98 ERA and a 10.7 K/9, he’s among the best young pitchers in the game. Therein lies an opportunity as well. At 23 years old, a one-game Wild Card will be the biggest stage the youngster has ever pitched on. Going against Minnesota on September 20, he may have begun to tip his hand. Lit up for three runs on five hits in just 3.0 IP, it was his second shortest outing of the year. Across 71 pitches, he threw 35 fastballs, 28 sliders, and 8 changeups. With velocity being his game, Twins hitters were able to sit fastball, and tee off on the pitch. He didn’t give up much real hard contact, but Twins hitters were able to get decent launch angles on most of the balls they put in play. Knowing what’s behind him as far as Yankee arms go, working Severino and jumping out to an early lead is going to be a must. Score early and often- When Minnesota took the series from New York in Minnesota, it was on the backs of 4-2 and 6-1 victories. Both of those games saw the Twins score first, and neither of them ended up being a grind-it-out effort. While a one game situation allows teams to pull out all of the stops, turning it into a barnburner doesn’t favor Minnesota. On the year, Minnesota has scored the fifth most runs in MLB, and the Yankees trail only the Houston Astros. Playing for one run in any inning, especially early, is going to have the Twins beating themselves. With just 27 outs at their disposal, Paul Molitor will have to do everything he can to turn away from bunting and micro-managing the game. Realistically, the hometown nine don’t have the staying power that the Yankees do, and New York can get back into a game in a hurry (ask Bartolo Colon). Getting chunk innings, and continuing to add on will be a must for a victory. Control the pace- In the recent series with the Yankees, battery mates Ervin Santana and Jason Castro allowed New York to have their way on the bases. Knowing this same dup will be on the mound, expect Girardi to exploit whatever he saw that first go-around. Allowing New York runners to swipe extra bases is one issue, but the Twins will need to control the pace in general. The Yankees are one of the slowest playing teams in all of baseball. Being on the road already hurts momentum, but Minnesota will need to do what they can to harbor as much of it as possible. Strong defense and good at-bats can go a long way toward eventual run production. Play the percentages- Yes, the Yankees bullpen is significantly better than what the Twins have at their disposal. Minnesota will need to do what they can to avoid allowing that to make a difference. That being said, Molitor can use his best relievers to exploit Yankees hitters. There’s power up and down the New York lineup, but there is also plenty of strikeout potential. Using arms like Taylor Rogers, Ryan Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Alan Busenitz and Matt Belisle, Molitor should focus on putting opposing hitters in situations he wants them in. While not a traditional usage of a reliever, getting single outs at a time should be the goal. If there are opportunities that lend themselves to easier avenues in generating outs, take them. Over the course of a full season, a boatload of pitching changes is never going to be a welcome reality. Given the situation however, pulling out all of the stops is a must. Ideally, Ervin Santana throws a complete game shutout, but if and when he doesn’t, don’t be afraid to have an early hook. Entering Yankee Stadium, the Twins are playing with house money. This collection was not supposed to be here, and they won’t be favored at any point from here on out. While you can embrace the underdog narrative, the reality is that this group has the ability to make waves. They’ve shown that throughout the regular season, and whether it be a one-game playoff with the Yankees, or a full series with the Indians, any opponent welcoming this contingent with open arms is opening themselves up for disappointment.
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Yesterday the Minnesota Twins finally got the trade done for Jaime Garcia. The Braves traded Jaime Garcia and catcher Anthony Recker to the Minnesota Twins for 19 year old right hander, Huascar Ynoa. The Braves got a 19-year old pitcher who they obviously liked and want him to be on the team once they are out of the rebuild stage. The Twins acquired Recker and of course Garcia. Anthony Recker is a catcher who has been in four organizations including Oakland, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, and Atlanta. This year in the big leagues he is just 1-7 in six games. Recker would be a good backup catcher to Castro up in the show. Jaime Garcia was already rumored seriously last week for being traded to Minnesota, but that trade fell through because the Atlanta front office had a medical problem with the prospect that Minnesota was proposing them. Then, there were reports about some other teams getting in on Garcia, but yesterday the Braves finally liked the prospect Minnesota proposed, Huascar Ynoa, and they made the deal to give Garcia and Recker to Minnesota. Garcia on the year has pitched in 18 games, has a record of 4-7, and a 4.30 ERA in 113 innings pitched. Last Friday Garcia went seven innings, gave up seven hits, three earned runs, one walk, and struck out four. On the hitting side, he hit his first grand slam in his last game as a National League pitcher. So, as the Twins made this deal, the Kansas City Royals sent Travis Wood, Matt Strahm, and 18 year old infielder Esteury Ruiz to San Diego for pitchers Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter, and Brandon Maurer. This was very important for Minnesota to get a solid pitcher since the Royals just got three pitchers. After the loss to the Dodgers last night, they drop back even more in the division to 3.5 games after Cleveland and Kansas City won last night. I believe this Jaime Garcia trade can get the twins a win every five days and hopefully get the Twins a division win or at least the second wild card spot.
