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It’s the most beautiful time of the year! PECOTA projections are out, and they’re bullish on a particular Twins starting pitcher. It’s essential to mention right off the bat: your expectations for Joe Ryan should remain in the third or fourth starter range. He’s thrown a total of 26 ⅔ innings in the majors, and it’s unfair to expect the same production as the first four starts of his career. Even then, there’s plenty of reason to be excited about the 25-year-old, invisiball-throwing vibe machine. Ryan looks ready to step right into the Twins’ rotation, and at this point, he’s likely to start on Opening Day in Chicago. Many are hesitant to put much stock into PECOTA projections from the esteemed crew at Baseball Prospectus. The system projects the seasons of over 1,600 players, so there are bound to be errors. The projections can be wacky, unpredictable, and, yes, extremely exciting. PECOTA projects Ryan to throw 143 innings with a 2.87 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 2022. They peg him for 2.5 WARP, tied for 20th and ahead of José Berríos, Frankie Montas, Freddy Peralta, and Lucas Giolito. DRA- (deserved run average) is a statistic that measures the rate a pitcher expects to give up runs. PECOTA projects Ryan for a better DRA- than Lance Lynn, Sandy Alcantara, and Shohei Ohtani. The system essentially projects Ryan to be a frontline starter in 2022. Pointing out the gaudy projections for Ryan isn’t an attempt to put lipstick on the pig that is the Twins rotation. On the contrary, this is more reason to win in 2022 with actual, impact moves for starting pitching. If the Twins still had Berríos, the outlook would be incredibly different. They don’t, though, and they need to acquire someone on his level to compete in an improving division. Even if Ryan somehow matches these excellent numbers, the rest of the rotation isn’t strong enough to support them. PECOTA also likes Bailey Ober as a solid mid-rotation starter, projecting him for a 3.57 ERA, 3.81 FIP, and a better-than-average DRA- in 124 innings. The Twins have a base to work from, even if it’s not entirely sturdy. Will they add enough to make it matter? What do you think of Ryan’s PECOTA projections? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article

Today marked the unveiling of PECOTA’s standings projection from Baseball Prospectus. For the Minnesota Twins, things are looking great as the system sees 91 wins and a third straight AL Central division title. There are definitely some noteworthy revelations, however. Of course, as Twins fans, the hometown club appearing atop the division once again is the most exciting development. 91 wins seems conservative in a division that should really be a two-team race, but PECOTA doesn’t see the breakdown working quite like that. Despite all of the fanfare, the projection system has the Chicago White Sox finishing third in the division and winning just 83 games. From my vantage point, the White Sox coming in anywhere lower than second seems like quite the shock. Cleveland dealt away Francisco Lindor, should do the same with Jose Ramirez, and despite a stellar pitching staff, have little else to hang their hats on. The White Sox certainly could be primed for some regression though. They burst onto the scene a year ago, but the season was just a 60-game sample size. Looking back to the 2017 Twins, there was a Postseason appearance prior to a backwards slide that then set them up for the current run. Trying to make some sense of what PECOTA may be seeing, I looked at the added WAR for Minnesota and Chicago through the lens of ZiPS from Fangraphs. Chicago has added just 6.5 fWAR while the Twins tacked on a tally of 7.2 fWAR. That’s largely a reflection of where both clubs added. The White Sox needed help in the outfield but responded with just Adam Eaton and Adam Engel. Lance Lynn is a solid addition if he keeps down the path of recent success, but even as good as Liam Hendriks is, Alex Colome was already stellar a year ago and a single reliever has just minimal impact. Both Nelson Cruz and Andrelton Simmons are seen as substantial additions for Minnesota, while J.A. Happ should be considered a steadying presence. Even without the distaste for Chicago clouding my view, I still find it hard to believe that club will finish below Cleveland. I’ve written in this space that I’d hardly be shocked if the Royals end up third in the division, and for now I’m going to stick to that. Projection systems or otherwise, you can bet the South Side fanbase won’t take kindly to what will be viewed as disrespect. One other area of note within PECOTA is the projection for the NL Central. That division is expected to be a dumpster fire, and the Milwaukee Brewers are slated to win it with just 88 wins. It’s worth making a note of considering the Central will serve as the interleague foe for Minnesota in 2021. Despite the regionalized schedule a year ago, the Twins face the same grouping of opponents in the National League. Being able to face off against a division that’s largely not trying should only provide additional opportunity to add tallies in the win column. We’ll have to take a look back on these standings come October when the dust settles. Right now, though, another Twins division title and some shade towards the South Side is more than good with me. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Today we received the highly anticipated PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus. Put out around this time each year, they are the gold standard among projection systems when it comes to putting a number to teams' win totals. Often there’s an organization or two that feels scorned, but Minnesota is sitting pretty heading into 2020.It should be expected that the Twins would be seen as the odds-on favorite to repeat in the AL Central division. After winnings 101 games a year ago, they got better this offseason and widened the talent gap between themselves and the Cleveland Indians. Although the White Sox were the darlings of the winter, it is expected that they still have a ways to go. Download attachment: Capture.PNG PECOTA sees the AL Central winner crossing the finish line with 93 victories. That would give them a seven-game advantage over the Indians, which is just one game less than they won the division by a year ago. It’s the White Sox that understandably see the largest boost in winning, and while bad, both the Royals and Tigers cross the 60-win threshold. With projection systems it’s important to understand that these values are derived using an algorithm and are produced utilizing multiple inputs. Specifically, for PECOTA, there are three elements to consider. From Baseball Prospectus, you have: • Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors. • Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level. • A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time. In general, that means there’s an assumed amount of variability. The Twins winning the division with 93 wins would be the 50th percentile of their outcomes. As evidenced by the bell curves below, a 100th percentile would have them somewhere near a franchise record of 105 wins. We can also see that it’s both the Indians and White Sox that have the largest amount of volatility on the positive sides of their outcomes. Download attachment: Curve.PNG Relative to the American League as a whole, it’s clear Minnesota is viewed favorably. Trailing only the Yankees (99) and Astros (98), they are on the heels of the best teams in baseball. The National League is understandably looked down upon as a whole. Los Angeles checks in with 103 wins while no other division winner is seen capable of reaching 90. Considering the narrow range of expectations among clubs in both the NL East and Central, it’s fair to believe that no one may run away from the pack. As far as getting to the postseason is concerned, the Twins are given 89.2% odds in that department. PECOTA projected the Twins for 81 wins going into 2019, and the 20 additional they produced on top of that would have advanced beyond their 100th percentile expectation. In short, they are certainly being viewed in a positive light earned through positive performance. Again, these are just projections and using them as hard and fast outcomes doesn’t seem wise. However, if the Twins are to win the division (and they likely will), surpassing that 93-win threshold is a pretty decent bet. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have provided some great pieces for Rocco Baldelli and his staff. The team capitalized on their abilities last year and doing so again should bear more fruit. *Concerning projections totaling 103 games, Baseball Prospectus noted a glitch and the results remaining incorrect due to a caching issue. The win totals are accurate. Full game totals are derived by taking 162 games and subtracting the win column to come up with record. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article