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Now just a week from Opening Day most Major League Baseball clubs have their 40 man rosters set and are working through their final cuts before kicking off the regular season. Although we don’t have Opening Day on its original scheduled time, a full 162-game season following the lockout is as good as it gets. The Atlanta Braves are looking to repeat as World Series Champions, but they will be doing so with some new faces after letting franchise favorite Freddie Freeman walk. The American League will certainly be out to recapture the trophy, and there’s a ton of new talent being thrust into the highest level. You can look back at my 2021 picks here. A dark horse MVP candidate wound up taking the crown, and it was good to see Bryce Harper pick up his second iteration of that award. Here’s what I have for 2022. MVP: American League – Luis Robert (Dark Horse Byron Buxton) National League – Juan Soto (Dark Horse Manny Machado) Maybe Robert is a post-hype type player, but he’s far too much of an afterthought with just two seasons in the big leagues. Robert played just 68 games last year for the White Sox, but the 24-year-old posted a .946 OPS. He has the complete package of speed, power, and athleticism to make an impact all over the diamond. The strikeout rates are still ugly, but he makes enough hard hit contact to generate a strong average. Chicago should again be good, and that puts him in a good spot. Byron Buxton is going to be healthy this year if I have to manifest it into existence. Should that happen, he’ll find himself squarely in the conversation. He began 2021 on a ridiculous pace and was only overshadowed by Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Betting on himself in his new extension, that paying off early would be nice to see. On the National League side it really feels like the MVP is Juan Soto’s to lose. He’s an otherworldly talent that hits for average and power while having a great eye. I don’t think the Nationals are going to be very good this season, but if Nelson Cruz has any positive impact on the youngster allowing him to take his game up a notch, that’s pretty scary. It’d also be somewhat of a nice development to see Manny Machado step up in a big way for the Padres with Fernando Tatis Jr. out to start the season. He’s been close to an MVP award previously, and maybe this winds up being the year. Cy Young: American League – Shohei Ohtani (Dark Horse Luis Severino) National League – Max Scherzer (Dark Horse Logan Webb) If there’s a way to follow up an MVP award after putting up the best individual season baseball has ever seen, Shohei Ohtani could grab a Cy Young as an encore. The greatest thing working against him will always be the amount of starts he makes. That said, another year of learning the league, I think this could be his true breakout on the mound. Another step forward and he’ll be in the conversation with Gerrit Cole as the best pitcher in the American League. Speaking of Cole, his teammate Luis Severino looked to have elite stuff prior to dealing with injuries since 2019. If he’s at all healthy, I wouldn’t be shocked to see that play again. Max Scherzer jumps teams within the division, but now he’s in a place that’s willing to spend big. Paired with Jacob deGrom, the Mets have the best one-two punch in baseball. New York should be a very good team, and those two arms are going to do the heavy lifting. It’s been a few years since Scherzer won a Cy Young, and maybe he tired a bit in the postseason last year, but I think he shows well for his new club. San Francisco Giants star Logan Webb is an intriguing choice here. He’s not far down the list of odds, but may be somewhat of an afterthought. The Giants probably won’t be as good this season, but Webb could take another step forward as he cements himself as a legitimate ace. His FIP was sub 3.00 last season and the strikeout numbers are there. It wouldn’t shock me if he puts up a head-turning performance. Rookie of the Year: American League – Bobby Witt Jr. (Dark Horse Julio Rodriguez) National League – Hunter Greene (Dark Horse Max Meyer) It’s hard to go against the Royals superstar prospect Bobby Witt Jr. He’s going to make the Opening Day roster and looks like someone that should be an impact player from day one. Kansas City won’t be good, but they shouldn’t be terrible either. The highlight reel play on both sides of the ball are impressive, and he should be fun to watch from within the division. Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez may also be in the conversation, but that will largely depend on how much runway he’s given this season. Once considered among the best draft prospects ever, Hunter Greene’s debut should finally come in 2022. The Reds rotation has arms that need to still be moved, but Greene should see plenty of action for a team that’s clearly not trying. His stuff is going to play, and the triple-digit fastball is going to be fun to watch. If the Marlins promote Max Meyer with any amount of longevity destined for this season, he too could be in the running. Postseason: American League – Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays, Twins National League – Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies ALCS – Blue Jays over Rays NLCS – Phillies over Braves World Series – Phillies over Blue Jays Toronto had a stellar offseason adding Kevin Gausman and Matt Chapman. Already having a strong rotation and top talents like Jose Berrios and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it’s hard not to see them as the juggernaut in a competitive American League East. They picked up depth talents as well, and we’re already trending towards being among the best teams in baseball. I’d be far from surprised if they finish with the best record in the American League. On the other side, I think the Phillies give themselves a nice chance to play spoiler as somewhat of an underdog. The Braves and Mets are seen as the best in the division, but Philadelphia shouldn’t be far behind. Castellanos and Schwarber are two big bats, and the addition of the designated hitter hides the latter from playing the field. Bryce Harper is still the reigning MVP winner, and adding what they did to a formerly bad bullpen should help a lot. We’re so close to regular season action in a season that should bring the return of normalcy. It’s time to settle in for the fun. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

11 1/2 game lead is huge, losing it by August 10 is terrifying. True, we have time left and Cruz will come back and maybe Buxton too. Jack Cave might be replaced by someone who can do better in MLB from our minor leagues and maybe we will strike gold with one or two pitchers as we allow the entire minor league system to audition for us this year, but still 11.5 games! That is a lead worthy of 7 percent of the season. So come on Twins. Beat the bad teams. I think most have given up on beat the good teams and get into the playoffs where, I am sorry to say, you will only be playing good teams. Do you remember the 1969 Cubs 4.5 games up going into September and then winning just 1/3rd of their games to finish 8 behind the miracle Mets? I know NY had a great year, but poor Chicago. By the way they had 4 players on that team go to the HOF. Or our old manager Gene Mauch and his 1964 team? They led by 6 1/2 games with 12 to play. They had Dick Allen and HOF Jim Bunning. They lost 10 Straight and St Louis went to the series! That hurts. Tied for the lead on the last day of the season the 2007 Mets blew the pennant and the Phillies won. The Mets had Pedro and Glavine in their rotation but went 1 - 6 to finish the season. Then in 2008 they fired their manager part way through the year and had a 3 1/2 game lead with 17 games to go. But losing 10 of 17 is not the way to the World Series. The 1951 Dodgers had one of the saddest losses - the NY Giants steam rolled right over them with a 37 - 7 ending to the season to tie and a playoff with the home run heard around the world and still being played every year. The Dodgers had been up 13.5 on August 11! Yes that is tomorrow. And then they went to the playoff game - one game to decide and lead 4 - 1 going into the ninth. Ralph Branca - not a bad pitcher - against Dale Long - not a great hitter - and a three run home run destroyed the Dodger's year. Lets enjoy 2009, the year the Tigers led by 7 games on September 6 over the MINNESOTA TWINS. We won 10 of 11 and Alexi Casilla put us in the playoffs! In 1978 the Red Sox led by 9 over the Brewers and 14 over the Yankees on July 19th. The Yankees went 52 - 21 and into a playoff. Anyone heard of Bucky Dent? Well the Red Sox fans will never forget him as he ripped the hearts out the Boston team. 2011 the Red Sox again were leading by 9 games over the Rays on September 1 and then played a 7 - 20 final month and lost the pennant to Tampa Bay. 1995 the Angels, who have been a playoff deprived team, led by a familiar 11.5 on August 9 and then the wheels fell off. going 12 - 27 and were put out of the misery by Randy Johnson in a one-game playoff. 1998 they had a 3 1/2-game lead in the division with 19 to play and lost 13 of their last 19. In 1987 the Blue Jays held a 3.5 game lead with 7 to go and could not win another game. The Tigers went to the playoffs. Where they would face the Twins. 2003 the Mariners had the best record in baseball, but (does this sound familiar?) they played just under 500 ball for the rest of the season and took the off season off. The 2010 Padres had a last half season collapse and after having just one three-game losing streak all season, the Padres proceeded to drop 10 straight. (Sounds too close to home). With a 6 1/2 game lead on August 25 they came the closest that the poor team could come to Post Season and watched Arizona go to the series. There are more where these came from. Painful I know but that is baseball. Let's go Twins - this is a list I do not want you to be on.