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I’m trying to be realistic. Our expectations in that clubhouse should be to make the postseason. — Twins GM Terry Ryan, 11/4/14 The Minnesota Twins set the tone shortly after hiring Paul Molitor as Ron Gardenhire’s successor. Molitor came out and said that he wanted to win immediately, general manager Terry Ryan said that he expected the team to make the postseason: This after four-straight 90-loss seasons, but before the signing of Ervin Santana and Torii Hunter. “I’m coming here to win,” said Molitor back in November. “I think that it’s very important to lay that out there, right from the start.” Halfway through the season it looked like the postseason was a distinct possibility. The Twins entered the All-Star Break at 49-40, sending Glen Perkins and Brian Dozier to represent the team in Cincinnati. Perkins, a converted starter who was perfect in save situations up until that point, and Dozier, a converted shortstop who has been immaculate in the field and productive as the team’s leadoff man, were two shining examples of the Twins’ patience in developing prospects and adjusting on the fly. Additionally, Trevor Plouffe was mashing at the plate and handling the hot corner with ease, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario and Torii Hunter had shored up the outfield, and the pitching staff — led by, ahem, Mike Pelfrey — was holding their own. The fact that Joe Mauer’s slow start was overshadowed by the team’s overall success told you everything you needed to know about the Twins up until that point. It was obvious at the trade deadline that Minnesota had to shore up a bullpen that was relying on Aaron Thompson, who had been sent down after two strong months, and a slew of other pitchers on the wrong side of 30 — Brian Duensing, Blaine Boyer and Casey Fien — to get by up until that point. Kurt Suzuki had regressed from his All-Star status last year, hitting .230 and having trouble throwing out runners and blocking stray pitches, and the shortstop position was held together by a rotating cast of characters — Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana. Still, the Twins had built a buffer between themselves and the rest of the AL, and if they got off to a good start to the second half, they might have even been able to challenge the Kansas City Royals for the division lead. Instead of potentially vying for the AL Central title, the Twins now are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs, losing six series (and splitting one) since the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays revamped their roster by adding David Price and Troy Tulowitzki at the deadline and are now chasing the New York Yankees for the AL East crown. The Houston Astros are driving Twins fans mad, as they were similarly awful along the same timeline as Minnesota, but were declared future World Series champs by Sports Illustrated. They appear to be unfazed by the magazine’s hex, however, adding Scott Kazmir and Carlos Gomez at the deadline in an attempt to stave off Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the AL West. Even the Texas Rangers made a splash, acquiring Cole Hamels from the Philadelphia Phillies. With the Baltimore Orioles also in the mix for a Wild Card spot following a strong start to the second half, the Twins suddenly are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture. They relinquished their Wild Card spot during their series in Toronto, which was infuriating to fans who watched the Blue Jays beef up their roster while the Twins made a relatively minor deal to get Kevin Jepsen, a decent reliever. But it wasn’t just the Jays who have turned Minnesota into a .500 team: The A’s beat them 14-1, the Angles 7-0, the Yankees 7-2, the Pirates 10-4, the Mariners 6-1, the Jays 9-3, the Indians 17-4 — essentially a route per series. And that’s not including New York coming from behind to win after being down 5-0 in Game 2 of that series — a possible turning point in the season — or Minnesota losing 8-1 in Cleveland on Sunday. After that 17-4 loss, in which the Twins resorted to using Shane Robinson as a reliever despite a nine-man bullpen, many fans and pundits pronounced the team dead (including Cold Omaha’s Sam Ekstrom on The Wake Up Call). Depending on who you ask, Minnesota is either wasting money or not spending enough of it. In truth, the Twins were smart not to sell the farm at the deadline, allowing the team to keep its window of success open longer by not acting shortsightedly. Jose Berrios and Byron Buxton still have something to offer to this club, even if they are not a shortstop or catcher. And, really, Alex Meyer could provide a valuable arm in the pen next year even if at one point he was projected to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. When it comes to the bullpen, player development is holding back the Twins. Everyone knew that Duensing and Fien were aging last year, and Blaine Boyer, 34, was not a long-term solution. Hope resided in prospects like Nick Burdi, Zach Jones and, to a lesser extent, Tyler Jay. All three are in their 20s, all three have stuff, but none are close to surfacing as a major leaguer. Lester Oliveros, the player to be named later in the Delmon Young trade, is 27 but hasn’t pitched in the majors this year, and Michael Tonkin, a 30th round pick in 2008, has been given opportunity, but never stuck. At the major league level, Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham will likely factor into the bullpen equation in the future, given that they have stuff and are in the prime of their careers, but both need to prove they can be reliable in high-leverage situations. Ryan O’Rourke is a lefty-killer who could become a value pick (13th round, 2010), as could A.J. Achter (46th round, 2010) if they can stick in the majors. All four players are in their mid-20’s. Perkins, 32, likely will be the exception to the rule in that he should pitch well into his 30’s, and appears to be getting out the rut he was in following the All-Star Break. While the bullpen should be able to be fixed internally, the Twins will likely have to go outside the organization to fill their need at catcher. Josmil Pinto is battling concussion symptoms and wasn’t a great defensive player to begin with. Chris Herrmann has shown flashes, but hasn’t been consistent enough to challenge for the starting job, and Suzuki has regressed — likely due, at least in part, to the heavy beating he’s taken at that position over the years. Minnesota could build support in the offseason by acquiring Matt Wieters, the Orioles catcher who likely will be available in free agency, but offering a large contract to a 6-foot-5, 29-year-old catcher runs the same risk they had with Mauer — he gets hurt or wears down and ends up at first base for the last half of the deal. The Twins may have to take that risk, however, given that the second-best catching prospect in the organization, outside of Pinto, is Mitch Garver: a 24 year old in High-A. Whether or not the shortstop solution comes from within the organization is up for debate. Minnesota appears to be grooming Jorge Polanco for the position, but whether or not he will stick at shortstop is up for debate. “That will be up to him,” says Ryan. “A done deal? Well, we thought Plouffe was a done deal once, and we thought Cuddyer was a done deal once. You know it’s up to the player: Can you handle it or can you not?” If Polanco doesn’t end up being a major league shortstop — a la Dozier and Plouffe — in the near future, Minnesota will end up having to go to the outside for that position, too. There’s always an outside chance that Nunez, Escobar or Santana make a second-half surge, but given the amount of playing time they’ve had and the fact that none of them has taken over a spot that’s clearly up for grabs, that seems unlikely. The pitching staff has struggled lately, but Minnesota can’t afford to use more resources there. Pelfrey will likely be off the books next year, and the team must hold out hope that Nolasco will be better when healthy. Trevor May should be back in the rotation, and Berrios hopefully will challenge for a spot — creating a culture of competition that should be good for the rest of the players on the staff. As far as whether or not this season will be deemed a success, playoff berth or not, that’s probably best judged in the years to come. As much as Twins fans have become impatient after four 90-loss seasons — and reasonably so — there’s reason to believe that the best has yet to come. The pitching staff isn’t this bad. The outfield is suddenly stacked. There’s young arms to replenish the bullpen. The Twins constantly claim that money is not an issue, which should mean they’ll invest in a catcher, at the very least, in the offseason. Mauer’s inability to catch will become overlooked if the team is winning, he’s productive with the bat, and there’s a premier free agent to help out behind the plate. Keep in mind, most people that follow the Twins thought this would be a 75-win season. It was a logical conclusion, one that would show the team was moving in the right direction. Instead they’ve increased expectations — not a bad thing by any means — and must live up to them. Because even though 75 wins is an improvement from where the Twins were, the goal, as always, should be to play meaningful games throughout the year. “As everybody in this game should be pointing towards the playoffs, we are too,” Ryan said back in November. “I expect to get into the playoffs every year. Why [else] should we take the diamond?” This article was originally published on the Cold Omaha section of 105TheTicket.com. Follow Tom on Twitter @tschreier3.
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