On Monday morning the legendary career of Minnesota Twins great Joe Mauer came to an end. While it's obvious that his exploits behind the dish were far superior to what he did at first base, the reality for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine is that they now have a hole in their infield. Heading into free agency the first base market is pretty ugly, but a familiar name could make a ton of sense. Last winter Carlos Santana signed a three-year, $60 million pact with the Philadelphia Phillies. Now according to Ken Rosenthal, they are "shopping the hell" out of their newly acquired first basemen. Of course the optics of such a move don't look great for the Phillies, but there's much more to it than meets the eye. Everything boils down to the fact that Rhys Hoskins is a bonafide stud, but he cannot play in the outfield. Serving as the regular left fielder last season he was worth an abysmal -24 DRS. The best configuration for Gabe Kapler's squad has the young star back at first base. For the Twins (and any other suitors) there's somewhat of a perfect storm brewing. Santana had a down year in 2018 (not terrible however), and his team is motivated to move him before the start of the 2019 season. With those two factors at play it'd be fair to assume that leverage may be on the side of the acquiring ballclub. At 33 next year, Santana is owed $20.3MM with a $20.8MM commitment in 2020. There's a $17.5MM team option for 2021 but the buyout is a measly $500k. For teams interested in corner infield help, Carlos Santana at two-years and $40 million doesn't sound like a bad ask. Trading prospects and taking on the deal though, you're probably looking at asking the Phillies to eat something in the range of $10 million. Right now you'd like to believe that the Minnesota Twins have Miguel Sano inked at third base to open 2019. A position change across the diamond could be in the not-so-distant future, but keeping him in his current role as long as possible is the most optimal scenario. As he transitions across the diamond though, a sort of mentor could be a great addition to the process. Santana has dabbled at third base in both 2014 and last year. He knows the position well enough to understand Sano's process, and Carlos has been a league-average at worst first basemen since coming out from behind the plate. Offensively there isn't a box that Santana doesn't check for the Twins. Sure he had a down 2018, but even that included a respectable .766 OPS. In his final two seasons with Cleveland (yes, not the Falvey connection) Santana owned an .842 OPS. He has a career .363 OBP and has routinely split walks and strikeouts at the dish. With three straight seasons of at least 23 homers the ability to lose the ball in the seats is also present. Of course the best ability is availability, and Santana has been incredibly reliable as a big leaguer. Dating back to 2011, he's played in no less than 143 games and has gotten in 152-plus in all but one of those seasons. Despite playing Gold Glove caliber defense at first base dating back to his positional change, Mauer's greatest detraction on the right corner was the ability to hit for power. Santana brings that to the table, combining his efforts with Sano on the other side. Minnesota's lineup also needs an infusion of on-base ability as Joe (and likely Robbie Grossman) has been subtracted from the mix. On paper this is certainly a perfect fit. According to 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson, Santana is "on their radar" and that's a great sign for Twins fans. While the Phillies are motivated to move him, this is a team considered front-runners for one (or both) of Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. They aren't going to take pennies on the dollar and Carlos' services will be coveted by more than a few clubs. If there's a deal to be made in Minnesota this offseason involving prospects however, this is the one I'd like to see get done. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz